http://www.dslreports.com/forum/r20456829 en Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:47:30 EDT Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:47:30 EDT http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20456829 ghostpainter : EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 May 2008
Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is possible during June-
July 2008.
La Niña continued to weaken during April 2008, as reflected by changes in sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative SST anomalies in the central
and east-central equatorial Pacific have weakened, while positive SST anomalies are confined to
parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SSTs in the westernmost Niño-4
and Niño-3.4 regions are between 0.6°C and 0.8°C below average, while departures in the
easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions are 0°C and −0.3°C respectively (Fig. 2).
Positive subsurface ocean temperatures at thermocline depth have continued to increase
in central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 3). While this increase has resulted in positive
heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean; Fig 4), a shallow
layer of negative anomalies in the central Pacific continues to persist between the surface and
100m. Despite these changes, SSTs remain sufficiently cool to maintain the persistent
atmospheric anomalies associated with La Niña. Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upperlevel
westerly winds continued across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained
suppressed throughout the central equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection covered the far
western Pacific. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate an ongoing La
Niña.
A majority of the recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region
indicate La Niña will persist through May-June-July 2008 (Fig. 5). Thereafter, there is
considerable spread in the forecasts, with the majority reflecting ENSO-neutral conditions (−0.5
to 0.5 in the Niño-3.4 region) during the second half of the year. However, the spread of the
models spans the possibility of a return to La Niña or even an El Niño by the end of 2008. Based
on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends, a transition from La Niña to
ENSO-neutral conditions is possible during June- July 2008.
Atmospheric conditions related to La Niña often persist for a couple months after SSTs
return to ENSO-neutral conditions. Expected La Niña impacts during May- July 2008 include a
continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over
the central equatorial Pacific.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Atmospheric and Oceanic
Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions.
Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web
site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of
El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 June 2008.
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Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes]]> http://www.dslreports.com/forum/remark,20456829 Fri, 09 May 2008 12:26:45 EDT