ariesguy
join:2001-01-30
 ·Cox HSI
| reply to Rick
Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now
I haven't followed this thread at all, just skimmed through a bit. I've seen Countrywide mentioned more than a few times. I'm going to throw in my 2 cents since I work for CW.
Friday saw a bunch of Countrywide layoffs. Don't know the exact numbers nationwide, but about 20 offices closed in California. People went in to work, couldn't log into their computers and were told to leave. Most expect Friday was just round one..
Guidelines have changed so much over the last few weeks that we expect production/loan origination to fall by atleast 20-25% immediately. 50% or more is not out of the question, imo. So many loans used reduced documentation, 70-80%. There's no way to keep production up by taking everyone full-doc, which is what they want.
They keep spewing "We're going to gain market share since everyone else is folding.." Problem is, what we did to get market share, we can no longer do. And everything we're going to offer, BOA, Wells, Citi, Chase will be offering the same thing.. but they have more options when it comes to matching/beating competitors pricing. My prediction is that we'll lose market share.
I believe the company will survive, but it's 61,000 workforce will be cut down significantly. They'll lose market share. And they'll be a prime for a takeover by one of the big banks.
And yes. I am looking for a new job. They expect you to take a huge pay cut, ride out the bad market (2 years atleast) and be there for the rebound. CW is out of their mind if they think people are going to wait around for a rebound. |
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justin
Australian
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| said by ariesguy  :Friday saw a bunch of Countrywide layoffs. Don't know the exact numbers nationwide, but about 20 offices closed in California. People went in to work, couldn't log into their computers and were told to leave. Most expect Friday was just round one.. Obviously you work for countrywide.. I don't see any news on these layoffs, though.
So you think the majority of your business was done in the last 12 months by offering low-doc 80%+ loan-to-value products? Do you know of cases where income was over-stated with knowledge of the mortgage officers to get past underwriting or was it more like "lah lah I can't hear you" when a customer said, kinda, nudge nudge, I don't really make this much.. |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
Houston, TX
| said by justin :Do you know of cases where income was over-stated with knowledge of the mortgage officers to get past underwriting or was it more like "lah lah I can't hear you" when a customer said, kinda, nudge nudge, I don't really make this much.. A friend of mine does title work and said there was a lot of this going on, letting people report their own income without any sort of verification.
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone Not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that ALWAYS come in legions."
-John Callari |
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ariesguy
join:2001-01-30
·Cox HSI
| reply to justin
said by justin :said by ariesguy :Friday saw a bunch of Countrywide layoffs. Don't know the exact numbers nationwide, but about 20 offices closed in California. People went in to work, couldn't log into their computers and were told to leave. Most expect Friday was just round one.. Obviously you work for countrywide.. I don't see any news on these layoffs, though. So you think the majority of your business was done in the last 12 months by offering low-doc 80%+ loan-to-value products? Do you know of cases where income was over-stated with knowledge of the mortgage officers to get past underwriting or was it more like "lah lah I can't hear you" when a customer said, kinda, nudge nudge, I don't really make this much.. It happened early Friday, they sent out a email in the afternoon regarding the layoffs, but didn't list any numbers. We should see news on this come Monday.
Last 12 months?? I'd say it's been like this for the last 5 years. Earlier this year you could get a 100% loan-to-value (LTV) reduced doc loan with a 700 Fico. No income verification, all that was required was someone at your office had to say you worked there or you provided a business license. 2 years same line of work. Only other stipulation was you were supposed to have 3 months of principle and interest... which you could get an exception for. We were doing reduced doc all the way down to 540 Ficos.. depending on the LTV. In most cases the borrowers probably didn't know what income was being stated. Overstated income is the norm, not the exception.
We've done so many self-emplyed, tip earners, multiple property owners with no income verification. You're talking legitimate debt-to-income ratios of 40-75%, when it should be around 30%. The world has no idea how many of these actually went through. I'd say in the last year our office did 80% reduced doc loans, some of which could've went full-doc, not many, but some. In our office I'd say 80% of the loans done in the last year were above 80% LTV, TONS at 100% LTV.
People that don't work in the industry have no idea how many people are upside-down in their homes, have zero equity or who's credit is so terrible they can't possibly get a loan anymore.. and they're going to adjust higher. Then forclose, driving up home supply, driving down home prices and sucking more people into the upside-down/no equity/foreclosure boat. It's an ugly cycle that's going to take some time to get through. And it's just starting.
Here's a very common scenario these days:
Loan Officer: "We can't refinance you because (insert reason)."
Borrower: Ok. I'll just foreclose. Thank you.
These people have accepted that they're going to foreclose. And they don't care. It's madness. |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
Houston, TX | Also, 80/20s to get around PMI, right? |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
1 edit | reply to ariesguy
said by ariesguy :And everything we're going to offer, BOA, Wells, Citi, Chase will be offering the same thing.. but they have more options when it comes to matching/beating competitors pricing. My prediction is that we'll lose market share. I believe the company will survive, but it's 61,000 workforce will be cut down significantly. They'll lose market share. And they'll be a prime for a takeover by one of the big banks. And yes. I am looking for a new job. Good luck in your job search. Sucks for many what is taking place.
