Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc in Southern California

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 01 Oct 2007 13:08:41 EDT

said by No_Strings :

If on the other hand, your goal is to take money away from people who have earned it through hard work and smart decisions and use it to reward those who have dug their own hole, you'll probably be disappointed by whatever bailout, if any, emerges.

That would be me. I've been very conservative with my finances, and I object to my tax money being used to subsidize people who are too stupid, too greedy, or too careless to manage their own finances so as to not need a government bail out.

said by No_Strings :

The world would be a far better place and the economy would be bursting at the seams if more people took my approach instead of looking for someone else to blame or fund their misjudgments and misfortunes.

I'm one too, in fact even more conservative because I always save up for a new car rather than financing. I'm appalled by all the people who spend all their income, who live month to month, who think that buying a house with zero down and artificially low interest rate is a good idea. This was a train wreck waiting to happen, and now (mixing my metaphors) this house of cards is crashing down, and even the conservative people will be hurt.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 17:58:39 EDT

jig :

said by No_Strings :

If one is to occur, though, trying to apply some misguided Robin Hood approach will make it worse.

well, i got the distinct feeling that "solvent" people were the ones buying a second or third house, the ones providing the funds that were loaned, etc (so they could continue to offer home loans, he said).

i haven't thought about it much, but preclude bailout for anyone not actually living in the house as their sole residence? and the business property bailout would have to be gone over with a fine tooth comb. rental properties get no bailout? sole proprietor manufacturing plant property does? refinances from what would have been affordable payments would not, but first time loan would?

it gets complicated fast, and i just can't imagine a scenario where someone with 10 houses on loans wouldn't be able to slip through the cracks and take the rest of us to the cleaners. similar to whats happened in LA.

i don't think we're opposed on this, i certainly don't want to see a bailout, and certainly not a lopsided one.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 15:03:36 EDT

No_Strings : I've been known to exaggerate to make a point, but Jesus, dogma , you take it to an extreme.

I don't know what, if any, criteria have been proposed to sort the wheat from the chaff in the Forbes proposal. I also don't support a bailout. I simply said that Steve's logic was sound - don't bother with the terminal cases; focus on the ones who can be helped.

As for taking a thin dime, I benefit from government money just like you do. I drive on federally-funded highways and rode my bike this morning in a county park. I contribute more than I benefit by wide measure and I resent that. I pride myself on being self-sufficient. I don't borrow money unless I absolutely have to, like a mortgage, or when it's more convenient, like my car loans. Home improvements are done with cash, credit cards are paid monthly, etc.

The world would be a far better place and the economy would be bursting at the seams if more people took my approach instead of looking for someone else to blame or fund their misjudgments and misfortunes.

And yes, the pretty people should get priority over ugly ones, thin over fat, well-mannered over rude and intelligent over dull. But, that's why they don't let me run things.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 12:23:41 EDT

dogma :

said by jig :

steve forbes ... he distinguished between "solvent people" and "people who got in over their heads", and then proceeded to say that "we need to help the solvent people,...

we'll see. it depends on how many people are watching closely whether or not something like that could get passed in congress. so, do you think the "we need to protect the rich so they can distribute to the poor" argument is going to work this time?

said by No_Strings :

I don't think there should be a bailout. I've tried to be consistent about that. If one is to occur, though, trying to apply some misguided Robin Hood approach will make it worse.

I would think why jig is aghast, as am I, is just who defines whom is "Solvent" and who "got in over their heads"? Common sense would seem to say everyone in need of a "bailout" certainly "got in over their heads".

Will Forbes head up this economic segregation goon squad? Sorting out which are the pretty people who get PUBLIC ASSISTANCE to the tune of $700,000+, and which are the ugly people that don't?

With respect to;

I suspect that you are an absolute Libertarian. One who under no circumstances would you ever take a thin dime from the government?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 09:48:31 EDT

No_Strings : I don't think there should be a bailout. I've tried to be consistent about that. If one is to occur, though, trying to apply some misguided Robin Hood approach will make it worse.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 04:31:59 EDT

jig : strings: there is some logic if you think that public money has to bail someone out... but i think there's got to be some estoppel here, and the "solvent" should be held to a higher standard of financial sophistication.

dog: gah!

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 02:07:16 EDT

dogma :

Since we are sooo busy with the more important things in life, your elected federal representatives have already got that ball rolling:
»biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/congress···ml?.v=12
(the media-tized version is ok, but it behooves anyone to actually read the House Bill, which h.r. 1852, which makes massive amendments to the banking and housing codes, both linked below and about an hour read)

»www.govtrack.us/congress/billtex···110-1852
»www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/···_13.html

It reads as Forbes suggested; The absolute mother of all welfare scams (except for the Corporate welfare stuff which this is anyway, as any "bailout" only helps and rewards the investment houses and worlds most wealthy people that have backed these loans).

Yep, for all the posturing about Illegals or inner city mothers that are getting a "free ride", this takes the cake. The Feds (that's us hostage taxpayers) will underwrite people with $730,000 mortgages (my calculations based on the documents are really as much as $894,000.) In a manner that, for the lenders, removes all risk from the transaction. So folks in Laguna Nigel, San Clemente, and the like will have the good fortune to re-write their loans and have them guaranteed by you...the taxpayer.

BTW, for those keeping score, this bill is sponsored by : Rep. Maxine Waters [D-CA]

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 02:00:49 EDT

No_Strings : I didn't see the interview, so I'm only going on your report. In spite of your Socialist leanings, Forbes' comments are logical. Why throw good money after bad? If your goal is to keep the economy rolling and the real estate market strong, you'd want to help those capable of using the help. Those who are beyond help ... well. Triage is not a new concept.

If on the other hand, your goal is to take money away from people who have earned it through hard work and smart decisions and use it to reward those who have dug their own hole, you'll probably be disappointed by whatever bailout, if any, emerges.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 29 Sep 2007 01:25:02 EDT

jig : well, here is some unsettling propaganda.

this morning steve forbes was being interviewed about the economy in general. he's pretty much groveling at the republican alter, disgustingly so. giuliani is regan, according to him.

anyway, he was asked about the sub prime stuff, and he said there would probably be some legislation to help people out. and then, he distinguished between "solvent people" and "people who got in over their heads", and then proceeded to say that "we need to help the solvent people, that's the most important thing."

huh. well, not surprising, but it seems that if there is a bailout, only the rich will be able to partake. everyone else will get their just deserts. it's always interesting to hear someone talk about supply and demand economics right before they pump for a lopsided bailout.

we'll see. it depends on how many people are watching closely whether or not something like that could get passed in congress. so, do you think the "we need to protect the rich so they can distribute to the poor" argument is going to work this time?
--
A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 20 Sep 2007 23:53:47 EDT

Kibbles : PITI is about $2,200 a month...in 5 years it will be $1,400.00 a month.
I hate to see it sell,it has been in the family ~ 35 years,
I noticed another house in pre-foreclosure for 530k so we may have to sell it even lower than 599k.
Existing mortgage balances is ~ 319k.

The Realtor we may use has a fee of 3% and an additional 2.5% if another Realtor brings a buyer in....those alternative listing companies look like they have a better deal.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 20 Sep 2007 22:03:30 EDT

dogma : Assuming the house sells at $500K (just for easy numbers), a 5% commission would be $25,000. Add in an additional 3.5% in seller closing cost of $16,000. Assuming too that there are no outstanding property taxes or liens.

So, $500K - the existing mortgage (assume $250K)= $250K - $41K in total closing = $209K/3 in gross profit or (approx.) $70K per sibling.

I would list well below market to move it NOW. If/when it languishes on the market for 12+ Months, you need to include "carrying cost". If the current PIIT = $3K/Mo, then you need to subtract an additional $36K from your gross profit.

Other alternatives that remove the ~~leach~~ "traditional" RE agent expense ($25K+?) from the transaction you should pursue:

•Zilliow.com - Free listing on their site.
•Craigslist.com - free listing
•Assist-2-Sell - Pick & choose your RE services
•forsalebyowner.com - $90 - $900 flat fee to list in MLS + website ads.
•fsbo.com - $500 to list on MLS
•Help-U-Sell - do it yourself homes sales help
•housepad.com - $149 for 6 Month MLS listing
•Redfin - $4K flat-fee agent/but requires buyers agent get a commission.
•Catalist Homes - Discount RE agency, 3% max commission.
•ZipRealty.com - Flat fee RE agency, 2% + negotiated fee for buyers agent.

It's the 21st Century (no pun), who here uses "travel agents" to book airline reservations?? It's about as
ridiculous as using RE agents to sell a house IMO. RE agents offer zero value in the modern world. EVERYONE shopping for a house uses the Internet. Most Internet sites use the MLS as a database.. All you need is a MLS listing at most, and perhaps some very limited RE services like showing the property (which you SHOULD do yourself anyway).

I recently purchased a FSBO property I found online. Cost the seller $500 for the MLS listing and he made a "For Sale" sign out of 2x4's & cardboard. We haggled to a price without all that offer/counter-offer 8-page-triplicate-"California-certified"-form bullshit the RE agents use, and had my RE attorney (at sellers expense of a whopping $650) finalize the sale. No magic. No rocket science. ... no "traditional" RE agent rip-off artist needed.

Again if you price it to move, buyers will come to you. If you remain greedy, and allow these "traditional" RE agents to bamboozle & con you, you may wind up with nothing.

Whats the difference between a Mississippi catfish and a "traditional" RE agent?

One is a bottom-feeding, scum-sucking, scavenger, the other is a fish.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 20 Sep 2007 20:45:00 EDT

Kibbles : Update :o
The home inspection report came up with 1500+ items...items as small as a missing cap on the chimney to the HVAC needing to be replaced.

The Realtor suggests we list it as 599k :p

I sent my sisters the report and titled it "I told you so"

The Realtor seems to be in a hurry for us to sign...but I am holding off until I get a few more estimates as well as a Mold :o inspection....yes a room and the bathroom has mold.

Looks like home prices are in a free fall.

»money.cnn.com/2007/09/19/real_es···y_latest

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 15 Sep 2007 15:35:48 EDT

jig : is there anyone stupid enough to sign a contract tying the percentage to the asking price instead of the sale price?

i can't think of any other reason why a real agent would spend time and money listing that house at that price. i mean, they aren't supposed to get anything unless the house sells, right?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 15 Sep 2007 13:22:30 EDT

Lovehound : Although I can appreciate that when you gotta sell you gotta sell, but I think the present is the worst time in years to try to sell a house. Many buyers who are able to hold off are holding off, not only to find out where things will shake out, but expecting reductions, perhaps drastic reductions in the coming months. There is no reason to buy now unless the buyer absolutely must have a house and can't wait.

I'm coming up on another decision point next spring, sell then? I'm sure the market will be better shaken out by then and probably we will all have a good idea where things are going. Fortunately for me I'm intending to buy an equivalently priced house, or perhaps slightly more, and hoping to move to a cheaper area out of state and get a nicer house. I say fortunately, because the house I end up buying is also falling in price, so I'll get better property tax payments from waiting.

I'm sure glad I don't have to go on today's market. This is like the hangover after the binge. I wish you luck! And I'm happy to see your sisters get their comeuppance. That'll teach them for thinking you were ripping them off. Sorry to say, you've been hurt too. Six months ago you might have caught the peak of the market, particularly if you'd priced it to sell quickly. Today, I won't be surprised if your house is on the market next spring when I hope to put mine on the market too.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 15 Sep 2007 11:34:31 EDT

Kibbles : All three agents that looked at the house agree that the house could have sold for 800k about three years ago...but now it would sell for the low 600's...so we plan to set it at 650k and see what happens the first week.
It was appraised at 675k a few weeks ago and 696k four months ago.

What is ironic I told my sisters the house is not worth more than 650k to me..both thought I was trying to rip them off...now three Realtors agree with my evaluation...if the house does sell for 650k...they will end up with less then my offer would have given them...the one big problem is if the home inspection comes up with the same items I noted and have estimates for...a buyer will want to negotiate the pool re-plastering 10k,wall/decking repair 42k,windows 20k,termite repair 5k,mold abatement,pool equipment replacement 15k and so on.

Both are coming over today to start fixing up the house so we can get it on the market asap..both think it is loosing value the longer we wait...they are 6 months too late.

I noticed in some areas there are a sheetload of houses for sale..in Marbella,2-5+ million dollar homes, there are 33+ for sale...I remember there used to be 3-5 for sale.

This market reminds me of what was happening in 1993...builders were dropping the prices of their houses from 250k to 200k and older houses were taking 6-12 months to sell.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 15 Sep 2007 02:33:37 EDT

dogma :

said by CurtesyFlush :

I feel an anti-real estate agent rant brewing in my gut. Don't get me started.

First, there are no less than 9 FOR SALE signs within a 4 block perimeter of my house. That's 9 FOR SALE signs on 4 blocks. This house, around the corner from me, just went on sale last week. 2Br/2Bth, 1500s.f. The MLS shows the asking is $849,000...American Dollars. FOR SALE sign #10.

A RE Agent must have suggested that this was a "fair" price for the property. This property wouldn't sell at $500K. Perhaps $850K 3 years ago, perhaps 2 years ago, but not today. Why a RE Agent would agree to list a home they know is $300K over priced today is beyond my grasp.

So this RE agent will kill time during their 90-day exclusive waiting for the "seller" to come to grips with reality. Even then, they may lower the price only 10%. Then the owner (and 4-5 different RE agents as the owner hops from one to another) will chase the market down over the next 2 years until it sells at $370K...what it will be worth then.

I give you ( Kibbles ) this to illustrate that unless you list your house for 15% less than the lowest listed house in the area, it wont sell. period. I could be wrong...but I doubt it.

Tell the RE Agent that the listing price will be rock bottom, therefore the house will sell quickly, therefore no entrenched sales cycle, therefore minimum time & expense on their part. A quick buck for them, but in return, they get 3% AND they rebate you $4000...or (.0075%) towards the down on your Houston Ranch (where they represent you again).

If you don't do this, again IMO, you will wind up like the owner of the house pictured.

Who here wants this house? 2Br/2Br,1500s.f. A steal at $849K!!! {NOT!}

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 15 Sep 2007 02:24:19 EDT

jig : if you're in a rush, then they might be worth it. otherwise.... just be sure you can run a decent credit check.

3% to a listing agent? are they on drugs? i bet more than 50% out there are running unlicensed.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 19:49:14 EDT

Kibbles :

said by CurtesyFlush :

I feel an anti-real estate agent rant brewing in my gut.
Don't get me started

I talked to two more agents....same bs about needing to spend more time "pushing" a sale...if they were spending 8 hours a day for 6 months getting a buyer it would be worth giving them ~ 35k....but I think the most they will spend is 15 minutes a day.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 18:37:57 EDT

CurtesyFlush : I feel an anti-real estate agent rant brewing in my gut.
Don't get me started.

Why do they think we want to see their ugly real estate faces in the display ads and on their ridiculous business cards?

Ooops, rant started.
--
Jack Horkheimer gives me the creeps.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 18:36:35 EDT

No_Strings : I chase Cristal with Rolling Rock. I'm probably not a good judge of these things.

:)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 17:48:48 EDT

Lovehound : It all depends on how desperate the RE brokers are. If they want to hike their fees, let them stew on no fees for a while, until they come down to Earth and realize supply and demand.

I bet over the last few years many RE brokers have gotten rich. Now that they have become accustomed to champagne they forgot they used to like beer.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 11:10:06 EDT

Kibbles :

said by No_Strings :

That's funny.

Volume is down, prices are down, homes sit on the market longer so they want you (already impacted by those factors) to compensate them. How about since it's a rough market right now, they agree to take less to get the deal?

We offered both 3% which is standard,one had in their contract 5.5% :mad: and all three replied that in this market they have to be more aggressive and spend more time/money getting a buyer....I talked to another two Realtors and they said its usually 3% to the Realtor and 3% to the listing agent.

I guess Circuit City should raise their prices in proportion to their stock price drops/store closings...that way they sell more merchandise. :D

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 09:19:45 EDT

No_Strings : That's funny.

