nightdesigns
Gone missing, back soon
Premium
join:2002-05-31
AZ
 ·Cox HSI
| reply to HappyBunny
Re: Home Values going down the toliet?
said by HappyBunny  :I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... Ditto, I'm watching the prices, it's almost time. Condo prices are finally going down to correct pricing. Seen drops of $50k on a $450k home, talk about inflation.
--
[[Your signature here]] |
|
81399672
Premium
join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
| said by nightdesigns :said by HappyBunny :I am just biding my time and then will buy my first home... Ditto, I'm watching the prices, it's almost time. Condo prices are finally going down to correct pricing. Seen drops of $50k on a $450k home, talk about inflation. not sure what area you seen a house that cost 450k but in san fernando valley you not going to find a house for 450k in a good neighborhood
--
i am not a lawyer but I do play one on tv |
|
dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
2 edits | www.realtor.com shows 163 properties currently listed in North Hollywood between $550K and $450K. These include both Condos and SFR's.
There are 50 Condos and SFR's listed in Woodland Hills, Canoga Park, and Calabasas today under $550K.
I choose $550K as an up-limit because these are all asking prices in a buyers market. I would bet 5 of these sell for 10% less than asking...if they sell at all this year.
ziprealty.com list 223 homes for sale in Burbank (at any price) as of 2/28/07. 3 years ago, 2/28/04 there were 34 homes for sale in Burbank. This simply illustrates supply/demand, which you and I have agreed is a law.
Ylen, I know Calabasas is a gang-infested, high-crime area with a shitty school system that you may not label as "good"  , but there are homes one can buy today at $450K. |
|
81399672
Premium
join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
| yes you can buy a condo for 550k, i can even buy one that is new but then i also know 3kqft that recently sold for 1+ mil (about 20 of the houses) so it all depends what you looking for. I usually look at houses with sqft around 2k+
--
i am not a lawyer but I do play one on tv |
|
Lovehound
join:2005-08-18
Northridge, CA
| reply to No_Strings
said by No_Strings :Um, here's how this whole tax thing works: If you earn money... You lost me there. Earn? Money?
Please do not mention the dreaded word ending in 'K.' |
|
jamez818
please hold during the silence
join:2000-09-18
Sunland, CA | reply to aztecnology
I read the article and its sounds exaggerated. Its too pro new york. one thing is right though everyone wants to move to LA.
--
just whiners and complainers... |
|
aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
 ·Verizon FIOS
| said by jamez818 :I read the article and its sounds exaggerated. Its too pro new york. one thing is right though everyone wants to move to LA. That article is from 1984. It serves to illustrate the point that people are stupid, and that history repeats itself...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
1 edit | If you want to read a horror story:
»www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article307.html
US Recession in 2007 - Third Leg of the Bear Market Likely
"As our clients know, we have been forecasting a very hard recession over the next few years. At the beginning of 2006, our analysis was viewed with skepticism, but as more data comes in from the recent performance of the economy, our forecast is becoming more probable."
(edit): ...This just came across;
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When a certain $126,000 subprime loan on a $696,000 house on the West Coast failed to produce a single mortgage payment, alarm bells went off at Clayton Holdings, a company that monitors credit risk.
Closer scrutiny revealed other red flags. The borrower's previous rent payment had been $1,000, compared to the $4,482 she was supposed to be shelling out for both the primary loan and the $126,000 piggyback. And her stated income was $84,000 even though she was an hourly worker at Target.
»money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/magazin···?cnn=yes |
|
LeCurNon
join:2007-01-31
Escondido, CA
| reply to dogma
Congress has pushed labor costs up and thereby caused and is causing the exodus of jobs. New houses and condos are currently priced outside the affordability of the average job.
Therefore, housing prices will drop until they reach a level affordable by the buyer. |
|
HappyBunny
Hi. Cram It.
Premium
join:2001-06-23
Long Beach, CA
·Charter Pipeline
| The biggest factor, IMO, is that the "flippers" and investors have left this market. These were the folks who were really pushing up the prices. They were making insane profits by doing so. And downtown Long Beach has three or four new condo towers going up, and prices *start* in the $600,000s. These projects were started when the market was hot but it sure isn't now--and I bet those prices come down when the condos sit there empty.
The hidden benefit might be that fewer condo projects will be built--and fewer architectural treasures will destroyed to build them. All over LA, cool buildings have been disappearing at a frightening rate, to make room for new condo projects. |
|
jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| reply to aztecnology
said by aztecnology :said by 81399672 :Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. New-home sales plunge 16.6% to 937,000 Commerce Department reports biggest percentage drop in 13 years. » www.marketwatch.com/news/story/n···BD8C9%7D this particular article is doing it's best to incite fear... look at the vertical scale of the graph, it doesn't go to zero, but makes it look like sales have dropped off a cliff. if anything, they should have measured the drop against a running average, not a recent peak.
i'm not saying we aren't heading for a correction, but this article sucks.
--
A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin |
|
aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| 
Draw your own conclusions.... |
said by jig :said by aztecnology :said by 81399672 :Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. New-home sales plunge 16.6% to 937,000 Commerce Department reports biggest percentage drop in 13 years. » www.marketwatch.com/news/story/n···BD8C9%7D this particular article is doing it's best to incite fear... O rly...?
look at the vertical scale of the graph, it doesn't go to zero, but makes it look like sales have dropped off a cliff.
