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RadioDoc
Sortofadog
Premium,ExMod 2000-03
join:2000-05-11
Chicago, IL
 ·AT&T Midwest
| reply to dr2500
Re: Cable's got the next several years, but then
Yep. Anyone who thinks that the telcos are going to just roll over and die have another thing coming. The cable cabal is getting too fat, too arrogant and too disconnected from it's customers to be able to react to a desperate, evolving competitor, which is what the telcos may very well become.
Cable has FTTN, but so does telco. It's a bit more of a pain in the ass to extend fiber to the home from a remote terminal, but at least around here there are multiple fiber feeds to those and they've got more capacity than the fiber nodes the cable companies use. Cable will have to completely re-think their engineering model to do FTTH, while the telephone network is already half (some cases 90%) there already.
FTTH may not be "needed" for 10 years, but when it is needed the cable companies are going to be way behind. It may not even be telco who knocks them off the mountaintop, but they'll be knocked off unless that fiber is ready to light.
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Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs: 
| C'mon Doc. We both know that Telco has so little FTTN as to be laughable at the present time.
And, it's going to take them years just to get anywhere close to what Cable has already.
The big problem though for the telco's is what will come next.
Cable has a much better network with their Coax to the home than Telco does with their old phone lines.
And it's those last miles that will take telco MUCH more time and Dollars to replace.
The question is, how big and dominant does cable become in the meantime? Today, they're taking a lot of telco's phone customers as well. This loss of revenue could wind up being very big and crippling telco's efforts even to roll out a new network.
Cable can compete for many years to come with the likes of Docsis 3.0 just around the corner. Even today, without that, as you know..companies like Comcast are deliving 20Mb powerboost speeds..which is plenty to even compete with FTTH even today.
Obviously, Verizon has it right with their FIOS rollout.
Right, in terms of really..it's all they could do to eventually become competitive.
But, what about AT&T? No FTTN even to speak with, and then their plans to try to utilize their existing copper in the form of Uverse.
I think they stand to wind up in a world of hurt with this strategy.
If you think in terms of cable now offering up to 20Mb +..and then even more when docsis 3.0 comes out..
and compare that to Uverse's 6Mb which we both know is 5.4Mb in disquise..the world is looking pretty bad for AT&T for years to come.
Can they even survive? Time will tell but losing hundreds of thousands of landlines now to VOIP providers surely must be giving them some very bad nightmares.
Combine that with the up and coming switch to all digital TV..HDTV at that..and really...what do they have left?
I'm not anti AT&T. I'm anti their horrible strategy as I see it.
And think that really, they'd better get on the Verizon train VERY quickly.
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