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angussf
Premium
join:2002-01-11
Tucson, AZ

[XP Pro] Why XP is doomed

Interesting analysis from Cringely. As always, "follow the money" ...

------- Included Stuff Follows -------
I, Cringely . The Pulpit . Wimpy | PBS
...

Several readers are concerned about Microsoft's decision to stop
selling Windows XP and -- most importantly -- end security updates for
the venerable operating system. This has everything to do with
business and nothing at all to do with technology. Wearing my business
reporter's fedora, then, I'll point you back a week or so to
Microsoft's most recent earnings announcement, which disappointed Wall
Street. This is significant because it is hard to find a Wall Street
analyst who remembers the last time Microsoft's earnings were
disappointing. It simply doesn't happen. That's because Microsoft has
a myriad of tools for adjusting the numbers to look just right.

Because Microsoft has so many tools for fine-tuning its financials
(primarily the management of expenses, by the way -- Microsoft makes
so much money that it tunes the numbers by throwing cash away), the
fact that this last set of numbers disappointed suggests to me that
they, too, could have been avoided. Microsoft probably decided to
deliberately take an earnings hit precisely so they could play the "we
have to get the earnings up" card to justify the final death of XP.

Microsoft has been under huge pressure from its hardware OEMs to dump
XP, thus forcing millions of customers who have been avoiding Vista
and Vista's inevitable hardware upgrade to finally buy new computers.
Dumping XP will help Dell and HP AND Microsoft, big-time. It won't do
anything for you or me, though, since Vista still sucks, but we
obviously don't matter.

Those customers who think they'll keep XP going on their own will
probably be out of luck, too. With Microsoft abandoning security
upgrades, hackers will eat holes in the old OS practically overnight.
And if one or more of the security companies like Symantec or McAfee
think they can make a business out of defending XP, I simply doubt
that customers will pay.
--------- Included Stuff Ends ---------
Other topics also discussed in his column here:
»www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008···880.html


PeteC2
Ballad Of A Thin Man
Premium,MVM
join:2002-01-20
Bristol, CT
clubs:
·AT&T Yahoo

***WARNING***WARNING***Mild sarcasm ahead***

Holy Moly! Breaking news! Microsoft, the Great Satan, is going to stop providing updates to MS-DOS, Windows 3.1, and (gulp!) even the recent hit, Windows 95!!! Theorists believe that MS is trying to wean users away from these massively popular OS's!

Uh...more that a little bit silly, eh? This is just chock full of classics "Microsoft makes
so much money that it tunes the numbers by throwing cash away"
Yep, I thought that was Bill that I saw tossing bags 'o cash out of the trunk of his limo, off the bridge and into the river...

Oh brother...

Look some day...maybe a little sooner, maybe a little later, sales, and support for XP will end. I hope not too soon, but after all, life...and technology, do move on...and we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Anybody getting any driver updates for their Daisy-Wheel printers??? Must be a con-spear-acy then! Giddyap!
--
...something is happening here but you don't know what it is...do you, Mr. Jones?


Doctor Olds
I Need A Remedy For What's Ailing Me.
Premium,VIP
join:2001-04-19
1970 442 W30
clubs:

reply to angussf
Cringely is out of touch with reality and not too bright. I think of his writing as filler for poor old PBS who is stuck with the contract.
--
What’s the point of owning a supercar if you can’t scare yourself stupid from time to time?


Vistaluvr2

@rr.com

reply to angussf
Yea yea yea yea, we all hear that often enough.

Microsoft has been under huge pressure from its hardware OEMs to dump
XP, thus forcing millions of customers who have been avoiding Vista
and Vista's inevitable hardware upgrade to finally buy new computers.

Dumping XP will help Dell and HP AND Microsoft, big-time. It won't do
anything for you or me, though, since Vista still sucks, but we
obviously don't matter.
The bold is a lie - more like thousands.


PeteC2
Ballad Of A Thin Man
Premium,MVM
join:2002-01-20
Bristol, CT
clubs:
·AT&T Yahoo

said by Vistaluvr2 :

Yea yea yea yea, we all hear that often enough.

Microsoft has been under huge pressure from its hardware OEMs to dump
XP, thus forcing millions of customers who have been avoiding Vista
and Vista's inevitable hardware upgrade to finally buy new computers.

Dumping XP will help Dell and HP AND Microsoft, big-time. It won't do
anything for you or me, though, since Vista still sucks, but we
obviously don't matter.
The bold is a lie - more like thousands.
Well, in a way there is a grain of truth there, but the time-line is out of order!

