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Dolgan
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join:2005-10-01
Sun Prairie, WI
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reply to disc

Re: The problem facing verizon is this..

We have been told that FIOS will generate positive cashflow sometime in 2010. That was based upon an expectation of a take rate of 33%+{that at least 1/3 of of people in FIOS capable areas actually subscribe to the service--unsure how it breaks down with the amount of services taken --ie FIOS triple play vs internet/phone vs internet only --which would affect total Return on Investment}. I agree it is an optimistic outlook with the current take rates and the great unknown of how soon the economy will recover from its current malaise/recession. The executives will keep spinning as much positive vibe as possible to keep the shareholders happy, but only the test of time will show what the outcome will be.

disc

join:2005-12-31
Raleigh, NC

said by Dolgan:

We have been told that FIOS will generate positive cashflow sometime in 2010.
Positive cash flow by 2010 probably makes sense. All they need to do is keep their CAPex down so that it is exceeded by EBITDA (less taxes).

Once they start making positive cash flow, then they can start "paying off" the early years when they were negative cash flow, and when they reach that, that's when they can declare payback. That'll be a fair period past 2010. The rest after that is ROI.

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