ariesguy
join:2001-01-30
 ·Cox HSI
| reply to sailor
Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now
said by sailor  :said by ariesguy :And everything we're going to offer, BOA, Wells, Citi, Chase will be offering the same thing.. but they have more options when it comes to matching/beating competitors pricing. My prediction is that we'll lose market share. I believe the company will survive, but it's 61,000 workforce will be cut down significantly. They'll lose market share. And they'll be a prime for a takeover by one of the big banks. And yes. I am looking for a new job. Good luck in your job search. Sucks for many what is taking place. I have one question and that is if things go the way you are expecting them to, why would the company be a prime takeover? What is the reason a big bank would come in and buy them in your opinion? Thanks. I have a very diverse background outside of mortgages, so I'll land on my feet quickly.
They still generate money off their servicing of loans. The origination of refinancing will be strong. Currently the servicing portfolio is $1.4T worth of mortgages, that's a lot of customers with whom you can refinance and have an established relationship with. As many foreclosures that are going to happen, there's still a lot of solid mortgages out there.
Obviously there needs to be more layoffs. Most operations should just be run out of a large call center instead of putting branches everywhere.
I believe CW could be bought for cheap in the future and the parts of the company that's not wanted could be sold off. Of course it depends on how/when the market recovers. |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island |  Interesting, thanks! |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
| reply to ariesguy
said by ariesguy :said by sailor :said by ariesguy :And everything we're going to offer, BOA, Wells, Citi, Chase will be offering the same thing.. but they have more options when it comes to matching/beating competitors pricing. My prediction is that we'll lose market share. I believe the company will survive, but it's 61,000 workforce will be cut down significantly. They'll lose market share. And they'll be a prime for a takeover by one of the big banks. And yes. I am looking for a new job. Good luck in your job search. Sucks for many what is taking place. I have one question and that is if things go the way you are expecting them to, why would the company be a prime takeover? What is the reason a big bank would come in and buy them in your opinion? Thanks. I have a very diverse background outside of mortgages, so I'll land on my feet quickly. They still generate money off their servicing of loans. The origination of refinancing will be strong. Currently the servicing portfolio is $1.4T worth of mortgages, that's a lot of customers with whom you can refinance and have an established relationship with. As many foreclosures that are going to happen, there's still a lot of solid mortgages out there. Obviously there needs to be more layoffs. Most operations should just be run out of a large call center instead of putting branches everywhere. I believe CW could be bought for cheap in the future and the parts of the company that's not wanted could be sold off. Of course it depends on how/when the market recovers. Check this out:
Countrywide: BofA Made a $2B Investment
»biz.yahoo.com/ap/070822/countryw···ml?.v=12 |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA | Interesting play by BofA... |
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ariesguy
join:2001-01-30 | reply to sailor
See, it's still attractive to some.  |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
3 edits | reply to aztecnology
said by aztecnology :Interesting play by BofA... Yeah and check this out.
Today there were over 5,000 September Calls with a strike price of $25.00 traded with the last one going off at $1.20 or for $120.00 for each CALL. ( $1.20x100)...
»finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CFCIE.X
This is with the stock closing at $21.82.
Now tomorrow the stock should gap up to around the $26-$28.00 range on this news and could go over $30.00 but for argument sake let's say it trades around $30.00. Each ONE of those CALL Options that last cost $120.00 for each one will now be worth a minimum of $500.00 if the stock trades at $30.00. ( $5.00 IN THE MONEY plus some time value)
So for every say 10 calls you bought today which would cost you $1200.00 you can turn right around tomorrow and sell-to-close-out all 10 and get back a minimum of $5,000.00 ( if the stock hits or trades at $30.00)
Sweet
And here I was watching the stock pop up some this morning »finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CFC&t=1d
but I was thinking of buying PUTS....but when I saw the stock go over $23.00 something didn't seem right so I didn't buy the PUTS ( thank goodness)....The stock then later sold off quite a bit but late in the day came back some..
Pays to be either a good gambler (buying the CALLS) today or having some info before it goes public. 
»finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CFCIE.X
Edited: To add ..and just think of all those gamblers who bought CALLS yesterday after the Buffett rumor hit and then when nothing happened today, they closed them out so they wouldn't lose their money only to see tonight the news about BOA...and tomorrow they will be sick when they see those same calls probably jumping 5x's or more in value.
Window jumping time.. |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
| reply to ariesguy
said by ariesguy :See, it's still attractive to some. It would be great if all those who lost their jobs last week could get them back. |
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Dark Shoes
Premium
join:2002-06-27
Montreal, QC
2 edits | reply to sailor
said by sailor :To add ..and just think of all those gamblers who bought CALLS yesterday after the Buffett rumor hit and then when nothing happened today, they closed them out so they wouldn't lose their money only to see tonight the news about BOA...and tomorrow they will be sick when they see those same calls probably jumping 5x's or more in value. Window jumping time.. Buy on rumour, sell on the news.
But the key part is to always wait until the news actually comes out, lol.   |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
| You know CFC is up over $26.00 in after hours trading on this BOA news but once people start dissecting the numbers it just might not turn out to be such a positive for CFC shareholders..
