Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs: 
edit:
July 19th, @12:20PM
| I think the question is...
Will there even BE telco providers in 2012?
While some might see that as being a stretch..I think you need to ask yourselves, did AOL ever see themselves being in the position they're in with their dialup demise?
Or, did many industries over the years who had such a dominant position in many things ever see how time and technology could change so rapidly?
While I'm very bullish on Verizon and their FIOS rollout, even for them things are happening VERY quickly and it's really going to take some time and a whole lot of money to get the ftth coverage they need to really compete with the Cable co's.
The cable industry has undergone a truly remarkable metamorphosis over the last few years. From what was a pretty ho hum, here's your 60 tv channels kind of industry..they've transformed themselves into internet..video and voice powerhouses.
Below, I post my latest speedtest from Comcast. Over the last couple of days, it's gone up yet again and now at times I'm even seeing DL speeds of over 30Mb! And, UL powerboost has now just kicked in as well..giving me and others close to 2Mb.
This company..and other cable providers are DESTROYING the telco's with this kind of performance. And, comcast appears to now be marketing this new PowerBoost technology to other cable co's. as well.
What will this do to the likes of AT&T..Qwest..and even Verizon in areas that they can't get FTTH rolled out fast enough? Some say..why do you need this speed? It's because the next few years will be ALL about video...and HDTV.
Netflix will NOT be mailing people their DVD's anymore folks. They're already now going with Downloads for thousands of titles. This is going to be the driving force behind the need for speed.
I think the telco's need to realize that it isn't going to stop there either. Already, their landlines are being cannibalized every which way but loose. The low cost voip providers..and the cable co's are now ripping into their long held customer bases. People are dropping their pots lines like bad habits..to the tune of millions per year now.
And video? Hdtv? Who owns that market? The cable co's..of course. While satellite providers have their incremental share..they're not and won't be the dominant ones. Cable is too easy..too readily available to ever be dethroned.
The REAL threat to telco is that when you combine the power of the cable industries HSI..VIDEO..AND voice packages..they can literally offer telephone service..FOR FREE..if they were and are so inclined to. They can use these other two mediums to fund the third.
The death..of Telco.
I ask you..what would be left of telco given this whole scenario I've laid out?
Not too much...is there.
There is only ONE thing that can save the telco's. And that is FTTH. Verizon executives..one day..sat in their board rooms and probably had the same exact conversation I just laid out for you here. And they walked away saying..HOLY SH**!. "Our business is SO exposed right now to the cable industry..that they can destroy us".
And, I predict..that's why they moved full steam ahead with ftth and told their shareholders..we're sorry..but we're spending 25 Billion of your money to do this right...right now.
WHO..does AT&T think they are kidding?
Is UVERSE going to kill cable? I think it's the laughing stock of Comcast right now.
Let me ask you this...if a UVERSE flier showed up on YOUR doorknob..and YOU were getting what I post that I am now getting..what would YOU think..and do with that flier?
You'd throw it away.
It doesn't come CLOSE to even competing right now..much less being a next generation service. Can you imagine..if Comcast is doing THIS right now with docsis 1.1..what they will do with Docsis 3.0 next year?
It's going to be GOODNIGHT AT&T.
What is my interest here? In seeing REAL competition in AT&T versus cable co. territories. I live in that kind of an area right now. It has been proven that when verizon fios rolls in..the REAL competition starts. That is what Cable co's fear..and respond to.
If there is no more AT&T..there will be NO ONE..to stop the cable industry. They already have proven they WILL raise prices..at will. And do so at a MUCH greater rate than inflation.
Those of us living in AT&T versus Cable land want and deserve this world class competition...just like the verizon~cable co's are now starting to see.
AT&T..TEAR DOWN THOSE VRADS..
And get with the real program.
Because if you don't..
You just might not have a company in 2012 to do it with.
~Rick
 |
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fatmanskinny
Premium
join:2004-01-04
Atlanta, GA
 ·Comcast Digital Vo..
 ·Comcast
 ·EarthLink
| Now, if cable companies can come up with a solution for a home security monitoring system where it is wireless and does not depend on VOIP or a land line, that may be one of the nails in the telcos' coffins.
