en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
 ·RoadRunner Cable
 ·DSL EXTREME
| FiOS has direct competition... Uverse going for the low end
FiOS has Cable working for its money in its markets that have FiOS. Until FiOS is available in ALL Verizon areas at Cable rates, it won't 'beat' cable.
Uverse is (and has been) brushed off as a 2nd rate service.
Until AT&T makes decent deployments (technically my area was deployed May 1... 2 months later, Uverse still not available) it won't help. Also, Uverse MUST be able to upgrade its service beyond its single HD, 6Mbps/1Mbps to compete for the high end. If it wants low end, then they have to be cut rate (which they really aren't).
Cable only has to 'stay the course' on upgrades in Uverse markets.
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Canada = Hollywood North |
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TKJunkMail
Enjoy the sun
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
 ·Sprint Mobile Broa..
·Comcast
| Fios TV customer count ??
BBR says:
As it stands, more than a million customers have signed up for FiOS, and the service is available to 3.1 million households.
Moffett says:
Verizon says that at the end of first quarter 2007, its TV service was available to 3.1 million households and already had 348,000 customers, or an 11% penetration rate. The company just announced its one millionth FiOS high-speed data customer
So, the BBR # is for data - NOT TV and is misleading since this report was for TelcoTV.
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Internet News
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bogey780
join:2004-03-19
Here | I was gonna mention that. |
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bmn
? ? ?
Premium,ExMod 2003-06
join:2001-03-15
hiatus | reply to TKJunkMail
Looks like an error as it was corrected. |
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Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
| No News Here
Yawn. So what? Was there any doubt among the clueful that the telcos' efforts against cable were something less than a genuine effort to get into the TV business? We've known for some time now that a monopolist's business is to break all of the competition, real or imaginary. |
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TKJunkMail
Enjoy the sun
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
·Sprint Mobile Broa..
·Comcast
| said by Time4aNAP  :Yawn. So what? Was there any doubt among the clueful that the telcos' efforts against cable were something less than a genuine effort to get into the TV business? We've known for some time now that a monopolist's business is to break all of the competition, real or imaginary. And which monopolist is the bad guy in your scenario? Telco or cable?
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Internet News
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en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA | reply to bogey780
Re: Fios TV customer count ??
Since Uverse requires TV with Internet... its numbers won't be the greatest.
If it sold packages up to 25Mbps/2Mbps on its own, then maybe it could sell more.
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Canada = Hollywood North |
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Matt
Take me down to the paradise city
Premium
join:2003-07-20
Jamestown, NC |  Off Topic
But the quote box looks swanky! I like. |
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boontobust
@verizon.net
| Because..
in much of the country it unfortunately doesn't make economic sense for FTTP, DOCSIS 3.0 to the home with triple play and wireless, so less ambitious deployments settle into less competition amongst providers.
although I think those numbers about deployment are wrong.. (Verizon will overlap more of the cable footprint than projected) announced projections will sharply contrast with reality on the ground five years from now.. and who knows what the regulatory environment will be.. much less to say which companies will be left standing.. or what technologies will be at consumer's finger tips, need we go on to speculate what pricing will be? |
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Karl Bode
News Guy
join:2000-03-02
Host:
Road Runner
PC gaming GAMES
PC gaming Tech
| quote:
much less to say which companies will be left standing..
I boldly predict that AT&T, Comcast and Verizon won't be scrounging dumpsters for their dinner in 2012. In fact I will go so far as to predict executives for those particular companies will be able to buy very nice boats. I know, it's a bold prediction, but I feel confident. |
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ricep5
Premium
join:2000-08-07
Jacksonville, FL
·AT&T Southeast
 ·AT&T CallVantage
·VoicePulse
·Comcast Formerly ..
| 30 years vs. 2 years
It took over 30 years for cable to reach its current penetration rate. 348,000 subs in just a couple of years for FiOS is a pretty reasonable hit rate.
