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Comments on news posted 2012-01-27 17:31:20: Anybody who warns of an unavoidable capacity crisis on wireline or wireless networks is lying in order to sell you something. ..

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88615298
Premium
join:2004-07-28
West Tenness
reply to battleop

Re: Spectrum crunch: not a problem today, but eventually

said by battleop:

That can be done but equipment, towers, and engineers are not cheap.

Us customers are in fact giving these companies tons of money. In the old days companies use to take profit and reinvest it to grow the company. Today that seems to be a dirty word.

BiggA

join:2005-11-23
EARTH
reply to trparky

Re: there already is a problem

Even with LTE-advanced, no one knows how the network will hold up. The data consumption just keeps going up and up and up... Probably better than EVDO, but still... even with LTE, all the carriers are going to have to add a ton of sites, as well as DAS systems, to keep up with capacity demand.


trparky
Apple... YUM
Premium,MVM
join:2000-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:2
Data growth isn't going up as fast as some people would like you to believe. The whole Exabyte Boogieman was scare tactics to make you think that your usage needs to be capped.

There was an article that was posted on this very site's front page that said that even with modest network upgrades there would be enough capacity to go around.
--
Tom
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BiggA

join:2005-11-23
EARTH
They are growing massively. The numbers don't lie. Unless growth is going to magically just stop tomorrow? I think a lot of the numbers actually underestimate it, as audio streaming is catching on among smartphone users, and that is an exponential jump above web, email, and pictures.


bbeesley
VIP
join:2003-08-07
Richardson, TX
kudos:5
reply to N3OGH

Re: Comcast and ATT worst offenders

said by N3OGH:

Given the national data backbone is upgradable by switching out the gear at either end of the fiber runs

That is an oversimplification.

Changing out even just the interface cards is really, really....REALLY expensive.

Say you are a service provider with 5 or 6 40G links between two cities. Your capacity has filled up because of stuff like over the top video and cloud access that you make no money on - you didn't get new customers and you don't have a new product line to generate revenue - but you still have to upgrade your backbone because you have to provide a consistent level of service so you decide to upgrade the links to a have 100G capacity...so 5 or 6 100G transponders at each end at around $100k and you just spent about $1.2 million!...

But wait, that's not all!...

Those runs are too long to not have ILAs or Regens and you have to upgrade their interfaces too....let's call it an even $5million at this point to make the math simple....and that's just one leg...if you are a backbone provider you probably have dozens of those to upgrade at the same time.

Great business to be in where you have to spend millions just to satisfy the existing revenue you are pulling in and there isn't any new money to pay for it.

I am not suggesting that caps or price increases are something I want as a user but to not recognize that their is a very real economic challenge to overcome here is naive and one sided


DataRiker
Premium
join:2002-05-19
00000
reply to JohnInSJ

Re: so, Karl... when are you going to offer unlimited broadband

I used to pay 26 dollars for unlimited cable internet from COX.

Capacity is much cheaper today and much more plentiful yet now the price is 45+ dollars for the same connection with caps.

Nelson469

join:2009-11-20
Palmer, AK

Bandwidth Crisis? LOL

Sometime ago, I used to have DSL. It was speedy for what I was paying for and the location I was in (Alaska). I did a lot of online gaming and noticed I was running into serious lag and unable to connect to a server in Oregon.

I fired up Visual Route to see where the problem was and who's problem was it. The DSL provider was a cheap ass and had their POP (point of presence) in some little town in Connecticut, not in Seattle where it should have been. Next indicator of a low grade pipe was how the connection was bounced across the United States 2-3 times before reaching it's destination. A nice feature in VR is being able to poll a suspect router for ownership, point of contact phone number and email address. The POP router was owned by AT&T and I promptly contacted them for an explanation. It seemed my local provider was over selling their service and didn't bother to upgrade the pipe to keep up with demand. The local provider kept throwing the excuse of "we'll put a trouble ticket in". I called my local provider again to give them a chance to upgrade and got the same excuse. I told the local provider that I talked with their long haul data provider and told them they were bullsh*itting with the trouble ticket excuse. There was a long pause, then I told the local provider the next action would be a long letter and printouts of evidence to back up my claims to the public utilities commission. It took them a week to get this challenge rectified.