--
The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary. |
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Cod
join:2000-07-05
Greensboro, NC
edit:
July 19th, @12:44PM
| reply to Rick
Congrats, Rick!!! You remembered your password!
27 paragraphs this time. Guess what? Same rehashed F.U.D. »en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear%2C_un···nd_doubt you post time and time again. I've never seen someone have a chub like you do for the telco's, bro.
Amusing stuff nonetheless...The entertainment value alone is priceless. |
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Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs:
| said by Cod  :Congrats, Rick!!! You remembered your password! (I wasn't aware that I had forgotten it) 27 paragraphs this time. Guess what? Same rehashed F.U.D. » en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear%2C_un···nd_doubt you post time and time again. (rehashed? Maybe. But as long as nothing changes..it needs to be said) I've never seen someone have a chub like you do for the telco's, bro. (I have no problems whatsoever with Verizon and THEIR strategy. Because it's the right one. For them..and the consumers who live in their service area) Amusing stuff nonetheless...The entertainment value alone is priceless. (Well, I guess I'm glad you're this easily entertained. I don't post what I do as entertainment however. In my view, it's the plain facts. I notice what you and others don't do however is to come up with anything to dispute them. Is that because they're accurate? Are the telco's losing millions of customers to voip and the cable providers? Is Comcast's and other cable co's HSI speeds leaving telco totally in the dust? Is Video and hdtv now and going to be the driving force behind the need for speed? Do YOU think that Uverse is really an answer to it all..and is truly a Next generation service? Or, is it easier to just bash me for my opinions? Sadly, I think many of my predictions dating back here a year and more already are all coming to pass. And, I think the very dismal adoption of uverse is all the proof of that. All my posts in the world aren't making that happen. It's the service that is making that happen. Don't shoot me.. I'm just speaking what I see as the truth)
--
The Coyote captured the RR! Roadrunner Rick is now Comcastic! |
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CO_Chris
Premium
join:2001-08-28
Broomfield, CO
edit:
July 19th, @01:18PM
| reply to Rick
Very good post Rick.There is alot of insight and i have to agree with you on it.ATT needs to wake up and do FTTH Vs vdsl what a joke. |
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Tzale
Ron Paul - I Didn't Vote For Either
Premium
join:2004-01-06
NJ, USA
 ·Verizon FIOS
·Optimum Online
| reply to Rick
said by Rick :Will there even BE telco providers in 2012? While some might see that as being a stretch..I think you need to ask yourselves, did AOL ever see themselves being in the position they're in with their dialup demise? Or, did many industries over the years who had such a dominant position in many things ever see how time and technology could change so rapidly? While I'm very bullish on Verizon and their FIOS rollout, even for them things are happening VERY quickly and it's really going to take some time and a whole lot of money to get the ftth coverage they need to really compete with the Cable co's. The cable industry has undergone a truly remarkable metamorphosis over the last few years. From what was a pretty ho hum, here's your 60 tv channels kind of industry..they've transformed themselves into internet..video and voice powerhouses. Below, I post my latest speedtest from Comcast. Over the last couple of days, it's gone up yet again and now at times I'm even seeing DL speeds of over 30Mb! And, UL powerboost has now just kicked in as well..giving me and others close to 2Mb. This company..and other cable providers are DESTROYING the telco's with this kind of performance. And, comcast appears to now be marketing this new PowerBoost technology to other cable co's. as well. What will this do to the likes of AT&T..Qwest..and even Verizon in areas that they can't get FTTH rolled out fast enough? Some say..why do you need this speed? It's because the next few years will be ALL about video...and HDTV. Netflix will NOT be mailing people their DVD's anymore folks. They're already now going with Downloads for thousands of titles. This is going to be the driving force behind the need for speed. I think the telco's need to realize that it isn't going to stop there either. Already, their landlines are being cannibalized every which way but loose. The low cost voip providers..and the cable co's are now ripping into their long held customer bases. People are dropping their pots lines like bad habits..to the tune of millions per year now. And video? Hdtv? Who owns