When I got cable in 1972, we were the first sub on our street. The second sub didn't come online for another year. Of course, there was no sports salary greed and box office greed then like there is today. (No HBO, No ESPN)
Don't let the short termers get hung up on near term subs. |
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Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
| reply to TKJunkMail
Re: No News Here
said by TKJunkMail :And which monopolist is the bad guy in your scenario? Telco or cable? What scenario?
I don't answer loaded questions for obvious reasons. |
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Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
| reply to Karl Bode
Re: Because..
said by Karl Bode :I boldly predict that AT&T, Comcast and Verizon won't be scrounging dumpsters for their dinner in 2012. Do you mean their top executives and largest shareholders, or everyone down to the least-paid employees? I wouldn't be so sure about those at the lower end of the org. chart. |
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explaind
join:2007-05-14
| Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger
So I've been agreeing with the FTTH vs FTTP debate that FTTH is ultimately unavoidable in the end...until I put together the bigger picture.
Right now, Verizon is spending millions trenching fiber to everyone. They are converting the traditional NID to Fiber LMG's (Last Mile Gateway). AFAIK, the fiber LMG's they are putting in are limited to 100 Mbps. Hey...who's got their hand raised? Yes Johnny...you are correct, an HD IPTV stream does take somewhere up to 40Mbps. And...yes Suzy, what's your question? Yes, you are correct...that would mean that Verizon is going to be limited to two HD IPTV set top boxes per home. Good observation Suzy, you get a gold star.
Now class, we know that HDTV is eventually going to gain wide acceptance by consumers right? So while most homes still don't statistically have even one HD capable TV, within five or six years most will. And...there's a good chance that many will have two. Or three. Or four... Some already do!
Now let's take a survey...how many of you think that most people will want their programming in HD on ALL of their TV's? About 80% percent of you. I agree. The other 20% will probably account for those little fees the government will eventually take out of your paycheck.
Let's look at Ma Bell's other red headed step child..AT & T.
They're still spending millions of dollars converting large portions of their plant to fiber, but they're stopping a little short of the house. A lot of the fiber is stopping at these "cabinets"...you know...the ones in the alley. Yes...Tommy? Ahh...very good...AT & T is using their right of way power to do this. That means they don't have to hire tons of sub-contractors to avoid liability issues...like ruining Ms. Daisy's flower bed.
Now class, we all know that copper already goes from your house to that cabinet right? Yes Jenny, that copper is older than your grandpa. And yes, it can move data about as quick as he can too.
But class, do you know what the difference is between fiber and Grandpa copper? ...(silence)... Copper is a lot cheaper !
AT & T can trench new copper to everyone's house. Yes, this is what Verizon is doing with FTTH. But wait...there's a surprise! Not only is copper a lot cheaper than fiber, but GIGABIT ethernet switches are A LOT cheaper than LMG's. You know...those LMG's that are still in their infancy and require battery backups at each persons house?
So class, are we seeing a difference between Verizon VS. AT & T?
You already have copper with at least four little wires in it coming to your house. Gigabit ethernet requires 8 little wires. Why yes Timmy, if AT & T converted to everyone to gigabit ethernet they could just convert the NID to a switch and use VoIP. This would maintain a truly switched network and still be efficient. Oh, and they could use power over ethernet to power everything from the cabinet onwards.
Yes Billy, that means that tech support doesn't have to worry about Uncle Jed accidentally unplugging his battery backup.
AT & T is going to leverage basic economics to let Verizon and all the others bring down prices on fiber and all the subsequent Customer Premise equipment before they ever roll FTTH. And considering I believe they're fully capable of pushing gigabit ethernet in the not too distant future*, they've got at least a decade to avoid it.
* I know the plant is probably not close to this yet, but all the equipment needed to do this is already there or can easily be there when you have a few million in the bank. And by "there" I mean being manufactured, not installed in your local remote terminal.
I know this post is slightly Off Topic, so I'll provide some insight into telco IPTV deployment: it'll give another choice to many, but it won't bring down the price on "cable" television. Shwew...that was tough.
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ztmike
Mark for moderation
Premium
join:2001-08-02
Michigan City, IN | Cherry picking?