Volume is down, prices are down, homes sit on the market longer so they want you (already impacted by those factors) to compensate them. How about since it's a rough market right now, they agree to take less to get the deal?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 14 Sep 2007 02:59:12 EDT

Kibbles : I talked/interviewed three Realtors today...all said because the market is slow so they have to charge about 5% of the selling price,normally it would be 3-4%....is that a trend? :mad:

BTW if you read my earlier posts...if my sisters accepted my buyout offer,a month ago, for the house we inherited from our Mother...they would each have received 100k...they wanted 114k each...but it looks like they each will get 85k or less. :p and it will cost us about 15k to keep the house until it sells.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 21:15:26 EDT

No_Strings : No, you were editing while I was replying.

My "Don't blame the people" was sarcasm.

I don't think a lender who offers a legal product can be faulted any more than you can blame RJ Reynolds for your lung cancer or blame Frito-Lay for your fat ass.

If you're stupid enough to borrow more than you can afford to pay back or structure a personal finance house of cards that falls when the wind blows, don't blame someone else.

I know there are lots of people who think otherwise, who would sue McDonalds and tobacco companies off the planet, but I'm one of those loony personal responsibility types. We're very much out of vogue these days.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 19:09:33 EDT

Lovehound : You replied while I was editing...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 19:08:25 EDT

No_Strings : The lion's share.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 19:07:15 EDT

Lovehound :

said by No_Strings :

But whatever you do, don't blame people who spent more than they had and lived beyond their means because they were sitting on a fat paper profit.

Don't blame people who can't understand and manage their own personal finances? I can't accept that. It doesn't take a genius to recognize smoke and mirror finances. I'm not saying they are solely responsible, but they bear a large share of the blame. (IMO)

The real problem however is the financial institutions and government who allowed this to happen, and ended up hurting people with conservative finances, like you and I.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 19:00:05 EDT

No_Strings : Blame a lack of government oversight of the finance industry, greedy loan sharks, speculative investors, a wild & crazy Federal Reserve ... But whatever you do, don't blame people who spent more than they had and lived beyond their means because they were sitting on a fat paper profit.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 18:51:56 EDT

Lovehound : Who do we have to thank for this substandard loan and housing glut crisis? The idiot who decided to goose the economy by lowering interest rates and encouraging people to buy homes they couldn't afford? Which government idiot did this?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 16:52:30 EDT

dogma :

said by jig :

or, we can wait for "team coverage". ;)

Per your request; Ron Burgundy, KDSLr reporting:

Newswire Anaheim:
Washington Mutual to cut 1,000 jobs, close two divisions
September 13th, 2007

Washington Mutual Inc. is closing two divisions [one in Anaheim, California] that financed mortgage companies and bought loans from other lenders and is cutting about 1,000 jobs, according to the Los Angeles Times.

This just in:
Countrywide’s stock has fallen 60 percent this year and the company announced plans to lay off as many as 12,000 employees or 20 percent of its workforce.

More "breaking" Countrywide news:
Countrywide job cuts deepen...
The troubled mortgage lender said it will hand out an additional 900 more pink slips... (wait, they are based in Calabasas, Calif.)

In other news:
September 10, 2007 IndyMac Bancorp Inc. has said that it plans to eliminate as many as 1,000 jobs and slash its dividend by half amid challenging conditions in the mortgage and housing markets (dayum, they are in Pasadena)

Also:
Option One to cut 575 jobs
H&R Block said today it will cut 575 jobs, or more than 20 percent of staff, at its Irvine-based subprime unit Option One Mortgage Corp.

...and finally:
SANTA ANA-ANAHEIM-IRVINE METROPOLITAN DIVISION
(ORANGE COUNTY)
Orange County declines by 5,200 jobs over the month; adds 2,900 jobs over the year
The unemployment rate in Orange County was 4.1 (revised to 4.9) percent in July 2007, up from 3.9 percent in
June 2007, and above the year-ago estimate of 3.8 percent

...This has been Ron Burgundy, KDSLr team eyewitness news-u-can-use, signing off.

Some of the above are based outside of the O.C., but for a more accurate body count of the O.C. mortgage industry carnage please see: »www.ocregister.com/ocregister/mo···0495.php

These are just the "major" players. The trickle down effect is an order of magnitude considering all the RE Agents/loan brokers/support staff/etc. And what about the folks in construction?? (Good for me, as last year I put out a request for construction bid and got zero respondents, this week, 60 respondents so far)

Ron Burgundy, KDSLr Anchor

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 14:45:15 EDT

jig : maybe, but there's something fishy with the 100,000 jobs lost figure. i don't buy it. or, i don't buy that they were anything more than mcjobs, and fast food always has openings. my sister is in the consumer banking industry, though she's not in a loan department. i'll ask her if she's seeing real strife on that side...

or, we can wait for "team coverage". ;)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 13 Sep 2007 13:41:35 EDT

dogma : At this point we are beating a dead horse:

said by From the L.A. Times today--> »www.latimes.com/news/printeditio···rontpage :
Worst August for home sales in 15 years - Prices drop in most Southland ZIP Codes, and the number of sales is the lowest in 15 years for that month.

"Sales for the month plunged 36% from a year earlier. What's more, 71% of the Southland's ZIP Codes showed price declines, according to figures released Wednesday by DataQuick Information Systems."

"In recent years, the housing market had been propped up by the widespread use of home loans with low introductory teaser rates -- allowing prices to outpace income growth, he said. But with those easy-credit loans all but gone, values are coming back into balance.

"People just don't have the income to support these prices except with crazy mortgages -- and now the mortgage money is going away, and people are walking away from their homes," Thornberg said.

Nearly 9% of the homes sold last month were foreclosure properties, DataQuick reported, up from 2.2% a year earlier."

Tip of the iceberg IMO. O.C. has lost 100,000 "real estate finance" jobs in the past 9 months. How are these people (if they own homes) going to afford them? Are there 100,000 new jobs...at the same pay...waiting for them?

No need to add much more to this conversation. I will stick by my estimate of 60% - 70% loss in home value from the highs over the next 3-5 years. Should we add to the cake mix a fairly massive recession during that time as well?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 27 Aug 2007 19:13:40 EDT

Kibbles : I wonder do those sales figures show how many of the sales were houses that were foreclosed,REO or about to be foreclosed?

In this area I am seeing a lot of homes for sale at 10-25% off the original asking price...even rentals are dropping in price...I found a house to lease that was $2,300.00..but 1 month later they are down to $2,000.00 and the total move in cost is $2,750.00 :D

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 27 Aug 2007 13:39:55 EDT

dogma : Glut of homes hits 16-year high
Sales slip but supply of homes on the market jumps to 9.6 months, pushing prices down for 12th straight month.

said by MoneyMag--> »money.cnn.com/2007/08/27/news/ec···?cnn=yes :
Not only did sales slip but the number of homes for sale jumped 5.1 percent, the group said, meaning there is now a 9.6-month supply of homes for sale, up from 9.1-months in the June reading. It was the biggest supply of homes by that measure since October 1991.

It's unlikely that the July report indicates that the worst is over for the battered housing market.

I think those numbers are a rise vs. the prior Month, but over 10% less than same period last year. The 2.8% "rate" is a candy-coated stat...sounds sweet, but is full of financial cavities:

said by MoneyMag :
Still, the report comes after Friday's government reading that showed new homes selling at a better-than-expected pace. But both new and existing home sales are well below year-ago levels, and that downturn, coupled with weaker prices, has hurt...

Nope...still slow evolving gloom & doom. At least the CEO of Countrywide fessed up to it as well:

said by MSNBC--> »www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20405745/ :
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 12:33 p.m. PT Aug 23, 2007

Calling the current credit crunch “one of the greatest panics I've ever seen in 55 years of financial services,” Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo said Thursday that the ongoing housing slump will likely push the U.S. economy into recession.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 25 Aug 2007 01:32:16 EDT

jinjimbob :

said by No_Strings :

CapitalOne got out of the mortgage business entirely. (Now, if they'd only stop filling my mailbox with a dozen credit card offers a week.)

»https://www.optoutprescreen.com/opt_form.cgi , seems to work well for me.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 24 Aug 2007 17:44:29 EDT

aztecnology : Probably ok if everything is already locked and docs submitted. I'd be interested to know if it goes through as planned or if there are any hiccups between now and then.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 24 Aug 2007 16:37:41 EDT

StanHaymarkt : CW also borrowed about 31B from other sources so I'm told. I have clients closing on a house the middle of Sept. and their loan for 1.25 mil is still going through with CW. No worries mate.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 24 Aug 2007 16:26:09 EDT

aztecnology :

said by No_Strings :

Some good economic news, in case anyone should think it's all doom & gloom.

Sales of new homes increased a surprisingly strong 2.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 units.

U.S.-made durable goods were up 5.9% last month, far exceeding the expected 1.5% gain.

B of A pumped $2B into Countrywide to shore up what they obviously think is a valuable business.

The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were all up for the day, week and year.

CapitalOne got out of the mortgage business entirely. (Now, if they'd only stop filling my mailbox with a dozen credit card offers a week.)

How much downward adjustment will this see next month. Plus this happened before the strangulation in the credit markets, so there's no question that this won't stick.

The BofA move is interesting, since this allows CW to fund loans today, which are conforming, and held to the highest standards. But it's probably more to line themselves up for cherry picking if CW goes down.

Having said that, it appears that the bulls are gonna march back to 14k...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 24 Aug 2007 16:12:12 EDT

No_Strings : Some good economic news, in case anyone should think it's all doom & gloom.

Sales of new homes increased a surprisingly strong 2.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 units.

U.S.-made durable goods were up 5.9% last month, far exceeding the expected 1.5% gain.

B of A pumped $2B into Countrywide to shore up what they obviously think is a valuable business.

The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ were all up for the day, week and year.

CapitalOne got out of the mortgage business entirely. (Now, if they'd only stop filling my mailbox with a dozen credit card offers a week.)

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Wed, 22 Aug 2007 00:55:06 EDT

jig : the social issue isn't who gets paid up front, it's who has to pay in the end.

we'll see.

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 20:58:01 EDT

No_Strings : I should make what Buffett pays.

I don't think the Federal Reserve adjusting the money supply or interest rates in support of a strong economy (which is their mandate) is corporate welfare. Will well-positioned companies or individuals benefit more than others? Sure. Is it unAmerican to buy Euros as a hedge against a weakening dollar? Gold if you think the stock market is going to tank? Does any of it matter to a middle-class schmoe like me? No.

The low-income family is going to feel the pinch a lot sooner than fund managers or the execs who use their services for hedging. Let's say the Fed takes a hard line or Congress outlaws hedge funds. Who looses: The companies that hedge, the 7 or 8-figure earners that sold hedges or the service company that worked for them?

I'm not railing against anything. I don't begrudge fund managers their living or the people who empty their trash cans. Ain't a free market grand?

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 20:30:05 EDT

dogma :

said by No_Strings :

Hedge fund managers are hardly preying on the weak and helpless. They are working with the largest, wealthiest companies on the planet - the kind you rail against.

Sometimes, I worry about you.

;)

Sometimes I worry about myself.

Hedge fund managers sell packages like MBS's to large, very qualified investors - true. That's not what I am "railing" against.

Earlier in this same thread/topic someone said:

said by No_Strings :

...State funds is just another way of saying someone's picking my pocket to help someone else without my consent. Welfare is just that, corporate or not. ...Why not reward low-income people more directly? Give them a home. No reason they should have to work/save like the rest of us. Or just give them cash. Better yet, give them a Prius and a Fastrak transponder. I hear there are some sweet deals on houses in Riverside & San Bernardino counties.

It's exposing the welfare...for the wealthiest ..that I have a problem with. Why reward high-income people/corporations directly or indirectly. State funds or Federal funds? All of these funds come from taxpayers (when the dollar I earn today, only buys .75¢ in goods and services tomorrow, because the Fed has diluted the money supply in an "operation" to bailout the richest people, that is a tax).

With respect to these same "wealthy" investors:

said by U.K. Times--> »business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b···6735.ece :
Warren Buffett, the third-richest man in the world, has criticised the US tax system for allowing him to pay a lower rate than his secretary and his cleaner.

These same investors and major fund managers don't even pay their fair share of taxes...but have their hats out looking for gub'munt bailouts and handouts. So at the end of the day, the majority of taxpayers, which can be argued describe the weaker and more helpless...comparatively, get taken advantage of.

We are very quick to deny that under privileged family a couple bucks from the till when they want subsidised housing:

said by No_Strings :

My objection to subsidizing housing for someone earning $70K is the same as for someone earning $10 or even less.
Affordable housing should be defined by market rates for income and property values, not by some government entity.

...then why defend the wealthy when their handouts/subsidies & government market intervention is an exponential magnitude of order in comparison.

Hopefully we are "railing" against the same injustice.

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 16:59:19 EDT

No_Strings : Hedge funds are used by large institutions to mitigate risk - foreign currency fluctuations being a primary use, but in essence it's placing a small bet with big odds on the visitors when you have a large bet with good odds on the home team.

Hedge fund managers are hardly preying on the weak and helpless. They are working with the largest, wealthiest companies on the planet - the kind you rail against.

Sometimes, I worry about you.

;)

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 16:20:11 EDT

aztecnology :

said by No_Strings :

I'm simply drawing a line between minor financial market adjustments and the collapse of Western society as built on a shaky house of cards.

Good points, and I happen to think that we are somehwhere in between. I think job losses will continue in and around housing, corporate earnings will suffer, consumption will slow down and I think that a weak holdiay season for retailers will officially move us into recession...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 16:01:00 EDT

dogma :

said by No_Strings :

Oh, please.

There's more government oversight in the financial markets than you can shake a stick at.

...ummm, not exactly:

said by ICI/FAQ's--> »www.ici.org/funds/abt/faqs_hedge.html :
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds-unlike mutual funds-are not required to register with the SEC. They issue securities in "private offerings" not registered with the SEC under the Securities Act of 1933. Furthermore, hedge funds are not required to make periodic reports under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Like mutual funds and other securities market participants, hedge funds are subject to prohibitions against fraud, and their managers have the same fiduciary duties as other investment advisers.

You may recall from high school civics or history, these "laws & regulations" stemmed from the absolute collapse of the so-called markets in the late 1920's. Which seeded the Great Depression. When we bet (risk) with other peoples money, or worse, pretend-money in the form of paper loans, things don't turn out very well.

These "Hard-working folks who are trying to put food on the table and make a better lives for themselves and their families" are not the butchers, bakers, and candle stick makers of our economy. They are a very, very small group of (you are correct:) moneychangers. They worked very hard at finding a loop-hole in the SEC code, and paying the lobbyist to make it stick (Kudos for their work ethic).

I did not say we should hang them from the nearest tree, I simply likened them to other "professions" that prey on human weaknesses. A fool and his money are soon parted, and I have little sympathy for the fool in the equation as well.

said by No_Strings :

The Federal Reserve has taken two major actions so far in an attempt to ensure an adequate supply of currency for borrowing and is arm-twisting some of the major lenders to take advantage of those actions.

You do realize the Federal reserve "gets" its money to "take major actions" by creating it out of thin air:

said by MSNBC--> »www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20218020/ and »blogs.wsj.com/economics/2007/08/···-primer/ :
Synopsis: "When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money . . . The Federal Reserve is a total moneymaking machine. It can issue money or checks. And it never has a problem making its checks good because it can obtain the $5 and $10 bills necessary to cover its check simply by asking the Treasury Department's Bureau of Printing and Engraving to print them."

In last weeks case, the "Fed" bought MBS's with money IT did not have on it's balance sheets: ( »www.federalreserve.gov/generalin···rs.htm#6 ), thus "manufacturing" money out of thin air. In theory, these same institutions are suppose to buy them back with interest in 15 days. It [the Fed] has the legal right to make such moves, again a legacy from the post depression days. But what happens here is two things, the money supply gets diluted making my hard earned dollar less valuable, and the moneychangers (and their commissions) do not get punished for pimping worthless paper. As a matter of fact they get rewarded.

said by No_Strings :

You can decry our consumer greed as the root of all evil, but it's no different if I offer you three buckskins for that shiny rock you found than offering you the profits from my last stock sale for that shiny RV you're driving.

