TKJunkMail
Enjoy the sun
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
 ·Sprint Mobile Broa..
 ·Comcast
2 edits |  CoC & ROI
The cost of capital and return on investment are 2 financial terms that will affect this decision. Comcast, and any other large corporation, has dozens of financial analysts that make these kinds of evaluations all the time. Comcast will switch to all fiber when the numbers are persuasive that that is the best economic decision and not before.
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KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
 ·AT&T Yahoo
·AT&T DSL Service
·Cox HSI
·AT&T Southwest
| The issue that holds this back is ROI and what they consider acceptable profit.
You and I might think 10% profit after all expenses is great... but who knows what they might have targeted. They may be sitting back until it's 50% profit or more.... which means we could be waiting awhile.
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"Regulatory capitalism is when companies invest in lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians, instead of plant, people, and customer service." - former FCC Chairman William Kennard (A real FCC Chairman, unlike the current Corporate Spokesperson in the job!) |
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lostinthewest
@QWEST.NET
| reply to TKJunkMail
EDFAs and power dividers replace the node, replace the coax with fiber with niu's at the premise and do all Gqam transport. Start with new areas and expand into areas that need rebuilt. Add a direct (or remote) network control system in the headend. It can also be done preserving an existing analog tier if the marked demands it. Not only is fiber cheaper than coax it would do away with power supplies, electrical distortion anomalies and CLI requirements. Capital better spent with a longer ROI.
Makes sense and I'm not even a vendor, LOL. |
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N3OGH
Bear patrol must be working like a charm
Premium
join:2003-11-11
Philly burbs
 ·Verizon FIOS
·Verizon Online DSL
| reply to TKJunkMail
Comcast will switch to all fiber when the think it's the best economic decision.
I think most companies in America are incredibly short sighted. Comcast is looking to wring out as much profit quarter to quarter.
10 years from now, Comcast is going to be in a similar position to Verizon. Except it will be Comcast bleeding TV subs to Verizon, and not Verizon bleeding land lines to Digital Voice, and other VoIP offerings. Then Comcast will be installing FTTH.
Except 10 years from now, it will cost significantly more for them to do it.
But what do I know? I mean, after all I spend 45 minutes on the phone last nigh trying to explain to the Comcast CSR that I can't return a DVR box I all ready turned in, and that my bill should be for $51 and not $89, as I DON'T HAVE THE DAMN BOX ANYMORE!
grrr 
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Petty people are disproportionably corrupted by petty power… |
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wifi4milez
Big Russ, 1918 to 2008. Rest in Peace
join:2004-08-07
New York, NY
·Verizon FIOS
·Sprint Mobile Broa..
·RoadRunner Cable
 ·BroadVoice
| said by N3OGH  :10 years from now, Comcast is going to be in a similar position to Verizon. Except it will be Comcast bleeding TV subs to Verizon, and not Verizon bleeding land lines to Digital Voice, and other VoIP offerings. Then Comcast will be installing FTTH. Except 10 years from now, it will cost significantly more for them to do it. I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however).
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Весна прибыла |
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tomkb
Premium
join:2000-11-15
Avon, OH
clubs:
·RoadRunner Cable
| reply to TKJunkMail
said by TKJunkMail :The cost of capital and return on investment are 2 financial terms that will affect this decision. Comcast, and any other large corporation, has dozens of financial analysts that make these kinds of evaluations all the time. Comcast will switch to all fiber when the numbers are persuasive that that is the best economic decision and not before. Good point. There is one other catalyst, when one of there competitors begins to offer it. |
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Sammer
join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA
| reply to wifi4milez
said by wifi4milez :I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however). The cost of the fiber optical cable and equipment may very well go down but the cost of labor won't. Verizon costs per sub have gone down because their farther along the learning curve. If the cost of the labor was zero most of us would probably have FTTP today. |
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nasadude
join:2001-10-05
Rockville, MD
·Comcast
| reply to TKJunkMail
said by TKJunkMail :...Comcast will switch to all fiber when the numbers are persuasive that that is the best economic decision and not before. as long as the existing monopoly/duopoly market persists, there will be no reason for comcast to go all fiber under any ROI conditions. With a captive market, there will simply be no reason for them to spend the money and they will incrementally upgrade their hybrid cable plant to squeeze as much as possible out of it, just like ATT is doing with copper.
