dslreports logo
spacer

spacer
 
    All Forums Hot Topics Gallery
spc

spacer




how-to block ads


view:
topics flat nest 
Comments on news posted 2008-08-19 17:58:54: As noted this morning, cable Wall Street analyst Craig Moffett traditionally loves him some cable while slamming FiOS wherever possible. ..

page: 1 · 2 · 3 · next


maartena
Elmo
Premium
join:2002-05-10
Orange, CA
kudos:4

1 recommendation

QWest will sell itself to the highest bidder.

At some point in time, QWest realized that it cannot compete without a cellular phone network (AT&T and Verizon are losing hundreds of land-line customers a day to cellular only - which THEY don't mind), and without a good broadband strategy.

They will milk the DSL and land-line market as long as they can, and they you will see talks with AT&T or Verizon for a "merger".
--
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both" -
Benjamin Franklin, Founding Father.


Duramax08
To The Moon
Premium
join:2008-08-03
San Antonio, TX

......

This makes me kind of mad because all i can get is dialup and I would love to have some kind of faster internet too. They are probably going to go over their existing areas that already have high speed internet.


mod_wastrel
anonome

join:2008-03-28
kudos:1

One...

Is he still on dial-up?
Two... How does he feel about the telegraph?


hayabusa3303
Over 200 mph
Premium
join:2005-06-29
Florence, SC
kudos:1

Funny

While he talks about faster speeds on cable with Docsis 3.0 but what good is it if they cap or meter it to death. Of course its going to be faster NO one is online.


Xela19115

join:2000-10-06
Richboro, PA
Reviews:
·Verizon FiOS

1 recommendation

Typical Wall Street Myopia

Wall Street cannot see beyond their next martini let alone a future of broadband. These analysts would love to have a situation where a company does not spend a cent on anything and just milk existing customers. That makes for really good balance sheets and certainly makes these analysts happy.

Moffett favors cable stocks so it is no surprise that he wants telco alternatives to fail. When I had FIOS installed I was told by VZ techs that they have a hard time keeping up with new installs because people dropping cable like a bad dream. Comcast loses hundreds customers per day in Philadelphia area to FIOS. Every house on my block switched. Everyone I know who can get FIOS got it. That speaks for itself. Verizon's cost might be a bit higher now, but they will come down and in a longer run they'd be a far better position for the next-generation communications services.
--
xela19115


rec9140
Provoice just DO it

join:2003-07-29
Mulberry, FL

Analysts....shoot them like all the lawyers..

I hereby award Mr. Moffett the Jester Analyst of the Year Award for totally having no clue about technology.

Thanks for proving mine and several posters point in a recent news thread how analysts have no clue what they are talking about except how to make money for themselves.

Thank you thank you, thank you.

Now some body find this idiot and turn all his little toys off. No cell phone, no internet, no pc's. He can go back to an adding machine and a ticker tape.
--
Ban all copyright, trademarks, and IP laws!//Lorem ipsum ei pro stet equidem labores, at enim animal expetenda nec. Ea vix argumentum dissentiunt, usu esse ridens ex.

MrSpock29

join:2008-02-09
Hammonton, NJ
reply to Xela19115

Re: Typical Wall Street Myopia

said by Xela19115:

Wall Street cannot see beyond their next martini let alone a future of broadband. These analysts would love to have a situation where a company does not spend a cent on anything and just milk existing customers. That makes for really good balance sheets and certainly makes these analysts happy.

Moffett favors cable stocks so it is no surprise that he wants telco alternatives to fail. When I had FIOS installed I was told by VZ techs that they have a hard time keeping up with new installs because people dropping cable like a bad dream. Comcast loses hundreds customers per day in Philadelphia area to FIOS. Every house on my block switched. Everyone I know who can get FIOS got it. That speaks for itself. Verizon's cost might be a bit higher now, but they will come down and in a longer run they'd be a far better position for the next-generation communications services.
well, not all analysts are this (I'm trying to be polite) horrible, however, there is a saying:

"In a bull market, who needs analysts, in a bear market, they'll kill you".