You're trying to make a social issue out of a simple economic process that has been with us forever.

Here's the difference; If I find out you're stock sale was utterly worthless, or my RV was a plywood mockup, we don't get made whole again by the gub'ment [read: the TAXPAYERS] using the rationale that it's "good for the overall economy".

said by CurtesyFlush :

Frankly, I'm surprised he didn't weave teevee into his rant.

You're right. I forgot, dammit!

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 15:55:48 EDT

aztecnology : Nah. Although it did give CFC a bounce today...

Buffett Tells CNBC: Countrywide Report Just Speculation
»www.cnbc.com/id/20350324

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 14:04:04 EDT

No_Strings : I should be clear that I'm not trivializing dogma 's informed opinions on the economy or the limited financial crisis occurring. These are legitimate issues and even the casual investor (homeowner, renter or 401K holder) should be paying attention.

I'm simply drawing a line between minor financial market adjustments and the collapse of Western society as built on a shaky house of cards.

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 13:41:22 EDT

CurtesyFlush : Frankly, I'm surprised he didn't weave teevee into his rant.

Re: The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 13:34:17 EDT

No_Strings :

said by dogma :

When in reality the firm packaging that fund just wanted the commission. Among themselves (a very inbreed group), that's how they keep score and pecking order. By money only, none of them has a soul.

It is, and always has been; Buyer beware. Especially for investment instruments like these where there is zero government oversight. These Wall St. firms put greedy investors (sellers) together with greedy buyers, and made 3.5% on every $ Billion/sold in fees.

I see no difference between Stock/Investment brokers and Drug dealers, pimps, or practicing attorneys. And I believe in the legalization of drugs and prostitution. Vice is vice.

Oh, please.

There's more government oversight in the financial markets than you can shake a stick at.

No souls? Hard-working folks who are trying to put food on the table and make a better lives for themselves and their families, more likely. Moneychangers are documented in the Bible. I suspect they've been around since the dawn of currency. The transactions are more complicated than they were in 43 A.D., but the finance industry provides immensely valuable services that people are willing to pay handsomely for.

Right now, there's a financial crisis, but not an economic crisis. Unlike when the S&L collapse occurred, the problems with mortgages and real estate are (so far) not accompanied by joblessness or other slowdowns in the economy. The stock market is only down 10%. A bear market is 20% or more. The Federal Reserve has taken two major actions so far in an attempt to ensure an adequate supply of currency for borrowing and is arm-twisting some of the major lenders to take advantage of those actions.

Economies, whether based on beads, shells and furs or on prisoner-made tennis shoes, German cars and derivatives, depend on people producing something and consuming things on which the market places value.

You can decry our consumer greed as the root of all evil, but it's no different if I offer you three buckskins for that shiny rock you found than offering you the profits from my last stock sale for that shiny RV you're driving.

You're trying to make a social issue out of a simple economic process that has been with us forever.

The Economy ~ Foreclosures: No relief in sight ~

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:54:53 EDT

dogma :

said by cnnMoney.com--> »money.cnn.com/2007/08/20/real_es···07082108 :
July foreclosures nearly double from last year; California where one in every eight Americans lives, had the most numerically - a total of 39,013 and one for every 333 households. That was nearly four times higher than a year ago.

California had six of the top 10 metro areas with the highest foreclosure rates led by Stockton, which was second only to Detroit among metro areas, Merced was third, Modesto fourth, Vallejo-Fairfield fifth, Riverside-San Bernardino eighth and Sacramento ninth.

This past winter, RealtyTrac had forecast a 33 percent increase in U.S. foreclosures for the year but now it's raised its outlook. "It's trending to close to 2 million now, 60 percent more than last year," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president for marketing.

And we are still nowhere near the "first" major reset peak. I think it has gotten to the point where there is no public/social shame in walking away from a home (and its loan). If that is indeed the case, expect even these foreclosure rates to triple or quadruple...month over month.

Why struggle with an oppressive mortgage when there is no more "pride of ownership"?? It's frankly stupid financially. Even with the new BK laws, it would be cheaper to rent, and a helluva lot less stressful.

If half of the subprimes, a quarter of the alt-a's and an eighth of the A-paper walks (both the new mortgage and "cash-out" refi crowd)...there many be one in every 75 homes on the market. This would push prices back to 1996 levels. Or 60% - 75% losses in value. What that would do to the economy is unspeakable.

said by aztecnology :

Probably more. CW can't stay in business without all the junk they have been originating to generate cash flow and earnings, not to mention they are probably going to have to close most of their retail presence.

It depends on how many of those loans they sold into the capital markets...or perhaps not. They are still a bank (to a degree: »https://bank.countrywide.com/ ), and they service many of the mortgages. They just have no capital coming in to loan anymore.

Like Jig, I still can't figure out exactly who holds these titles as collateral for these "securities". The same companies who service the loans are the same ones that handle the REO's as well.

said by jig :

sometimes, the limit of just one thumbs up just doesn't seem just. thanks much, dogma.

Thanks jig. I am glad you seemed to understand that (I had a hard time).

At the end of the day, I think its simple human greed, coupled with our religion of consumerism. Unchecked capitalism. hedge Funds being sold to investors as "solid", mortgage [read: real estate] backed. When in reality the firm packaging that fund just wanted the commission. Among themselves (a very inbreed group), that's how they keep score and pecking order. By money only, none of them has a soul.

It is, and always has been; Buyer beware. Especially for investment instruments like these where there is zero government oversight. These Wall St. firms put greedy investors (sellers) together with greedy buyers, and made 3.5% on every $ Billion/sold in fees.

I see no difference between Stock/Investment brokers and Drug dealers, pimps, or practicing attorneys. And I believe in the legalization of drugs and prostitution. Vice is vice.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 12:05:49 EDT

Kibbles :

said by aztecnology :

I think bankruptcy is on the horizon, and I don't see anyone stepping in to buy them, when any potential suitor will probably have the ability to cherry pick the assets in BK...

Looks like CW maybe getting a new owner?
»news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070821/bs_···ett_dc_2

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 20 Aug 2007 13:09:17 EDT

aztecnology : Probably more. CW can't stay in business without all the junk they have been originating to generate cash flow and earnings, not to mention they are probably going to have to close most of their retail presence. I think bankruptcy is on the horizon, and I don't see anyone stepping in to buy them, when any potential suitor will probably have the ability to cherry pick the assets in BK...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 20 Aug 2007 11:41:11 EDT

Kibbles : How many Countrywide employee's have to be laid off to save a few billion dollars :o my guess ~ 30%

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 20 Aug 2007 10:31:12 EDT

aztecnology : I've been posting and following the stock market crashing thread in the pub, and there is similar discussion going on about housing and the credit crunch. A countrywide employee was posting and has given tremendous insights to the industry and what's been going on...

»Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now

»Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now

»Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now

»Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 19 Aug 2007 21:17:06 EDT

jig : well, i was hoping there were a lot of people in the middle-middle low income range were going to be smart and ready to jump in at an ebb. maybe that's not the case. and i wasn't thinking before that the new title owners (after default) might only sell to their friends (you maybe have heard some recent stories about mortgages only being available to 800 credit scores and such, which might be bunk).

we'll see. the situation above involves a lot of savvy.

and i thought my robin hood scenario always favored those with cash reserves who make smart investments...
--
A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 19 Aug 2007 21:01:02 EDT

No_Strings : Ah, so the big economic collapse that will level the playing field by redistributing the wealth is playing out ... except it's not exactly the Robin Hood scenario you were hoping for. People with cash reserves and who made/make smart investments will benefit or ride it out. The ones who took huge risks or timed it poorly will suffer.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 19 Aug 2007 20:54:11 EDT

jig : sometimes, the limit of just one thumbs up just doesn't seem just. thanks much, dogma.

the reason why i asked was less about bail out, and more about a mass transfer of ownership.

lets say the hedge funds own the property once the borrower defaults (Lovehound seemed to think i was talking about the lenders going defunct, but that wasn't what i meant to ask). basically, what i'm seeing is a bunch of rich people/corporations pumping the market so that long time owners will sell and move out of the most desired properties. they see a decent peak, so they get out and buy elsewhere. the owners that replace them are low-earners with bad loans just barely scraping by with interest rates as low as they are now. one little burp, and the market is covered in borrower blood.

but, the rich people/corporations now own the property. they've paid a huge price, but they have the title to what is probably the best property to own, anywhere in the world. here's where the bail-out comes in. my guess is that if the market goes really south, the lobbyists will get some kind of exaction from the feds... and at the very least, they can write off the drop in value against gains elsewhere. my guess is that it could get so bad that some smarty will suggest and get some kind of property tax forgiveness for any property with a default. so, the hedge funds pay a lot but in the end get great property, a tax offset that hides their gains elsewhere (during the republican administration) and probably a property tax benefit as well as bail-out cash. and you know the related auditing of who gets what is going to be completely opaque because all the legislation is going to be rushed.

so here's a kind of summation of scenario. i'm some rich guy or corporation with suburban property that i know i'm going to take a bath on in the near future, because city life is getting pretty bad and all the bomb scares. risk is high, value is already near some peak. so, i find a way to artificially pump the market by allowing the plebes to borrow themselves silly. they get enough money to buy out me and my friends, as well as some old people holding onto their property we haven't been able to move in years. my friends and i are funding the loans, but we're also getting paid on the back end because the loans are going to pay us for our (now) hugely inflated property. there is some capital gains and other transfer losses, but maybe we're covered by the huge market up-tick. and, we now own the title on our old property as well as the titles on property we weren't able to buy before because the geriatric crowd was waiting, endlessly. the local governments are loving this because property taxes are being favorably reassessed everywhere.

now comes the rise in interest rates. the plebes default all over the place. we lose the cash, but we get the titles, and we start screaming for federal bailout (and we offset gains as best we can). the feds and locals crumble, property taxes on default properties are halved either because we ask for it or because we buy the property back from our hedge fund at some low re-assessed value. same situation as before, but we now own more property (our country house, our old house, and the geriatric house next door), and we probably have some sweet deal with both the federal and state governments.

and now, we don't sell, we rent.

there are a lot of holes, and it's totally a tin foil hat thing, and it doesn't seem to jibe with retirement fund investing (except that it's one way to make the local govts bend to your bail-out requests, retirees are their votes).

i would love to know who owns the property after a fed bail out of a non-jumbo loan (or the non-jumbo portion). do the feds then own the property and send it to auction?

anyway, think of it as a gigantic redistribution of property. and wealth too, i suppose, since the plebes don't come to the table completely skint. it's taking candy from poor babies, i guess.

anyway, my completely insane script aside, your post was great. thanks.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 19 Aug 2007 15:23:25 EDT

dogma :

said by Lovehound :

And also, a large number of defaults will cause home prices to decline (by flooding a shrinking market) so all our homes will be worth less. Anybody who purchased their homes during this sub-prime debacle is likely to suffer serious losses, and possibly go into negative equity. That shouldn't be a problem if they keep making payments...

Even if one can afford it, why pay $4500/Mo. for a house one bought 3 years ago at $600K, whose rates have now adjusted to 13%? When the foreclosed house next door is now renting out for $2200/Mo? And it's value is $295K?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 19 Aug 2007 15:16:03 EDT

dogma :

said by jig :

i was wondering...

You hit the nail on the head...everybody is wondering. That's the problem. Two weeks ago, the largest French bank, with all of their financial minds couldn't solve the riddle either, and decided to freeze all assets of "funds" involved in "mortgage backed securities". They didn't know who owned what, or more importantly, where the risk was. This began the major declines.

I have been trying to figure this out for Months myself. Every day some new piece of info emerges. But heres what I have so far.

"Wall Street", or the Investment houses like Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, and hundreds of others make money by putting investors (and their money) together with borrowers & buyers with sellers in the form of securities like stocks and bonds. [stocks = equity/part ownership - bonds = loan] They, like any good casino, charge a percentage of the deal to all sides. A commission.

They make metric shitloads of money pushing this paper. Getting their commissions. They can get a couple bucks when you or I buy shares in Apple @ $122.06/share...or they can get a couple hundred million on a single transaction that is much larger.

They are incentivized to put big deals on the table. You and me can't buy into them...at least not directly. If you have a pension, or managed retirement plan, or the State/City taxes we pay may buy into "hedge funds" created by these same Wall Street firms. Hedge funds are the private [equity] betting tables (I am not kidding) in the back of the casino for the very, very wealthy. Only the Vegas casino's wish they had a room with no government oversight.

Hedge funds are very very risky, investments that are not overseen by anyone. A private poker party. The idea is to make a little more than the market returns thus "hedging" ones bets. With the fund manager ONLY getting paid if the fund is going up in value consistently.

The Feds buys (guarantee's) mortgage loans via FreddieMac & FannieMae in loan values up to $417K. Anything over that is called a Jumbo loan. So banks actually would risk their depositors money by loaning out those size transactions. They do, but very carefully, higher rates, tighter credit standards, and something called "due diligence"; making sure everything is as the borrower says it is.

So home values go up faster than the feds will go, thus leaving a void in the marketplace. Some financial boy-genius devises a scheme to finance 1000's of home loans, bundle them all up in a pretty package, and sell them as a hedge fund called mortgage backed securities (sounds good right?). Perhaps even interlace this package with other loans to businesses. Remember, the bigger the deal, the more commission the house makes.

But in order for that fund manager to sell a $1 Billion package (and get his $30 Million commission), gee wiz, they would need to loan out thousands of individual home loans...in a competitive market. No problem, simply give the loans to anyone that can fog a mirror. It's still securitized by that persons property.

Since it's not the managers money, he can send legions of loan sellers out by building a MLM (Multi Level marketing) organization...which include all those "mortgage" companies we hear about now. Everyone gets paid...the borrower in the form of "cash out & pride of ownership", the loan broker who may have made as much as 6% on the loan, the Real Estate agent, the mortgage company via stock appreciation, and of course our fund manager buddy at the investment house who now has his "fund" full.

Some smaller funds were merged with others, to create a new hedge fund, and thus another $30 Million commission to some guy and on and on. Resold and resold in and out of the same hands, Until god only knows who owns (has invested in) what.

There is legal title on all homes. They may be serviced by banks, but the title resides with the true lender, or who ever bought the note. It has value and is in first position. Most likely the company that is servicing the mortgage will maintain the property as an agent for the true owner...which ownership may be dynamic. Since not all loans are hedge funded subprimes, and vis-a-versa, the banks know who owns what.

Even with all that, I am not sure. Financial people speak in a bullshit language designed to confuse:

said by MBS Finance Professor, Haas School of business :
Financial market innovation in the form of credit derivatives has broadened the range of investors willing and able to hold risky new assets like securities backed by subprime mortgages, despite the fact the markets for such securities are both illiquid and non-transparent. Proprietary quantitative trading models, designed by the best possible minds using the best possible information technology, have yielded lemming-like behavior that has fed market gyrations. And the extent and location of market losses are hidden behind hedge fund walls.

..while we're nodding in agreement so we look smart, trying to figure out what the hell they are talking about, our pocket is picked clean by the biggest group of crooks in history. There are many taxpayers who scream about some poor welfare mom getting $700. That same taxpayer will share in the repayment of $2 - $8 Trillion of handout/welfare money paid directly to the most wealthy individuals.--> »money.cnn.com/2007/08/17/comment···ndex.htm

And so it goes.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 19 Aug 2007 14:04:20 EDT

Lovehound : The borrower is not hurt at all if the lender goes bankrupt. When the lender goes bankrupt their investors are the losers (and the employees who lose their jobs).

The borrowers' mortgages are contracts and as long as they continue to make their payments their contracts will protect them, and whoever buys the loans must honor the original terms of these contracts.

The lenders going bankrupt will have their assets (the mortgages) transferred to receivers who will mind the business until bankruptcy court decides who will buy the assets. The money raised from this sale will go to defraying the losses of the investors. They are likely to get at least some percentage of their investment back, possibly not much though.