I have one question and that is if things go the way you are expecting them to, why would the company be a prime takeover? What is the reason a big bank would come in and buy them in your opinion? |
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ariesguy
join:2001-01-30 | reply to AmeritecTech
Of course 80/20! CW is a complete disaster. Up until a few weeks ago we were doing 2nd mortgages up to 100% LTV, cashout with no income documentation with a 660 Fico. |
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ariesguy
join:2001-01-30
·Cox HSI
| reply to sailor
said by sailor :said by ariesguy :And everything we're going to offer, BOA, Wells, Citi, Chase will be offering the same thing.. but they have more options when it comes to matching/beating competitors pricing. My prediction is that we'll lose market share. I believe the company will survive, but it's 61,000 workforce will be cut down significantly. They'll lose market share. And they'll be a prime for a takeover by one of the big banks. And yes. I am looking for a new job. Good luck in your job search. Sucks for many what is taking place. I have one question and that is if things go the way you are expecting them to, why would the company be a prime takeover? What is the reason a big bank would come in and buy them in your opinion? Thanks. I have a very diverse background outside of mortgages, so I'll land on my feet quickly.
They still generate money off their servicing of loans. The origination of refinancing will be strong. Currently the servicing portfolio is $1.4T worth of mortgages, that's a lot of customers with whom you can refinance and have an established relationship with. As many foreclosures that are going to happen, there's still a lot of solid mortgages out there.
Obviously there needs to be more layoffs. Most operations should just be run out of a large call center instead of putting branches everywhere.
I believe CW could be bought for cheap in the future and the parts of the company that's not wanted could be sold off. Of course it depends on how/when the market recovers. |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island |  Interesting, thanks! |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
Houston, TX
| reply to ariesguy
said by ariesguy :It happened early Friday, they sent out a email in the afternoon regarding the layoffs, but didn't list any numbers. We should see news on this come Monday. »money.cnn.com/2007/08/20/news/co···07082006
Bingo bango.
--
"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone Not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that ALWAYS come in legions."
-John Callari |
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Dennis
Premium,Mod
join:2001-01-26
Algonquin, IL | Does this mean I won't have to watch "nobody can do what countrywide can" 500 times on TV now? God I hope so.... |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
Houston, TX
1 edit | said by Dennis :Does this mean I won't have to watch "nobody can do what countrywide can" 500 times on TV now? God I hope so.... said by ariesguy :They keep spewing "We're going to gain market share since everyone else is folding.." Heh, maybe not.
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone Not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that ALWAYS come in legions."
-John Callari |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
 ·Verizon FIOS
| reply to justin
said by justin :Obviously you work for countrywide.. I don't see any news on these layoffs, though. Making news today...
"Countrywide Financial, which is trimming costs amid turbulent credit markets, began laying off staff involved in originating loans, according to a report on Monday in the Wall Street Journal's online edition, citing an internal e-mail".
»www.cnbc.com/id/20353458
»online.wsj.com/article/SB1187580···ats_news |
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Maccawolf
Premium
join:2001-02-20
Hillsdale, NJ | reply to Dennis
sorry to tell you this, but I've already seen it like 5 times today. |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
3 edits | reply to ariesguy
This rumor should cause Countrywide (CFC) to Gap Up at the open in the morning.
Closed today at $19.81 -1.62 (7.56%) and down also almost another 2% after hours..Should have a hell of a open price on the Buffett rumor.
____
Buffett could buy parts of Countrywide: report
»biz.yahoo.com/rb/070820/countryw···tml?.v=1 |
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CKizer
Raptus Regaliter
Premium
join:2003-01-29
Tijeras, NM
| If Warrens buying, I'm buying. 
quote:
Buffett told TV network CNBC last week that the worsening credit and housing markets may present some "real" investment opportunities.
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vic102482
Premium
join:2002-04-30
Upper Marlboro, MD
| said by CKizer :If Warrens buying, I'm buying. quote:
Buffett told TV network CNBC last week that the worsening credit and housing markets may present some "real" investment opportunities.
That is the exact way that I am looking at it.
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justin
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| You guys seem to think everything is meandering along a flat line - things are sometimes hot, sometimes cold. But I think there might be a growing problem. Witness this graphic.
These trends cannot continue:
When they stop, reverse, and a new economy must be formed, I'm not sure that any predictions about stocks always returning more than inflation over the long term, or always performing better than bonds or cash will remain true. |
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CKizer
Raptus Regaliter
Premium
join:2003-01-29
Tijeras, NM
| said by justin :I'm not sure that any predictions about stocks always returning more than inflation over the long term, or always performing better than bonds or cash will remain true. If that were the case, then there would not be any incentive to be, stay, or invest in business. All craziness aside, stocks are still ownership in a business, bonds are debt, and cash is the medium of exchange. The last two serve no purpose without the first.
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Crunching for Help Defeat Cancer and FightAIDS@Home at the World Community Grid. |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
Houston, TX
| said by CKizer :said by justin :I'm not sure that any predictions about stocks always returning more than inflation over the long term, or always performing better than bonds or cash will remain true. If that were the case, then there would not be any incentive to be, stay, or invest in business. All craziness aside, stocks are still ownership in a business, bonds are debt, and cash is the medium of exchange. The last two serve no purpose without the first. Except that deficit spending in the federal government is at all-new highs, and they need to borrow a lot of money.
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone Not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that ALWAYS come in legions."
-John Callari |
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