I'm still amazed Verizon actually decided to lay fiber and the only reason I can think of is they panicked when they realized the rate at which they were losing POTS customers and decided to "future proof" their network for the coming convergence of broadband/tv/voice. |
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bobjohnsonfl
@spcsdns.net | reply to KrK
it will be a very long time for cable because the customers dont want to pay for the upgrades |
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bobjohnson
Premium
join:2007-02-03
Titusville, FL | now that I can log in... If you look at the FiOS project and how fast the price is going up.. Just imagine Comcast put in the same position.. |
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patcat88
join:2002-04-05
Jamaica, NY | reply to N3OGH
Comcast wont be in the same position as Verizon, Comcast still has customers in "We dont give a ****" land (Embarq, Windstream, Qwest) and inferior 99 cent TV from ATT. |
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TScheisskopf
World News Trust
join:2005-02-13
Belvidere, NJ | reply to Sammer
The way things are going, I would think that a national cost for labor of 0 should be achieved by 4th quarter, 08.  |
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N10Cities
SILENCE I Keel You
Premium
join:2002-05-07
Roland, OK
clubs:
·Cox HSI
·World Lynx
1 edit | reply to Sammer
said by Sammer :said by wifi4milez :I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however). The cost of the fiber optical cable and equipment may very well go down but the cost of labor won't. Verizon costs per sub have gone down because their farther along the learning curve. If the cost of the labor was zero most of us would probably have FTTP today. And your point is?? Should these techs be working for free? Install techs gotta put food on the table and pay bills like the rest of us.  Cost of labor to install fiber will then be equal to copper once the costs come down on the hardware. Wouldn't be any excuse for the ILECs to not install fiber then... |
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compton
join:2002-02-08
Brooklyn, NY
| reply to wifi4milez
said by wifi4milez :said by N3OGH :10 years from now, Comcast is going to be in a similar position to Verizon. Except it will be Comcast bleeding TV subs to Verizon, and not Verizon bleeding land lines to Digital Voice, and other VoIP offerings. Then Comcast will be installing FTTH. Except 10 years from now, it will cost significantly more for them to do it. I disagree. In 10 years the cost to roll out fiber will actually be much cheaper than it is today. Look at Verizon's FIOS rollout; their cost per sub is already down more than 20% in the past 2 or 3 years, and continues to go down as equipment and plant prices drop. As fiber becomes more of a "mainstream" option for carriers, the prices will get so low that using copper will actually be more expensive to deploy (that will take more than 10 years however).
Have you seen the price of copper recently. People are stealing utility power lines for the copper. They are also stealing the catalytic converters off of cars for the copper. Copper prices are going up while fiber prices are going down. If the trend continues, I predict in 5 years or less it will be cheaper to run fiber cables than copper cables. At that time it would be better for the cable companies to sell their copper cables and replace it with fiber; that is, if copper thieves don't get to them first. |
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MacLeech
The one and only
Premium
join:2001-07-14
SoCal
1 edit | Coax cables are mainly aluminum and foam. The copper is only a microns thick layer on top of an aluminum center conductor.
Due to the foam, plastic jacket, and other man made materials in the cable, I can't see it being especially cost effective to sell or steal. I'm sure most thieves are pissed when they realize there's hardly any copper in it.
They're even more pissed when they cut into fiber thinking it's copper wire though.... |
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CColon
join:2008-04-20
Philadelphia, PA | I am pretty sure the whole conductor is copper. But, what do I know? I just work with the stuff every single day... |
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MacLeech
The one and only
Premium
join:2001-07-14
SoCal
1 edit | 
A cross section of 500 coax cable I just cut out yesterday... | 
Snapshot of 500 spec sheet from Commscope | P3 500 JCA.pdf
Actual Commscope spec sheet |
said by CColon :I am pretty sure the whole conductor is copper. But, what do I know? I just work with the stuff every single day... Unless you're working with long coax runs to satellite (LNBs need power) or other coax applications that use frequencies below 10 Mhz, having the entire center conductor made of copper is a waste of money...
I'd check your cable again. |
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