No_Strings
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| reply to AR
Re: Home Values going down the toliet?
Most people wouldn't consider a real estate "crash" - however that's defined - as a good thing. Neither is it good to have a hyper-inflated market driven by speculation that prices out folks who would otherwise be responsible homeowners. And yes, a drop in housing has ripple effects in other parts of the economy.
It will be what it will be, Smart folks will find opportunity in markets - boom or bust. Conservative folks will weather rough spots. Dumbasses will get burned. |
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AR
Premium,ExMod 2001-04
join:2000-09-21
Toronto, ON
 ·Rogers Hi-Speed
| said by No_Strings  : Dumbasses will get burned. Question then is, how many of them are there?
Is anyone who took out some of that $1.2Trillion adjustable mortgage classified as a dumbass? The answer to this question will decide what happens to the overall economy.
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No_Strings
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| Some are. Maybe a high percentage of them.
Not all will default. Some who bought on speculation will earn enough on other investments to offset.
I'm not smart enough to predict whether we will have a minor correction, a sharp drop or something in-between. Even if real estate gets hit "hard" in CA, that doesn't mean calamity across the continent. The Fed could step in and loosen the money rate. Other aspects of the economy could mitigate or lessen the impact.
All I know is that folks who ignored history, experts and common sense, who threw caution to the wind and bought way over their head (you know, dumbasses) are likely to be adjusting their lifestyles significantly. |
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FutureMon
OW My Eyes
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Colorado Springs, CO
clubs: 
1 edit | Well my latest appraisal came in. From a bank who I was warned takes a very conservative approach in their estimations (wachovia).
They **must** be smoking something because their appraisal came in under $550k - and I can't believe the value of my home would drop over $100k in only 5 months. I got another appraisal from real time mls data that came in at $647k, and www.zillow.com puts me around $651k right now.
I guess they are worried about the market so they're making it very difficult for customers to qualify for their loans.
- FM
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jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA
| believe the 550. the prices of house sales in our neighborhood (sales, not offers) has fluctuated that much in 5 months. zillow is usually 6 months behind...
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CurtesyFlush
Bababooey, fafafooey, tatatoothy.
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Fontana, CA | Zillow was way off on this one.
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AR
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Toronto, ON
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| reply to FutureMon
»www.housingtracker.net/askingpri···Glendale
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dogma
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join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| reply to FutureMon
said by FutureMon :...$647k, and www.zillow.com puts me around $651k right now. I guess they are worried about the market so they're making it very difficult for customers to qualify for their loans. Try »www.reply.com/
My house on Zillow shows $711K, Reply shows $951K. I think these sites are for amusement purposes only. (Although Reply did show a neighbors house at $668K last fall. The neighbor put their house on the market in June '06 at $815K, it finally sold and closed last Month at $680K)
You may want to buy your own appraisal, which I would suggest as a good investment anyway before going loan shopping.
Does anyone else see such a big discrepancy between Reply & Zillow? |
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FutureMon
OW My Eyes
Premium,ExMod 2002-05
join:2000-10-05
Colorado Springs, CO
clubs: | reply.com came in at $599k
- FM |
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81399672
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Los Angeles, CA | reply to dogma
reply is totally wrong, no question about it. Prices do not make any sense
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ksw_92
join:2001-05-13
La Verne, CA
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| Zillow's (or any other service) problem with LA County is that the recorder's office is pretty opaque as compared to other counties. This means that sometimes data is late or is binned wrong (like refis that show as sales). Also, since sales have slowed significantly the data points (comps) are more volatile which makes them throw out a lot of data since I think they groom outliers from their estimates right now. They're going to need to change their data models now that we're moving into a market that will generate less data and be more volatile.
In the end, the value of your home is determined by what someone (loan officer or cash buyer) will give you for it. Anything else is just a guess based on point-in-time data. |
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FutureMon
OW My Eyes
Premium,ExMod 2002-05
join:2000-10-05
Colorado Springs, CO
clubs:
1 edit | said by ksw_92 :In the end, the value of your home is determined by what someone (loan officer or cash buyer) will give you for it. Anything else is just a guess based on point-in-time data. As a potential seller, that's what I like to hear. Because my property is unique enough that the right buyer who appreciates the qualities it has (I believe) would pay a premium to get. Lot offers privacy, nice view of valley, neighbors homes are about 100 feet away on both sides (below me) and no one behind me. Definately not your typical "cookie cutter" property.