The banks don't get to charge the borrowers anything in this transaction. That would be a change in the terms of the contract (mortgage) and I'm sure no lender would be allowed to add terms that would harm the borrowers if the lenders went bankrupt.

This may seem counter intuitive since we are all used to the banks shafting us with unexpected fees whenever they like, but this is that rare case where the bank takes it in the shorts and we all get to chortle and snerk. Of course these lenders going broke will not be good for the economy so we taxpayers haven't entirely avoided negative effects, and if the government bails out lenders or borrowers then that will be a transfer of money from careful borrowers/taxpayers like you and I to greedy mortgage banks and careless borrowers, so that hits us right in our wallets.

And also, a large number of defaults will cause home prices to decline (by flooding a shrinking market) so all our homes will be worth less. Anybody who purchased their homes during this sub-prime debacle is likely to suffer serious losses, and possibly go into negative equity. That shouldn't be a problem if they keep making payments (and are able to) because house prices are likely to eventually return to present levels and eventually surpass them. It shouldn't be a problem to homeowners like myself because I've owned my house for 30 years and purchased it for a small fraction of its current value. Any gain I had during this recent run up was an illusion so I'm not losing any actual money, and when I sell my house and move, the replacement house will cost less so it's a wash for me.

Does that 'splain it better? :)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 19 Aug 2007 01:03:47 EDT

jig : i was wondering...

i heard the other day that hedge funds are what's loaned the money out to the sub prime borrowers, through banks.

so if someone defaults, do both the borrowers and the hedge funds lose out to the banks? who owns the title after a default, the bank or the hedge fund? does the bank just charge fees both ways and walk away?
--
A man compounded of law and gospel is able to cheat a whole country with his religion and then destroy them under color of law. -Ben Franklin

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 18 Aug 2007 16:12:54 EDT

Lovehound :

said by Kibbles :

»news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070816/ap_···reet_225

Looks like it may happen....what happens to the mortgages it wrote in the past 3 months or the ones it just wrote yesterday?

If the lender goes broke the mortgages get sold by whoever buys the assets of the lender. Mortgages have value and may be bought or sold. So don't get the idea that the lender went broke so everybody's mortgages disappear. :)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 16 Aug 2007 12:43:46 EDT

aztecnology : Countrywide is currently down over 20% today...
-20.95%
»www.cnbc.com/id/15837290?q=cfc

DJIA down over 300!

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 16 Aug 2007 10:43:44 EDT

aztecnology :

said by CurtesyFlush :

Where'd you see the down 30 part? I see only a little over 17.

I should have clarified, I meant daily percentages the last couple days, it was down 13% yesterday, then it was down 10% overnight, and today its down 10%...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 16 Aug 2007 10:33:28 EDT

Kibbles :

said by CurtesyFlush :

Where'd you see the down 30 part? I see only a little over 17.

»finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CFC&t=3m

I see little bit more over the past 3 months :p

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 16 Aug 2007 10:21:27 EDT

CurtesyFlush : Where'd you see the down 30 part? I see only a little over 17.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 16 Aug 2007 10:05:45 EDT

Kibbles : »news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070816/ap_···reet_225

Looks like it may happen....what happens to the mortgages it wrote in the past 3 months or the ones it just wrote yesterday?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 16 Aug 2007 09:49:18 EDT

aztecnology : Man Countrywide has just been taken to the butcher, cuz its getting slaughtered. Down 30% in 24 hours. Bankruptcy must be on the horizon.

Housing disappoints again, no surprise there, and this could be what, 6-7 straight days in decline for the DJIA...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 15 Aug 2007 18:53:57 EDT

Kibbles : »finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=3m :o

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 14 Aug 2007 10:21:12 EDT

aztecnology : Barometers of the economy:

Wal-Mart Profit Falls Short of Expectations, Slashes Forecast -

Wal-Mart Stores Tuesday posted quarterly sales and profit that fell short of expectations, and lowered its earnings forecast, saying that customers remain under economic pressure.

"It is no secret that many customers are running out of money toward the end of the month," Scott said on a recorded conference call, citing consumer pressures ranging from high gas prices to the U.S. housing slump.
»www.cnbc.com/id/20257856

Home Depot Profit Falls 15% on Weak Housing Market -

Home improvement retailer Home Depot said second-quarter net income fell 15% as sales suffered amid the weak U.S. housing market.
»www.cnbc.com/id/20258230
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 10 Aug 2007 00:09:58 EDT

Kibbles : I don't think the prices in this area will decline as fast as say.. Temecula...but eventually it will.

I already sent an e-mail to them that with all that is going with the housing prices dropping,mortgages companies tightening up and so on....now is not a good time for me to risk refinancing a house that is near several others that are going to be resold for over 200k less.

PS the house in in our Mother's Trust...currently I just manage it.

I was watching Bloomberg it is unsettling to see what is happening here..effecting other stock markets in Japan and Europe..I don't recall that happening when we had the last real estate price drops in 1993 and around 1998.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 23:36:43 EDT

Lovehound :

said by Kibbles :

They now want me to have the house so they can get their cash out....my older sister e-mailed me to sign the documents...a few months ago they wanted to keep it...then wanted 75k...then 100k...now 114k each.

Kibbles, I feel a DSLR brothership here (or I'm not sure of your gender, a sistership?) but you're a fool if you buy out your sister. Your co-owned house is a sinking ship, going down in a down market. Your sister wants you to buy her out because she's smart and perceptive and knows her investment is sinking, declining, fizzling, and she wants to stick you with the liability.

Don't be a fucking fool. Sell the damned house for whatever the market is and split your equity in whatever arrangement you have. If you can't sell it then lease it, pay the mortgage with the rental, and wait for a better market.

Don't even post any whining, bitching post a year or two from now when you've lost all your money and your sister is doing fine. I'll have no sympathy and I'll promise that I'll post, "I told you so!"

Don't be a chump Kibbles. Don't take that equity off your sister. You're buying a sinking ship.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 22:58:07 EDT

Kibbles :

said by aztecnology :

Why is it that they want you to have the house? (you probably already said earlier in the other post, but I forgot).

Why don't you sell at a low price and split whatevers left...?

They now want me to have the house so they can get their cash out....my older sister e-mailed me to sign the documents...a few months ago they wanted to keep it...then wanted 75k...then 100k...now 114k each.

I plan to fly to Texas this weekend and check out that development...I bet it is humid there....but you can't beat those prices.

Reguarding Countrywide

»biz.yahoo.com/ap/070808/countryw···tml?.v=1

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 21:27:04 EDT

supertbone :

said by aztecnology :

Wow another dramatic down day ~ Down 387!

"Stocks ended sharply lower on renewed fears about credit markets and global liquidity".
»www.cnbc.com/id/20185535

It is going to get bad tomorrow. Shares of CFC (Countrywide) went down 3.66 in afterhours trading when it was revealed in a filing to the SEC that "a prolonged period of poor conditions could have an adverse impact on our future earnings and financial condition."

They already admited publicly that things isn't over anytime soon.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 20:31:44 EDT

Kibbles : I was going to do a 5/1 ARM.. claimed income 8k LOL :) ... paid 2 points to drop the rate to about 7%.. FICO score is about 711...not bad considering I went BK ~ 4 years ago... PITI is ~ 3.3k a month... cash out ~ 236k

I did e-mail the sisters my 5 options...
1.I do nothing...squat in the house,rent out a room, untill hell freezes over or they evict me.
2.We all get 53k...spend 50k on the house... ~ 3 years from now sell the house.
3.Stick to the original plan...they get 75k now... 25k in 3 years.
4.We sell it and no matter how low we take the offer.

5.I move here and tell them GTFO :0

»www.kbhome.com/Community~CommID~···308.aspx

There are buyers in this area...but they don't want a "fixer uppper" and flippers are far and few.
Our best bet is to sell it to a Board & Care facility...they usually pay cash for a house.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 20:25:17 EDT

dogma :

said by aztecnology :

Why don't you sell at a low price and split whatevers left...?

IMO, there are absolutely no buyers that can possibly qualify for any home over $300K in California today (which means every home). Even if they could, why would they?

BTW, A no points 30/15 $100K HELOC, with 50% equity in a $750K home, the rates are 9.5% ... flawless 740+ FICO needed.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 20:14:00 EDT

dogma : I'm sorry, after seeing the best (good FICO) fixed rates for today as shown above...fua-ged-ahh-boudit. No points buy down at 10% Interest?? Thats with a 20% down payment of $110K assuming a $550K purchase price. OR, $21,000 in upfront points to get the rate to 6.788% Plus closing of another $15K? Must document $170K/year Income?? With a debt ratio of 33%?

So someone is going to hand over $150,000 cash...for the privilege of paying almost $4000.00 a month (PITI) for 30 years...to live where???

At this point, you guys may wind up eating that house yourselves. Perhaps you can rent/Lease it out, and each of you share the after-expense profits...perhaps $200/Month each. Until the market comes back.

Todays mortgage loan "deals"

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 20:13:02 EDT

aztecnology : Why is it that they want you to have the house? (you probably already said earlier in the other post, but I forgot).

Why don't you sell at a low price and split whatevers left...?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 19:00:38 EDT

Kibbles : »www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=···P_Jaz3Ak

Looks like the US mortgage problems is effecting the European economy.

This came back from our Attorney...he actually thinks I would agree to this :p

D gets $114,627.40 that could leave P with a distribution of $98,532.15 and the balance of $16,095.20 as a loan from P to Kibbles, with no refund to Kibbles."

They actually think with what is happening in the economy,housing/mortgage market that I willingly will take on a 556k mortgage...and have $0.00 left over...and still owe my sister $16,095.20.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 16:18:39 EDT

aztecnology : Wow another dramatic down day ~ Down 387!

"Stocks ended sharply lower on renewed fears about credit markets and global liquidity".
»www.cnbc.com/id/20185535

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 12:17:34 EDT

Lovehound : Anybody who would buy a house right now without selling another house (i.e. relocating) or who would take on an interest or greater interest in a house is a total fool. That's buying an investment that you know is going to go down. Sell the damned thing or bail out.

It still makes sense to do what I might do, sell my existing house and buy another house (relocate) at a comparable price. Both houses would be losing value at a similar rate, so my financial position wouldn't change and I'd be living in a new location I want to live in.

It's also a bad idea to trade up unless the difference is small. Any deal like that will probably be a better deal in two years.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 04:20:06 EDT

dogma :

said by Kibbles :

...but I loose a house whose property tax is about $800.00 a year.

Wrong answer. What you "loose" is a House Note.

Let me see, would I want $100K in my pocket right now, or a $4000 a Month house note (PITI) in an environment where every last indicator says the RE market is in full nose dive.

Hummmmm...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 03:02:57 EDT

Kibbles : The mortgage balance is 320k...if it is sold for ~ 650k we may end up with about 115k each...but I loose a house whose property tax is about $800.00 a year...aka prop 13.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 02:51:29 EDT

dogma : Will that move put you in a position to demand $114K? :) If you sell it for $550K, then I imagine each of you gets about $80K.

In 6-12 Months, $80K will be a 20% down payment on one of the homes across the street (or nearby). Leaving you with a $320K Mortgage of about $2000/Mo. (assuming conforming rates remain the same).

More importantly, it probably leaves you on speaking terms with the siblings.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 02:19:42 EDT

Kibbles : I knew there were a few foreclosures in the area...but not that many.

I just talked to my older sister who a month ago agreed to 75k now and 25k after 3 years....now she wants 89k and 15k later :o
Giving my other sister 114k from the refi...minus closing costs...that would leave me about 10k and a 556k mortgage. :p
She said and I quote " you could always borrow another 100k in 3-6 months" right now or in 3-6 months the house will be worth 100k less.
I guess the fact that her neighbors house in Temecula is for sale 220k less than theirs,which was bought 1 year ago, shows how much house values went up. ;)

Looks like I have to look to lease a house this week and give them the good news that I am resigning as Trustee which means they have to pay the mortgage and bills for the house which they think would sell for 675-696k.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 01:36:29 EDT

dogma : OK. Exhibit A. There are 50 properties that are currently in default, foreclosure auction date pending, or Bank owned (REO) located within a half mile of your target address. As you see, there are 519 defaults, 219 auctions, and 235 REO's in your zip.

Exhibits B & C are details on the two closest Defaults and Foreclosure Auction date properties.

The Realtor should be able to bring you a qualified buyer ASAP at $600K, right? I dunno. If I am a "qualified" buyer of a $600K+ home right now, I am literally like the last of the Mohicans. I should be able to name my tune, and the motivated-sellers will dance to it. I don't know of much more motivation than a default notice or an Auction date.

Why buy low-retail when I can buy below wholesale?

Exhibit A
Exhibit B
Exhibit C

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 01:23:08 EDT

Kibbles : »biz.yahoo.com/ap/070808/countryw···tml?.v=1

Very interesting....do rats still leave a ship before it sinks? :D

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 00:43:18 EDT

Lovehound :

said by Kibbles :

...and does not think the prices will go back up for another two or so years.

That agrees very well with my own assessment of the market.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 09 Aug 2007 00:19:00 EDT

Kibbles : The one on Pallas Way was a flip...is was sold for 570k last year...the "flippers" spent about 75-100k upgrading it...but could only sell it for 699k...is should have sold for 800k+.
The house on 24832 Mithra Ave was bought for for 810k earlier this year....but has been in foreclosure for 3+ months..the buyers paid 100k+ too much for it...it is in the same condition as mine...poor.

I talked to a local Realtor today...if I sold the house for ~ 650-675k..it should sell within a month...he thinks the selling price could drop as low as 600k in the next 6 months...and does not think the prices will go back up for another two or so years.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 23:05:10 EDT

aztecnology : For the last 9 months there are 3 comps within 1/2 mile of the address you gave:

Comparable 1
APN: 61912324 Document: 0000059097
Site Address: 24672 Rhea Dr, Mission Viejo, Ca 92691 Year Built: 1969
Use Code: Residential (Single Family Residence) Lot SqFt: 9775
Transfer Value: $631,000 Structure SqFt: 2167
Transfer Date: 01/29/2007 Bedrooms: 4
Assessed Value: $86,228 Bathrooms: 2.0

Comparable 2
APN: 61918317 Document: 0000259847
Site Address: 24702 Pallas Way, Mission Viejo, Ca 92691 Year Built: 1972
Use Code: Residential (Single Family Residence) Lot SqFt: 11700
Transfer Value: $699,000 Structure SqFt: 2253
Transfer Date: 04/23/2007 Bedrooms: 3
Assessed Value: $393,641 Bathrooms: 2.0

Comparable 3
APN: 61908303 Document: 0000392814
Site Address: 24292 Spartan St, Mission Viejo, Ca 92691 Year Built: 1967
Use Code: Residential (Single Family Residence) Lot SqFt: 8844
Transfer Value: $782,500 Structure SqFt: 2584
Transfer Date: 06/20/2007 Bedrooms: 5
Assessed Value: $726,199 Bathrooms: 3.0

--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 22:38:16 EDT

Kibbles :

said by dogma :

Give me your zip code and major cross streets for the house in question. I wanna see sumpthin'.

This is the same model in my neighborhood.

24511 Saturna Dr Mission Viejo CA 92691

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 19:59:24 EDT

aztecnology : I wouldn't hold my breath for a fed rate cut. Secondly if they did cut the fed funds rate it's likely that it will have more of an effect on your credit card than it will on your adjustable rate mortgage. Most ARM's are indexed to the LIBOR. Not that the Prime and LIBOR don't move in lockstep. The Chinese hold a lot of our debt and with upcoming olympics and elections are starting to play political games, like threatning to unload the treasuries which the dollar couldn't handle...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 19:57:26 EDT

dogma : Give me your zip code and major cross streets for the house in question. I wanna see sumpthin'.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 18:09:15 EDT

Kibbles : I was looking at comps that are for sale... DOM 100-300+ :o
Well at least the feds are supposed to say/do something around Sept 18...here is an idea..change the word resession to job adjustment. :D ..next year we are supposed to have a lot of job adjustments.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:06:16 EDT

aztecnology :

said by Kibbles :

Could we be over reacting to what is happening in the housing/mortgage market?

