Technical > Weather > [SWX] TS Fay

[SWX] TS Fay

AS far as here its not goimng to happen though this chart days out may seem so

Since KW bulls eye...Continually sliding to the west as this characture low intensity (even Ivan the supposed Terrible much worrse) has... a minimal a storm is not going to want to cross mountainous Cuba we are politicaly told to hate, but geologically glad its there... unless it really intensifies it will continue to slide west and go up the slot... What happens in the GFulf well north of us who knows at this point... but be very surprised if this trach doesn;t continue to slide west around Cuba.

May look like it now... but you really wast to bet a very sub hurricane storm is going to cross Cuba... we may get much needed rain but very much doubt it will be a major storm.... up the Gulf maybe but not here.

Even this track it headed for Ft Jeff (60 mi west... that last dot) not KW and will head more west as it progresses.--

What convinced me IVAN wouldn't come here... much more intense but same kind of track.... it steped south of Jamaca let alone Cuba... and again went up the slot and hit the Pensacola/AL/MS areas

An then Fox sent Geroldo here... now how much more could you guaratee the failure of anything.
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»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

reply to Axilla
keep moving west

reply to Axilla

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion

reply to MJimLay

Re: [SWX] TS Fay

reply to Axilla

A turn?

reply to Axilla

Re: [SWX] TS Fay

reply to Axilla
Looks like it's time for Hayward, LilHurricane and other FL folks to eye the Home Depot supplies and stock up their emergency boxes.

I am watching the Bermuda high move to the west and the trough that is over the Panhandle of Florida is starting to lift out and this will allow another high to move into blocking position over Florida.

If this continues, New Orleans could again come into the line of possible landfalls. Multiple highs will shift as the low lifts out over the southeast carrying Fay them. If they move to far west look for Fay to continue west. The water is 90 degrees and the sheer will be minimal.

reply to HFB1217
That is not looking good

LilH you need to stop doing those Hurricane dances..

..but ..but

Guidance models are suggesting that if Fay moves out over the Florida Straights she will straighten rapidly and coming ashore as a cat 1 Hurricane in the Largo Tampa Bay area then skirt the west coast all north towards the Florida Panhandle.

But if the storm stays over land then moves out into the Gulf around Wednesday then westerly sheer might affect its movements over Florida back out into the Atlantic. Thats running the BAMS and the Canadian Models together which at this time are the most Constance.

Two other low grade models suggest that if Fat stays over Cuba she will fall apart and not reorganize even if it moves into the Gulf. The other model suggests that if it moves north into the gulf, westerly sheer will block its west ward progress and shift it north towards New Orleans.

As you can see there are many possibilities over the next 72 hours. It all depends on Fay's shift to the south side of axis of storm center which is occurring now and if she can recover from that movement.
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

reply to Axilla
This isn't looking so hot for NW Florida.

Yesterday the track showed the storm heading more our way, but I didn't have a feeling or anything. Today I was at work and noticed the track changed to the east again and we were out of the picture. Me and a coworker got to talking about the storm and he said "Oh yeah, I think it's heading that way. I have that gut feeling" and I thought to myself "Yeah Right... It isn't heading this way" and I got home this evening, took a nap and checked again and we are back in the picture. Now I am starting to get a gut feeling like I did with Hurricane Ivan.

reply to lilhurricane

said by lilhurricane:

..but ..but

reply to ghostpainter
Ok I'm on board for the Peninsula hit now. I even got a map up for ya to look at! lol.

Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
August 16, 2008– 7:45pm PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Map: »www.owsweather.com/tsd1.html

Fay is a tropical storm right now. While we cannot do the strength forecasts as this may be a bit tough to get a hold on, the track is turning more East. A low pressure system out ahead of the storm might actually slow down the Westward direction. This would allow it to begin It's turn North.
Earlier projections had it West of the Peninsula of Florida. However, as the storm gets closer, larger scale features are able to be pinpointed. At this time we will project it into Florida. We know this is a given. Right now we will take it about the same path Hurricane Charley did. Right up the Peninsula from the South-Southwest. Current NHC projections put it a bit further West of what I am thinking at this time.
After that, it would ride up the Eastern seaboard. Question remains...Is New York in the path of the circulation down the line?

Updates to come.

K. MARTIN

It's Obviously beat it's way through the brick wall. The current sat images (0600 eastern)would almost make you think that it has split in two across Jamaica. Currently you can see good outflow, but it's very hard to determine the center. It seems to be with the northern area of convection that just went into Cuba. If the large area of convection south of Jamaica starts to spin as well that would really mess up the models. I don't remember of any storm ever splitting, but I have seen two come together and go into binary motion causing both storms to accelerate wildly.

reply to Axilla