For Refinancing, though, that kinda sucks.
- FM
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Kibbles
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Mission Viejo, CA
| reply to dogma
»news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070319/ts_···troit_dc
If what is happening in Detroit ever happens here then you can definitely say our home values have gone down. |
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No_Strings
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| said by Kibbles :If what is happening in Detroit ever happens here then you can definitely say our home values have gone down. That's the least of what you could say if that happens. |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
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join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
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| reply to dogma
The latest housing #'s came out today
New Homes Sales Fall 3.9% In February, Far Below Estimates
"Sales of new U.S. homes fell 3.9% in February to the lowest rate in nearly seven years while the number of new homes on the market grew, according to a government report on Monday that showed more signs of weakness in the housing sector".
U.S. Dollar Tumbles On Disappointing Housing Data
"Sales of new homes unexpectedly tumbled 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000, the lowest since June 2000, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected a 6.7% increase. Inventories of unsold homes rose 1.5% to 546,000, representing an 8.1-month supply, the largest in 16 years. Inventory is up 26.6% in the past 12 months".
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dogma
Premium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
| Home foreclosures in California increase 80% over last year.
More than 16,000 California homeowners were foreclosed on in February, a 79- percent increase over the same period last year, said a report on Monday.
This was the second highest level after Florida in the nation, according to the report released by RealtyTrac.com, which monitors foreclosure activity.
California's total of 16,273 foreclosure filings during the month represented a 4-percent increase over January 2007. The state's February foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 751 households was 1.2 times the national average and ranked 13th highest among the states. |
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Kibbles
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join:1999-07-31
Mission Viejo, CA
| reply to dogma
In my area the amount of Foreclosures is still the same...about 30-80 a month...but what I am seeing an increase in is the amount that is owed to the bank...some homes have a appraised value of 800k....but the mortgage balance is over 700k.
So in time,my guess in 10 years or less,there will be another wave of foreclosures.  |
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dogma
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Boulder City, NV
| reply to dogma
Bumpity, bumpity, bump
Had to, just read an article and it absolutely infuriated me. Apparently there is (already) talk of a "bail out" of the RE crisis. At the borrower level. If one gets a home loan they know they can't afford, no worries. The rest of us will pitch in and make sure this person's 56" Plasma remains on their living room wall.
said by selected snippets from: »news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070411/ap_···ing_woes :
The call for federal involvement from New York Democrat Charles Schumer, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, came on the same day the National Association of Realtors forecast that the median price for existing homes will decline for the first time since 1968 as a sales slump worsens.
"We will be proposing significant amounts of dollars," Schumer told reporters after being asked if a large federal bailout may be needed.
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"We've heard one heartbreaking story after another of borrowers with limited incomes being sold mortgages they could not afford," Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said at a briefing on Capitol Hill.
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Activist and community groups are stepping up efforts to aid homeowners affected by the housing market's woes. They argue that banks and mortgage brokers_not borrowers_bear most of the blame for the industry's problems.
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Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn, said he would call for a summit on Capitol Hill soon "to try to work out a process for providing relief to homeowners."
So, buy anything with borrowed money, no risk.
Before someone says, "See, it's theem dern tax 'n spend democrats"... It is important to note here this "bailout" is not for the prick-consumer. The prick-consumer-bot will always be in perpetual debt. This is part of a Corporate & Chinese controlled U.S. government (both Repubs and Dems are owned), whose core methodology revolves around this concept:
“Privatize the profits and socialize the losses”
'Nuff said. |
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81399672
Premium
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Los Angeles, CA
1 edit | I am on my way now to buy 2 mores houses, i love the federal government 
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aztecnology
O Rly?
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Murrieta, CA
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| reply to dogma
Yeah, i've been reading the commentary on Dodd and Schumer, and I don't know if this is going to have enough teeth to get anywhere or enough money to have a meaningful impact. The government shouldn't interfere with natural market forces that NEED to take place, just like every other RE cycle that happens every decade...
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