1 edit | reply to Axilla
Re: [SWX] TS Fay I'm about done with Fay due to the fact it is actually not a true tropical system to me. It's acting like a CUTOFF LOW and has a deep core to it like one. It is ANYONES guess where it will go and no one can claim such anymore. But this is the best I have right now.
Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
August 21, 2008– 8:30am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Source:»www.owsweather.com/tsd1.html
Fay is one annoying storm for all meteorologists including myself. It is anyone's guess where she will head next but we can do the shorter term. As of now Fay's track is still going through Northern Florida. The only weird thing about this is now it is leaving Florida into Georgia or will try to go more North?
Fay is not catching up to the parent upper low and may be subject to fall behind to be pressed North. We will see what happens with this, but as far as I am concerned, Fay will go into Northern Florida in the short term. If it does take this track, Fay will be done with and turn into a tropical depression rather quickly.
Fay's track has been easy to forecast in the shorter term. However, due to this parent low hanging around her she is not having much of a decision to move many places.
NHC's track takes it further South than we have it now. So if you want to blend both forecasts then do so. We are very close to NHC's track on the OWS models until about mid point Northern FL where we divide.
We will discuss more on Fay on the radio show this evening. |
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 ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | Any storm that has the potential to drop another two feet of rain and retain its tropical charactertists is not to excused lightly. Fay will be be done with when she disappears over Mississippi.
As for tracking, the Bermuda High, the high in the mid Atlantic states and the low are all interplexing. Fay remains on a course that will take it ashore sometime tomorrow morning. If Fay were another 100 miles off of the coast we would have to worry about her becoming a Hurricane.
She will follow a course dictated by the highs and lows to the north of her. I think she will track just off shore and come ashore near New Orleans then move north and dissipate still dropping large amounts of rain.
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My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes |
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| She's already coming ashore.
She won't stick for very long. At this point no one can say the track. I'm officially almost done with Fay. |
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vasta
join:2003-04-07
Orlando, FL | its worse here now then it was 2 days ago
we needed teh rain |
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 Budster6 DigitPremium
join:2001-01-05
Carlsbad, NM | reply to Axilla
This storm is going to be the "TS Allison" 2000 for Florida. Its going to be a very messy ordeal.
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Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore! |
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 imtim83Hate the people from there. Stop copyingPremium
join:2001-06-03
Kenner, LA
1 edit | said by Budster:This storm is going to be the "TS Allison" 2000 for Florida. Its going to be a very messy ordeal. Thank you Budster and ghostpainter someone who finally sees the full picture.
Now she could go anywhere not saying where she will go after Florida. Should could dissipate over Florida or do anything. |
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ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | 
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Well Kevin can be done with Fay but Tropical Storm Fay is not done with the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast.
Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al062008
800 Pm EDF Thu Aug 21 2008
...Fay Drifting Westward Near The Northeastern Florida Coast...
At 8 Pm EDF...0000 Utc...The Tropical Storm Warning Along The
Florida East Coast South Of Sebastian Inlet Has Been Discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect From Sebastian Inlet
Florida Northward To The Savannah River At The Border Between
Georgia And South Carolina.
A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect Along The Florida Gulf
Coast From The Suwannee River To Indian Pass.
For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.
At 800 Pm EDF...0000Z...The Center Of Tropical Storm Fay Was Located
Near Latitude 29.3 North...Longitude 81.2 West...Just West Of
Flagler Beach Florida.
Fay Is Drifting Toward The West Near 2 Mph...4 Km/Hr. Fay Is
Forecast To Move Westward Or West-Northwestward With Some Increase
In Forward Speed During The Next Couple Of Days. On This
Track...The Center Of Fay Is Expected To Move Slowly Across The
Northern Florida Peninsula Tonight And Early Friday...And Be Very
Near The Florida Panhandle Coast By Late Friday Or Early Saturday.
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 60 Mph...95 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Some Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...With
Little Change In Strength Expected Friday Night And Saturday.
Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 150 Miles...240 Km
Mainly To The East Of The Center.
Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 993 Mb...29.32 Inches.
Fay Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 5 To 10 Inches
Across The Central To Northern Portion Of The Florida
Peninsula...Including The Florida Panhandle...Southern
Georgia...And Southeastern Alabama...With Isolated Maximum Amounts
Of 15 Inches Possible. Rainfall Totals Of 2 To 4 Inches Are
Possible Across The Coastal Areas Of Southern South Carolina.
Additional Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 2 Inches Are Possible Over
Southwest And Southern Florida. Isolated Storm Total Accumulations
Of 20 To 30 Inches Have Been Observed With This System Over The East
Central Coastal Areas Of Florida.
Storm Surge Flooding Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tides Is Possible
Along The East Coast Of Florida And Georgia To The North Of The
Center Of Fay.
Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Tonight Over Portions Of
Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia.
