Ahrenl
join:2004-10-26
North Andover, MA
4 edits | reply to plk
Re: guessing what he said The problem with your analysis is that DSL is just fine for most internet users. Which explains why the telco's continue to sign more customers than the cable companies every quarter. I do agree that in 5 - 10 years telcos had better have FTTH to all the major MSA's, but they're far from "damn near doomed".
DSL is the voip of HSI. It's the cheap alternative, that works just about as good. You wouldn't want to run a small business multi line customer service center off HSI voip, just like you would want to serve online software sales off of a 3mb DSL line when a 8mb HSI line is available. (actually that's a terrible analogy because their U/L are probably the same, but I'm sure you could think of something that greater DL is useful for) Sure you COULD do either, but one is definitely superior to the other under limited, power-user, circumstances.
As for TV, well as you said, there's no money to be made here.  |
Reviews:
 ·WOW Internet and..
| Telco's would be better if they started buying cable companies like Charter or RCN or even WOW. They have the content handled; a FTTC network and in most places phone as well.
But the only one that has managed to do this so far is Cinci Bell and not destroy it like AT&T their old ATT Broadband did. |
 plkLil' Duffer Burger BarnPremium
join:2002-04-20
Ogden, IA | reply to Ahrenl
I disagree
Sure, the Bells are adding cheap DSL like mad. But they are also bleeding land lines nearly as fast. I'm going to guess that providing DSL has a higher cost then providing POTS (telephone). So this gain is damn near null. No real increase in income. Especially for new dslam deployments are involved.
Meanwhile VoIP is cutting into local phone service and long distance. Long distance charges are damn near a thing of the past or headed that way.
Couple this with the percentage of young customers who are using "cell phone only" for local and long distance calls. No land line needed. So they buy cable TV or dish and cut the phoneline.
Additionally,you assume the Internet and its usage rate or bandwidth is static. Frankly I see a whole new generation of bandwidth intensive applications headed our way. We now have the X Box 360 (and others) on the net and I imagine HDTV web cams are coming soon. (surprised they are not here now) HDTV movie previews, movie downloads, better gaming. The list goes on.....
I see all this adding up faster then 5-10 years down the road. Sure, the cheap light users will continue, but not at a rate to save the day. Even this group will find reasons to use more bandwidth. So the question is, will 8 megs after HDTV via vDSL save the day? They still have to install this even for the light users in order to offer HDTV. So that COST is still THERE.
Business lines: The Bells have plenty, but those alone will not support a the bleeding monster especially if they go the vDSL route and all these other factors mentioned here and my last thread play out. ie When cable gets the analog spectrum freed and DOCSIS 3.0 is deployed. They will go after the Business market.
Since VDSL seems to being deployed and a snails pace, I am assuming just this effort will take them 5 years. I really don't see them pulling out all the stops like they should.
With that in mind, in 5 years about the time the Bells have Vdsl deployed, the cables will be offering 30 megs. Maybe even more. By then they will have VoIP much more stable and reliable. And they are going to be able to do all this far cheaper then what the Bells need to shell out.
This should lead the Cables to be able to beat the low cost dsl. Cables will be offering the 8 megs the Bells offer as their starting package for 14.95. The Bells can't pay for VDSL at that price.
The Bells are not DOOMED today, but the stage starts now. Sure they can hang on for 5-10 years. But they sure won't be a big player if they go the vDSL route unless some major innovation gets them 100megs to the home via copper.
I'm assuming they go the vDSL route. I'm also assuming that will take them 5 years if they seriously started today. I see them needing FTTH to stay in the game the day vDSL is done. Hopefully, they will wake up like others have suggested and switch to FTTH asap and get to work.
Throw in the snails pace they move and shareholder pressure......Not to mention fixed wireless and cellular broadband. The Bells have to hate competition!
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