I still think we are under reacting, and a lot more correction is coming to the market...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 16:54:19 EDT

Kibbles :

= dogma
If you want to extract a measure of revenge on you're "greedy :p sisters", give them the house, and you take out $20K or whatever. It will be an albatross around their neck that will put them in an insane asylum. T

That thought did occur...the current mortgage is 320k at 5.15% ~ 2.2k a month..I doubt we will see those rates for a while.
The refi/cash-out will be 565k,3.2k a month 5/1 ARM at 7.25%.

I told both of them that if it does go up for sale there is enough money in the trust to pay for 3 months...after that we each have to pay ~ 900 a month...neither can afford that.
I doubt in this market it would sell in 3 months.
BTW the bank appraised it at 696k...and independant appraiser 675k...I estimate it to be worth close to 625k...the "fair market value" is supposed to be 685k and a CMA estimate is 800k. :p

Could we be over reacting to what is happening in the housing/mortgage market?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 15:02:39 EDT

aztecnology : Well said, and you touched on some of the larger ramifications that are on the horizon that we will be faced with.

said by dogma :

So all that borrowed money, all that debt was spent buying stuff. Cars, remodeling, durable goods, big-ticket items, plasma big screens, vacations, kids college, kids cars...you name it. This pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. All we have to show for it as a nation is a negative savings rate.

All of that borrowed money is gone now. So over the coming years, discretionary spending will be much, much lower. This probably will lead to a severe recession. The employment rate (as a result of all the spending of borrowed money) is high now, but in reality, our income vs. inflation (read: cost of living) is low. Unemployment may rise dramatically over the next few years.

On an anecdotal note i've talked to a few folks in the retail and restaurant biz, and discretionary spending seems to be down all the way around.

We know the automakers are hurting because of the housing/credit crunch, the big box retailers will be feeling the pinch especially through this holiday season that is coming upon us, as you noted, many have exhausted the house atm to fund their lifestyle.

And now the Jumbo mortgage conundrum for conforming loans with a value greater than $417,00, which as many know is the norm for a mortgage in SoCal. Subprime has decimated the lower end of the housing market, and now lenders are putting the squeeze to the best borrowers in the middle and higher end markets.

"Lenders -- having already slashed lending to subprime borrowers, as those with weak credit records are known -- now are jacking up rates on jumbo mortgages for prime borrowers. These mortgages exceed the $417,000 limit for loans eligible for purchase and guarantee by Fannie and Freddie".
»online.wsj.com/article/SB1186447···news_wsj

»www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=4···3&play=1

»www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hea···812.html
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 13:57:40 EDT

dogma :

said by Kibbles :

= Lovehound

Actually I'm beginning to wonder if renting isn't actually more economically sensible than buying.

I am thinking of doing that myself.

The question...if we have more foreclosures next year as well as mortgage companies failing...who is going to have a job to buy a house? :o

We will have more foreclosures next year, and the year after that. Most likely will be a record for that. But I have seen this before, albeit to a lesser degree. These cycles come and go, a 45% drop in home values over the next 5 years will not kill us by itself.

That's not what get my panties in a bunch. We can get through that. What really scares me in the coming near term is the fact that 75% of all of the mortgage financing activity over the past 6 years was refinancing.

Meaning the vast majority of home owners borrowed against their homes (hell, it was so easy), and took cash out to underwrite their lifestyles. This artificially propped up the entire economy during that period.

So all that borrowed money, all that debt was spent buying stuff. Cars, remodeling, durable goods, big-ticket items, plasma big screens, vacations, kids college, kids cars...you name it. This pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. All we have to show for it as a nation is a negative savings rate.

All of that borrowed money is gone now. So over the coming years, discretionary spending will be much, much lower. This probably will lead to a severe recession. The employment rate (as a result of all the spending of borrowed money) is high now, but in reality, our income vs. inflation (read: cost of living) is low. Unemployment may rise dramatically over the next few years.

Lets add into the mix health care and retirement benefits. As the baby boomer (like me) tide sweeps into older age, we will be a huge burden on the working population. Look at GM, they pay out $2 in retirement benefits to some retiree for every $1 they pay someone working. I can't see them not filing BK. But that just transfers a percentage of that benefit debt to the taxpayers. To put it perspective:

Nationally, according to the National Center for Policy Analysis, the future unfunded Medicare debt will be greater than $60 trillion. The global market value of all the companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange is about $20 trillion.

And it only gets worse from there. I read about "experts" who want the Fed to lower rates, so we can borrow more money.

I need more Meth to overcome my Meth addiction. Insane.

How does this all relate to us? IMO, I wouldn't be betting to heavily on future economic growth...and I am talking about 10 years out. Unless we allow about 50 Million (young) illegals (cheap labor) into the country to help rebuild our industrial productivity. Otherwise, we just wait until our standard of living matches that of China and India (where their wages rise and ours fall), and at that time, it will be more cost effective to produce goods here again.

If you want to extract a measure of revenge on you're "greedy :p sisters", give them the house, and you take out $20K or whatever. It will be an albatross around their neck that will put them in an insane asylum. Then you sell everything you have, and move to Canada or Costa Rica, or New Zealand and buy a house outright.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 13:02:37 EDT

Lovehound :

said by Kibbles :

= Lovehound
Another thing that will help me is that I won't need to live near employment since I won't be working, so I can move to an area with higher crime rates which may also have lower property values because of that.

Fixed :D

According to MBA sales were up.

»www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=···fer=news

Lovehound have you had you house appraised or dome a CMA?
In this area houses are selling...but at about 20% below their original asking price some areas are worse...in Dove Canyon a customer has their house listed at 1.2 mil...but they lowered to to 1 ml after 6 months...and offers were 900-925k...so they took it off the market

I'm gonna have to fwap you! ;)

I have only a general idea what my house is worth, from an on-line evaluator provided by my credit union that just looks at address, square footage, # bedrooms, bathrooms, etc. (They have a database that gets all that from my providing just the address.) I've also been looking at asking price around my neighborhood. I'm thinking of selling in early next year (my 30th anniversary) so in the next few months I think I'll have an RE agent I like over to discuss comps and what I need to do to get it in selling condition.

I would be moving to a much smaller city if I leave L.A. and I presume it would be a lower crime rate, although I'll check that before I move.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 12:19:03 EDT

Kibbles :

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 12:07:13 EDT

Lovehound :

said by jinjimbob :

It might help if you think of buying a house as having somewhere to live, not so much as an investment.

Renting will always cost more of the long run, rents go up, fixed mortgages do not.

I think of a house as a necessary investment, and as an investment it is necessary to consider the financial effects of moving, trading up, trading down, relocating...

I'm near retirement and a long time home owner, so it makes no sense for me to mortgage anything. However, my house is the majority of my net worth, money I'll never be able to earn again, so every move I make has serious financial implications.

One alternative I have is to sell my house, then invest the money and use the interest to pay rent, but only for a short period (less than 2 years). In a down market that might actually make sense, sell now, then buy a house near (but not past) the 2 year period and get a better price because the whole market has dropped.

Another thing that will help me is that I won't need to live near employment since I won't be working, so I can move to an area with poor employment prospects which may also have lower property values because of that. I'm hoping to get at least some advantage from my changing status and perhaps changing locale.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 10:22:19 EDT

Kibbles :

said by Lovehound :

Kibbles I really didn't understand your point. Please spell it out for us 'tards.

I am beginning to think anyone buying a house right now would be making a big mistake. :mad: ..the next year or two the prices will continue to drop as more go into foreclosure.
It is estimated 7 million homes will go into foreclosure by the end of this year and another 7 million next year.

The ironic part is even though housing prices have dropped in CA...they are still too expensive for the average family to afford...and with the credit market tightening up...it will be even more dificult for anyone to qualify...what a mess.

Now all I have to do is sell the house for 800k...but I bet I will get offers for 700k. :p

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 08 Aug 2007 03:33:55 EDT

jinjimbob :

said by Lovehound :

said by dogma :

Turn out the lights...the parties over... all good things must end....

FM, if you are reading this, you may want to consider leasing your home out...that's what I plan on doing.

I never considered this a good thing. IMO the huge escalation in house prices was a de facto devaluation of the dollar. By the same token, if house prices fall back to reasonable levels then that would be restoration of part of the loss. (I'm one of the very few people who has cash in the bank, and lives a lifestyle that permits me to save part of my income.)

I'm beginning to wonder if I should lease my house too since I want to move but don't want to pull the pin on the 2-year period to reinvest or pay capital gains. I've owned this house for 30 years so I'd have a horrendous tax bill (after my $250K exemption), one I don't want to be obligated to pay.

Actually I'm beginning to wonder if renting isn't actually more economically sensible than buying.

The 2 year time period is the time you have to buy another house that is at least the value of your current house minus $250k.
It might help if you think of buying a house as having somewhere to live, not so much as an investment.

Renting will always cost more of the long run, rents go up, fixed mortgages do not.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 07 Aug 2007 21:47:07 EDT

Lovehound : Kibbles I really didn't understand your point. Please spell it out for us 'tards.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 07 Aug 2007 20:41:19 EDT

Kibbles :

= Lovehound

Actually I'm beginning to wonder if renting isn't actually more economically sensible than buying.

I am thinking of doing that myself.
If I refinance my house and give cash to my greedy :p sisters...my payment will be $3,200.00 a month...with the write offs each year it is actually close to 2.6k a month.
If we sell it... I will have ~ 120k to invest for 2-3 years and end up with ~ 175k...if I keep the house then sell it in 3 years...I will end up with ~ 175k....but I figure with a rental I can walk away to a cheaper one.

The question...if we have more foreclosures next year as well as mortgage companies failing...who is going to have a job to buy a house? :o

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 07 Aug 2007 14:47:19 EDT

Lovehound :

said by dogma :

Turn out the lights...the parties over... all good things must end....

FM, if you are reading this, you may want to consider leasing your home out...that's what I plan on doing.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 07 Aug 2007 14:12:37 EDT

dogma :

said by CNN/Money.com--> »money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/real_es···07080711 :
Wells Fargo, one of the nation's biggest mortgage lenders, raised the interest rates on it 30-year, fixed-rate, non-conforming (AKA jumbo) loan to 8 percent last week, up from 6.875 percent. Other lenders followed suit and more are likely to join them.

Turn out the lights...the parties over... all good things must end.

IMO, Banks are basically saying no more new home loans in California. Period. Since the average home loan in Sunny Cally would be a "Jumbo".

The rate jump means the monthly bill for a $600,000 mortgage would hit $4,403, compared to $3,942 previously, an increase of $461.(which really equates to a $5200/mo. fully burdened mortgage nut)

Since Sub-Primes are long gone and Alt-A's just vanished last week, a household would need to document $230K/year of real income to afford a "average" home in California that's is a step above a "hovel".

That ain't gonna happen. So the only thing that's left is a [continuing] downward free fall of home values. Again, IMO.

FM, if you are reading this, you may want to consider leasing your home out...that's what I plan on doing.

819 NORTH ZEYN STREET, Anaheim, CA 92805** 995 s.f., asking $450,000. 10% down puts it under "Jumbo", 30yr fixed PMI=$3000/Mo.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 19:48:03 EDT

Kibbles :

= dogma

House value: $512,921.61
Loan value: $462,921.61
Monthly Principal+Interest: $2,775.45
Monthly Prop Tax+Insurance: $760.15
Monthly PMI: $300.90
Down Payment: 9.75%
Total in payments per Month: $3,835.00

Closing costs are not included in this calculation.

Closing costs could be close to 21k...but with the rate hikes they would need to buy down the points..so that is an additional ~ 6k...so closing costs would be close to 28k

Unfortunately that couple would have qualified for that loan on Friday...but not today. :p

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 19:40:42 EDT

Kibbles : Did I mention according to the Chapman Report,it was on a local OC channel this past weekend,that foreclosures in OC are up 90% compared to last year. :o

BTW there is affordable aka low income housing being built near me.. Aliso Ridge...a 1 bedroom house is 375k...but it is being pushed back 2+ years do to lawsuits by people who do not want it built.

For those who live in OC..."low income" is a family of 1-2 that makes less than 70k a year.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 14:51:32 EDT

dogma :

said by Lovehound :

And that says it all. If average people can't afford to buy houses then homeowners won't be able to sell them, and if not then supply and demand will cause house prices to drop. Only when houses reach prices that average people can afford will house prices stabilize.

I think that lower rates would help stabilize prices, but that is just not a realistic possibility in my opinion. At least for the short term interest is headed up.

The tightening of lending qualifications make this even more certain, restricting the market to people who can really make the payments instead of the smoke and mirrors lending of the last few years (coupled with very low interest rates).

Interest rates are going up and housing prices are going to continue dropping. It's an inevitable cycle.

BTW that hovel for $321K is a real mind blower!

It seems the prime rates will remain the same, we will see tomorrow if the Fed makes any adjustments. Like you say, it's the lending qualifications that turn the lights out on this party we have been having over the past 5 years.

I am guessing this "hovel" (and that's exactly what it is) is priced where it's at because that may be whats owed on it. A neighbor of my mom's, inherited his house when his mother past a few years ago. At that time it was free and clear. This is a guy I grew up with, a confirmed crack head who hasn't had a job in 20 years, was able to borrow $361K against that house.

It is scheduled for foreclosure auction Aug 8.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:48:29 EDT

Lovehound :

said by dogma :

So the average California household can reasonably afford a home that simply doesn't exist in California - California math.

And that says it all. If average people can't afford to buy houses then homeowners won't be able to sell them, and if not then supply and demand will cause house prices to drop. Only when houses reach prices that average people can afford will house prices stabilize.

I think that lower rates would help stabilize prices, but that is just not a realistic possibility in my opinion. At least for the short term interest is headed up.

The tightening of lending qualifications make this even more certain, restricting the market to people who can really make the payments instead of the smoke and mirrors lending of the last few years (coupled with very low interest rates).

Interest rates are going up and housing prices are going to continue dropping. It's an inevitable cycle.

BTW that hovel for $321K is a real mind blower!

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 13:07:13 EDT

dogma :

said by aztecnology :

...Bernanke himself says that housing needs to be supported by income, which use to be the standard and will need to be again.

Median incomes do not support median house prices...

April 2006 * Median home price in CA increased 13% to $561,350 in March 2006 when compared to a year ago.
From--> »www.empirefresno.com/2006-califo···rice.htm

Median CA Home income April 2006: $49,894
From--> »en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_···d_States

The "average" California Household can afford a $182K House per "normal" underwriting guidelines. (This is what aztecnology is talking about). When I searched for a $182K home in L.A. & O.C., this is what i got back from ziprealty:

"Your search didn't find any results.
Please return to the search page and broaden your search criteria."

Cheapest I found is pictured above (Didn't search condo's or manufactured homes).

If a household had a $150,000 per year income with no debts, The most house they could afford is $513K, which isn't quite the "median". Below are the calculations on a straight 6% fixed 30-year using the "reality" guidelines of Affordability, with a $50K cash downstroke.

Affordability Calculator Results
From--> »www.homefair.com/mortgage_and_fi···ults.asp
We must use the 30% amount of 3,750.00 for PITI* - because this value is lower than the amount 4,875.00 calculated using the 39% monthly debt value.

*PITI=Principal + Interest + Property Tax + Homeowner’s Insurance

Your interest rate of 6.00% over 30 years means every dollar you pay each month buys you $166.79 of loan.

You stated that Tax and Insurance would total 1.5% of the home value and you will have $50,000.00 to cover your down payment.

Unfortunately your down payment is less than 20% so you must pay Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI). That's an extra 0.78% of your loan each year.

House value: $512,921.61
Loan value: $462,921.61
Monthly Principal+Interest: $2,775.45
Monthly Prop Tax+Insurance: $760.15
Monthly PMI: $300.90
Down Payment: 9.75%
Total in payments per Month: $3,835.00

Closing costs are not included in this calculation.