He must love his rotary phone.

backness

join:2005-07-08
K2P OW2

1 recommendation

reply to rec9140

Re: Analysts....shoot them like all the lawyers..

Gee and the phone companies have only been milking this copper for almost 100 years in some areas,

This guy is a donkey, the fiber is a sunk cost to be recouped over the next 100 years or at minimum 30.


KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK

Thank God idiots like him don't make decisions....

Ban this idiot from using computers or cellphones or anything remotely advanced. He's obviously happy with the luddite philosophy.


KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK

World's Biggest Douche....

... and the winner is.....

Craig Moffett!

»/r0/download/1 ··· fett.jpg


danclan

join:2005-11-01
Midlothian, VA
its these typical short sighted assessments that led the cable co's to the hybrid fiber coax plants in the first place. Comcast had the chance to convert to all fiber but didnt.

The biggest richest men think long term 5+ years. Fios and Verizon are primed for that time frame. As are ANY full FTTH providers.

Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time.

mobbo

join:2005-04-13
Denton, TX

Will be buying Verizon stock now.

Thanks, Craig, for the stock tip. I will be sure to buy stock in a company that has a product people will MOVE HOUSES for and is future proof.


L337
Premium
join:2005-03-10
Chicago, IL
reply to Duramax08

Re: ......

Have you ever heard of T-Mobile Internet Data line?

deviationer

join:2005-01-01
Portland, OR
reply to KrK

Re: World's Biggest Douche....

HAHAHAHAH

Kearnstd
Space Elf
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
kudos:1

1 recommendation

reply to Xela19115

Re: Typical Wall Street Myopia

the typical US investor cant see beyond the end of the current quarter. its why analysts and investors dont like major plant upgrades because they cause a big hit this quarter even if the gain is huge in 10 years.
--
[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports

dynodb
Premium,VIP
join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
reply to danclan

Re: World's Biggest Douche....

said by danclan:

Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time.
That may be true, but if so- letting someone else be the guinea pig and work out the bugs isn't necessarily a bad thing. The longer you wait, the lower the deployment costs become (as Verizon has witnessed). Waiting until there's a high demand also decreases the time it takes to get a return on your investment.

Remember- about 75% of people who could get FiOS... don't.

Who's smarter- the one who rushed out and installed Windows Vista on the day it was released, or the one who waited a bit to see how it worked out?


KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
said by dynodb:

Who's smarter- the one who rushed out and installed Windows Vista on the day it was released, or the one who waited a bit to see how it worked out?
The one who waited for all the hacks and DRM to be stripped out and then installed it for free.

Heh, j/k'ing but I get your point.

Still though, long term the Cable co could be rushing to play catch up while bleeding customers to FIOS.
--
"Regulatory capitalism is when companies invest in lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians, instead of plant, people, and customer service." - former FCC Chairman William Kennard (A real FCC Chairman, unlike the current Corporate Spokesperson in the job!)


WiseOldBear
De gustibus non est disputandum
Premium
join:2001-11-25
Litchfield Park, AZ
Reviews:
·Cox HSI

1 recommendation

Analysts Should be Sent to Gitmo

If we really want to deal with terrorism in the modern world, we should collect all the "analysts" transport them to Gitmo and leave them there to fend for themselves.

Most of these arrogant, airhead piss ants have never held a real job doing anything to produce real goods or service. They shoot off their mouths and the sheep follow.
--
My perception is REALITY

EPS4

join:2008-02-13
Hingham, MA
reply to dynodb

Re: World's Biggest Douche....

When Vista SP1 was released, then the person who had installed it first could fly ahead having experience already with the system, while the person who waited to upgrade would still have the difficulties of being used to the XP environment and have to undergo those shifts as well?

The big cost of FTTH is deployment. After the system exists changing technologies on the system is much easier than having to rebuild the system from scratch- when CMCSA/TWC/Cox decide to migrate to an all-FTTH system, they'll have to deploy, while Verizon will have a deployed system already.

