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Comments on news posted 2012-11-13 08:32:01: The wireless market is finally starting to reach its saturation point, with last quarter's subscriber growth being the slowest in over a decade. According to a new report by Chetan Sharma consulting, last quarter saw the industry add 2. ..



ITALIAN926

join:2003-08-16
kudos:2

2 recommendations

yawn

When every person has a cellphone , what is expected to happen? Wireless will only grow with increased population. This is supposed to mean that there is a cellphone extinction on the horizon? I really dont understand the fuss about new CHALLENGES.



pnh102
Reptiles Are Cuddly And Pretty
Premium
join:2002-05-02
Mount Airy, MD

Inevitable

Eventually the market for cell phones would be saturated. This basically means there will be no reductions in price from here on in because there are no more new customers to be wooed into getting cell phone service because it is cheap.
--
USA 2012 - the mooches won.



JasonOD

@comcast.net

I don't think it will matter much......

As carriers have successfully made the switch to data usage billing. Which sets us predictable and steady revenue increases coming from riding the usage curve and creating additional LTE focused products over the next decade.



kapil
The Kapil

join:2000-04-26
Chicago, IL
reply to pnh102

Re: Inevitable

Actually, it probably means the exact opposite. With no low hanging fruit left to be had, carriers will turn on each other and compete on price, service levels etc. because that is the only way to poach customers and grow.

AT&T's iPhone exclusivity and Verizon's short lived LTE dominance were probably the last examples of provider differentiation....with all networks being largely the same and all carriers having equal access to most popular devices, customers will go where the lowest price is.....that's why you see VZW spending so much marketing money trying to carve out a niche based on network quality
--
»www.kapilville.com



jseymour

join:2009-12-11
Waterford, MI

Was Predictable and Predicted

Earlier in the year several industry analysts observed that most people who wanted a cell phone had one, that most people that wanted a smartphone had one, and that the market would essentially reach saturation sometime around 2013, so this should come as little surprise.

Never mind that, political hacks' and the dominant "news" media's claims to the contrary, the economy is weak, the prospects for it growing are not good and, in fact, it's balancing on the edge of another recession. Most people instinctively know this, and are cutting back.

Jim


tom thomas

join:2010-11-04

lower prices now ?

hopefully this means a hift to more competition in two desperately needed areas:

total monthly cost

data bucket size per dollar

i wil love it if this turns into a good old fashioned price war


CXM_Splicer
Looking at the bigger picture
Premium
join:2011-08-11
NYC
kudos:2
reply to kapil

Re: Inevitable

In general, I would tend to agree with you but since the two biggest carriers seem to be in lock-step with each other, I think they know they can raise prices in unison. If two companies are on equal footing, a price war is disadvantageous to both of them. Smaller carriers (Sprint, Tmo) will try to undercut the big boys' pricing though.


openbox9
Premium
join:2004-01-26
Germany
kudos:2
reply to JasonOD

Re: I don't think it will matter much......

Bingo. Subscriber stagnation is of minimal consequence if there are now subscribers left to be had. Growing revenue is what matters most and I believe the carriers have positioned themselves well for that goal.



spewak
R.I.P Dadkins
Premium
join:2001-08-07
Elk Grove, CA
kudos:1
Reviews:
·SureWest Internet
reply to CXM_Splicer

Re: Inevitable

said by CXM_Splicer:

In general, I would tend to agree with you but since the two biggest carriers seem to be in lock-step with each other, I think they know they can raise prices in unison.

Now to add revenue, the big boys will charge you for using your own phone to connect to your own wifi network (or any free wifi network). Imagine if you will, a day when you arrive at home and turn off 4g and turn on wifi and you get a limited amount of data before you have to pay. I know, sounds ludicrous, but one can never underestimate the big carriers and their insatiable need for profit.
--
Romney becomes "the" Epic Failure!


buddahbless

join:2005-03-21
Premium
Reviews:
·AT&T DSL Service

1 edit

said by spewak:

said by CXM_Splicer:

In general, I would tend to agree with you but since the two biggest carriers seem to be in lock-step with each other, I think they know they can raise prices in unison.

Now to add revenue, the big boys will charge you for using your own phone to connect to your own wifi network (or any free wifi network). Imagine if you will, a day when you arrive at home and turn off 4g and turn on wifi and you get a limited amount of data before you have to pay. I know, sounds ludicrous, but one can never underestimate the big carriers and their insatiable need for profit.

SPEwak I agree..
Its sort of already in its childhood years and being implemented, ATT DSL/Uverse "Data Caped" with overages, Comcast "data caped", charter & optimum voice "caped", once Verizon follows suit game over, all the smaller incumbents will as well. It would be one thing if the ISP decided to throttle your home connection after a certain amout of usage and you had an option to pay a little extra to reinstate full speed, but they all went straight to charging for overages with no other option and thats the bottom line fact.

Now as for this article The market was know to go bust as its true the majority of those who wanted cell phones already have them. there new target market are the preteens, teens and teens as they reach adulthood when they reach 18 there will be your next influx of possible postpaid subscribers. The funny part is that generation is pretty wise to the tech dramas that are unfolding and a majority of them are going prepaid already because there under 18 currently and can not get a contract so they would rather stay with prepaid when they hit 18 (if it ain't broke dont fix it) Thats pretty much the only place for growth in the next few yrs as the immigration growth has slowed tremendously, so theres no money to be made there.