Vista hardly was the driving force behind Intel and AMD developing multi-core processors! As in all other technologically based businesses, he who gets a more advanced product out to market, generally becomes the survivor/winner. Same holds true for Nvidia, versus AT (AMD), versus Intel (in the integrated graphics battle).

The funny thing is, you never hear anyone complain that Intel/AMD are trying to "force" new CPUs on the public...after all, can you run out and buy a new Duron processor? (aside of off Ebay, etc.) How about any spiffy new P-II motherboards...any new drivers being developed for them?

Of course, everyone acts like "Well, that's silly, who wants to buy old technology?", and yet, that is not far off of what we see here.

I do understand, and agree, that an OS such as XP, should get a farily long period of support...but after all, it has already enjoyed quite a lifespan amongst OS's...

Of course MS wants to sell Vista, and naturally, there comes a point in time where continuing support for different generations of the same product become less cost-effective. I can see the pros and cons argument for how long support should, or should not be provided, but it is this "MS is up to no good" attitude that to me just seems silly and sophomoric.
--
...something is happening here but you don't know what it is...do you, Mr. Jones?

mrtomato

join:2008-05-09
Scappoose, OR

reply to Vistaluvr2
Do you want to save XP? sign the petition, so far over 180,000 have. If enough people protest, maybe microsoft will listen. To find the petition, search "save windows XP". Please get your friends to sign on. Its possible to save XP!
--
Tomatoes like People can be red, black, yellow, green, white or striped, but they are all just Tomatoes or People to me.


La Luna
Surviving Ashraful
Premium
join:2001-07-12
Warwick, NY
clubs:
Where's the petition to bring W98 back? I loved W98. Why doesn't MS still support W98?

XP will have run it's course by the time it's done. Time to move on folks.


Santa Fe
To love is to forgive.
Premium,ExMod 2002-7
join:2000-08-22
Freight Yard
clubs:
·Mediacom

said by La Luna See Profile :

Where's the petition to bring W98 back? I loved W98. Why doesn't MS still support W98?

XP will have run it's course by the time it's done. Time to move on folks.
I've still got 3.1 around here somewhere, all 11 disks.

Maybe next time I have to reinstall XP on my 3 GHz P4, I'll try installing it for fun!
--
I'm Forever Folding For Team Helix
Autism Speaks, Please Listen!

dave
Premium,MVM
join:2000-05-04
not in ohio
·Verizon Online DSL

reply to angussf
Doesn't this miss the obvious answer as to why Microsoft would stop selling XP now that Vista's out?

"Because they always do that".

No Windows 2000 once XP (desktops) or 2003 (servers) was mainstream

No NT4 once Windows 2000 was mainstream.

No NT 3.51 once NT 4 was mainstream.

Etc.

And, naturally that's a business decision. Supporting two versions of the OS costs more than supporting one version of the OS.


Davebo_

join:2002-11-19
Canada

reply to La Luna
said by La Luna See Profile :

Where's the petition to bring W98 back? I loved W98. Why doesn't MS still support W98?

XP will have run it's course by the time it's done. Time to move on folks.
Agreed - even if moving on moves us past MS, and toward Linux etc. Because Vista is a hack....

ChiTang
Premium,MVM
join:2002-08-23
Alhambra, CA

reply to angussf
I can careless about how people choose an OS. May be, the new OS is not mature, too different, previous OS is still good enough, can'r afford a new OS etc...

Users have their rights to render opinions in anything they like but to expect MS to continue to support is a bit of a stretch.

How about MS gives away their OS for free and charges for updates and hotfixes?
--
I used to be indecisive, now I am not sure.


BinaryXtreme

join:2004-04-20
Sparks, NV
reply to angussf
Windows ME ftw! Wait, uhm.


dellsweig
Extreme Aerobatics
Premium,MVM
join:2003-12-10
Campbell Hall, NY
·Time Warner VOIP


edit:
May 10th, @03:17PM

reply to La Luna
said by La Luna See Profile :

Where's the petition to bring W98 back? I loved W98. Why doesn't MS still support W98?

XP will have run it's course by the time it's done. Time to move on folks.
La Luna - I just found a copy of W98 in my junk box - do you need it

Wait - I have 95 here too, and wait a minute - I have floppies (remember those) with QDOS on it of you really want - wait - computers dont come with floppies anymore - oh well - I guess we can send those to school with my kids for show and tell..

BTW: I really like Vista - runs great, stable, fast - and if I really need XP - I just pop open an XP VM.....


me2000
Obama-Biden 2008

join:2003-06-23
Normal, IL
·AT&T Midwest

reply to mrtomato
said by mrtomato See Profile :

Do you want to save XP? sign the petition, so far over 180,000 have. If enough people protest, maybe microsoft will listen. To find the petition, search "save windows XP". Please get your friends to sign on. Its possible to save XP!
180,000 people out of the millions upon millions that use Windows?

