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Forums » Japanese Trends Predict Future Without PCs » U.S. starting to see trend as well
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tschmidt
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join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH
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reply to TKJunkMail
Re: U.S. starting to see trend as well

We are seeing the fulfillment of the old Sun mantra "the network is the computer."

PCs started out as standalone computing devices. The proliferation of low cost wired and wireless networking has changed the balance where now PCs are often used as glorified terminals accessing remote data.

Usage and packaging will continue to evolve. As others have mentioned the PC is a fantastic general purpose computer. There are many other uses that do not require general purpose and function better as a purpose built device.

I think decline in PC market growth has less to do with it being eclipsed by other devices then market saturation in industrialized countries. Our home is networked and we have one (at least) PC per person with another dedicated as a server. It will be quite a while before we need to purchase another one.

/tom

jp10558
Premium
join:2005-06-24
Willseyville, NY

I expect the issue however, is that there is still a huge advantage to having one device vs many. I mean, look at smartphones - they are more or less a tiny PC. You can't mean to tell me most users would want to carry a ZipIM device (IIRC the name, does AIM wirelessly), a camera, a PALM PDA, an e-mail device, a phone, a GPS and an e-book reader for instance. No, most people will take a bunch of that combined into a Blackberry or iPhone or whatever.

While consoles have remained big for gaming, I just haven't seen many people doing wordprocessing on them. And towards general purpose, how many people have a PS2 or PS3 and dumped their extra DVD Player? Or didn't buy a Blu-Ray player?

How many people use an X-Box for both games and XBMC as opposed to yet another device for streaming video? Or for the build it yourself, got a PC with MYTHTV and more...

Finally, I actually think this is just a shift - Most people have dropped "word processors" for computers + editor of choice, many like keeping gaming on a console. Not too many have moved to WebTV or the like for browsing/email.

However, it is true that many households have one pc per person, possibly a server, and sometimes laptops too. Until we open up China/India or whatever more, the developed world has pretty much reached a saturation point, and PC sales will be more like Washing Machine sales from now on, then a growth industry.
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