that market? The cable co's..of course. While satellite providers have their incremental share..they're not and won't be the dominant ones. Cable is too easy..too readily available to ever be dethroned. The REAL threat to telco is that when you combine the power of the cable industries HSI..VIDEO..AND voice packages..they can literally offer telephone service..FOR FREE..if they were and are so inclined to. They can use these other two mediums to fund the third. The death..of Telco. I ask you..what would be left of telco given this whole scenario I've laid out? Not too much...is there. There is only ONE thing that can save the telco's. And that is FTTH. Verizon executives..one day..sat in their board rooms and probably had the same exact conversation I just laid out for you here. And they walked away saying..HOLY SH**!. "Our business is SO exposed right now to the cable industry..that they can destroy us". And, I predict..that's why they moved full steam ahead with ftth and told their shareholders..we're sorry..but we're spending 25 Billion of your money to do this right...right now. WHO..does AT&T think they are kidding? Is UVERSE going to kill cable? I think it's the laughing stock of Comcast right now. Let me ask you this...if a UVERSE flier showed up on YOUR doorknob..and YOU were getting what I post that I am now getting..what would YOU think..and do with that flier? You'd throw it away. It doesn't come CLOSE to even competing right now..much less being a next generation service. Can you imagine..if Comcast is doing THIS right now with docsis 1.1..what they will do with Docsis 3.0 next year? It's going to be GOODNIGHT AT&T. What is my interest here? In seeing REAL competition in AT&T versus cable co. territories. I live in that kind of an area right now. It has been proven that when verizon fios rolls in..the REAL competition starts. That is what Cable co's fear..and respond to. If there is no more AT&T..there will be NO ONE..to stop the cable industry. They already have proven they WILL raise prices..at will. And do so at a MUCH greater rate than inflation. Those of us living in AT&T versus Cable land want and deserve this world class competition...just like the verizon~cable co's are now starting to see. AT&T..TEAR DOWN THOSE VRADS.. And get with the real program. Because if you don't.. You just might not have a company in 2012 to do it with. ~Rick Did you ever think that now that Verizon is moving to FTTH, that they will be taking a chunk of the cable companies TV also? Think about what you're saying... Millions of people will move their POTS lines to VOIP, but millions of people will refuse to move to a much more superior TV service? I don't think so...
What I think we see here is the TV giant (cable companies) and the phone giant (telephone companies) now entering each other's arena... There is going to be sparks flying, but in the end I think that FTTH will come out as the winner due to a MUCH superior product... Cable will be forced to upgrade to FTTH in the next decade if they want to keep their head above the water.
-Tzale |
|
Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs:
| said by Tzale :Did you ever think that now that Verizon is moving to FTTH, that they will be taking a chunk of the cable companies TV also? Think about what you're saying... Millions of people will move their POTS lines to VOIP, but millions of people will refuse to move to a much more superior TV service? I don't think so... Yes..I absolutely think that will happen. I think that verizon has EXACTLY the right idea and strategy to create world class competition for the cable providers in their service area.
The WINNER in those areas is going to be the consumers.
The ONLY risk I see with Verizon is that obviously, it's a HUGE project to get FTTH rolled out everywhere they need it to be..and it's just going to take years to accomplish.
And, those years are now giving Comcast and others a big head start.
But, consider for a minute that AT&T hasn't even STARTED with FTTH..except in very select new developments apparently. That puts them even way behind Verizon..and they STILL haven't even acknowledged that they even need to do this yet.
That is what I'm writing about. And it's not a good scenario at all.
Honestly, I wish the AT&T employees who stalk and bash my posts would reconsider what I'm saying here. What I am writing about is for THEIR survival as well...the survival of their company..and their jobs.
If I was an AT&T employee..I'd be saying to my management.."HEY..WE ARE REALLY FALLING BEHIND HERE..in this whole race".
What I am is just a consumer saying what I have now. And ALREADY..what I have now is kicking UVerses A$$ already.
Imagine where Comcast and others will be with Docsis 3.0.
Again..verizon has it right IMHO. And, I know they're proceeding full speed ahead. They just have a very big job ahead of themselves.