If Verizon Fios doesn't cherry pick to where to install their new fiber service, how do they pick then? Do they go by population? |
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AMDonUT2004
join:2006-06-12
Bedford, VA | back to the future
2012 10% of all americans have access broadband
2022 80% of all americans have access to broadband
and there will still be dial-up  |
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bogey780
join:2004-03-19
Here
| reply to explaind
Re: Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger
Well actually MPEG-2 1080p doesn't take 40Mb/s. usually it's around 25-30Mb/s. 720p and 1080i is a over half of that and using AVC instead of MPEG-2 is even less. Though this isn't a problem to Verizon currently. They're using an RF overlay from their PON equipment thanks to WDM. If they did switch to IPTV then ot would be a concern.
Though you are on the right track. FTTC can provide a great deal of bandwidth at a fraction of the cost and with no CPE support by the end-user for basic POTS service. |
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DUH
@comcast.net
| reply to en102
Re: FiOS has direct competition... Uverse going for the low end
This analyst gets paid to create such a silly report?
Five years more people will have their PCs connected to their TVs, like seen here »www.techavid.com .
WE probably all spend way more time on the net then watching TV, well younger generation to the geeks. Anyway I prefer enjoying TV content free of the web. |
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explaind
join:2007-05-14
| reply to bogey780
Re: Maybe AT&T *IS* thinking bigger
Well I did say up to 40Mbps  . Thanks for pointing out that Verizon doesn't use IPTV. I learned that a while back but had forgotten.
In my eyes it just seems stupid to be using/pushing for anything NOT 100% TCP/IP based*. At least for the immediate future (next few years...or decade or three). I do think it's wasting time/money to try (insert type) DSL though when for a little more effort (and I'm fully aware of distance issues, but I think they could be easily dealt with) AT & T could do what I was talking about above. I hope that is their plan.
Also, speaking of MPEG compression and bandwidth...one reason I really believe that (using IPTV) the current generation of LMG's is going to be limited to 2 HD STB's is because of the scalability of the LMG itself. Let's go on the low end and say 25Mbps. Two STB's= 50Mbps. Now we have to have bandwidth for the net...and in a few years I'm going to guess that 25Mbps (maybe 20 down, 5 up?) will be the normal package. We're at 75 megs. Now leave a little room for VoIP (I'm thinking a purely TCP/IP environment ) and we've got a very busy LMG. I've seen the current gen LMG's struggle under a load, so I'd hate to find out what happens at the 80+ meg mark. Granted, VoIP is very minimal.
I'm not saying that future LMG's won't be able to push a full 100Mbps (you always have overhead though), but I've definitely seen some of the current ones want to unmount themselves and run for it.
With some tweaking (read: smoke and mirrors), I think 3 HD STB's could be a possibility.
Regardless...I now think that AT & T is in the game just as much as Verizon is. They're definitely not technologically ahead (as fiber is only limited by the devices on both ends), but financially they're probably going to be ahead for a while if they do what I'm guessing they're shooting for long-term. I thought (just like everyone else) that AT & T was going to lag behind Verizon a lot here in a few years, but really I think the playing field is going to be very level.
*=If they're going to spend the money/time/effort to upgrade everything. |
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Time4aNAP
Premium
join:2007-04-09
Des Plaines, IL
| reply to explaind
As Usual, the Ego / Knowledge Ratio...
said by explaind :So I've been agreeing with the FTTH vs FTTP debate that FTTH is ultimately unavoidable in the end...until I put together the bigger picture. Ah...FTTP and FTTH mean the same thing. Having a debate over the same thing is kind of like a person without a multiple personality disorder arguing with himself.
Right now, Verizon is spending millions trenching fiber to everyone. They are converting the traditional NID to Fiber LMG's (Last Mile Gateway). Even in Texas (and Alaska) no demarc is as large as a mile. Do you know what a NID is?
AFAIK, the fiber LMG's they are putting in are limited to 100 Mbps. Although there are different grades of fiber, each strand is good for at least a few Gbps. Even if they're running cheap plastic fiber, using multimode transceivers, all it takes is a quick card swap to increase bandwidth a thousand-fold.