So the average California household can reasonably afford a home that simply doesn't exist in California - California math.

Cheapest house for sale in LA/OC counties - 660 s.f.-borders Compton & Watts - Asking $321K

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 12:29:40 EDT

aztecnology : After the Cramer video, I meant to post this Peter Schiff video from Bloomberg, it's also very good...

»www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?cl···ID2E.asf

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 12:20:23 EDT

aztecnology :

said by Kibbles :

Cramer " i sold all my real estate" :o

I wonder if the feds dropped the prime...would there really be a rebound in the real estate/mortgage market?

Nope. Credit has already tightened, and interest rates I think are heading higher regardless of what the fed does.

If you watch the Shiff video above, Bernanke himself says that housing needs to be supported by income, which use to be the standard and will need to be again.

Median incomes do not support median house prices...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Mon, 06 Aug 2007 12:12:26 EDT

aztecnology : For the first time, other than a select few (Schiff & Roubini), the talking heads on the financial networks have started to change their tune...

»www.europac.net/Schiff-CNBC-8-2-07_lg.asp

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 05 Aug 2007 15:11:56 EDT

Kibbles : Cramer " i sold all my real estate" :o

I wonder if the feds dropped the prime...would there really be a rebound in the real estate/mortgage market?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 05 Aug 2007 14:22:26 EDT

aztecnology : Some recent Jim Cramer

"Plow over the Inland Empire"...

"No distinction between Prime and Subprime"...

"Just walk away"...

»www.youtube.com/watch?v=c7e9H4zTqk4

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 05 Aug 2007 02:13:36 EDT

PrntRhd :

said by Kibbles :

= dogma
Because the majority of this batch of defaults are "late model Sub-Primes", I think it's safe to bet NorCal's homes were funded by ARM/Option and other exotic products as well.

From what I read in San Francisco... close to 70% of the mortgages are ARM's...which will be resetting in the next few years....and Countrywide will have a lot resetting next year. :o
I still think the feds will step in,tighten up qualifications even more...and drop the prime rate by December.

Jim Cramer has a few words about it.

»video.msn.com/v/us/Money.htm?g=9···0ten&fg=

I remember the last time the US had this type of "recession" there were condo associations that had a 30% vacancy...they could not collect enough association dues to do basic maintenance.

Actually I spoke with a REIT guy up here, the real estate drop is supposed to be 14% in this area of Northern California. Builders are still throwing more houses up in this area, and THEY ARE STILL SELLING them. Lenders were doing stupid business and now there will be a correction. Shades of the S&L meltdown of a few years ago.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 04 Aug 2007 22:27:59 EDT

Lovehound : "And what makes you think an ant can't,
move a rubber tree plant?

Because they've got high hopes,
High hopes,
They've got high in the
Apple sky high hopes!
They've got high hopes!..."

:)

People are such 'tards...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 04 Aug 2007 16:53:38 EDT

No_Strings : Interestingly, most of the employees at AHM didn't see it coming. From the NYT:

Among the 1,400 or so people who lost their jobs here Friday, there were undoubtedly some who understood the macro and micro factors that led American Home Mortgage Investment Corporation, one of the largest and fastest-growing mortgage companies in the country, to crash in a heap this week, even as it was hiring employees by the dozen.

But most of the workers carrying rubber plants and boxes of family photos out of the company’s headquarters were account clerks, appraisers, computer technicians and loan brokers who said they were stunned to find themselves, some after years of employment, on the street with virtually no notice.

»www.nytimes.com/2007/08/04/nyreg···ffs.html

If only they'd been smart enough to read this forum, huh?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 04 Aug 2007 13:24:20 EDT

Rocky67 :

said by dogma :

Impac Funding & World Savings are next in the belly-up line.

World Savings won't exist in a few months. They've been acquired by Wachovia Bank. Re-branding of World's assets has already started.
--
"Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand." - Homer

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 04 Aug 2007 12:29:09 EDT

aztecnology : It's been an interesting recent two weeks. The price of a barrel of oil is at all time high's and gas prices at the pump went down 10 cents. The DJIA has given back most of the gains for the year. 2 Bear Sterns hedge funds have officially imploded, and more mortgage lenders are going extinct - »ml-implode.com/
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sat, 04 Aug 2007 02:03:33 EDT

Kibbles :

= dogma
Because the majority of this batch of defaults are "late model Sub-Primes", I think it's safe to bet NorCal's homes were funded by ARM/Option and other exotic products as well.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 03 Aug 2007 21:47:05 EDT

dogma :

said by Kibbles :

...people are getting multiple bids on 5+ million dollar homes.

There is no Economic crisis for most of those that can afford a $ multi-million Home.

Lets deduce:
"A total of 53,943 default notices were sent statewide from April through June (Q207), a 15.4 percent jump over the previous quarter and a 158 percent jump from the second quarter of 2006, according to DataQuick."

"In Los Angeles County, 10,393 default notices were sent in the second quarter of the year, a 126.6 percent jump from the 2006 second-quarter total of 4,586, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems. In Orange County, 2,984 notices were sent, a 137.8 percent jump over last year’s 1,255."

Looks like SoCal has it's proportional share of Defaults per population. Therefore, NorCal probably is seeing the same defaults.

“A lot of the loans that went bad last quarter were made at or just beyond the cycle’s peak, between summer ‘05 and summer ‘06,” said DataQuick..."

Because the majority of this batch of defaults are "late model Sub-Primes", I think it's safe to bet NorCal's homes were funded by ARM/Option and other exotic products as well.

We still have the early Sub-Primes, the Alt-A's, and a good chunk of the A-paper to go. Will take 4-6 years for the shake out, so the 40% drop in RE values will be slow and painful until 2013.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 03 Aug 2007 20:51:38 EDT

Kibbles :

said by dogma :

The Fountain Predictor shows California is entering a economic downturn. Unemployment is predicted to rise by at least a full percent over the next 12 Months.

But other than that, everything is rosy.

I heard one mortgage company's stock was selling around a low $7.00 a share...the company that was going to buy it...did...at $15.00 a share...to bad I did not buy a few thousand shares.

I have seen in Dove Canyon/Coto...sale prices drop 10-20% off the asking price...but in Three Arch Bay...people are getting multiple bids on 5+ million dollar homes.

I wonder has anyone seen a chart that shows how the houses in different cities were financed...in San Francisco I read that 70% of the homes purchased in the past few years were financed with ARM's...I can't imagine what would happen if a lot of those have to be refinanced.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 03 Aug 2007 18:12:23 EDT

dogma : The latest signs mortgage market distress, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. closed most operations on Friday and laid off nearly 7,000 employees.

Impac Funding & World Savings are next in the belly-up line.

Wall Street has been dogged by concerns that deteriorating lending conditions could hurt the economy and a rash of disappointing economic data, including weaker-than-expected jobs growth and slower service sector growth...

The Fountain Predictor shows California is entering a economic downturn. Unemployment is predicted to rise by at least a full percent over the next 12 Months.

But other than that, everything is rosy.

Fountain Predictor

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 02 Aug 2007 23:53:44 EDT

Kibbles : Yay...more good news :p
»www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=···CBB5fqZQ

I also read Countrywide may have a few problems next year....today I read that a large mortgage company is closing tomorrow...and another may in a few days.

Who should I believe....by Monday I have to decide if I want to buy my sisters portions of the house we inherited.
With my current savings I could support myself financially for a year without working....but from several articles I have read...if we did go into a recession...it could be 2+ years before we come out of it.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Sun, 29 Jul 2007 13:57:56 EDT

major marco :

said by nightdesigns :

Rancho Santa Margarita

So yer one of those folks, eh. The Coto wannabes. :D

I live right down the street from RSM but not because I like it here.
--
The Toll

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 13:02:11 EDT

No_Strings : There were innumerable problems with using El Toro as a commercial field. If only it were as simple as you suggest.
The issues, risks and benefits were debated for years and are well-documented. It would have been damned convenient for me.

Improving SNA is the real answer, not building a new one. I'd be happy to see my tax dollars go into that (some major work has/is being done, but the two biggest obstacles are not even on the table).

Meanwhile, you're more than welcome to use our snooty, little airport any time you need to. Let me know ahead of time and I'll buy you a coffee that you'll have to dump out before going through the Mensa security team. Wait, that's another thread.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 12:52:54 EDT

dogma :

said by No_Strings :

I fly out of LAX and LGB as needed. If we could lift the curfews at SNA and pour some more concrete, I wouldn't need to. Unfortunately, there are folks who built houses at the end of that runway who are much richer and have far more influence than I.

Local officials have been fighting that battle for a long time.

There is a lot of existing concrete at El Toro. But redevelopment funds are going to completely demolish the old AFB...which should have been a re-tasked as new International Airport.

But locals there didn't want the noise, pollution, traffic, ect., and forced it off the planners table. Yet these same locals have zero compunction to drive up here, to add to my noise, pollution, traffic, ect.

Instead of having a (real) local airport that services Orange County, we, the area residents of LAX, are giving OC air travelers a "handout", welfare, & subsidies in the form of our lower quality of living, and lower property values. Where's the outrage there?

I am not hammering on you in particular, but this whole handout/welfare/subsidy knife cuts both ways.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 12:13:35 EDT

No_Strings : I fly out of LAX and LGB as needed. If we could lift the curfews at SNA and pour some more concrete, I wouldn't need to. Unfortunately, there are folks who built houses at the end of that runway who are much richer and have far more influence than I.

Local officials have been fighting that battle for a long time.

I disagree that the city planners think that affordable housing is an important component of their well being. All of the articles I read showed cities in strong opposition to a state mandate. Imagine that - Sacramento being out of touch with the local communities. :)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 11:38:29 EDT

dogma : The bottom line is City Planning.

The city (Gub'ment), in it's infinite wisdom, makes decisions on how best to "invest" our tax dollars to further the long term prosperity of it's citizens. Many of these decisions are based on recommendations from "city Planners". Whose job it is to understand how communities evolve, and engineer solutions that help the mission.

We all enjoy the big, beautiful parks, and the nice shopping malls, and the great entertainment many communities have. Many of these projects were seeded with taxpayer money driven from redevelopment resources. These same planners have agreed that "affordable housing", is an important component to a communities long term well being. They reward the mega-millionaire developers and corporations with $Millions in funds, as well as underwrite a few families that make 20% less than the average community income.

Also, since it was brought up, I take it you never fly out or into LAX?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 11:06:00 EDT

Kibbles : From another article..so is it really rezoning ?

"Q. What are the consequences of not being in compliance?

A. If the state deemed the city was not in compliance, the city could be subject to third-party lawsuits and would not receive some state funding that it normally would"

»www.ocregister.com/ocregister/ne···9383.php

BTW as far as I know if you resell one of those low income units...you have to resell it as and priced as a low income unit....then again the city could tear it down because it is a blighted area. :o

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 09:21:29 EDT

No_Strings : I'm well aware of the Great Park project. Whatever they do there is better than the great airport plan than the well-to-do residents of Newport Beach were trying for.

I'm not lumping all redevelopment efforts together and agree that some municipal investments make sense.

Rezoning, however, is a stroke of the pen. No checks required. Paying money to enable the construction of homes for certain incomes is a subsidy no matter how you want to color it.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 03:54:39 EDT

dogma :

said by No_Strings :

The hell it's not subsidizing them. From one of the related Register articles:

The council did not discuss whether a portion of its redevelopment funds could be put toward Aliso Ridge and the Townhomes on Los Alisos, a housing project approved in September.

The money would cover the difference between what the affordable units sold for and their full market price.

The city has about $3 million in redevelopment money that must be used for affordable housing, said Irwin Bornstein, the assistant city manager and director of administrative services.

Where'd that redevelopment money come from? It didn't fall from the sky. It came from my pocket and the state is forcing (in this example) the city of Mission Viejo to use it to fund (is that a better word for you?) an artificially low-cost housing development.

The way I see it, it is simply re-zoning:
"Most of the coming population growth stems from land rezoned from industrial or commercial development to residential. Developers cite three main reasons for that land-use change..." »www.ocregister.com/ocregister/ne···6496.php

[note: You may want to pre-read the facts linked below before you continue on.]
»www.cityofirvine.org/civica/file···bID=6931
»cityofirvine.org/civica/filebank···bID=5705

Are you sure you want to lump "redevelopment" money with welfare (or subsidies)?

All of us are beneficiaries of city "redevelopment" money. You are correct, it didn't fall from the sky, it's our tax dollars (actually it's our kids tax dollars) being socially redistributed. The lion's share of redevelopment money goes to "subsidizing" the more wealthy of the population.

An example is the "Great Park" project. Old El Toro AFB. If you take the time to read the redevelopment plan, you will find the city will spend $100's of millions of dollars purchasing, fixing up, and then selling some the land at a fraction of the purchase & improvement cost to very wealthy developers...who will...develop "non-affordable housing" residential properties, and sell to the likes of you and me.

Why don't these same developers purchase the property directly and do all the work?? {rhetorical} Because they would not be able to make a profit, thus the property would remain vacant and in shambles.

The city's rationale is more tax income down the road using ~~welfare~~ ~~subsidies~~, um...investment today.

The same thing is true for big malls, major entertainment complexes, Professional sports stadiums, and big box stores. Of which we all patronize. All underwritten on ~~welfare~~ ~~subsidies~~, um...redevelopment funds and municipal bonds.

Yep, you are the direct recipient of a govenment sponsored "handout" (which is my main point). We all are.

At the end of the day, you actually have nothing to worry about. The so-called "affordable housing" units, if they are in an upscale neighborhood, are only temporary at best.

In my experience, the developer who was "forced" to make X units affordable, generally sold them to his friends 20-something kids (who could qualify), and after 5 years or so, the kids sell them back to the developer at a predetermined price. Or the "low-income" folks who are lucky enough to snag one of the few units, wind up selling after the mandated period at full market values to the same Yuppies that the community deems "desirable".

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 02:41:55 EDT

No_Strings :

said by dogma :

Please pay close attention to the answers for these questions:
Q. How is the state involved?
Q. How does the state determine the number of affordable housing units

A formula is used, based on many factors, including the 2000 Census, fertility, mortality and migration rates for the entire population and various ethnic groups. The typical sizes of households for different age groups and ethnic groups are also taken into onsideration.

Since when does any of that qualify one for a handout?

said by dogma :

From you're statement, are you suggesting that the government should have zero involvement with respect to how communities are developed (AKA zoned)? If so, then perhaps you wouldn't mind a large scale chemical manufacturing facility to be built behind your house...as long as DuPont can "afford" to pay "market rates" for the property.

Using extreme, unrealistic examples to make your point? You're better than that. This isn't simply zoning. It's using tax dollars to pay for projects that would not otherwise exist because the market does not support them.

said by dogma :

Or, are you being selective when "government involvement" doesn't suit your desires?

I thought I was clear. I'll try to be more so.

said by dogma :

Furthermore, the government is not "subsidizing" (another bogeyman code-word) anything with respect to the plan for affordable housing in Irvine that you cited. What they are doing is re-zoning areas. Just like an area zoned for C-1A, the land value will be much much less than if zoned for R1.

The hell it's not subsidizing them. From one of the related Register articles:

The council did not discuss whether a portion of its redevelopment funds could be put toward Aliso Ridge and the Townhomes on Los Alisos, a housing project approved in September.

The money would cover the difference between what the affordable units sold for and their full market price.

The city has about $3 million in redevelopment money that must be used for affordable housing, said Irwin Bornstein, the assistant city manager and director of administrative services.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 02:24:05 EDT

CurtesyFlush : These units date back to the early to mid eighties.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 02:09:45 EDT

dogma : OK. Take a look at this:
»www.ocregister.com/ocregister/ne···9383.php

This I found as a link off of one of kibbles supporting websites.

Please pay close attention to the answers for these questions:
Q. How is the state involved?
Q. How does the state determine the number of affordable housing units?

said by No_Strings :

My objection to subsidizing housing for someone earning $70K is the same as for someone earning $10 or even less.

Affordable housing should be defined by market rates for income and property values, not by some government entity.

