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Dogfather
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2 edits

Zero justification for it

And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass.

U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others.
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Nightfall
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Re: Zero justification for it

said by Dogfather See Profile :

And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass.

U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others.
Link? Source?

I haven't seen a single bit of data from ISPs showing their capacity at the node or national level and what they have available. Would be helpful to see that data since you apparently have seen it.

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4 edits

Re: Zero justification for it

»Bell Canada Offers 'Proof' Throttling Was Necessary

Dave Burstein also has some interesting comments regarding Verizon and AT&T. While AT&T is claiming a need for caps, behind the scenes AT&T says they have no capacity crunch as traffic shifts from P2P to video. »www.interesting-people.org/archi···265.html
said by Dave Burstein :
Verizon, AT&T, and Free.fr are strongly on the record they do not have significant congestion problems.
said by Dave Burstein :
AT&T has sensible plans to handle the load without disruption. They are already moving from 10 gig to 40 gig in the core, and planning a transition to 100 gig in a few years. The current projections are they can do these upgrades without raising capex, bringing per bit costs down along a Moore's Law curve and keeping bandwidth costs per user essentially unchanged. Most of the optical vendors believe they can meet those goals, although some worry that the pace of innovation may slow down as the optical components industry is struggling.
That's quite different from AT&Ts call for metered billing this Fall. I'm not that familiar with Dave Burstein but he appears to be well accepted in the 'community'. He also comments on Bell Canada as well.

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said by Nightfall See Profile :

said by Dogfather See Profile :

And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass.

U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others.
Link? Source?

I haven't seen a single bit of data from ISPs showing their capacity at the node or national level and what they have available. Would be helpful to see that data since you apparently have seen it.
What he is referring to is the congestion that Bell Canada claimed left them no other choice but to enable throttling.

When they posted the numbers, they were simply laughable.

Nightfall
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1 edit

Re: Zero justification for it

said by Matt See Profile :

said by Nightfall See Profile :

said by Dogfather See Profile :

And when the ISPs crying about capacity are forced to turn over their data, like Bell Canada, turns out they're lying out their ass.

U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others.
Link? Source?

I haven't seen a single bit of data from ISPs showing their capacity at the node or national level and what they have available. Would be helpful to see that data since you apparently have seen it.
What he is referring to is the congestion that Bell Canada claimed left them no other choice but to enable throttling.

When they posted the numbers, they were simply laughable.
Thanks!

What I would like to see is a breakdown of all the major ISPs done by a 3rd party showing this kind of data. In the end though, the decision to cap is up to the provider. The consumer doesn't have a say in it.

EDIT:
The article you posted had to do with P2P Throttling. While the information is useful, what I would like to see is even a further breakdown from each node. Total amount of nodes saturated really doesn't help much. Ah well.

Dogfather
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Re: Zero justification for it

That data would be a closely guarded secret because like Bell Canada, their data won't support their doom and gloom assertions.

Nightfall
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Re: Zero justification for it

said by Dogfather See Profile :

That data would be a closely guarded secret because like Bell Canada, their data won't support their doom and gloom assertions.
Correct.

Which is why making it public is the best thing to do. The ISPs are going to sneak this in. The majority of the people on this site will be affected by low caps.

Dogfather
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Re: Zero justification for it

Short of a Mission: Impossible action, there will be no getting their data. It would take a job-losing leak of industry shattering proportions.

Nightfall
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Re: Zero justification for it

said by Dogfather See Profile :

Short of a Mission: Impossible action, there will be no getting their data. It would take a job-losing leak of industry shattering proportions.
Oh, this data does exist. I have a friend who is a network engineer for Comcast cable. He has brought me some very interesting information when it comes to network congestion. They have detailed information on each node and each account. Here in the city of Grand Rapids, the top 3% of their customers use more bandwidth than the bottom 97% combined. They have maps of the nodes and what accounts are using the most and which accounts are running their connections full force. I know that all ISPs have this data at their fingertips.
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1 edit

Re: Zero justification for it

The very same is said here in the Twin Cities.. That statement about the top 3% using about the same, or more, than the rest of the 97% is echoed around in different systems..