That's housing over the last year, and the chart is in millions...
if anything, they should have measured the drop against a running average, not a recent peak. When you do that it actually looks a lot worse...
i'm not saying we aren't heading for a correction, but this article sucks.
Not thinking about it or not talking about it will prevent reversion to the mean...
This article gets it's data from the commerce department, feel free to dismiss the bias, and provide us with a more balanced view of the data - »www.census.gov/const/www/newress···dex.html
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| Ok, here is the chart as it should be. The black bars are the average of the data as given. Notice that the dip in January is about 10% off the average, while the peak is about 8% above the average.
And these are just sales, AND they left off one of the most important pieces of data, the past December-January data. How many homes do you think normally switch hands around Christmas?. My bet is that seasonally, it's USUALLY the lowest sales time of the year, if for nothing else than the banks/sales staff are all on vacation.
The article is worse than useless, it's misleading.
--
A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin |
|
coxta
Ultramundane
Premium
join:2000-07-15
LALALALALALA
 ·Pacific Bell - SBC
1 edit | You could loess all the data for the last ten years and it would look like a smooth line. I don't have a problem with the data presentation, it's a way to give an idea of the relative change, not the absolute. The issue, is how it's interpreted.
I work around the real estate business, and the prevailing observation is that home prices are steady to increasing, but sales are fewer. Also, keep in mind that presented data is lagging by about six months.
--
cum hoc ergo propter hoc |
|
jinjimbob
Troy Mcclure
join:2001-11-13 | reply to dogma
If you look at the value of houses over the last 30 years, on average they have gone up around 3% per year. |
|
coxta
Ultramundane
Premium
join:2000-07-15
LALALALALALA | On average, about 3%, but real estate has a cycle, just like the business cycle, and so oscillation in prices is quite normal.
--
cum hoc ergo propter hoc |
|
dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| reply to jinjimbob
You are correct. I consider this an "investment window". You have pointed out a 30-year investment window. Same with stocks, over very long periods of time, the DOW/S&P 500/Etc. values appreciate.
But what happens when ones "window" is dynamic? An example is I bought a house in 1989 for $265K. 5 years later, in 1993 it was worth $195K. About a 25% decrease in value. Last year, it was worth $650K. A 120% increase over 17 years.
Problem, when it was at it's low, I could not afford it. The adjustable rate I got (this after a real 15% down payment) kept adjusting up. The economy slowed, business slowed, and I had to walk away from it. (A sugar-coated way to say they kicked my ass out of it).
I did not have the resources to survive through the downside of my "investment window". Part of the question is how will this pending down cycle affect people? For those that bought in the past 4 years or so, with much more "exotic" financing, how will they fare? How will this affect the overall economy that frankly has been artificially propped up over the past 7 years with loose-credit. Refinancing & pulling cash out of over valued real estate has fueled most of the consumer spending during this time.
When this free-lunch dries up, what will happen? |
|
aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
| reply to dogma
said by dogma : It is pretty clear we are looking at a 40% value drop in home value over the next 2-4 years, IMO. And moreover, as was mentioned yesterday by Alan Greenspan, a major economic recession is headed our way by years end...which may have helped precipitate the massive DOW/S&P 500 sell off today. What do you think? Just thought that I would chime in with more good news for the housing bubble...
New Century Lenders Cut Off Financing; Stock Halted
Countrywide stops no-money-down lending
As the nations #1 lender stops doing 100% cltv, and the other big boys follow suit, I'd say that this puts the screws to about 99% of the first time buyers market, and probably about 80% of the refi market of the last several years...
This just in, CW CEO dumping stock faster than I can type this sentence, ROFLMAO!!!1!!11
»www.secform4.com/insider-trading/25191.htm
Keep track of your favorite bankrupt lenders
Now this link is certainly worth reading...
Insight on US Housing Market by a Foreclosure Expert
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
81399672
Premium
join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA | L.A. home prices post another record high
--
i am not a lawyer but I do play one on tv |
|
aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
·Verizon FIOS
2 edits | Think about this from the first paragraph:
"Los Angeles County home prices continued to show resilience last month, reaching a new median record even as sales declined for the 16th consecutive month, data released today showed".
Other than the median being a totally bogus and lagging indicator, it only tells me that the high end market is still moving in the ritziest parts of the county...
And from a little further down:
"Because Los Angeles is the largest housing market in the state, prices appear to be holding up better than elsewhere. But the county also came later to the state's housing boom that began nearly seven years ago and now is one the last to lose steam".
Housing prices always go up, and trees grow to the sky...ROFLMAO!!!1!!!111
EDIT!:
O.C.'s home price winning streak is over
February marks the end of a decade-long winning streak for O.C. housing. The median selling price, by DataQuick's count, fell 0.4% vs. a year ago. It's the first year-over-year drop since Nov. 1996. Sales volume was sluggish, too. February was the 17th straight month that buying activity failed to meet the previous year's pace.
»blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/
Ylen, that last part looks eerily familiar to the one from your "record high" article...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
