| reply to Rick
Re: The problem facing verizon is this.. Even if they are cannibalizing their own DSL subs, the maintenance cost savings on the network is huge. Verizon can't get rid of the copper fast enough (ie Fairpoint deal). If FiOS wasn't paying itself off, then they would have stopped building FiOS a long time ago. Right now, its still full speed ahead. Also, from what I understand, the 2nd quarter usually has the lowest take rate of the year. With NYC FiOS numbers being added this next quarter I think they will be back to 250K adds a quarter or more for the next 2 or 3 quarters. |
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DolganPremium
join:2005-10-01
Sun Prairie, WI Reviews:
 ·Charter
1 edit | quote:
If FiOS wasn't paying itself off, then they would have stopped building FiOS a long time ago.
FIOS is still not showing any profits, and is being paid for by the other divisions within Verizon. FIOS is not projected to start bringing in profit{ROI} untill sometime in 2010. |
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FIOS is still not showing any profits, and is being paid for by the other divisions within Verizon. FIOS is not projected to start bringing in profit{ROI} untill sometime in 2010.
Yeah, its called a capital investment, and more than likely its being paid for with increased debt, not from other divisions. The fact that they started building FiOS in like 2003 and its already going to start showing profits in 2010... on a $23B investment? That's pretty damn good... Verizon continues to proclaim that they are ahead of all their projections with FiOS, including ARPU and penetration rate. Once they start making a profit on the fiber, the margins are a hell of a lot higher too, considering lower maintenance costs. |
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DolganPremium
join:2005-10-01
Sun Prairie, WI Reviews:
·Charter
1 edit | It is being paid for by budget cuts from every other divison of Verizon Telecomm, in addition to assuming a higher debt load. The budget cuts are to keep the stock price artificially high--during this time of expenditure the stock price should have remained stagnant/fell as the expenditure eats into actual profits. The 2010 was projected at a time when the economy was not faltering as well, so it may take longer to see the actual ROI.
Lower maintainence costs for FIOS are pure speculation at this this point. The only thing that is known is that fiber will not corrode like copper lines exposed to moisture. Lets see what happens when the fiber cable cases start cracking and moisture, dust, and etc get into the cables. It will also be interseting to see the repair times/cost when the Tampa/St Pete area gets hit by a hurricane and multiple aerials need to be replaced. Same can be said for mudslides, fires, earthquakes in the CA cities that FIOS is deployed in. You will have the same amount of Cable/drop cuts to deal with as we currently have on copper lines as well. We will have to see what happens over the next several years to see if the lower maintainence costs are a reality or just a fart in the wind. |
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We will have to see what happens over the next several years to see if the lower maintainence costs are a reality or just a fart in the wind.
My guess is they have a pretty good idea of what it will take to maintain the fiber as their backhaul networks have been fiber for quite some time. Furthermore, look at how quickly they are losing subscribers on the copper side of the business... without FiOS, where the hell would Verizon be right now? Like they always say... You gotta spend money to make money... They've proven that theory on the wireless side and now that is translating to the wireline side with the introduction of FiOS. AT&T and Qwest should be ashamed of their wireline networks... |
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DolganPremium
join:2005-10-01
Sun Prairie, WI Reviews:
·Charter
| I agree that FTP is the way to go. You can not compare maintainence of Backhaul Cables to the Main Cables that run from the CO to F1 cables, to F2 cables, and then to drops. Backhauls are run thru remote areas and/or along our highway system--that protects them from "Joe 6-pack" who digs in his yard w/o locating lines and cuts the F1 feeding his neighborhood. The system of cables that run to the endusers have many more access points than backhauls, which leads to more potential problems. Moreover, the main/feeder cables run thru more congested areas and are more susceptible to damage from traffic accidents, contractor/construction cuts, and etc. Verizon may believe they will have the same low maintainence as backhauls, but as stated earlier it is not proven as of yet. |
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join:2005-12-31
Raleigh, NC | reply to Dolgan
said by Dolgan:Lower maintainence costs for FIOS are pure speculation at this this point. The only thing that is known is that fiber will not corrode like copper lines exposed to moisture. They should get OPex savings on the equipment where they've eliminated electronics too, like the splitter equipment. |
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join:2005-12-31
Raleigh, NC | reply to Dolgan
said by Dolgan:FIOS is not projected to start bringing in profit{ROI} untill sometime in 2010. By ROI, do you mean EBITDA positive? They were forecasting EBITDA positive by 4Q08.
Or do you mean break even. That will be when the accumulated EBITDA (after taxes) pays off on the CAPex. Given that they're just reaching EBITDA positive end of this year, 2010 will be pretty aggressive for break even. |
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DolganPremium
join:2005-10-01
Sun Prairie, WI Reviews:
·Charter
| We have been told that FIOS will generate positive cashflow sometime in 2010. That was based upon an expectation of a take rate of 33%+{that at least 1/3 of of people in FIOS capable areas actually subscribe to the service--unsure how it breaks down with the amount of services taken --ie FIOS triple play vs internet/phone vs internet only --which would affect total Return on Investment}. I agree it is an optimistic outlook with the current take rates and the great unknown of how soon the economy will recover from its current malaise/recession. The executives will keep spinning as much positive vibe as possible to keep the shareholders happy, but only the test of time will show what the outcome will be. |
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join:2005-12-31
Raleigh, NC | said by Dolgan:We have been told that FIOS will generate positive cashflow sometime in 2010. Positive cash flow by 2010 probably makes sense. All they need to do is keep their CAPex down so that it is exceeded by EBITDA (less taxes).
Once they start making positive cash flow, then they can start "paying off" the early years when they were negative cash flow, and when they reach that, that's when they can declare payback. That'll be a fair period past 2010. The rest after that is ROI. |
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