From you're statement, are you suggesting that the government should have zero involvement with respect to how communities are developed (AKA zoned)? If so, then perhaps you wouldn't mind a large scale chemical manufacturing facility to be built behind your house...as long as DuPont can "afford" to pay "market rates" for the property.

Or, are you being selective when "government involvement" doesn't suit your desires?

Furthermore, the government is not "subsidizing" (another bogeyman code-word) anything with respect to the plan for affordable housing in Irvine that you cited. What they are doing is re-zoning areas. Just like an area zoned for C-1A, the land value will be much much less than if zoned for R1.

I failed to see where these homes are to be government managed & owned (like the HUD housing Jack spoke of), or Section 8, or Project based subsidies to the developers. It's just a change in zoning from what I can tell.

The re-zoning simply devalues the land. This may be news to a lot of people, but there is almost no difference in the construction cost of a $Million home in Laguna, and an equivalent $100K home in Camden Arkansas. So a developer pays less for the raw land, spends exactly the same $ per square foot to build, sells the finished product at 20% to 30% less than market, and still makes a profit.

said by CurtesyFlush :

...was going to be another "HUD development" of low income housing, just like the one before it across the freeway at Alicia and Moulton Pkwy.

Then one of my newlywed young firemen moved into a rental in the Cordobas, and he too referred to them as "HUD homes". HUD, for those not familiar, is a federal agency: The Bureau of Housing and Urban Development. Gub'ment.

FYI, HUD hasn't built any of those type properties for almost 30 years: "HUD programs have ceased producing large numbers of units since the 1980s." [ »en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordable_housing (good, informative read BTW)]

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Fri, 27 Jul 2007 00:34:05 EDT

Kibbles : »www.ocregister.com/ocregister/ne···0487.php

Click on the picture to see the developments....and yes I am looking into buying one....can't beat 3-6% interest,35-40 year mortgage and up to a 100% LTV :o

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 23:20:17 EDT

CurtesyFlush :

said by dogma :

I would like to see documentation that the "shitholes" Jack and Kibbles spoke of are actually gub'ment "mandated".

I finally remembered what the neighborhood was called: "The Cordobas" (nearly all MV developments save for the first section, known as the Deane Homes, are named after something in Spain).

I can't provide docs, but I'm sure the city could. It was simply a well known fact that the new neighborhood of ticky-tacky, plain Jane ugly-assed little homes going in on that flat piece of ground across from the new high school, surrounded by the hilly neighborhoods of already established single family detatched homes, was going to be another "HUD development" of low income housing, just like the one before it across the freeway at Alicia and Moulton Pkwy.

Then one of my newlywed young firemen moved into a rental in the Cordobas, and he too referred to them as "HUD homes". HUD, for those not familiar, is a federal agency: The Bureau of Housing and Urban Development. Gub'ment.

said by dogma :

I would make a second bet that they are simply slums, run by slum-lords.

There have always been a lot of rentals in that development. However, it's been a shithole for years, long before changing demographics saw a sea change in the level of skin melatonin and the amount of Spanish vs English being spoke.
--
"I intend to go in harm's way.... I have a fighting ship and I will never retreat from an enemy force..."

CDR E. E. Evans, USN; CMOH (posthumously), NC, BSM
Commanding Officer
USS Johnston (DD 557)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 22:08:56 EDT

Kibbles :

= dogma

I would like to see documentation that the "shitholes" Jack and Kibbles spoke of are actually gub'ment "mandated". I would make a second bet that they are simply slums, run by slum-lords.

»www.ocregister.com/ocregister/ne···9453.php

"The one-bedroom homes could sell for about $375,000 and the two- and three-bedroom homes for about $650,000, said Ralph Deppisch of Steadfast. The townhomes set aside for lower-income people could sell for about $113,000 and those for very-low income households could go for about $70,000."

I used to take care of the pools at Alicia Plaza and Alicia Village and have done a few spa repairs at the housing tract nearby...when I was younger I looked into buying one...but I made over 20k which was the max income.

»cbs2.com/local/local_story_117104457.html

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 21:28:25 EDT

No_Strings : My objection to subsidizing housing for someone earning $70K is the same as for someone earning $10 or even less.

Affordable housing should be defined by market rates for income and property values, not by some government entity.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 20:57:21 EDT

dogma :

said by No_Strings :

Why not reward low-income people more directly? Give them a home. No reason they should have to work/save like the rest of us. Or just give them cash. Better yet, give them a Prius and a Fastrak transponder. I hear there are some sweet deals on houses in Riverside & San Bernardino counties.

Well that's a good question. However from the little research I did, I am willing to bet there will not be 35,000 "low income" homes built based on the States definition of "low Income".

Would it be reasonable to postulate that the gub'ment, assumes not all jobs in a high-income area are high salary. Therefore the lower paid workers (Home Depot, KFC, 7-11, etc) would need to commute into communities like Irvine on already over crowded freeways long distances from low-rent places like Fontana. Thus, putting more of burden on gub'ment supported resources?

That would be perhaps one of many reasons for such a policy. More importantly, and what I am not articulating well it seems, it's not "low income" housing at all. That's just one of those code words for homeless/minority/white trash/drug heads/illegals/etc. It's "Affordable housing", which I quoted from the legal definition. ( »www.washingtonct.org/housingrationale.html ) So it's not really a "reward" for low-income (if, like I said, you consider $70K/year to be low income) people.

The media knows we all relate "low income housing" to a mental graphic of the Cabrini-Green high-rise projects shown in the intro of the 70's TV show Good Times. It's just another Bogeyman to scare us into looking at the ads.

I would like to see documentation that the "shitholes" Jack and Kibbles spoke of are actually gub'ment "mandated". I would make a second bet that they are simply slums, run by slum-lords.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 19:53:53 EDT

Kibbles :

said by CurtesyFlush :

Mission Viejo has at least one of those mandated neighborhoods
(roughly Los Alisos and Marguerite, across from THHS).

Guess what? It's a shithole.

There is another set of low income houses on Alicia Parkway and Via Lomas...and next to is are two apartment complexes...all are dumps.
33°35'16.99"N
117°42'18.19"W

and from what I remember MV still has to build 200+ more low income houses. :huh:

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 19:19:31 EDT

No_Strings : 35,660 homes by 2014, not 31 homes/year.

The benefits to the developers and the government entities who collect taxes are far greater than the stipend being offered to offset the costs.

Irvine is not in my back yard, but I object to the policy anywhere. State funds is just another way of saying someone's picking my pocket to help someone else without my consent. Welfare is just that, corporate or not. Forcing the building of low-cost housing is foolish monkeying with the free market.

Why not reward low-income people more directly? Give them a home. No reason they should have to work/save like the rest of us. Or just give them cash. Better yet, give them a Prius and a Fastrak transponder. I hear there are some sweet deals on houses in Riverside & San Bernardino counties.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 19:13:06 EDT

CurtesyFlush : In Fontana they're trying to mandate that 31 high income homes be built per year. At this point, 10 years into the process, there seem to be no takers.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 19:05:30 EDT

dogma : The Worst Is Yet to Come

said by fool.com :
Remember the subprime meltdown last winter? Low-credit borrowers defaulted on their home loan payments in increasing numbers when their adjustable-rate mortgage interest rates reset. Shares of major subprime lenders like Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) plummeted, while the most egregious offenders filed for bankruptcy.

Investors were pretty panicked -- for about a week. The market fell 5%, but quickly rebounded.

Consider the dire prediction of Lou Ranieri, widely considered the father of the mortgage-backed securities industry: The subprime meltdown "is the leading edge of the storm," he said last March. "If you think this is bad, imagine what it's going to be like in the middle of the crisis." Between subprime and Alt-A, Ranieri estimates that more than $100 billion of home loans are likely to default.

said by No_Strings :

This will help:

Government mandate to lower property values by meddlesome tinkering with the market.

Morons. The whole idea of mandating communities to provide trailer parks (or equivalent) is ludicrous.

NIMBY in 'yo funk?

You do realize Irvine gets State funds for this. Looks like Irvine got $1.4 Million (BTW, that money is not to build them, it's to help "defray cost" of finding financing for the project)it just goes into Irvine's coffers...kinda' like Corporate Welfare):
The first project slated will use the funds for the construction of 14 single-family homes available
for purchase by those with annual household incomes at or below 80% of area median income.

Hummm...The median income for a household in the city of Irvine is $85,624 (from: »en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irvine,_California ), so 80% of that would be $68,500/yr.

Wow. 14 homes. Occupied by folks only making $70K/Yr. With a goal of a whopping 31 homes a year over the next 10 years. [ »72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:bsW···irefox-a ]
You might want to consider selling now before the rift-raft shows up. :)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 17:31:33 EDT

aztecnology : Did the market tank today or what? Down 500+ points the last two days. It's almost uncanny to read the CNBC blurb today, compared to my initial post yesterday...

"Thursday's sharp decline was sparked by concerns about weak housing, financing for corporate deals, higher oil and unwinding of the Japanese carry trade, a popular financing tool for hedge funds".
»www.cnbc.com/id/19973151
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 11:54:53 EDT

CurtesyFlush : Mission Viejo has at least one of those mandated neighborhoods
(roughly Los Alisos and Marguerite, across from THHS).

Guess what? It's a shithole.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 10:45:01 EDT

No_Strings : This will help:

Government mandate to lower property values by meddlesome tinkering with the market.

Irvine is being required to accommodate within seven years the second-largest number of new homes by a Southland city, trailing only Los Angeles, according to a housing plan approved this month.

Irvine must plan for 35,660 homes by 2014, according to the Southern California Assn. of Governments. Some would be designated for low-income families.

»www.latimes.com/news/printeditio···lifornia

Morons. The whole idea of mandating communities to provide trailer parks (or equivalent) is ludicrous.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 21:49:02 EDT

No_Strings :

said by dogma :

Unfortunately, I can not add to the nightly cuisine-on-tap blog, as I am on a weight loss quest.

Easy. Stop hanging with fat friends. They're causing your problem.

»www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articl···ID=sa007

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 21:47:18 EDT

CurtesyFlush : You bring up all the "adult" themed topics you want, have at em sluggo. IIRC, the one about global warming went on for many pages and hundreds of responses before getting its ass locked. I didn't participate in that one because my mind's already made up about the whole ridiculous concept.

To answer your question, here, here, or
here.
--
"I intend to go in harm's way.... I have a fighting ship and I will never retreat from an enemy force..."

CDR E. E. Evans, USN; CMOH (posthumously), NC, BSM
Commanding Officer
USS Johnston (DD 557)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 21:14:31 EDT

dogma : ...yeah, wouldn't want to bring up an "adult" themed subject to this forum of Norse goblin Gastrophiles who waddle around hell's waiting room consuming those of us who are to be punished for our mental gluttony and recipe-challenged ideals.

Pray tell ye alchemist of saturated fats, where would one "discuss" such non-flatulence inducing topics?

But speaking of Carls' Six Dollar burger...and inflation...
Remember when they first launched those, and the price was like $3.49, now they are damn near six bucks.

Unfortunately, I can not add to the nightly cuisine-on-tap blog, as I am on a weight loss quest.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 20:33:39 EDT

No_Strings : I am making a wholesome & delicious meal of Italian sausage subs - homemade sauce, sausages grilled before cooking them in the sauce on fresh rolls with Provolone and grated Romano cheeses.

OK, it ain't healthy, but a guy's gotta eat.

Now, back to out socio-political-anti-everything thread.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 20:28:23 EDT

aztecnology :

said by CurtesyFlush :

You'll excuse me while I go whack off over a picture of a 6 dollar Western Bacon-Cheeseburger now, won't you?

That sound good for dinner to tonight, the burger that is. I'm heading to the new Bass Pro in RC tonight, oh wait, nvm, just remembered that there is a Hat next door. Pastami ftw...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 20:24:03 EDT

bobrk : Best. Post. Ever.

Re: The housing crisis spreads to middle-class buyers

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 20:23:48 EDT

aztecnology :

said by CurtesyFlush :

said by dogma :

Aztec & I have been Prophesizing this collapse, and its effect on the economy as a whole for a while, but it seems nobody really cares.

Maybe you're misinterpreting the acceptance of something completely out of Mr. Everyman's hands and sphere of influence for lack of care.

I kind of feel that way a lot of the time, but everyone is feeling the effects of the economy or will be. Prices on just about everything are going up and it seems like inflation is just out of control. Hell, I practically dread buying a gallon of milk vs a gallon of gasoline these days...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 20:21:09 EDT

CurtesyFlush : You're right, maybe I'm putting too much time in fretting over our illegal invasion of a sovereign country, complete with bald-faced lies to the taxpayers, with the resulting fact that history looks like it's repeating itself (except now it's Iraq instead of Vietnam and the civilians have round eyes instead of slanty ones) and how we're saddling our children and grand+++children with suffocating debt service to the tune of 9 billion a month just to pursue this little sideshow. Not to mention the dead and wounded GIs and how once again it looks like the gubmint will turn its back on those it calls to do its dirty work.

You have your issues, I have mine. But I don't come to this particular forum to discuss them.

You'll excuse me while I go whack off over a picture of a 6 dollar Western Bacon-Cheeseburger now, won't you?
--
"I intend to go in harm's way.... I have a fighting ship and I will never retreat from an enemy force..."

CDR E. E. Evans, USN; CMOH (posthumously), NC, BSM
Commanding Officer
USS Johnston (DD 557)

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 19:40:24 EDT

dogma :

said by aztecnology :

Financial Markets ~
...All the while the market just keeps brushing things off and the bulls keep running...

With respect to the equity markets, it seems there are a lot of smoke and mirrors involved there as well. Ford just posted their 10 straight quarterly loss, Damlier is trying to dump Chrysler, and GM is just setting up for BK to get rid of all of the pensions and healthcare promises it made that burden it. By decades end, the majority of the auto's sold here will be by foreign manufactures (although a good percentage will be "assembled" here). Automobiles, housing, energy, textiles, electronics, we don't produce/manufacture anything ... the only thing we lead at as a producer anymore is drugs [BigPhArma] & war related items. All we do is service & sell stuff to each other. Even the iPhone is manufactured in Taiwan. We can't even build a damn telephone anymore.

I think the stock values and gains are because most of these firms are making profit overseas, not here. And like you said, an extremely weak dollar.

said by No_Strings :

That doesn't mean that I'm immune. It only means I have less to fret over. I still think a soft recovery is possible ... maybe probable. There's still a strong need for housing and the overall economy is in good shape. It's not all doom & gloom.

For some, though, it's time to pay the piper.

I disagree. This economy has been propped up with debt. Like the Ghetto-Fabulous family down the street, who just last year were flush in Escalades, Jaguars, cruise ship vacations, and top-of-the line Viking kitchen appliances...are now ass-out of their house (and cars) - Foreclosed on. The ponzi scheme of perpetual refinancing, like you said, must be paid.

Doesn't the same hold true on a large scale? Every man, woman, and child in this country owes (on average) $29,434.27. That's today, more interest tomorrow. So a family of 4 owes $120K. C'mon, homie down the street couldn't service his debt and the Sheriff came and physically removed him and his family from their house. His now empty, hocked-to-the-hilt house, will be sold for (a guess) 80¢ on the dollar. Who pays for that $200K loss? Have you forgotten that this governments mantra is "privatize profits & socialize losses"?

No, you won't get evicted from your home because homie got bounced out of his, but your taxes will go up, even more. So will your kids taxes. Which means the majority of your paycheck will go to pay the gub'ment first.

You too will feel the [non-lubricated] sting of "the piper". we all will.

said by CurtesyFlush :

Maybe you're misinterpreting the acceptance of something completely out of Mr. Everyman's hands and sphere of influence for lack of care.

I sure as hell didn't force all those dumbasses into bad loans.

And, as usual, I'm just along for the ride on the economic rollercoaster. I'm neither a mover or a shaker. I simply buy low and hold.

I can't say that I disagree with you. I don't know why it frustrates me. What can we do about it?