rradina

join:2000-08-08
Chesterfield, MO

1 recommendation

reply to tschmidt

Re: ipv4 vs 6

Obvious? That depends. Unless all of those devices need to accept unsolicited inbound communications, PAT enables 192.168.1.1 to be used by billions of devices. In fact, I'll bet with most routers default setup using the 192.168 class-b, there are already many millions if not billions of devices completely unaware of the address crunch.

I'm certainly pro IPV6 and there are real challenges with IPV4 but I don't think multiplying the world's population by n devices is the best way to convince folks of why IPV6 is important.

rradina

join:2000-08-08
Chesterfield, MO

1 recommendation

reply to bbeesley

Re: Comcast and ATT worst offenders

You do these things to keep customers and retain the margin you have. Just because an ISP has built a network doesn't mean they can just sit around and print money.

I wish I could convince my employer that since I've completed what I consider enough projects that they now owe me a liftetime salary.

If anyone has a job like this or runs a business like this, please enlighten me.

I was flipping channels the other night and paused on the Weather Channel (mainly because the reporter was someone who I find very attractive). It was a program about a new kind of "sand bag" that uses (I think) the same moisture absorbing stuff that's in feminine hygiene products and diapers. When they get wet, they expand to many times their former size. Hundreds of bags can quickly be deployed without any back-breaking labor. You can either wait for the rising water to expand the bags or take a garden hose and "activate" the bags. I was dumbfounded how simple the idea is and how effective it is to enable folks to easily buy, transport and RAPIDLY deploy flood barriers. Someone is pure genius.

They also showed large tubes much like the ones that corral oil on water except the tubes were filled with water. Instant dam.

These are examples of why we just can't sit on our rears and print money. Things change and it's natural to invest in your business to make sure it keeps pace with what your customers demand. Isn't this business 101?

davidhoffman
Premium
join:2009-11-19
Warner Robins, GA
kudos:3
reply to tmc8080
Try using WiFi at 80mph on an Interstate Highway, 60 mph on your local parkway, or even 40 mph on city streets. You cannot do it yet. That is one reason we pay extra for cellular data plans, so we can really get information on the go.

davidhoffman
Premium
join:2009-11-19
Warner Robins, GA
kudos:3
reply to Sammer

Re: Spectrum is finite

But the HD content is usually not produced by the local OTA broadcaster. The big OTA networks could, in theory, stop supplying OTA with content and send it directly to the cable system operators. It might require a few more satellite dishes to get the content at the head end, but it is theoretically feasible. There has been for years a group of people at the FCC and in Congress who want OTA to be turned into pay TV either through cable or satellite or cellular. And the cellular companies are using internet access as a way to shut down OTA so they can create a new pay TV system using cellular systems and revenue models.

Take Action

I am horrified at the idea of bandwidth capping, as not only do I believe that it stifles the growth of modern media (i.e., the cloud, Netflix, radio streaming), but that if taken to extremes, it could even stifle one's freedom to information, particularly in a democracy. I have decided to take action against ISPs who cap their bandwidth by starting a petition on Change.org. Please take a look at it at: »www.change.org/petitions/stop-data-capping


Paladin
Sage of the light

join:2001-08-17
Chester, IL
reply to trparky

Re: there already is a problem

What are Verizon's LTE Advanced plans again? Yes, that's right, they haven't announced when they are going to deploy it.


trparky
Apple... YUM
Premium,MVM
join:2000-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:2
Rumor has it that it will be sometime in 2013, probably late 2013.


Paladin
Sage of the light

join:2001-08-17
Chester, IL

Shannon-Hartley Theorem

So in Karl world this is a fantasy that doesn't exist? Okay.

