 pnh102Reptiles Are Cuddly And PrettyPremium
join:2002-05-02
Mount Airy, MD | Merril Lynch = Idiots quote:
Merril Lynch today stated that the U.S. has officially entered its first full blown recession in sixteen years ...
First recession in 16 years?
Um hello? The recession of 2000-2002 wasn't that long ago.
And have they even bothered looking at the growth of the economy in the past few quarters? A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP. This has not happened.
What evidence exists that there is a real recession?
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1 edit | said by pnh102: quote:
Merril Lynch today stated that the U.S. has officially entered its first full blown recession in sixteen years ...
First recession in 16 years? Um hello? The recession of 2000-2002 wasn't that long ago. Recession classically defined as:
»www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.htmltwo consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP But the NBER looks at other info as well and not just the classical definition.
And you are right. There was an 8 month recession from March to Nov, 2001. »www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
So, Merrill Lynch's pronouncement was wrong. And their pronouncement is self serving. They are trying to spin their companies financial woes as some 16 year aberration instead of mostly poor management.
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| reply to fAcEtIOUs
said by fAcEtIOUs:And their pronouncement is self serving. They are trying to spin their companies financial woes as some 16 year aberration instead of mostly poor management. I think you're close. I think they're trying to influence the Fed's upcoming decision to reduce rates again. If they throw the "R" bomb, disrupting the market, etc., the Fed may be more likely to cave in again to calm the markets.
Merril's been hit hard by the sub-prime mess. They need more liquidity in the credit market.
Mark |
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 whizkid3Premium,MVM
join:2002-02-21
Queens, NY
kudos:8 | reply to pnh102
said by pnh102:A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP. This has not happened. What evidence exists that there is a real recession? Real GDP numbers, instead of the doctored ones the govt has been providing:
»www.shadowstats.com/article/57 |
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| said by whizkid3:said by pnh102:A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP. This has not happened. What evidence exists that there is a real recession? Real GDP numbers, instead of the doctored ones the govt has been providing: » www.shadowstats.com/article/57 Right! Reality according to conspiracy theorist.
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| reply to pnh102
Actually, since people used their credit cards in record numbers during Christmas, that was pretty much a recessionary attitude.
Oil and food prices are most of inflation. But, with the housing bubble getting popped, a recession is inevitable with Americans in record credit card debt, and debt in general.
Hate to rain on your parades, a recession will benefit Republicans in November NOT Democrats since people will vote with their wallet.
The Fed will have to lower rates again.
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 linicxCaveat EmptorPremium
join:2002-12-03
United State | reply to fAcEtIOUs
Didn't Merril Lynch recently sell off to China?
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pnh102Reptiles Are Cuddly And PrettyPremium
join:2002-05-02
Mount Airy, MD | reply to supergirl
said by supergirl:Actually, since people used their credit cards in record numbers during Christmas, that was pretty much a recessionary attitude. It might, but it isn't uncommon for us to break the bank with credit cards around this time. In fact, if we decided to actually spend our personal assets without resorting to borrowing, then we would be in a depression.
said by supergirl:Oil and food prices are most of inflation. But, with the housing bubble getting popped, a recession is inevitable with Americans in record credit card debt, and debt in general. Well the way I see it, the housing bubble only screws the banks. That is why they are pushing so hard for a government bailout while disguising it as "relief" for people who will lose houses that they should not have bought in the first place. These people still probably have jobs and will most likely move back into housing that they can afford and continue with their lives... unless of course they worked for one of the banks.
said by supergirl:Hate to rain on your parades, a recession will benefit Republicans in November NOT Democrats since people will vote with their wallet. True. Bill Clinton was only able to capitalize on the 1992 recession because Ross Perot was in the race.
said by supergirl:The Fed will have to lower rates again. One can hope! 
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join:2005-12-31
Raleigh, NC | reply to supergirl
said by supergirl:Hate to rain on your parades, a recession will benefit Republicans in November NOT Democrats since people will vote with their wallet. Yes, just in time for the well-known republican safety net to come to the rescue. |
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| reply to pnh102
Actually, I've been in on discussions about a recession coming for two months. And, I've gotten newsletters from Wall Street hoping we're not in one already.
The Fed will have to lower rates since oil as inflation isn't really inflation but wild speculation by the same idiots involved in the subprime mess, and another bunch of idiots speculating trying to make a buck at the average American's expense.
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Saving the world keeps me busy. However, I find Earth very primitive from my home planet of Krypton.
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pnh102Reptiles Are Cuddly And PrettyPremium
join:2002-05-02
Mount Airy, MD | said by supergirl:The Fed will have to lower rates since oil as inflation isn't really inflation but wild speculation by the same idiots involved in the subprime mess, and another bunch of idiots speculating trying to make a buck at the average American's expense. Unfortunately, as long we continue to not exploit our own energy resources, speculators will continue to be able to exploit an unnecessarily tight energy market.
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said by pnh102:A recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP. This has not happened. I don't believe the most recent GDP numbers are available are they? The Q3 numbers (really estimates) were released in December. ML may be basing their opinion on expected Q4 numbers, and that the Q3 numbers will be revised downwards, which isn't unusual.
I guess it's a fine line between someone saying future numbers will show we are now in a recession versus the official declaration which can't occur until sometime after the recession actually started.
I still think ML (and today, Goldman Sachs) are doing this to rattle the market because they want the Fed (next week) to reduce interest rates. These guys desperately need it because they're heavily exposed to the credit crunch. They may end up being proven correct. But, I bet their biases have a lot to do with their decision-making.
Mark |
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