Repeating The 800 Pm EDF Position...29.3 N...81.2 W. Movement
Toward...West Near 2 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...60 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...993 Mb.
The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Pm EDF.
$$
Forecaster Brown/Knabb
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes |
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| Hey GP listen to my radio show. Maybe one day you can call in when we do some events. A lot listened to it tonight. 3x more than last night. We archived it, and had a live caller from near Orlando chime in.
Link is here Gary.
»www.owsweather.com/radio.html |
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 MJimLayAKA FlexBaudPremium
join:2004-10-06
Pensacola, FL
kudos:2 | reply to Axilla
OMG OMG OMG!!! IT'S HEADING FOR PENSACOLA!!!! |
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| This thing will go where it wants. It's more of a warm core cutoff low. |
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ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | reply to MJimLay
said by MJimLay:OMG OMG OMG!!! IT'S HEADING FOR PENSACOLA!!!! Yeah, So....  |
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Budster6 DigitPremium
join:2001-01-05
Carlsbad, NM | reply to Axilla
Its not heading anywhere anytime soon. High Pressure has built up around 1015mb in the north central gulf of mexico. It does have some room to move around, but maybe just enough to wobble. Keep that in mind when the NHC gives it a direction, it may just be bouncing around. FYI: 1016mb to it's east and 1016mb to its north.
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Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore! |
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| reply to Budster
Re: [SWX] TS Fay Finally moving! I'm taking it into Alabama if it wants to. |
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ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | I have a feeling its going to surprise a lot of people....We are not done with Fay yet. |
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| This could be my last write up on this. Finally. Get her inland.
Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
August 22, 2008– 10:00am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Fay is finally on the move. Finally? Because it just wouldn't move for days! It almost made a campsite out of the Southeastern USA. But this morning it is finally morning again. Currently nearing the Eastern extent of the Florida Panhandle, Fay is still a tropical storm with winds of 45 mph. these will continue to weaken and it will become a tropical depression over the next day or so.
Tracks from NHC take fay back over the extreme Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico. This could allow additional strengthening and it is the Southern most track of the OWS models. Since Fay has been able to move some, the OWS models are trying to figure out where she will go finally.
All OWS models have Fay going in a West-Northwestern direction through the Florida Panhandle. Where they end up is the key. None end up over the Gulf Of Mexico. They take Fay into Alabama and Mississippi. Where it goes it most likely a sharp turn to the Northeast as it is finally swept up.
Two tropical waves are out in the Atlantic right now and show signs of additional development. None are expected to pose a danger to land in the next couple days so we will wait for more development on those to figure paths out.
Updates to come.
K. MARTIN |
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Reviews:
 ·Charter
| reply to Axilla
latest from NWS:
»www.srh.weather.gov/jax/vHLS/Fay···yer.html
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There's so much to be thankful for...How can anyone be sad? |
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Reviews:
·Charter
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
FLC031-109-221815-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-080822T1815Z/
ST. JOHNS FL-DUVAL FL-
134 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL AND NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES...
AT 134 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BAYARD...OR 6 MILES WEST OF PALM VALLEY...
MOVING NORTH AT 36 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UNF...
SAN PABLO...ARLINGTON...FORT CAROLINE AND TALLYRAND.
SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR
HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER
YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LAT...LON 3004 8133 3002 8152 3036 8164 3040 8144
3041 8144 3041 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 163DEG 31KT 3021 8150
$$
Be careful out their in Jacksonville
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There's so much to be thankful for...How can anyone be sad? |
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Budster6 DigitPremium
join:2001-01-05
Carlsbad, NM
2 edits | reply to ghostpainter
said by ghostpainter:I have a feeling its going to surprise a lot of people....We are not done with Fay yet. I agree with this! Things are moving around and I can't predict what and where these shifts will take place. What I mentioned yesterday has pretty much changed. I don't see the Northwest movement coming into play. High Pressure in the GOM is shifting up and merging with the Northern ridge turning the NWQ direction a "brick wall" My guess is: by the time Fay reaches the western panhandle, there may be some influence to push Fay into the GOM which is blocked right now. Let's see!
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Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore! |
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SmokChsrWho let the magic smoke out?Premium
join:2006-03-17
Saint Augustine, FL Reviews:
 ·Clearwire Wireless
| reply to Axilla
Looks like the worst of Fay has moved out of my area, (St. Augustine Fl) although as she moves west one more rain band will come in. As long as she keeps moving it shouldn't be much of a problem. North Jacksonville got the worst rain in this area, radar estimates are showing 15+ inches in that area. For the most part in my area the rainfall rate was low enough to be tolerated. The Lowest pressure I recorded was 998mB. It dropped to it's low at 2PM Thursday and didn't start rising again until 1AM this morning.
With this rainfall amount into the Okefenokee swamp I would expect flooding along the Suwanee & Santa Fe rivers in the next few days. |
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