--
The Coyote captured the RR! Roadrunner Rick is now Comcastic! |
|
ace1974
join:2007-06-09
Goldsboro, NC
| You must really have some personal issues with telco to really believe they wont exist in the future,,I mean seriously dude what large business will trust cable to handle their special circuit needs, In a lot of places right here in america cable doesn't even go that far out in the county where they can be able to serve customers because their too dam cheap to run the plant cable to them...Don't get me wrong cable and telco are good competition for each other but neither one of these industries are going anywhere..It wont happen in your lifetime or your grandkids lifetime either...It's just like drugs in america there is just too much money to be made for it to go anywhere.. |
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nasadude
join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD
·Comcast
| reply to Rick
said by Rick :... I think that verizon has EXACTLY the right idea and strategy to create world class competition for the cable providers in their service area. The WINNER in those areas is going to be the consumers. ... you keep using the word "competition", but it only applies in the sense that a telco is competing against a cableco. That is not competition in the market sense, that is a duopoly.
in areas where verizon is competing with a cablco for video, verizon has already raised their video rates and cablecos seem to raise rates like clockwork every year no matter what happens.
consumers will never be a winner in a duopoly market, we'll just be less of a loser. |
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Ulmo
join:2005-09-22
San Jose, CA
·Comcast
·SONIC.NET
| reply to ace1974
"You must really have some personal issues with telco" ...
jesus christ. This goes beyond brainwashing: how does someone get so mentally deranged to write something like that? Rick seemed pretty correct to me for the most part, so claiming he has personal issues as a basis for attacking him is just crazy talk (even though I'm sure everyone has their own person and therefore issues about themselves, most of which are good issues and which make them good people). |
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Ulmo
join:2005-09-22
San Jose, CA | reply to nasadude
Agreed. Competition >= Duopoly >= Monopoly for most measures in most instances related to our discussion of quality. |
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etaadmin
join:2002-01-17
Dallas, TX
| reply to Tzale
said by Tzale :... Cable will be forced to upgrade to FTTH in the next decade if they want to keep their head above the water. -Tzale Forced is such a strong word... perhaps cable companies are willing to migrate to 100% fiber as these two articles report.
»www.lightreading.com/document.as···site=cdn
»www.physorg.com/news97832671.html
of course when this happen AT&T will be forced to upgrade to FTTP/FTTP... I wonder if VRADS can be rewired for fiber to the home or they will be scraped and sold on ebay? |
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Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs:
edit:
July 19th, @05:51PM
| reply to nasadude
(reply to nasadude)
Sorry but I really can't agree with you. Look at Intel before AMD became such a force in the CPU market.
They controlled virtually everything. And they priced their cpu's whereever they wanted to at will.
Along comes AMD and their first athlon CPU. That started to change everything and prices came down.
Everyone said at the time that Intel never would or even had to respond to the AMD threat..but the years since certainly proved that wrong.
There is an example of a duopoly, except in a different industry and the very positive effect that AMD had on both providing consumers with a choice as well as driving intel to lower prices and better compete.
In markets where FIOS and cable compete, I predict this same thing will occur, if only in time.
The PROBLEM with AT&T's strategy is that if their product offerings are inferior to cables, then you don't have competition. You simply have a lower class of service, for which they will charge less.
IMHO..that's what's going on right now. It's why cable charges mid 40's per month for their hsi, and telco is forced for the most part into the teens with constant specials.
Cable providers have not stopped raising prices at will..the same way Intel did with every new processor they rolled out. They have no one to fear right now, except for fios in limited areas.
What AT&T is risking by not getting into this raise is almost complete obsolesence I predict. Who is going to want 768k~3Mb DSL service..or even uverses 5.5Mb in the face of what Comcast and others will be rolling out with Docsis 3.0 next year? The gap will just widen so much and so far, AT&T might never catch up.
One also needs to understand that Comcast and others are now ALSO in the telephone business. And, by using their HSI..and video...they can drive the price of telephone connections literaly down to ZERO if they want to.
It's already happening in the form of Triple play.
99.00 and you get digital tv..hsi..and phone service.
That equals zero cost phone service.
Think about this. If AT&T has their landline business drastically reduced..has no HSI speeds to speak of..and is just trying to rely on consumers accepting them as their television provider..what does that equal?
I think it potentially equals the end of AT&T.
Some here are trying to take that statement literally. It's not what I mean. I mean the end of them being a significant player in these businesses. Surely, they'll still be around as a cell provider and business connectivity provider..but if they lose the consumer to the cable co's..they'll never get them back.
AT&T MUST adopt Verizons FIOS program..right now.
