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Comments on news posted 2008-11-25 13:07:47: Last week we explored how companies like AT&T use cherry picked data, think tanks and policy groups like the Internet Innovation Alliance to promote the idea that we're facing a horrible bandwidth crisis (aka the "exaflood"). ..

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swhitney2003
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just wait

Just you wait until there isn't much more internets to go around. Eventually we will have to go out to Californie-way to get some. There will only be one computer, and we'd all have to share.


TKJunkMail
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 Past statistics don't always show future trends

compiled the latest set of data concerning the growth of Internet traffic
A lot of these predictions that the internet WON'T face much higher bandwidth demand is based on past statistics. But a paradigm break is in process. The past statistics can't recognize the tremendous growth of online high def video that is coming. Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
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Matt
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said by TKJunkMail See Profile :

compiled the latest set of data concerning the growth of Internet traffic
Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
So the answer is obviously to institute caps? I meant, if bandwidth use is growing as Comcast, Time Warner, and AT&T insist, then clearly capping monthly bandwidth and charging for people who go over that amount is the answer.

ggultra2764

join:2007-09-13
Cambridge, NY
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Yeah, but the trust of the three above is questionable with AT&T bugging the government for teleco immunity from lawsuits, Comcast butting heads with the FCC and angry consumers over P2P throttling and invisible caps, and some of Time Warner Cable's decisions regarding channel packages.


kontos
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Woo Hoo! Free capacity!

said by Karl Bode See Profile :

Again, there is absolutely no evidence that Internet growth is accelerating so quickly that carriers can't manage it with modest capacity improvements.
Ah, so as long as the capacity improvements are "modest" The carriers don't have to pay for them. Got it.


fireflier
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reply to TKJunkMail
Re: Past statistics don't always show future trends

Are you copying this stuff right off of a list of telco talking points?

»Past may not be prelude

Based on present ISP measures, the evil growth of which you speak will never take place since they'll cap the hell out of anything that's not sourced from their own servers.

Assuming tremendous growth of high def video really isn't any more accurate than using past years' data to predict future growth. Who can say with certainty what HD video is actually going to do on the internet.

At least looking at the past--say--5 years is going to indicate whether some sort of non-linear increase is taking place which could be extrapolated. Assuming some kind of 'oh my freaking God the world is going to end because of HD' growth is practically pulling numbers out of one's ass.

If someone has concrete numbers to represent this paradigm shi(f)t you keep referencing, I'm sure many people here would like to see them.
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nath12

join:2008-10-13
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Telcos are just trying to quell free high def video so the can keep the triple play going forward. It's just another ploy to keep revenues up.


jmn1207
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reply to Matt
Re: Past statistics don't always show future trends

Caps and ridiculously priced overage charges speak volumes toward most ISP's future business model.

They found a way to increase the transfer speeds in a relatively inexpensive manner, but rather than spend the money on the infrastructure to support these increases, they would rather place a moratorium on the bandwidth consumption limits. They want to impose a freeze on the amount of data that can be transferred. It costs too much money in their eyes. And if they all join forces, this will be the accepted standard and it will not come back to haunt them.

They are trying to make it impossible for innovation to take root. They are crippling one type of service to keep another type alive. This is par for the course with these giant entities that have way too much control and influence in any industry. I wish it were easier to identify and eliminate these nefarious business practices that the RIAA and their ilk seem to employ after they gain too much control.


IHM
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The last mile...

Karl forgets that the last mile is the choke point and keeps focusing on undersold backbones. Upgrading the capacity of the last mile is millions of dollars with little to no return.

I don't understand what is so wrong with paying for the bandwidth you use? The "all you can eat buffet" is a terrible business plan unless you're serving garbage to senior citizens. I'd suggest that metered bandwidth would lower prices for most people AND improve network performance.
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SilverSurfer

join:2007-08-19


1 edit
said by IHM See Profile :

I'd suggest that metered bandwidth would lower prices for most people AND improve network performance.
Metered bandwidth isn't lowering the price of anyone's monthly bill except in the myths peddled by providers & their lobbyists.

sjr

join:2006-08-27
Osseo, MN

reply to kontos
Re: Woo Hoo! Free capacity!

Interestingly that is how most businesses run. They use part of their profits to maintain and expand their infrastructure. It is what one would call investing in the future. But I suppose if one can only see the next quarters profits one would never expand since that costs immediate money, never mind the payoff down the road in a year or 2 or more. Since the telecom's and cable companies seem to operate in a world of handouts and increasing investor profits every quarter they are not very good at planning ahead.