If people actually saw these numbers in person, at the actual computer screen showing the data, people would flip and often not believe it.

Personally, I have no issue with caps, but would like to see them higher.. Comcast wants to do a 250gb cap, rather, I think 500gb is more reasonable, maybe a little higher. Further, passing the cap doesn't mean charges or cut off, personally, I'd rather see the connection slowed to that of a 1.5/256 line. If people want to run wide open connections for everyone else to take files from them.. fine. But when their line becomes almost unusable to the account user him/herself, maybe they'll think twice about opening up their connections to everyone and keep their bandwidth to themselves.

Further, as networks continue to be upgraded, the caps should also reflect reality.
jaminus

join:2004-10-14
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Re: Zero justification for it

Why slow down high users, when you can just make them pay more?

I'd be fine with a base price of $50 per month up to 200GB, then $0.25 GB at normal speed after that -OR- you get slowed down to the lowest priority during peak hours where congestion is an issue.

Make the hogs (like myself) pay and they'll either cut back, or at least they'll bear the burden of the added strain they induce on the last-mile.
fiberguy
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Re: Zero justification for it

said by jaminus See Profile :

Why slow down high users, when you can just make them pay more?
In the DSL model I'd agree with you.. make them pay more. Still, I think it should be close to the Fair and Flexible model that Sprint once had with cell phone use. If you go over, they just upgrade you to the next plan for that month.

As for cable, it's a little different. The lines were built for residential use.. they weren't designed for heavy users. In fact, some cities/systems won't let residential homes sign up for business accounts just because of the implied heavy use in that area. The problem is that you have to cut the heavy users back to some degree, not necessarily allow an overage fee, because in a node model, and say you luck out and have a lot of heavy users in one area, they will slow the node down for everyone. You can split the node, but in some areas that's either a costly move OR not worth it if there is a high churn rate in the area.

In some nodes where there are higher rental homes/apts, you split the node and the people move to another node, that split was for nothing. And, in lack on contracts, you never know if the node split would be necessary for too long.

One thing that COULD work is a contract term on heavy users too. If a node split has to be done, at least those causing high use would be held to that contract, no ETF, and paid to term, for the trade of node splitting.

Yes, I realize that the last option is not user friendly, but neither is capital expense for a few people either. Some operators are actually okay with seeing a few problematic customers become someone else's problem.

I still, also, say that we're in a turning point in the history of the internet where the service and the content are growing at a fast paced and a bit off balance.. I think all of this issue of heavy use will go away in the next 8 years.

Dryvlyne
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All the more reason for those top 3% users to be migrated to a business tier or risk being disconnected. There is no way in hell any ISP can justify usage-based billing to make it "fair" to everyone who uses the Internet. Quite the contrary, it would be quite UNfair for the vast majority of users to have to pay for the abuse of such a small minority. Furthermore, as you've noted, ISP's have the means to identify specific users that are placing such extreme demands on their network.

The idea that it would somehow be 'fair' for the ISPs to just throw everyone into a new pricing model because of the actions of a small minority is simply ridiculous!

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Re: Zero justification for it

Indeed. If as the comcast network engineer showed, they know down to the node and account who is running flat-out, they should be dealing with those customers rather than using them as justification to impact everyone.
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RARPSL

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said by Nightfall See Profile :

Here in the city of Grand Rapids, the top 3% of their customers use more bandwidth than the bottom 97% combined.
So. That is a FUD claim unless you ALSO back it up with the amount the percentage of total available bandwidth that is actually being used. If the total usage is 95% of the available bandwidth the fact that those 3% are using more of the 95% than the other 97% of the users is not important. Only if the usage is 100% of capacity does the split possibly become an issue.

Nightfall
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Re: Zero justification for it

said by RARPSL See Profile :

said by Nightfall See Profile :

Here in the city of Grand Rapids, the top 3% of their customers use more bandwidth than the bottom 97% combined.
So. That is a FUD claim unless you ALSO back it up with the amount the percentage of total available bandwidth that is actually being used. If the total usage is 95% of the available bandwidth the fact that those 3% are using more of the 95% than the other 97% of the users is not important. Only if the usage is 100% of capacity does the split possibly become an issue.
I never made a claim that Comcast bandwidth in my area was an issue. So what FUD claim did I make?

