Optimized
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December 12th, @01:07AM
| Tropical Storm Olga
000
WTNT42 KNHC 110255
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 PM EDT MON DEC 10 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH BROAD...SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER. DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IT IS BEING DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. NOAA BUOY
41043 NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS TWICE REPORTED 1-MIN AVERAGE WINDS OF
33 KT AT AN ELEVATION OF 5 METERS...WHICH SUGGESTS TROPICAL-STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE STANDARD SURFACE ELEVATION OF 10
METERS. BASED ON ALL THIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM OLGA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. OLGA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND STEER OLGA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND
IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS.
OLGA CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...
WITH OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
SUPPRESSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THIS
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY
DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION BY PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA...SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST OLGA TO WEAKEN TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH BY 36-48 HR... WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
DISSIPATION IN 60 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR OLGA TO SURVIVE FOR 48 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WFO SAN JUAN...IT WAS DECIDED THAT
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE NOT NEEDED FOR PUERTO RICO SINCE THE
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 18.5N 65.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 18.5N 67.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 18.4N 70.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 73.8W 25 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 76.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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ropeguru
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Hollywood, FL
clubs: | Re: Subtropical Storm Olga
Here we go again.... (Yeah, read into that what you would like.)
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sharkpedal
join:2005-05-04
PA | reply to Optimized
Why not call it Tropical? They are posting Tropical Storm Warnings not "Subtropical". |
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Dogwood
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Texas
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 ·OneSource Communic..
| said by sharkpedal  :Why not call it Tropical? They are posting Tropical Storm Warnings not "Subtropical". NWS NHC says:
"DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...IT IS BEING DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE."
Not sure what that means exactly though.
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ropeguru
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Hollywood, FL
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| reply to Optimized
Ok, what in the crap is up at NHC?? Olga is forecasted to head due west, for the most part and come no where near Florida. However, if you look at the active watches and warnings, there is a tropical storm warning in effect from the Keys all the way up the east coast of Florida.
Have these folks gone bonkers and just trying to keep everyone on the global warming kick??
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Dogwood
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| said by ropeguru :Ok, what in the crap is up at NHC?? Olga is forecasted to head due west, for the most part and come no where near Florida. However, if you look at the active watches and warnings, there is a tropical storm warning in effect from the Keys all the way up the east coast of Florida. Have these folks gone bonkers and just trying to keep everyone on the global warming kick?? Sorry, but I don't see that.
121107_4PM
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ropeguru
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| Maybe the above helps. The red color all up the east coast of FL is a tropical storm warning.
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Optimized
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| reply to Optimized
Re: Tropical Storm Olga
000
WTNT42 KNHC 120233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION BECAME MORE
TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE
CENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATED
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS
MEASURED BY THE PLANE REACHED 55 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND 54
KNOTS BY SFMR. THE PROXIMITY OF THE WINDS TO THE CENTER AND THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED THAT OLGA MADE THE TRANSITION
TO A TROPICAL STORM. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT MEASURE DATA
FROM OLGA'S CENTER BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAD ALREADY MOVED INLAND
PRIOR TO A POSSIBLE PENETRATION.
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS BUT MOST LIKELY...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON IF IT HAS NOT STARTED ALREADY DUE
TO OLGA'S INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN
LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANES RARELY SURVIVE IT.
OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS
INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AND OLGA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT
WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR OLGA TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF
LAND AND EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR
ALONG ITS PATH. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF KEEP OLGA AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FIVE DAYS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
WHICH IS ALREADY WET FROM NOEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 19.0N 70.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.5N 76.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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sharkpedal
join:2005-05-04
PA
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|  reply to ropeguru
Re: Subtropical Storm Olga
Ropeguru, that's the NWS map isnt it?