That's like a speck of dust.


neonhomer
Honoray Mythbuster
Premium
join:2004-01-27
Edgewater, FL
·Earthlink Cable Mo..

reply to PeteC2
said by PeteC2 See Profile :

***WARNING***WARNING***Mild sarcasm ahead***

Holy Moly! Breaking news! Microsoft, the Great Satan, is going to stop providing updates to MS-DOS, Windows 3.1, and (gulp!) even the recent hit, Windows 95!!! Theorists believe that MS is trying to wean users away from these massively popular OS's!
Does this mean I can't get that WGA update for Windows 1.0 anymore?

I know my company relies on XP, because it is a lot easier to use compared to Vista. (I let my boss use my laptop w/ Vista on it, and he swore he would never allow Vista in the company!) Oh well, I guess we just have to live with it.


Wolfie00
Premium
join:2005-03-12

reply to angussf
I think the point of the "save XP" movement is that this is a unique situation that has never occurred before, despite the claims that this is just another OS version and it's all the usual whining about change and increased hardware requirements.

No it isn't. XP's longevity and user loyalty arise from the fact that it was a truly revolutionary change in the consumer OS space for those still suffering with Windows 9x. The value that it brought to the consumer desktop was stupendous; it's an incredibly stable, highly functional platform with awesome backward compatiblity as well. It's a friggin' miracle, is what it is!! Vista is the exact opposite -- with most of its intended features stripped away one by one in order to get something out the door, what Microsoft released was basically a buggy new UI with significant backward compatibility issues with apps and drivers. I know I'm oversimplifying -- so sue me! But the point is, as I keep saying, there is no compelling reason to upgrade to Vista in terms of any fundamental functionality, security, or usability. I can understand how much folks love their XP and how reluctant they are to take on a vast set of "upgrade" headaches for no apparent reason, because I'm one of them.
--
"Until he extends his circle of compassion to include all living things, man will not himself find peace" -- Dr. Albert Schweitzer
"A dog is like a child who never grows old ... always there to love and be loved" -- Aaron Katcher

sirghost
citywide

join:2005-07-23
Phoenix, AZ
It is real simple then, DON'T upgrade.


me2000
Obama-Biden 2008

join:2003-06-23
Normal, IL
reply to Wolfie00
Vista is MORE stable and MORE secure.

ChiTang
Premium,MVM
join:2002-08-23
Alhambra, CA

said by me2000 See Profile :

Vista is MORE stable and MORE secure.
Is it a faith or you have data/benchmark to support that statement?
--
I used to be indecisive, now I am not sure.


Wolfie00
Premium
join:2005-03-12


edit:
May 10th, @06:54PM

reply to sirghost
said by sirghost See Profile :

It is real simple then, DON'T upgrade.
Not so simple. To begin with, from the OP: "Those customers who think they'll keep XP going on their own will probably be out of luck, too. With Microsoft abandoning security upgrades, hackers will eat holes in the old OS practically overnight." I'm not sure I believe it's quite that bad, but the writer does have a point.

Not to mention stuff that will simply stop working; even today, Office 2003 IIRC is the only version of Office other than 2007 that is even partially endorsed by Microsoft for Vista, and while there is a nice patch for compatibility with the 2007 docx format, that kind of support will cease. As Office moves on, no doubt it will no longer be able to run on XP, and it wouldn't surprise me if that limitation was deliberately engineered.

said by me2000 See Profile :

Vista is MORE stable and MORE secure.
I've been running XP since the Whistler betas, and currently have six computers on it -- not one has ever crashed because of XP stability issues. In fact, aside from a hardware problem I had on one of them, now resolved, XP has simply never crashed, period. I don't know how you get "more stable" than that!!

As for security, with appropriate safeguards and proper management -- which are always a prerequisite -- I have no security issues with XP either. And Vista itself is far from secure -- despite obnoxious and invasive baggage like the built-in DRM stuff:
»www.theregister.co.uk/2008/05/09···_survey/

I don't really have any advice for Microsoft which has so totally bungled the Vista release, except to say that these are extraordinary circumstances and there would be a great deal of customer goodwill created if XP was supported for a good while yet. The release of SP3 was a good step in the right direction, although the refusal to release any meaningful functional upgrades like in SP2, lest it compete with Vista, was just blatantly obvious.
--
"Until he extends his circle of compassion to include all living things, man will not himself find peace" -- Dr. Albert Schweitzer
"A dog is like a child who never grows old ... always there to love and be loved" -- Aaron Katcher
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