Secondly, you don't wait until you are using 95% of the bandwidth in an area before you add more. A well managed network has plenty in reserve, like about 20%, in case something bad happens. They also have multiple points of entry. Thats besides the point though...

My main point in my post, in case you missed it, was that the total amount of bandwidth used per account and per node, and how much is available is there. The ISPs have been keeping track of this info for years.

Anon0

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Re: Zero justification for it

said by Nightfall See Profile :

My main point in my post, in case you missed it, was that the total amount of bandwidth used per account and per node, and how much is available is there. The ISPs have been keeping track of this info for years.


But that doesn't really matter. ISPs are making the claim that they have to enforce bandwidth caps on users or their system will be unable to handle the extra load due to demands for things like streaming video. Who cares how much the individual users are using? What matters is how much bandwidth there's still available for everyone. Even if 3% of users are using more bandwidth than everyone else, if there's still more than enough bandwidth for all users then ISPs cannot say their infrastructure will be overloaded. It's twisting the statistics to make them say what you want them to.

KrK
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That's going to change though.

More and more "regular users" are going to be moving up the ranks when they start ACTUALLY using their connections for services appearing in infancy on the Net now.

The problem is that ISP's have enjoyed and telecom providers have exploited for profit for years the people who buy high speed lines and then use very little. (Hell even I fall into this class.)

So now they are scared not so much for network capacity but for profits as they realize that soon the gravy train will be ending and regular Joe Sixpack connections will be starting to use their connections for actual useful services and actually want to use more then 5% of the bandwidth they pay for....
--
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Nightfall
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Re: Zero justification for it

said by KrK See Profile :

That's going to change though.

More and more "regular users" are going to be moving up the ranks when they start ACTUALLY using their connections for services appearing in infancy on the Net now.

The problem is that ISP's have enjoyed and telecom providers have exploited for profit for years the people who buy high speed lines and then use very little. (Hell even I fall into this class.)

So now they are scared not so much for network capacity but for profits as they realize that soon the gravy train will be ending and regular Joe Sixpack connections will be starting to use their connections for actual useful services and actually want to use more then 5% of the bandwidth they pay for....
I have to agree with you. The ISPs profits are going to sink even further when this day comes. Once again though, I am not arguing this point at all. Merely that the data these ISPs are keeping on their customers and the "congestion" on their network is well documented and kept track of.

en102
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Is there a reason WHY they are attempting to sell higher data rates than they can support ?
Eg. If they can only support 6Mbps, why attempt to sell 20Mbps and put a cap on it ?
If its raw usage (i.e. 24x7x20Mbps) then there's a general usage issue.
If the average user on a 6Mbps line consumes 500GB of data / month, there should be no issue.
Similarly, I'd like to see the capacity issues (legit data here) where there's a capacity issue.
I've been on 3Mbps DSL for almost 5 years, and probably transfer over 200GB/month, and I haven't heard any complaints from DSL-Extreme.
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Re: Zero justification for it

said by en102 See Profile :

Is there a reason WHY they are attempting to sell higher data rates than they can support ?
Eg. If they can only support 6Mbps, why attempt to sell 20Mbps and put a cap on it ?
Yes. It is called marketing. And it is used to appeal to the average customer who are morons in most cases. Marketing isn't about logic and never has been. It is all about convincing people that they need something they really don't need.
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1 edit

Re: Zero justification for it

You know I meant that with a shot of sarcasm.
Consumers are sheep.
Similarly, when it comes to elections and politics, voters are sheep as well, driven more by hype, nitpicking, smear campaigns and PR spin, than real details.
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jaminus

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If I'm interpreting what you're saying correctly, then I think you have it wrong.

Consider your average broadband user's consumption habits. They download large files infrequently, and the main thing they do is load websites, download songs, and the like.

Why would the typical user want a relatively narrow pipe they could saturate, when most people simply aren't downloading constantly?