The big problem is that this results in massive shortterm costs and a landline division that is falling apart and is propped up only by the runaway success that is Verizon Wireless. The real benefits won't be seen in the future... as bandwidth needs grow, more people will want the kinds of speeds that VZ is ready to provide, but right now it's very shaky, and patches on the cable system like DOCSIS 3 will extend the shaky period.

Mr Matt

join:2008-01-29
Eustis, FL
kudos:1
Reviews:
·Millenicom
·Embarq Now Centu..
·Comcast
·CenturyLink

To young to remember Cable's woes in the mid 90's.

I guess that when the cable industry was having it's clock cleaned by the direct broadcast satellite industry in the mid 90's. Mr. Moffett was still rolling over in his crib crapping his diaper. Cable customers were given the choice of 55 channels of poor quality cable service versus well over 100 channels of Direct Broadcast Satellite service. The cable industry soon lost so many customers that they supported development of digital cable and upgraded their networks to support 750MHz bandwidth. If Mr. Moffett will pull his head out of his anus he will realize that Verizon is ready to clean the clocks of any cable companies that are in the same market as Verizon's FiOS. If all of the Telephone Companies would upgrade their networks to fiber the cable industry would have their broadband customers leave in droves when they tried to employ caps.


tschmidt
Premium,MVM
join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH
kudos:9
Reviews:
·FirstLight Fiber
·Hollis Hosting
·G4 Communications
reply to dynodb

Re: World's Biggest Douche....

said by dynodb:

letting someone else be the guinea pig and work out the bugs isn't necessarily a bad thing. The longer you wait, the lower the deployment costs become (as Verizon has witnessed). Waiting until there's a high demand also decreases the time it takes to get a return on your investment.
There are risks being too early as well as being too late.

Too early there is not enough market demand and implementation cost is high.

Moving too late and your competitor is established in the market place. How are you going to justify massive investment to be the number two or number player in a competitive market?

I think Verizon has opted to roll out fiber at about the right time. Installation costs are reasonable, fiber allows triple play services that DSL does not, and operating costs for fiber are much lower then copper. Once Verizon has fiber in place they will be in a virtually unsaleable position.

Ten years from now they will likely be reaping the benefits of today's investment. Today's naysayers will be congratulating Verizon on their foresight.

/tom


no_one

@PHNX.QWEST.NET

Knows nothing

He just wants to outsource it to China. It would be cheaper and pure profit.
Now to figure out how to do that?
He probably went to some high class university. Made friends with in crowd. Has no dreams for anyone but himself. Makes nothing, destroys stuff if it makes him money. Profit is the only priority of the day. Once one industry is destroyed always the next to play with. Doesn't have to know anything about them or their customers.
All he needs is an expensive suit.

jmallory

join:2005-11-02
Essexville, MI
reply to Mr Matt

Re: To young to remember Cable's woes in the mid 90's.

I don't know if I would use the term "cleaned their clocks" I was on a small street of 20 homes and I know I was the only one that switched to DBS service in the mid 90s.

1. The costs of connecting two TV sets (and two was the limit as multiswitches hadn't been put on the market yet) was close to $1500 for the good Sony system (the RCAs were crap at that point). We still had to keep basic cable for some of the other sets in the house (and to get locals)

2. Once the multiswitches were available..we could drop cable completely (once Spot Beams were deployed and we could get the local channels) but it was still rather expensive ($300) to hook up each additional TV (and we were still limited to 4 at the time but that was OK, we had 4 sets).

But back then, DBS service was a high-end product it wasn't necessarily sold to be a replacement for people with Basic cable but did represent some value to people who were into movies and sports and could live with some of the limitations early on. Actually, I think DirecTV and Dish would do well to go back to this mode of operation instead of trying to be "Cable Companies in the Sky" but that is another post.