The other 20% will probably account for those little fees the government will eventually take out of your paycheck. Is that your left-handed way of claiming that poor people want to be poor?
Let's look at Ma Bell's other red headed step child..AT & T. You don't get a gold star. First, ellipses use three periods in a row, not two. Second, it's AT&T, as in "American Telephone and Telegraph", not "at and tea". Also, red-headed is hyphenated, and stepchild is one word. And the suggestion that the company formerly known as SBC is somehow discriminated against, well that's just plain stupid!
They're still spending millions of dollars converting large portions of their plant to fiber, but they're stopping a little short of the house. A lot of the fiber is stopping at these "cabinets"...you know...the ones in the alley. Yes...Tommy? Ahh...very good...AT & T is using their right of way power to do this. That means they don't have to hire tons of sub-contractors to avoid liability issues...like ruining Ms. Daisy's flower bed. Cabinets like this?
»mysite.verizon.net/vzeofuds/imag···idge.jpg
That's a Verizon FIOS cabinet, actually. One of their smaller ones, in fact. As an ILEC itself, Verizon has its own rights-of-way, just like "AT & T". No, it's not about liability. It's simply cheaper to plunk down one of these refrigerator-sized vaults wherever they like than it is to put them out of sight. FYI--Ms. Daisy's flowerbed is fair game as a place to put one of these, and Ms. Daisy has no legal recourse if they do.
Now class, we all know that copper already goes from your house to that cabinet right? Wrong. Copper is a metal that's valued for being malleable, ductile, and being a good conductor of heat and electricity. Where copper "goes" is up to people. And the people who hooked up twisted-pair copper wiring to your house, back before there was carrier-grade fiber, terminated the other end of that loop at a central office (CO), not at some box from the future.
Yes Jenny, that copper is older than your grandpa. And yes, it can move data about as quick as he can too. Can't argue with that. I know of lots of 80-something people using their DSL service to keep up with their friends and family, grandchildren included, along with the other things that the Internet is used for. And 8 Mbps SDSL capability at over 9000' is mighty spry for the 80-something copper loop, complete with wax paper insulation and a lead-sheathed trunk, that carried my DSL service.
But class, do you know what the difference is between fiber and Grandpa copper? ...(silence)... Copper is a lot cheaper ! Ah...no. Category 3 copper cabling costs more per foot than a bundle of glass fiber cable. It's been that way for well over a decade.
AT & T [sic] can trench new copper to everyone's house [sic]. Can, but doesn't need to, as it's already there.
And not everyone lives in the same house. 
GIGABIT ethernet [sic] switches are A LOT cheaper than LMG's [sic]. That's a mighty subjective claim. Do you know what a basic Cisco Catalyst® 6500 costs?
You already have copper with at least four little wires in it coming to your house. The correct answer is two. At least two wires are required for a local loop, not four. You see, there's this thing called a "hybrid"...
Gigabit ethernet [sic] requires 8 little wires. Why yes Timmy, if AT & T converted to everyone to gigabit ethernet they could just convert the NID to a switch and use VoIP. Sorry Timmy, but that's incorrect. Even if your home is one of the very few that has eight good phone wires running to it, they aren't suitable for Gigabit Ethernet.
The fact of the matter is that very few homes have a NID, because very few homes have T-1 service. Regular phone service, sometimes called "POTS", doesn't use a NID. Any form of Ethernet that uses electrical wiring (copper, aluminum, silver Litz wire; it makes no difference) is limited to a distance of 100 meters between termination points. That's about one-half of a city block. Not very practical or cost-effective for the stated purpose.
Oh, and they could use power over ethernet to power everything from the cabinet onwards. Well, at least up to the demarc, that is. The customer is responsible for the CPE side of the demarc. So there's no reason to deploy PoE.
AT & T [sic] is going to leverage basic economics... Sorry kid, but if you want to get into an economics class, you're going to have to bring up your grades first. You get an F on this report. Next time, do the research instead of making things up. |
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