Overselling hasn't emerged because consumers are stupid. It has succeeded as a business model because it makes sense. Even as a relatively high bandwidth user, I prefer a fast 16mb with monthly usage caps to a slower, uncapped connection. I want to be able to download 7 Gigs in an hour, and I don't have a problem if my ISP oversells its nodes to a point.

Residential broadband providers don't ever claim you can use your connection all the time. BroadbandReports.com users may want an uncapped pipe, but it'd mean much higher prices, which is unacceptable to the typical broadband user.

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It's a pure money grab by the ISP's.

I'm not even a P2P User, but running a Slingbox, Having Tivos that pull from amazon downloads, Watching You-Tube, Purchasing from I-Tunes, Music Streams and such, watching olympics online, Vonage, Off-Site File Backup, a VPN connection into my parent's business, and I'm just about to get the Netflix Roku box I'm probably going to be over my limit. Not including the Roku box, I was at 100GB downloaded last month.
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EPS

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Considering the degree to which DOCSIS 1.1 networks are oversubscribed, I can believe that cable companies have some congestion issues, but those should be alleviated by DOCSIS 3 at least in part. However, the telcos involved (Bell Canada, at&t) are almost certainly just trying to make a few more bucks by jumping on the bandwagon, and ranting about inevitability in hopes that eventually enough people will believe them.

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4 edits

Re: Zero justification for it

Absolutely. I do agree that in some limited cable systems there are saturated channels in some neighborhoods, especially in the upstream but looking at AT&T's data, BT usage is down and that will relieve pressure on upstream channel capacity. That combined with SDV and ditching analog (allowing more channels to be dedicated to HSI), along with DOCSIS 3 to provide the desired increase in throughput to the end user, these localized problems can be fixed. This issue of channel saturation certainly doesn't warrant a blanket nationwide capping policy of 5GB like TWC has suggested with 1000% markups on overages and/or FAPping like Comcast is planning. And it certainly doesn't apply to AT&T who has no such localized problems.

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said by EPS See Profile :

I can believe that cable companies have some congestion issues, but those should be alleviated by DOCSIS 3 at least in part.
Eventually DOCSIS 3 might solve this problem, but they need to replace a good percentage of the xx million DOCSIS 1.1/2.0 cable modems out there before seeing significant improvement on the shared plant.

Dogfather
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Re: Zero justification for it

But since not all cable systems are seeing these localized upstream channel saturation they can pick and choose the "worst" case cable systems to upgrade.

espaeth
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said by Dogfather See Profile :

U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others.
If you say this enough times, maybe one time it will really be true.

On demand video isn't a saturated market; you can still acquire a vast many new customers without taking the existing customers of other companies. Microsoft isn't stealing VoD customers from Sony, because XBox owners will get video from Microsoft and PS3 owners will get video from Sony. The thing that is hampering most Internet video sources (besides scalability issues) is the fact that you need a special hardware device that locks you in to only content from a single upstream provider. I buy a Roku, I can view Netflix, but not iTunes. I buy AppleTV I can watch shows from iTunes, but not Netflix.

This is about bigger things than video competition.

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4 edits

Re: Zero justification for it

said by espaeth See Profile :

said by Dogfather See Profile :

U.S. metered billing and caps has nothing to do about capacity and everything about protecting their PPV VOD revenues from competitors like Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon and others.
If you say this enough times, maybe one time it will really be true.

On demand video isn't a saturated market; you can still acquire a vast many new customers without taking the existing customers of other companies. Microsoft isn't stealing VoD customers from Sony, because XBox owners will get video from Microsoft and PS3 owners will get video from Sony. The thing that is hampering most Internet video sources (besides scalability issues) is the fact that you need a special hardware device that locks you in to only content from a single upstream provider. I buy a Roku, I can view Netflix, but not iTunes. I buy AppleTV I can watch shows from iTunes, but not Netflix.

This is about bigger things than video competition.
You obviously don't understand the impact from an MSO perspective. The MSOs don't give a crap if Microsoft is competing with Sony for VOD PPV customers. They DO care that Microsoft is competing with the MSOs.