88615298
Premium
join:2004-07-28
West Tenness
reply to kapil

said by kapil:

AT&T's iPhone exclusivity and Verizon's short lived LTE dominance were probably the last examples of provider differentiation....with all networks being largely the same

Is that a joke? Even once all the top 4 carriers have 4G in place in many areas( such as mine ) your choices will be at&t and Verizon. So please do not say ALL networks are largely the same.

Os

join:2011-01-26
US
reply to tom thomas

Re: lower prices now ?

It won't turn into a price war. Why else do you think they lock you into contracts? It was never to benefit you.



morbo
Complete Your Transaction

join:2002-01-22
00000
Reviews:
·Charter
reply to kapil

Re: Inevitable

said by kapil:

.....that's why you see VZW spending so much marketing money trying to carve out a niche based on network quality

You mean Verizon investing in actual infrastructure instead of marketing b.s.? Verizon is expensive, but their network is solid.


buddahbless

join:2005-03-21
Premium
Reviews:
·AT&T DSL Service
reply to 88615298

said by 88615298:

said by kapil:

AT&T's iPhone exclusivity and Verizon's short lived LTE dominance were probably the last examples of provider differentiation....with all networks being largely the same

Is that a joke? Even once all the top 4 carriers have 4G in place in many areas( such as mine ) your choices will be at&t and Verizon. So please do not say ALL networks are largely the same.

I do believe however I could be wrong that Kapil was referring to Major metro areas as Truthfully once all 4G (LTE) networks are in place by 2013-14 it will be hard to differentiate one from the next. though I do have to agree with BF, certain areas (mostly rural) ATT/Verizon will still be your only choice, unless some type of new national roaming agreement comes into play however I doubt seeing ATT or Verizon willing to strike deals with TMO and Sprint once LTE is rolled out. Hell, ATT and Verizon are already using two different ends of the 700 band just to try and avoid roaming between the two of them.

There is a big factor that a lot of people missed in this article, out of the 2.4 million subscribers 2 Million went to prepaid only 400k to postpaid. thats a huge market thats looking to be catered to. This should mark a turning point for the smaller guys TMO/Sprint especially to really start marketing some really competitive prepaid offers and features, Sprint could start a real BYOD scheme and drop the tethering fees. TMO to raise there throttle ( say up to/around 512kbps respectively ) and show off that even @ throttled speeds you can still Pandora & slacker with no buffering issues,watch regular quality youtube and news clips in real time, and Map software dependent on a data connection (google Maps) will work and be able to keep up with while your on the road. That would make for a huge selling point.


buddahbless

join:2005-03-21
Premium
Reviews:
·AT&T DSL Service

1 edit
reply to Os

Re: lower prices now ?

said by Os:

It won't turn into a price war. Why else do you think they lock you into contracts? It was never to benefit you.

Semi agreed the only price wars will be in the prepaid sector if there are to be any price wars. It could turn into a "non-calling features & extras wars" where the price stays the same but features and extras ( IE: more or faster data, free Apps and offers) will now be added in for no cost. Similarly it has happened before with Long distance, caller ID, 3 way, voice mail, etc... Remember when we had to pay extra for those features?


FFH
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ
kudos:5
reply to ITALIAN926

Re: yawn

said by ITALIAN926:

When every person has a cellphone , what is expected to happen? Wireless will only grow with increased population. This is supposed to mean that there is a cellphone extinction on the horizon? I really dont understand the fuss about new CHALLENGES.

Yes. Every person in the US over the age of 8 now has a cellphone already. And many have more than 1 device. Where do they expect continued growth to come from? The only sales now will be for replacement devices.
--
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasury.


Ebil1

@mycingular.net

How to grow 101

Now for evil AT&T to grow they need to offer enticements such as more Gigabytes.
The real money however will be made on the back end and their CEO is not smart enough to get it.



jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Ashburn, VA
kudos:1

I'm sure we can expect to see price increases that will be justified by the "value-added" services and apps bundled with our devices that they will block from normal access.



dennismurphy
Put me on hold? I'll put YOU on hold
Premium
join:2002-11-19
Parsippany, NJ
kudos:3
reply to buddahbless

Re: Inevitable

Optimum is not capped.



antdude
A Ninja Ant
Premium,VIP
join:2001-03-25
United State
kudos:4

I am still not one.

However, I want wireless data plans that have no caps and cheap. I don't use voice due to my impediments.


elray

join:2000-12-16
Santa Monica, CA
Reviews:
·Time Warner Cable
·EarthLink
reply to Os

Re: lower prices now ?

said by Os:

It won't turn into a price war. Why else do you think they lock you into contracts? It was never to benefit you.

Of course it benefits you. Who pays the actual price for their "smart" phone purchase?


cork1958
Cork
Premium
join:2000-02-26
reply to morbo

Re: Inevitable

said by morbo:

said by kapil:

.....that's why you see VZW spending so much marketing money trying to carve out a niche based on network quality

You mean Verizon investing in actual infrastructure instead of marketing b.s.? Verizon is expensive, but their network is solid.

Verizon was the worst wireless company I've ever used out of 4! Wouldn't use them again in a million years!

Not to mention I DESPISE big conglomerates and will do my best to go with the small guy.
--
The Firefox alternative.
»www.mozilla.org/projects/seamonkey/