Verizon did not come to that decision lightly.
They thought this through. And, came to the same conclusion I have apparently. |
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Tim
Premium
join:2006-06-19
| reply to Rick
said by Rick :And, I predict..that's why they moved full steam ahead with ftth and told their shareholders..we're sorry..but we're spending 25 Billion of your money to do this right...right now. WHO..does AT&T think they are kidding? Is UVERSE going to kill cable? I think it's the laughing stock of Comcast right now. FIOS is great tech, but I still think Verizon has two big problems that they'll never overcome.
1. Scope. No one is going to be a truly major player in the cable business covering 14% of the country. The numbers just aren't there.
2. Cable's massive head start. Pipes alone aren't enough... the future is owning the pipes and providing the content. Time Warner already has plenty of it, and Comcast is building up that particular part of the company. Will Verizon ever sell content to Comcast and Time Warner? Maybe... but it'll be a very long time from now.
So, because AT&T has the smaller investment, the odds are better that they'll actually turn a profit off of it. Their cable segment will likely be small, but it'll make money. |
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dowhattowho
@alltel.net
| reply to Rick
AT&T will be just fine. television is changing to switched digital video and time shifted video,perfect for IPTV.AT&T has everything it needs,a global backbone-AT&T WIRELESS-a huge fiber CO to CO infrastructure. All its competitors pay to use its network. Sprint objected to the merger of Bellsouth and AT&T because 99% of its cell phone traffic would be over AT&T local networks $$ cha-ching $$ cha-ching $$ for AT&T. Cable pays the PSTN (AT&T)to complete phone calls $$ and for their internet traffic $$. Cable is investing millions for voice customers,something AT&T knows is dead,In a very short time your cell phone will bluetooth to your router GOODBYE CABLE VOIP All this money stays with AT&T. NOW look at cable paying other companies to transport voice traffic-internet traffic-cell phone service and if you look at IPTV cable has big problems,A 1GHZ 500 cable node (most are 750 & 860MHZ systems)and you have 50% take-up rate,Thats 250 customers on the node you get 24mbps down and .18mbps up for each customer almost as good as AT&T U-VERSE. CableLabs had it right,cable needs to spend more money.If you look at VZ its not just fttp,its trunk fiber cables running out to the edge of a CO service area. the CO to the NORTH SOUTH EAST AND WEST doing the same thing, any unused fibers will link CO to CO for one hell of a lan network (DO YOU WANT TO PLAY A GAME). VZ said it needs 33% take rate. TELCO CABLE SATELLITE all with 33% works for me. |
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kennedyh
join:2007-07-20
USA
| reply to Rick
WOW. First time ever finding the value in responding to a post. Rick, sorry to admit this, but you're dead on here. Let's hope that AT&T will get off their 'growth by acquisition' strategy and invest in their company properly.
The FTTN route is 'half ass'. I wish AT&T would 'grow some' like Verizon. In fact, AT&T could go the FTTH route more efficiently since most AT&T metro's are less dense with newer infrastructure. Not like the Verizon dilapidated strongholds of NYC, Boston, Phily etc.
Food for thought. Verizon made the decision to sell off it's international and yellow page assets to invest in FTTH. They could have opted to buy out Vodafone's stake in Wireless. However, due to FiOS expense they couldn't afford both. A tough decision, but a good one..
Until this week when a Vodafone insider leak talked about a $160B buyout bid for Verizon and all of it's sbu's including telco (FiOS + copper) and business (former MCI). Even more interesting, Vodafone would then keep wireless, selling off the fixed line assets to recoup a portion of the $160B (later retracted by Vodafone). However if this were to become a reality, say bye bye to Verizon's FTTH. The health of VZ wireless makes FTTH's cost tolerable to Wall St.
Nutshell, and my guess here.. now that Whitacre's retired, the new AT&T will realize it's time to get off the toilet and join the FTTH party. If not soon, AT&T and consumers will lose interest in it's fixed line business for good. BTW, I don't expect stellar results on UVerse come Q2 readout.
Let's all root for AT&T to come to it's senses or else it will indeed be bye bye (for the fixed lines). Verizon could use a better ally in the battle over bandwidth. It's easy for 4 cable co's to focus on one newcomer. Come on AT&T!! |
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