Perhaps it's best not to think about it. Hummm...we can think about stuff like Lindsay Lohan/Paris Hilton/Conjured-up Terrorist threats/Wendy's Bacon Triple-Bypass burgers & the like.

Re: The housing crisis spreads to middle-class buyers

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 18:19:53 EDT

CurtesyFlush :

said by dogma :

Aztec & I have been Prophesizing this collapse, and its effect on the economy as a whole for a while, but it seems nobody really cares.

Maybe you're misinterpreting the acceptance of something completely out of Mr. Everyman's hands and sphere of influence for lack of care.

I sure as hell didn't force all those dumbasses into bad loans.

And, as usual, I'm just along for the ride on the economic rollercoaster. I'm neither a mover or a shaker. I simply buy low and hold.
--
"I intend to go in harm's way.... I have a fighting ship and I will never retreat from an enemy force..."

CDR E. E. Evans, USN; CMOH (posthumously), NC, BSM
Commanding Officer
USS Johnston (DD 557)

Re: The housing crisis spreads to middle-class buyers

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 18:19:04 EDT

No_Strings : I care. Not as if I had behaved like my paper profits were real and taken out a second or third mortgage for home improvements or cars or appliances instead of paying cash.

That doesn't mean that I'm immune. It only means I have less to fret over. I still think a soft recovery is possible ... maybe probable. There's still a strong need for housing and the overall economy is in good shape. It's not all doom & gloom.

For some, though, it's time to pay the piper.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 18:12:37 EDT

aztecnology : I have not updated this thread in awhile, so some thoughts...

Housing ~
Well, we've hit the all time high for foreclosures recently, with San Berdoo leading the way with 1000% increase from last year.

Gas/Oil ~
This is an interesting one, from my casual observation of my last several fill-ups, prices seem to be holding steady around $2.89 -$2.95, while US reserves are up and the price per barrel is now in the mid $70's and will probably be heading north of $80 in short order.

Financial Markets ~
For every good earnings report, there seems to be two bad ones. The dollar is suffering against the yen and the euro. Subprime woes have spread across to prime, with the major lenders and home builders continuing to suffer. All the while the market just keeps brushing things off and the bulls keep running...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

The housing crisis spreads to middle-class buyers

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 18:01:18 EDT

dogma : ^ bumpity bump ^

From today's L.A. Times:
Foreclosures in state hit record high
The housing crisis spreads to middle-class buyers.
The economic outlook ranges from a slowdown to recession.

said by Selected snippets/L.A.Times: »www.latimes.com/news/printeditio···rontpage :
Foreclosures soared to 17,408 for the three months ended June 30, an increase of 799% from the same period last year.

Countrywide Financial Corp...reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, even among customers with good credit.

"All the artificial stimulus housing gave the economy is going to go away,"

"In the beginning, we were thinking the foreclosures were going to be limited to low-income, high-minority neighborhoods targeted by predatory lenders," Cadavid said. "Now we're seeing a shift to the middle class."

Among the hardest-hit areas are Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

...underscored the different fates of the inland communities and coastal cities.

The first "saw housing appreciation due to smoke and mirrors, the other was built on true wealth growth," Davin said. "Business is good on the upper end and bad [for homes] under $700,000, especially in the Inland Empire and Orange County. I expect to see a lot of homeowners in trouble soon."

Aztec & I have been Prophesizing this collapse, and its effect on the economy as a whole for a while, but it seems nobody really cares.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 23:56:20 EDT

HappyBunny :

said by aztecnology :

What's everyone's thoughts on the possible grocery workers strike...?

My thought is... they apparently didn't learn the first time that their union is not looking out for them. I read an article in the LA Times about a meat cutter for Von's who is *bitching* about his $17.00 an hour job. Um, MSWs (Clinical Social Workers) with a Master's Degree often earn in the $20-22 an hour range.

What part of "you are damn lucky to be earning $17.00 per hour with NO degree or skills" do you not understand, Mr. Meat Cutter?

No sympathy from me--I worked damn hard to get to my not-much-more-money-than-you career. And my job is a damn sight more demanding and difficult, so I will be sure and give you a "friendly gesture" as I cross your picket line.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 20:26:54 EDT

CurtesyFlush : It never ends.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 20:22:59 EDT

No_Strings : First you want chocolate. Now, knowledge. Where does it end?! Wisdom?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 20:20:55 EDT

CurtesyFlush : When that happens, I hope you don't mind kicking some of that knowledge down here into the groundlings pit. I have no f'in clue what he's talking about.
--
Life Member, NRA and CRPA.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 20:00:28 EDT

No_Strings : Just you wait ... some day I'll be smart enough to understand all that.

You'll see.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 19:48:18 EDT

aztecnology : Interesting commentary from Professor Roubini, on the statements made by Bill Gross the head man at Pimco Bonds (the biggest bond fund in the world),on the state of the CDO/Bear Sterns hedge fund shakeout:

“AAA? You were wooed Mr. Moody’s and Mr. Poor’s, by the makeup, those six-inch hooker heels, and a “tramp stamp.” Many of these good looking girls are not high-class assets worth 100 cents on the dollar. .

And sorry Ben, but derivatives are a two-edged sword. Yes, they diversify risk and direct it away from the banking system into the eventual hands of unknown buyers, but they multiply leverage like the Andromeda strain. When interest rates go up, the Petri dish turns from a benign experiment in financial engineering to a destructive virus because the cost of that leverage ultimately reduces the price of assets. Houses anyone?…

»www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/202280

»www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+M···2007.htm
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 27 Jun 2007 09:57:43 EDT

aztecnology : I used to be a member of the UFCW and worked for Ralphs while I was going to school. The only contract that came up during my tenure was negotiated successfully. During the strike a couple years ago I crossed the lines as I needed to at the time and the stores were like ghost towns, but the deals were a plenty. I'm sure I'll be doing the same this time around if they do indeed call for a strike...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 26 Jun 2007 19:36:12 EDT

CurtesyFlush :

said by aztecnology :

What's everyone's thoughts on the possible grocery workers strike...?

The same they were the last time. I'll be crossing the lines to shop if it suits my own interest. I won't do it just to do it, but if I need something from Ralphs that Stater Bros doesn't have, there I'll be. It's the Retail Clerk's fight, not mine. Although, last time I crossed an Albertson's line a couple times just to see what they'd do.

Last time I made some extra dough backing semi trucks up to the docks at a couple of South ORCO supermarkets. The drivers were showing typical mindless union "solidarity" with the RCU strikers, and wouldn't cross the lines to deliver. At the time I still held a valid Class A commercial driving license, so I put it to use.
--
Life Member, NRA and CRPA.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 26 Jun 2007 19:12:30 EDT

Stiofan :

said by nightdesigns :

said by aztecnology :

What's everyone's thoughts on the possible grocery workers strike...?

Not again.

Afterwards can we talk about earthquakes, or maybe how to get out of valid traffic infractions?

I know, I'm bored but at least I didn't mention railroads.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 26 Jun 2007 13:04:54 EDT

No_Strings : Union workers never learn and union leaders never tire of lining their pockets with the blood of the people they purport to represent.

Companies will always look for ways to improve their results by adding top-line revenue (new products or services, new markets, raising prices) or through cutting costs (negotiating favorable tax treatment, lower rents, wage or benefit cuts) while still maintaining an acceptable level of customer satisfaction and employee retention. It's their fiduciary responsibility to do so.

Unions, in an effort to preserve the status quo, create a deliberately hostile environment between companies and their employees. They position themselves as the only alternative for improving wages, benefits or conditions. They take their cut, regardless of the outcome.

Employees in low-skilled jobs will always be at risk. It's ludicrous to think that I should get $50K, medical and 4 weeks vacation scanning bar codes because I've been there for 10 years when the company can train a kid to do it for $10K in a week. Hell, they could train a chimp for that job.

If wages and benefits are not allowed to adjust to market rates, eventually, it collapses. Outsourcing or Wal-Marting or some other phenomenon comes in to fill the gap. Look to Detroit for a wonderful example of what happens when labor unions are empowered.

A strike will result in the same thing it always does - lost revenue, lost wages, lost customers and hard feelings all around. The only winners are the union management.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 26 Jun 2007 12:51:01 EDT

nightdesigns :

said by aztecnology :

What's everyone's thoughts on the possible grocery workers strike...?

Not again.
--
[[Your signature here]]

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Tue, 26 Jun 2007 12:40:08 EDT

aztecnology : What's everyone's thoughts on the possible grocery workers strike...?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 23:08:09 EDT

aztecnology :

said by jinjimbob :

Democrat almost equals republican in the US, both right of the middle.

You guys in the forum have been saying 'housing bubble pop' for the last two years. :D

Well, it should have started 2 years ago, but easy credit has extended it for 2 years, which unfortunately means that housing has that much more to fall.

In many cases/neighborhoods in SoCal, housing is already back to 2005 prices...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 21:36:38 EDT

jinjimbob : Democrat almost equals republican in the US, both right of the middle.

You guys in the forum have been saying 'housing bubble pop' for the last two years. :D

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 20:42:19 EDT

aztecnology :

said by No_Strings :

said by Kibbles :

Well since the Democrats are sort of in power now in DC....and we more than likely will have a Democrat President...what are the possibilities that the Democrats will escape being blamed for the recession? :D

What are the possibilities we could escape a recession with Democrats in power? Slim to none, in my view.

said by No_Strings :

What are the possibilities we could escape a recession with Democrats in power? Slim to none, in my view.

I agree. I think at this point recession is inevitable...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 19:28:19 EDT

No_Strings :

What are the possibilities we could escape a recession with Democrats in power? Slim to none, in my view.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 18:32:44 EDT

Kibbles : Well since the Democrats are sort of in power now in DC....and we more than likely will have a Democrat President...what are the possibilities that the Democrats will escape being blamed for the recession? :D

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 16:58:15 EDT

aztecnology : Stocks tumbled today, and everyday I think were getting closer and closer to an official recession (were probably already in it).

Bond yields are up, likewise are mortgage rates

Oil is shooting back up

General slow down with most major retailers and their earnings

»www.cnbc.com/id/19318530

And the biggest news of yesterday was the shake out of the Bear Stearns Hedge funds (CDO's,collateralized debt obligations - Mortgages), where JP Morgan and Merrill are about to start auctioning assets to cover the billions in losses...
»www.cnbc.com/id/19330015

"At least a third of what is being shown is pretty esoteric stuff," said [Mark Adelson, managing director of fixed income research at Nomura Securities.] The bulk of collateral appearing on the bid lists are CDOs that are backed by a pool of mortgage bonds, and CDO squareds, which are CDOs of CDOs, similar in concept to a fund of funds, market participants said.
»calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007···ale.html
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 21:10:58 EDT

aztecnology :

said by Kibbles :

said by bobrk :

850 sounds low. It'll go up when the county reappraises based on your sale.

Nope... »www.oc.ca.gov/assessor/TaxSavePPCinfo.asp

Ah yes, I forgot that your situation was intra-family...
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 21:00:52 EDT

Kibbles :

said by bobrk :

Ah, ok. Cool. My taxes are over $8k, thanks to prop 13.

The house my ex has the taxes are 20k a year :o

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 20:55:00 EDT

bobrk : Ah, ok. Cool. My taxes are over $8k, thanks to prop 13.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 20:53:46 EDT

Kibbles :

said by bobrk :

850 sounds low. It'll go up when the county reappraises based on your sale.

Nope... »www.oc.ca.gov/assessor/TaxSavePPCinfo.asp

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 20:51:12 EDT

bobrk :

said by Kibbles :

said by aztecnology :

If the realtor wants to buy it for $850k( $150k over comps), why aren't you selling...?

Property tax is ~ 850 a year....and association dues are 0.

850 sounds low. It'll go up when the county reappraises based on your sale.
--
Iraq Coalition Deaths | bobrk

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 20:47:39 EDT

Kibbles :

said by aztecnology :

If the realtor wants to buy it for $850k( $150k over comps), why aren't you selling...?

The property tax is ~ 850 a year....and association dues are 0.
The first house I had was in 1992...in 1998 the ex got it...this house is a keeper.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 19:27:55 EDT

aztecnology : For $300k-$400k in my pocket, i'd live/rent somewhere else...

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 19:16:58 EDT

bobrk :

said by aztecnology :

said by Kibbles :

said by nightdesigns :

Fun, I purchased a house last weekend =). Regardless of the market though, I'm in for the long run, and not a quick buck, so if the market fluctuates now and then I won't been too concerned.

Same here...I sign the papers this weekend.
First/second 320k..buying out my sisters..175k..appraised value last month 696k..left over cash ~ 50k....realtor offering me 850k for the house.. priceless :D

If the realtor wants to buy it for $850k( $150k over comps), why aren't you selling...?

Maybe he's living in it. Some things are more important than money.
--
Iraq Coalition Deaths | bobrk

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 18:58:24 EDT

aztecnology :

said by Kibbles :

If the realtor wants to buy it for $850k( $150k over comps), why aren't you selling...?
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 18:56:53 EDT

aztecnology : Interest rates have really shot up over the last several weeks..

»www.hsh.com/mtghst.html

30-yr FRM 6.91%
15-yr FRM 6.60%
1-yr ARM 6.27%

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 18:55:02 EDT

Kibbles :

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 17:11:27 EDT

nightdesigns :

said by CurtesyFlush :

House or condo?

House.
--
[[Your signature here]]

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 16:38:16 EDT

CurtesyFlush : House or condo?

I once lived in the canyon below the mesa that RSM would one day be built on.Trabuco Oaks section of Trabuco Canyon.
--
Life Member, NRA and CRPA.

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 16:29:57 EDT

nightdesigns :

said by CurtesyFlush :

$$$$$

Yes and no. RSM is cheaper than the surrounding areas, Mission Viejo, Irvine, San Clemente, etc.
--
[[Your signature here]]

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 16:25:53 EDT

CurtesyFlush : $$$$$

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 16:18:29 EDT

nightdesigns : Rancho Santa Margarita

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 16:07:33 EDT

CurtesyFlush : What city?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 16:02:47 EDT

nightdesigns :

said by aztecnology :

Just out of curiosity what were the specs of the purchase/loan...? Do you feel like you got a good deal relative to the area you purchased in?

I purchased the house as a 50/50 partner with my grandmother. The loan terms were a 10/20 loan (interest only the first 10 years, 20 year traditional, rate fixed across the 30). I understand the risks of this type of loan and I will be putting money away in investments to offset my lack of Principal. My goal is to buy out my Grandmother is 10 years, or sell and we split the profits and then I'll have enough in savings and earned to do a full purchase on my own.

We got the house for about $50k under the comps (we set the lowest price on the block). The owner had a previous offer fall through and needed to sell with a quick escrow.
--
[[Your signature here]]

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 15:18:13 EDT

aztecnology : Just out of curiosity what were the specs of the purchase/loan...? Do you feel like you got a good deal relative to the area you purchased in?

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 15:08:52 EDT

nightdesigns : Fun, I purchased a house last weekend =). Regardless of the market though, I'm in for the long run, and not a quick buck, so if the market fluctuates now and then I won't been too concerned.
--
[[Your signature here]]

Re: SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 12:15:35 EDT

aztecnology : I thought I would throw in some of the blogs/sites that I regularly visit to keep up on the latest news...

Calculated Risk
»calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/

Professor Roubini
»www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

Jonathan Lansner
»blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/

Piggington
»piggington.com/

CA Housing Forecast
»www.californiahousingforecast.com/
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax

SoCal & The Economy ~ Financial Markets ~ Housing ~ Etc

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 12:15:15 EDT

aztecnology : Since we've had a few of these threads going over the last several months, I figure we might as well just keep a single thread going where we can discuss all the relevant economic/financial impacts for Southern California...

»So Cal housing bubble ready to pop?

»CA Real Estate Market Study

»Home Values going down the toliet?

»California; More Leaving, Less Coming

»How many tax defaults can u have before u lose your house?

»Homeowners: Mortgage Interest, Property Tax & Uncle Sam
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that always come in legions." John Callari .:|:. Say no to the IRS Yes to the Fair Tax