 81399672Premium
join:2006-05-17
Los Angeles, CA
kudos:2 | reply to aztecnology
Re: Home Values going down the toliet? Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. All of those that are hopping that prices will drop and you can get in to the market can dream but you will most likely will have to dream for long time before it happens
--
i am not a lawyer but I do play one on tv |
|
|
|
| The day Los Angeles's bubble burst - By Mr. Ben Stein, a must read.
It happened in the 80's, it happened again in the 90's, and it's happening again in the 2000's...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
| reply to 81399672
said by 81399672:Like i said lets wait for february #'s to come out. New-home sales plunge 16.6% to 937,000
Commerce Department reports biggest percentage drop in 13 years.
»www.marketwatch.com/news/story/n···BD8C9%7D
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
 jamez818please hold during the silence
join:2000-09-18
Sunland, CA | reply to aztecnology
I read the article and its sounds exaggerated. Its too pro new york. one thing is right though everyone wants to move to LA.
--
just whiners and complainers... |
|
| said by jamez818:I read the article and its sounds exaggerated. Its too pro new york. one thing is right though everyone wants to move to LA. That article is from 1984. It serves to illustrate the point that people are stupid, and that history repeats itself...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
 dogmaXYZPremium
join:2002-08-15
Boulder City, NV
kudos:1
1 edit | If you want to read a horror story:
»www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article307.html
US Recession in 2007 - Third Leg of the Bear Market Likely
"As our clients know, we have been forecasting a very hard recession over the next few years. At the beginning of 2006, our analysis was viewed with skepticism, but as more data comes in from the recent performance of the economy, our forecast is becoming more probable."
(edit): ...This just came across;
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- When a certain $126,000 subprime loan on a $696,000 house on the West Coast failed to produce a single mortgage payment, alarm bells went off at Clayton Holdings, a company that monitors credit risk.
Closer scrutiny revealed other red flags. The borrower's previous rent payment had been $1,000, compared to the $4,482 she was supposed to be shelling out for both the primary loan and the $126,000 piggyback. And her stated income was $84,000 even though she was an hourly worker at Target.
»money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/magazin···?cnn=yes |
|
 jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA | reply to aztecnology
this particular article is doing it's best to incite fear... look at the vertical scale of the graph, it doesn't go to zero, but makes it look like sales have dropped off a cliff. if anything, they should have measured the drop against a running average, not a recent peak.
i'm not saying we aren't heading for a correction, but this article sucks.
--
A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin |
|
| 
Draw your own conclusions.... |
said by jig:this particular article is doing it's best to incite fear... O rly...?
look at the vertical scale of the graph, it doesn't go to zero, but makes it look like sales have dropped off a cliff.
That's housing over the last year, and the chart is in millions...
if anything, they should have measured the drop against a running average, not a recent peak. When you do that it actually looks a lot worse...
i'm not saying we aren't heading for a correction, but this article sucks.
Not thinking about it or not talking about it will prevent reversion to the mean...
This article gets it's data from the commerce department, feel free to dismiss the bias, and provide us with a more balanced view of the data - »www.census.gov/const/www/newress···dex.html
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax |
|
jig
join:2001-01-05
Hacienda Heights, CA | Ok, here is the chart as it should be. The black bars are the average of the data as given. Notice that the dip in January is about 10% off the average, while the peak is about 8% above the average.
And these are just sales, AND they left off one of the most important pieces of data, the past December-January data. How many homes do you think normally switch hands around Christmas?. My bet is that seasonally, it's USUALLY the lowest sales time of the year, if for nothing else than the banks/sales staff are all on vacation.
The article is worse than useless, it's misleading.
--
A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin |
|
 coxtaUltramundanePremium
join:2000-07-15
LALALALALALA
 ·Pacific Bell - SBC
1 edit | You could loess all the data for the last ten years and it would look like a smooth line. I don't have a problem with the data presentation, it's a way to give an idea of the relative change, not the absolute. The issue, is how it's interpreted.
I work around the real estate business, and the prevailing observation is that home prices are steady to increasing, but sales are fewer. Also, keep in mind that presented data is lagging by about six months.
--
cum hoc ergo propter hoc |
|