Tomorrow, especially at the open, should be very interesting for CFC. I would guess it will be UP due to the 5k September 25 CALL Volume I made note of. But we will have to see what happens in the morning after the number crunchers check out every single detail of this BOA announcement...Could end up being a real deal for BOA and not a deal for CFC shareholders.
We'll soon find out. |
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Dark Shoes
Premium
join:2002-06-27
Montreal, QC
1 edit | said by sailor :Could end up being a real deal for BOA and not a deal for CFC shareholders. We'll soon find out. That's what happens a lot with these so-called equity deals. It's called shareholder dilution.
From what we know so far the deal is composed of dividend paying preferred shares that can be, but not necessarily, converted into common shares at $18. Which if converted represents close to 20% of the common shares.
There are also restrictions, i.e. once converted they can't be sold for 18 months. What happens though if things like the dividends are in arrears? Does that benefit BoA and remove some of the restrictions. Or improve their equity stake? The devil is always in the details that's for sure.
Under the terms of the deal, Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America acquired $2 billion in the form of nonvoting, convertible preferred stock yielding 7.25 percent annually, Countrywide said. The shares can be converted into common shares of Countrywide at $18 per share, with certain restrictions. » biz.yahoo.com/ap/070822/countryw···ml?.v=12
Edit: Just some quick math but a 7.25% yield on $2 billion equals $145 million in dividends per year that must be paid to BoA.
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You have to wear the foil shiny side out or it doesn't work. - Hanrahan |
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justin
Australian
join:1999-05-28
Brooklyn, NY | »nakedshorts.typepad.com/nakedsho···-ac.html
very funny. |
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JSRoman
Premium
join:2005-03-10
Callahan, FL
| reply to Dark Shoes
I called this one last week.
»Re: Stock Market Crashing...down 330 points right now
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»www.seabee.navy.mil |
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aztecnology
O Rly?
Premium
join:2003-02-12
Murrieta, CA
 ·Verizon FIOS
1 edit | That remains to be seen, right now i give them a 50/50 chance.
Was just wacthing Angelo on CNBC and he said some interesting things, that they are making their best loans in 10 years with the best pricing in 5 years...? Then in the next breath that were heading to recession... |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
1 edit | reply to sailor
said by sailor :said by aztecnology :Interesting play by BofA... Yeah and check this out. Today there were over 5,000 September Calls with a strike price of $25.00 traded with the last one going off at $1.20 or for $120.00 for each CALL. ( $1.20x100)... » finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CFCIE.XThis is with the stock closing at $21.82. snip... So much for those Sept 25 CALL option holders making out..
CFC not only couldn't hold yesterday after hours surge but except for a quick open gap up a little over $24.00 the stock traded sideways to down from there..
Options traded lower as well
»finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CFCIE.X
The fact that CFC could not rally on this BOA news is not good for them ( IMO ) One of the things I watch for is a stock which fails to hold a "gap up" in the face of what is perceived to be "good news". Even worse, is the stock not only fails to hold a gap up but also declines after news...This can lead to a good shorting opportunity as stocks who react like this can and will thread lower and lower.
After seeing where CFC closed today ( $22.02) »finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cfc
being a trader and leaving out all emotions, I would have shorted them at the close today....1,000 share short but I didn't and I won't because too much BS going on. There are much better opportunities to trade right now than this fiasco. |
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AmeritecTech
Change we can believe in, 1922
Premium
join:2002-09-06
Houston, TX
| reply to aztecnology
said by aztecnology :Was just wacthing Angelo on CNBC and he said some interesting things, that they are making their best loans in 10 years with the best pricing in 5 years...? I can believe that. Paranoid documentation now combined with a lot of free money injected by the Fed.
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"Independent thinkers tend to ALWAYS have someone Not agreeing with them. It's The non-thinkers that ALWAYS come in legions."
-John Callari |
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sailor
Merry Whatever ..R.I.P. dadkins
Premium
join:2003-10-21
Long Island
4 edits | reply to sailor
said by sailor :After seeing where CFC closed today ( $22.02) » finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cfcbeing a trader and leaving out all emotions, I would have shorted them at the close today....1,000 share short but I didn't and I won't because too much BS going on. There are much better opportunities to trade right now than this fiasco. With CFC closing today at $19.31, as I expected would have been a great short to pick up a quick 3k or so by covering the short at today's close.
»finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cfc
But I haven't traded anything lately..The market should be on its way to a 1000+ point tumble from here but out in The Hamptons, the Wall Street honcho's and Hedge Fund managers aren't even breaking a sweat while they sip champagne out of miniature bottles due to the word out there is the fix is in.( The Fed to cut rates)..I, for one, hope they don't cut rates as that is what really helped get us in this current mess in the first place but today it is all about the rich getting richer and the poor (and middle class) getting poorer. 
The market should be allowed to correct on its own but with our 4-5 year fiasco in Iraq and Afghanistan a total mess, expect the administration to avoid letting the market tank as well as avoid at all cost talk about the economy and housing by using yet another diversion by ratcheting up the talk about the other boogie-man, Iran.
We shall see how this plays out. If a rate cut is imminent, the only question is will they wait until after Labor Day for the Hamptonites to get back into the city or will they make a surprise announcement tomorrow or sometime this week. |
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