2 edits | Google won't get it even if they want it I think that Verizon and/or AT&T will bid enough to shut out Google even if they decided that they wanted the spectrum. Google would be a big disruption to their existing business and they will do what it takes to keep them out.
I think Google will bid the minimum of $4.6B to make sure the spectrum is leased to someone(thereby preventing a new auction later w/o open access rules) and then try to lobby Congress and the FCC to make sure the winner(the telcos) honor the rules about open access.
P.S.> That block of spectrum would have been put up again without open access rules if no one bid the minimum. Most analysts think Google got in to the bidding and will bid the minimum to make sure that doesn't happen.
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kudos:2 | said by fAcEtIOUs:I think Google will bid the minimum of $4.6B to make sure the spectrum is leased to someone(thereby preventing a new auction later w/o open access rules) and then try to lobby Congress and the FCC to make sure the winner(the telcos) honor the rules about open access. Even if they [Google] successfully lobbied Congress and the FCC to make sure the winner (assuming it is AT&T/Verizon) honors the rules about open access, that doesn't change that nothing will result in them actually not honoring the the rules.
We've already seen countless of examples where the telcos have gone around the law to get what they want, and nobody in our government has done anything about it. And we all know how Martin loves telcos. |
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2 edits | reply to fAcEtIOUs
said by fAcEtIOUs:I think that Verizon and/or AT&T will bid enough to shut out Google even if they decided that they wanted the spectrum. Google would be a big disruption to their existing business and they will do what it takes to keep them out. I think Google will bid the minimum of $4.6B to make sure the spectrum is leased to someone(thereby preventing a new auction later w/o open access rules) and then try to lobby Congress and the FCC to make sure the winner(the telcos) honor the rules about open access. P.S.> That block of spectrum would have been put up again without open access rules if no one bid the minimum. Most analysts think Google got in to the bidding and will bid the minimum to make sure that doesn't happen. The FCC uses the John Nash equations (A Beautiful Mind) for their spectrum auctions. A genius friend of mine analyzed the equations (on his Cray) and has determined that the only one who benefits from these auctions is the FCC! Bidders actually pay MORE in spectrum auctions then they would pay on the open market for the same or similar spectrum. What's contributing to the frenzy this time is the characteristics of this particular frequency range (it has a great combination of range, building penetration, cost of transmission, etc.). This will likely go for ten billion dollars.
Whether who ever gets it can ever break even is anyone's guess. The landscape is littered with companies who spent so much acquiring RF spectrum that they could never afford to build it out.
There are no bargains to be had...whatsoever. |
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