People don't rent the same PPV VOD program twice and while Microsoft may not get PPV viewers from Sony and Sony may not get PPV viewers from Microsoft, both Sony and Microsoft get their PPV viewers from the MSOs.

The MSOs aren't going to stand by and wait for your "killer do all box" to be released to stop it. They're going to stop it now with caps and traffic shaping. There are already millions and millions of installed set top boxes like TiVo Series 2, XBOX 360 and PS3s (with most offering the same rental content) to make the MSOs concerned. IOW, I don't need a do all box to rent a particular movie title. Any of these providers will offer it. It's like saying that the MSOs would only be threatened by a box that plays VHS and Beta or DVD and Blu-Ray. No, so long as the title is universally available which most new releases are, every installed box competes with their PPV business.

As far as scalability, again you're wrong. Of all services, PPV VOD is one of the few that is infinitely scalable because every xfer funds itself.
--
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and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger." -Hermann Goering 4/18/46

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Re: Zero justification for it

If they're so anxious about competition for revenue, then why aren't they going after Internet VoIP competition which strikes at one of their most lucrative services right now?

You're so focused on making the video scenario stick that you're missing the big picture. The broadband providers arrived at a price for their service offering based on an estimated amount of usage. This is the same strategy that All-you-can-eat restaurants use to price the buffet, and insurance companies use to calculate what the cost should be an a $300,000 auto policy. In all cases they have statistical data to show that every person don't max out 100% of the benefit, so they calculate down to realistic expectancies.

There are now applications that would drive up average utilization beyond what the broadband service offering price model was based on. That is the simple answer to why ISPs are reinvestigating their pricing strategy.

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1 edit

Re: Zero justification for it

Internet VoIP control faces 2 hurdles. The first is very simple, the FCC is watching for this like a hawk. Second, cable is crushing indy VOIP with little effort and they're not doing that with video.

As for your broadband price model, you're model requires that the per unit cost of bandwidth doesn't drop which it certainly does, keeping per user bandwidth costs the same as consumption increases.

We've seen from Bell Canada's data, that even with the increase in traffic, there is no capacity crunch and providers like AT&T who in confidence reiterate that they have no capacity crunch expand from 10 gig to 40 gig and eventually to 100 gig while their data services margins increase (according to their annual report).

It's certainly no coincidence that after a decade of providing unmetered service that only after rolling out their own video product (U-Verse) are they moving to caps.

See 9 replies to this post

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1 edit
said by espaeth See Profile :

If they're so anxious about competition for revenue, then why aren't they going after Internet VoIP competition which strikes at one of their most lucrative services right now?
They'd probably love to, but VOIP data is such a small fart on a bandwidth meter that it's too hard to come up with a good excuse to stop it and not be blatantly anti-competitive.

Movie downloads, on the other hand, might double or triple someone's former "average use". They've seen what VOIP has done to telephony, do you think they want to re-live it for video?

OTA HD + internet VOD/IPTV might be a very powerful combination.
rahvin112

join:2002-05-24
Sandy, UT

If you think VOIP revenues are anything like the Video revenues you are nuts.

Video is the bread and butter, VOIP and Internet are second fiddle. Their entire business model is based on video. Now you are talking about other people being able to sell slightly less overpriced PPV to their customers using their lines. You don't think that bothers them? Do you have any idea how much profit they make on PPV? The margin is like 80% to the MSO. PPV is a number one priority for every MSO because it's a huge percentage of their profit margin on the entire service.

3rd party providers eating into that revenue is a major scary for them. Just as Internet TV is scary. They don't want people to be able to download video quickly or conveniently from anyone but themselves because then people might only buy the internet and buy their TV direct. They have a business model that is built entirely on being the middleman in a transaction, internet video is creating the possibility of eliminating that role of middlemen and making them a commodity bandwidth provider.

Maybe that's not feasible right now but it will be down the road. The strategic solution for them is not to wait till it gets here then claim problems, but to get limits or systems in place that make internet TV impossible, inconvenient, or poor quality right now so the business can't develop. Caps on bandwidth virtually guarantees you will never be downloading your HD television broadcasts and likely not even SD content.
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