»en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shannon···_theorem


Paladin
Sage of the light

join:2001-08-17
Chester, IL
reply to DataRiker

Re: so, Karl... when are you going to offer unlimited broadband

As long as people keep paying, and profits keep growing, then you'll keep seeing caps come on line. Cut off their money supply by seeing a bunch of people leave, however...

sonicmerlin

join:2009-05-24
Cleveland, OH
kudos:1
reply to jcremin

Re: Stop hd video or stop all video.

said by jcremin:

said by sonicmerlin:

Uh no, spectrum within a cell tower radius is finite. You can add as many cells as you want, and string up fiber to those cells as needed.

While that is true to an extent, most of the cell antennas are 200 to 400 feet above ground so one tower might overlap a dozen other towers over a 20 (or more) mile radius in terms of self-interference, even though the useful range to a cell phone might only be 5 miles.

So even though it seems like it would be an easy fix to just throw up a ton of towers, the reality is that it creates a nightmare of RF to deal with, and all of those towers are quite expensive.

I run into the same problems with my WISP. I have some areas with no service, and have had offers from landowners to build a tower to fill the gaps, but because all of my spectrum is already in use on surrounding towers, I can't put anything else up, even if I can afford the tower.

One option is to run fiber down a highway and put up a ton of small "towers" which are only 30 or 50 feet tall and sheltered by the surrounding trees or buildings, limiting the interaction with other towers. But then the problem becomes that every little hill, patch of trees, or cluster of buildings ends up creating dead zones all over the place. So while we end up with a high capacity system, the coverage ends up much more limited than fewer tall towers.

We won't be using "towers" in 10 years when 5G rolls around (or DIDO, whichever comes first).

At any rate, LTE A does 1 gbps over 67 MHz. Verizon and AT&T have almost twice that much spectrum. I'm sure they'll find more to warehouse when the FCC auctions off another 300 MHz soon.


Packeteers
Premium
join:2005-06-18
Forest Hills, NY
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Time Warner Cable

1 edit

old crisis

my area just bumped up broadband speed from 7 to 10m
because they finally upgraded their network to wideband,
so they gave all the old broadband users a break. even
old aDSL users can get 3 to 5 or 3 to 7 upgrades at the
same price as their old 3 plan, if they resign for a year.

if there was a "crisis" they would not be doing that for free,
especially in markets where FiOS won't be available for years.
except for a small minority of abusers, most people are only
using a tiny fraction of the bandwidth they pay for Monthly.


AuraReturn
Premium
join:2003-08-18
USA
reply to davidhoffman

Re: Comcast and ATT worst offenders

said by davidhoffman:

Try using WiFi at 80mph on an Interstate Highway, 60 mph on your local parkway, or even 40 mph on city streets. You cannot do it yet. That is one reason we pay extra for cellular data plans, so we can really get information on the go.

I can barely use my "3G" service going 65 mph.
--
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bay area jobs Dogs for adoption coupons NBA: »nbaintelligence.com

davidhoffman
Premium
join:2009-11-19
Warner Robins, GA
kudos:3
I use it on I-16 between Macon, Georgia and Savannah, Georgia. Average speed is 75mph. I also use it on I-75 between Macon and Atlanta. Average speed of 65 mph. I use a USB760 modem and a netbook to mainly surf the web for maps or business websites. Sometimes make reservations for river cruises or hotels. Obviously I am not driving and am a passenger, so I can deal with the occasional dead zone or overloaded tower between Atlanta and Macon. The problem usually lasts only about 1 minute. There are 5 spots along I-75 I know the signal will fail for 30 to 90 seconds. I just wait until we are through them. If I get permission from the vehicle owner/driver to put a magnetic external antenna on the roof of the vehicle, the signal loss problem is significantly reduced. Usually I just refresh the browser to reload a partially loaded website. I do not try to watch video because it does not work well enough to be enjoyable. Maybe when LTE is fully deployed I will try video watching.