ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| Severe Weather Forecast Discussion May 22
411 PM EDT Wed. May 21, 2008
An upper low over the Intermountain West is forecast to intensify tonight as a mid-level jet rounds the base of an upper trough. The jet will then flow into the central Plains Thursday afternoon resulting in convection increasing vertical shear and lift. Widespread severe threat is forecast across the central and southern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.
Cells are forecast to redevelop along a dryline overnight along the western edge of the jet. A few cells will likely produce large hail.
A broad low-level jet is forecast to be in place from eastern Texas into the Ozark and lower Mississippi Valley due to the upper low in the West. Low-level moisture will advect moisture with dew points in the 70s. This will result in strong instability although large scale ascent will be weak. Scattered cells will be possible across east Texas into Louisiana as weak energy tracks across the region. Vertical shear is forecast to be strong enough for a few severe cells.
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