So in my middle-class neighborhood, DBS had a penetration rate of 1 in 20. Actually when Americast came through the neighborhood they had much better luck as they got half the neighborhood to switch as it was standard cable service.

jmallory

join:2005-11-02
Essexville, MI
reply to backness

Re: Analysts....shoot them like all the lawyers..

said by backness:

Gee and the phone companies have only been milking this copper for almost 100 years in some areas,

This guy is a donkey, the fiber is a sunk cost to be recouped over the next 100 years or at minimum 30.
While that copper may be 100 years old. The CO that actually makes all that copper do something useful has changed a lot in the past 20 years.

I really don't understand some of the preoccupation which is probably one of the least exciting parts of a network.

jmallory

join:2005-11-02
Essexville, MI
reply to tschmidt

Re: World's Biggest Douche....

said by tschmidt:

I think Verizon has opted to roll out fiber at about the right time. Installation costs are reasonable, fiber allows triple play services that DSL does not, and operating costs for fiber are much lower then copper. Once Verizon has fiber in place they will be in a virtually unsaleable position.

Ten years from now they will likely be reaping the benefits of today's investment. Today's naysayers will be congratulating Verizon on their foresight.

/tom
Does this reduced operating costs for fiber take into account maintaining those ONTs? You know, 10 years is a long time, and who is to say that 10 years from now that Verizon may need to replace those ONTs en masse with all the costs and customer complaints that entails?


Mchart
First There.

join:2004-01-21
Kaneohe, HI
reply to KrK
said by KrK:

... and the winner is.....

Craig Moffett!

»/r0/download/1 ··· fett.jpg
Yeah, he looks pretty douche-i-fied. The hair, the fake smile, and the expensive suit that doesn't seem to fit. Douche'.


Video Guy

@verizon.net

ROIC and Let's Play "Hide the Pea with Expenses!"

Keep in mind that Moffitt's argument is not whether FiOS was a good idea for customers (especially the tech-loving ones on forums like this). Clearly, it was/is. (I have it and like it.) He's arguing that using the cold calculating method of return on invested capital, FiOS was not the highest and best use of Verizon's money.

If you believe Moffitt's calculations are correct, Verizon will have lots of customers loving their fast fiber service (and hating their customer service and billing?), but Verizon will be worth *less* in terms of overall enterprise value (they move $23 Billion into capex and only $17 Billion into the present value of the return on that investment). What's the highest and best use of the investable dollars? Wireless and business services.

The most insightful point made in either the article or the blog was the following:

"Verizon is replacing expenses, which show up on its quarterly profit and loss statements, with capital spending, which appears on its balance sheet." from the Blog (»bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/1 ··· pay-off/).

This means they are converting things that usually get expensed as operating expenses into capital expenses, which artificially pumps up net income compared to prior periods.

If you unwind all that capitalization pro forma you would see a much, much different cash flow picture for Verizon and their stock would probably be lower.

Illegal? No. The financial treatments are probably just fine under GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles). But the mirage is there, nonetheless. People naturally compare performance over time and most casual investors and even some analysts gloss those kinds of details. And things look rosier than they really are if you just look at the numbers as stated in their audited financials. A smart analyst unwinds those differences between periods and takes another look.

In the end, Verizon will be fine. Wireless and Business revenues will hide many sins (including a labor liability that is and will continue to hang around their necks).

AT&T and Echostar? They need to worry. A lot.


Nightshade
Premium
join:2002-05-26
Salem, OR
reply to Mchart

Re: World's Biggest Douche....

The perfect picture to throw darts at.
--
True Happiness Must Come From Within


Duramax08
To The Moon
Premium
join:2008-08-03
San Antonio, TX
reply to L337

Re: ......

Yes and im planning to get it soon. I made a post on one of the forums about the speed but no one has told me nothing.


dvd536
as Mr. Pink as they come
Premium
join:2001-04-27
Phoenix, AZ
kudos:4
reply to maartena

Re: QWest will sell itself to the highest bidder.

Qwest just needs to DIE and let verizon take over.