»www.nhc.noaa.gov - National Hurr Cntr
»www.nws.noaa.gov - National Weather Service
You would think by looking at their URL's that they may be closer in their warning maps. I thinks its irresponsible that the 3&5 day warning cone from the NHC differs from the NWS coastal warnings. Based on Olga going tropical storm, whom do you point the trust meter towards? |
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Dogwood
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| said by sharkpedal :You would think by looking at their URL's that they may be closer in their warning maps. I thinks its irresponsible that the 3&5 day warning cone from the NHC differs from the NWS coastal warnings. Based on Olga going tropical storm, whom do you point the trust meter towards? That is the NWS Warnings and Forecast Map, and it does NOT show any Topical Storm watches or warnings for the Coastal or Near Coastal US.
It does show TS warning for off shore/deep water Atlantic east of Florida and Small Craft warning for The Keys and a few other Florida coastal areas.
I believe these are posted due to the swells and rough seas that storm produce sometime far off from there forecast center point.
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sharkpedal
join:2005-05-04
PA | Ok, now that makes sense when I look at the NWS map again...thanks dogwood |
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bjbdbest
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| reply to Optimized
Re: Tropical Storm Olga
Residents from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola to Cuba will need to watch for river and stream runoff for the next few days from all of the rain that Olga has and will dump.
Conditions will improve by the late weekend in the region as Olga remnants move slowly away toward southwestern Cuba and the Yucatan and continues to weaken. Squally weather will heavy rain will follow the pathway of the system, so keep your guard up southwestern Cuba to the Yucatan Saturday into Sunday night.
A comprehensive recap of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season follows.
As the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season officially came to a close on November 30, with some fanfare with Olga past the end of the season into December, NOAA scientists are now carefully reviewing a set of dynamic weather patterns that yielded lower-than-expected hurricane activity across the Atlantic Basin. As a result, the United States was largely spared from significant landfalling storms. However several noteworthy events took place, including two back-to-back Category 5 hurricanes hitting Central America and the rapid near-shore intensification of the single U.S. landfalling hurricane.
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Hayward
K A R - 1 2 0 C
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join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
edit:
December 13th, @12:10AM
| reply to Dogwood
Re: Subtropical Storm Olga
said by Dogwood : That is the NWS Warnings and Forecast Map, and it does NOT show any Topical Storm watches or warnings for the Coastal or Near Coastal US. It does show TS warning for off shore/deep water Atlantic east of Florida and Small Craft warning for The Keys and a few other Florida coastal areas. I believe these are posted due to the swells and rough seas that storm produce sometime far off from there forecast center point. And that is why my weather radio here in the Keys is almost NEVER on auto alert (unless an on coming known storm threat, otherwise virtually 98% of alerts are MARINE warnings... I wish they could come up with a way to differentiate the two both in maps and warnings. Like multiple alert tones... oneth by land twoith by sea sort of thing, they though of back in the American Revolution, even  (and even works for simple digital 1 and 0 logic)
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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
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join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
 ·AT&T Southeast
| Actually, that's already here and done by the Weather service. Using a SAME Equipped receiver after you enter the code for your county you should not hear the marine warnings. The SAME data is in the (as we in broadcast call it) Duck farts, that you hear before the 1050Hz tone. It's the exact same data format that Broadcast stations use for EAS, Water and land do have different codes. |
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Hayward
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Key West, FL
edit:
December 13th, @12:25AM
| Guess I'll have to get a new one.... how long has that existed? The basic radios of the past few years (mine like 3-4 years old) don;t seem to offer it.
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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL
·AT&T Southeast
| said by Hayward :Guess I'll have to get a new one.... how long has that existed? The basic radios of the past few years (mine like 3-4 years old) don;t seem to offer it. For about 7-9 years, but if you didn't look carefully and know what you wanted it's not that easy to pick out from those not equipped with SAME. If you look at the map that Rope Guru posted those blocks are showing the SAME areas. Note that map is too small to see that Monroe Co land is different than the surrounding coastal waters but it is. There are also up to 9 subdivisions for each of the blocks, but for the most part they are not used yet. If you get one the fun part is trying to figure out what your code is. I found this to be a real pain for the one I bought (Midland) had I not known the codes it would have really been a problem. In your case Monroe Co is 012087 and if it allows subdivisions West Monroe is 412087. |
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