Loss of basic video subscribers is a long term worry

jmallory join:2005-11-02 Clawson, MI	reply to MrMoody Re: Loss of basic video subscribers is a long term worry said by MrMoody : Yes. And why are they losing subscribers? Competition from FiOS and UVerse? Puhleeze, they're still a drop in the bucket and DirecTV/Dish have been around as video competitors for ages. I think there are three primary reasons: 1. Semiannual increases far exceeding inflation cause people to get fed up and unplug. 2. ATSC is a such a huge improvement over analog in many places, people who try it on their new widescreen TV wonder if they really need a $60 escalating cable bill for an inferior picture. So unless they need HBO or ESPN, they unplug too. 3. Comcast's legendary poor customer service drives customers away as well. Semi Annual Increases Above Inflation compared to what? Energy? Food? I'd be happy if gas only went up Semi Annually. Plus, it costs Comcast more to do business each day when you have a fleet of trucks to maintain and gas up. I think what you are seeing in the basic subs is the effect of double digit inflation in energy and food taking it's toll on the less affluent / fixed income cable subscriber who only subscribes to basic.
	to forum · permalink · · 2008-05-01 15:38:42 ·
MrMoody But the Grinch ... did Not. join:2002-09-03 Smithfield, NC ·Embarq ·Skype ·magicjack.com	reply to TKJunkMail said by TKJunkMail : Comcast keeps losing basic video subscribers. ... But the continual loss of basic video subscribers is a trend that will eventually cost them down the road as they have fewer and fewer cable connected customers. Yes. And why are they losing subscribers? Competition from FiOS and UVerse? Puhleeze, they're still a drop in the bucket and DirecTV/Dish have been around as video competitors for ages. I think there are three primary reasons: 1. Semiannual increases far exceeding inflation cause people to get fed up and unplug. 2. ATSC is a such a huge improvement over analog in many places, people who try it on their new widescreen TV wonder if they really need a $60 escalating cable bill for an inferior picture. So unless they need HBO or ESPN, they unplug too. 3. Comcast's legendary poor customer service drives customers away as well. -- The public is a poor business manager.
	to forum · permalink · · 2008-05-01 15:14:04 ·
TKJunkMail Enjoy the sun Premium join:2002-03-03 Avalon, NJ ·Sprint Mobile Broa.. ·Comcast	reply to Corydon said by Corydon : It does lead to an interesting question: is it better to have fewer customers with a fatter profit margin or more customers with a leaner one? I'd guess that, from a customer service standpoint at least, the former is the better scenario (assuming everything else is equal—staffing, resources, capex, etc.) It isn't a straightforward answer. There is a price that a service can be sold at that will maximize profit. Part of that calculation is the pure revenue curve( »www.netmba.com/econ/micro/demand/curve/ ) in marketing called the "Demand Curve". But that doesn't take in to account costs and how costs vary based on many factors. Usually costs shrink per unit the more units there are. But in some industries, costs/unit jumps in discrete steps based on the cost of the underlying infrastructure. So the optimal number of customers is a complicated equation. Companies like Comcast have armies of accountants and analysts to identify where the most optimal profit points are. But many, if not most, decisions a businesses' leadership makes is based on stock price(the basic way an exec is compensated) and NOT just on profit. So what may appear to be the best decision - one based purely on increasing profits - is not so straightforward. -- My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
	to forum · permalink · · 2008-05-01 11:24:00 ·
Corydon Cultivant son jardin Premium join:2008-02-18 Denver, CO clubs: ·Comcast	reply to TKJunkMail Thanks for the clarification...it's handy having people who know how to read the financials around It does lead to an interesting question: is it better to have fewer customers with a fatter profit margin or more customers with a leaner one? I'd guess that, from a customer service standpoint at least, the former is the better scenario (assuming everything else is equal—staffing, resources, capex, etc.) -- My opinions are my own. No-one else would want them!
	to forum · permalink · · 2008-05-01 11:09:19 ·
TKJunkMail Enjoy the sun Premium join:2002-03-03 Avalon, NJ ·Sprint Mobile Broa.. ·Comcast	reply to Corydon said by Corydon : I would imagine that Digital, HSI and VoIP are much more profitable areas; Comcast would probably rather have all of their subs on digital tiers and none on analog. As long as those are growing, they'll be fine. Edit: I note that Comcast's share price is up about a dollar on the news, so investors don't seem too worried either. The basic subscriber number includes all the other categories(and not just analog base tier subscribers). So, when you look at Comcast subscribers, if they don't have the basic subscriber, then they can't upsell them to the higher digital tiers, HSI, VOIP, etc. So yes, digital services are more profitable, but the digital services are built on top of the basic subscriber number. Keep losing basic subscribers and the number of upsells to digital services will start to decline as well. -- My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
	to forum · permalink · · 2008-05-01 10:22:34 ·
Corydon Cultivant son jardin Premium join:2008-02-18 Denver, CO clubs: ·Comcast 1 edit	reply to TKJunkMail I doubt competition with FiOS or U-Verse has much to do with the decline in basic subs. These are the people that Comcast is trying to push into the digital tiers, so the channels available to basic subscribers is slowly being whittled away. These are also the people who are likely to be hit harder by the softening economy. Finally, these are the people most sensitive to price increases. I would imagine that Digital, HSI and VoIP are much more profitable areas; Comcast would probably rather have all of their subs on digital tiers and none on analog. As long as those are growing, they'll be fine. Edit: I note that Comcast's share price is up about a dollar on the news, so investors don't seem too worried either.
	to forum · permalink · · 2008-05-01 10:15:42 ·
TKJunkMail Enjoy the sun Premium join:2002-03-03 Avalon, NJ ·Sprint Mobile Broa.. ·Comcast 1 edit	Comcast keeps losing basic video subscribers. But they continue to upsell the remaining subscribers on digital video, high speed internet, & phone access. But the continual loss of basic video subscribers is a trend that will eventually cost them down the road as they have fewer and fewer cable connected customers. Their only growth in subscribers they have been getting is thru acquisitions and not thru selling service to existing homes passed. 1Q08 4Q07 1Q07 Video Homes Passed (000's) 49,902 49,701 48,977 Basic Subscribers (000's) 24,691 24,748 25,005 Basic Penetration 49.5% 49.8% 51.1% Quarterly Net Basic Subscriber Additions (000's) (57) (100) 83 Financial results tables can be found here: »media.corporate-ir.net/media_fil···Q108.htm or in PDF format here: »library.corporate-ir.net/library···08PR.pdf The presentation of results to financial analysts can be seen in this slide show: »library.corporate-ir.net/library···ides.pdf -- My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
	to forum · permalink · · 2008-05-01 09:47:35 ·


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