Qixotl

join:2002-02-08
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1 edit
reply to IHM
Re: The last mile...

said by IHM See Profile :

I'd suggest that metered bandwidth would lower prices for most people AND improve network performance.
Has anyone actually seen evidence of price lowering by companies that have already started metering bandwidth? Everything I have read about Comcast, Bell Sympatico, TW, and AT&T suggests that the pre-cap prices are staying the same for their packages once the caps are in place. The addition of overage fees can be considered a price increase to some extent. I just don't trust the providers to pass any savings to the customer unless they are forced to do it by real competition or government mandate.


espaeth
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Methodology problem

This report is only using data off public exchanges (mostly international) and university networks. It doesn't take into account private peering, which is by far the most prevalent method of interconnection for the Internet.

Run a few traceroutes to... well.. anywhere. How many times do you see a public exchange in between carrier hops? The interconnection method is to use carrier neutral meet-me facilities in strategic locations throughout the world; the capacity and link performance at these locations remains largely private, and hence cannot be factored into this report.

The other problem with weighting the data heavily with university network exchanges is that the overwhelming majority of university networks are governed by "fair use" policies that rate limit or otherwise restrict high-bandwidth applications like P2P, Skype (particularly when supernode election in an issue), and excessive FTP traffic. Of course traffic growth isn't going to be huge from these networks -- it's already throttled down more aggressively than any public ISP complained about in these forums!


Nightshade
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reply to TKJunkMail
Re: Past statistics don't always show future trends

said by TKJunkMail See Profile :

Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
I have a very serious problem with that statement and here's why.

I took statistics and probability. If there's anything I learned out of that class is that statisticians look at past data to make predictions about future trends. Without past data, there is no baseline for them to show future trends.

You can't have one without the other. You got to have past data to create any statistical trends at all regardless if the trend is accurate or not, period.
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IHM
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reply to Qixotl
Re: The last mile...

said by Qixotl See Profile :

said by IHM See Profile :

I'd suggest that metered bandwidth would lower prices for most people AND improve network performance.
Has anyone actually seen evidence of price lowering by companies that have already started metering bandwidth? Everything I have read about Comcast, Bell Sympatico, TW, and AT&T suggests that the pre-cap prices are staying the same for their packages once the caps are in place. The addition of overage fees can be considered a price increase to some extent. I just don't trust the providers to pass any savings to the customer unless they are forced to do it by real competition or government mandate.
That's because the current caps are far in excess of what most users consume. If ISP's sold connections and bandwidth separately, my suggestion is that it would cost less for most users. i.e. truly metered bandwidth at $x amount for the connection, bandwidth billed at $y per GB.
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TKJunkMail
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reply to Nightshade
Re: Past statistics don't always show future trends

said by Nightshade See Profile :

I took statistics and probability. If there's anything I learned out of that class is that statisticians look at past data to make predictions about future trends. Without past data, there is no baseline for them to show future trends.

You can't have one without the other. You got to have past data to create any statistical trends at all regardless if the trend is accurate or not, period.
So did I. And there is no statistical models that project when the knee in a curve may happen. And that is what you can't predict based purely on past trends.
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jmn1207
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reply to IHM
Re: The last mile...

If it were possible to be charged $0-$100,000 I would love paying for the bandwidth I use. Unfortunately, the stand that most ISP's have taken is to have a high initial set price and then add even higher overage charges on top of this already expensive flat rate.

We will never have a pay as you go model with exorbitant starting costs in place before any usage amount is ever factored into the equation. It's an abusive pricing model and hardly anyone has a realistic alternative.


Nightshade
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1 edit
reply to TKJunkMail
Re: Past statistics don't always show future trends

Oh I know. If anything creating statistics is really a combination of mathematical theory and good old fashioned educated guessing. All statistical models will eventually fail, it's just a matter of when and how the data that already exists is modeled. But you still need strong past data to make the predictions. Without that all you really are doing is doing baseless guessing.
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Dogfather
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reply to kontos
Re: Woo Hoo! Free capacity!

They never pay for them, their customers do.


TKJunkMail
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reply to fireflier
Re: Past statistics don't always show future trends

said by fireflier See Profile :

Assuming tremendous growth of high def video really isn't any more accurate than using past years' data to predict future growth. Who can say with certainty what HD video is actually going to do on the internet.
How about story after story about Apple TV; Roku; Sling; Xbox; PS3 and now the Blockbuster STB being discussed in the BBR story right after this one.

It is anecdotal evidence right now, but it does speak to a change coming and coming very soon. A massive change in user actions in TV watching is being predicted here and everywhere on the net. And the statistics doesn't show it yet, but predictions say it is coming.
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My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
Ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?
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