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KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK

World's Biggest Douche....

... and the winner is.....

Craig Moffett!

»/r0/download/1···fett.jpg


danclan

join:2005-11-01
Midlothian, VA
its these typical short sighted assessments that led the cable co's to the hybrid fiber coax plants in the first place. Comcast had the chance to convert to all fiber but didnt.

The biggest richest men think long term 5+ years. Fios and Verizon are primed for that time frame. As are ANY full FTTH providers.

Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time.

deviationer

join:2005-01-01
Portland, OR
reply to KrK
HAHAHAHAH

dynodb
Premium,VIP
join:2004-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
reply to danclan
said by danclan:

Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time.
That may be true, but if so- letting someone else be the guinea pig and work out the bugs isn't necessarily a bad thing. The longer you wait, the lower the deployment costs become (as Verizon has witnessed). Waiting until there's a high demand also decreases the time it takes to get a return on your investment.

Remember- about 75% of people who could get FiOS... don't.

Who's smarter- the one who rushed out and installed Windows Vista on the day it was released, or the one who waited a bit to see how it worked out?


KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
said by dynodb:

Who's smarter- the one who rushed out and installed Windows Vista on the day it was released, or the one who waited a bit to see how it worked out?
The one who waited for all the hacks and DRM to be stripped out and then installed it for free.

Heh, j/k'ing but I get your point.

Still though, long term the Cable co could be rushing to play catch up while bleeding customers to FIOS.
--
"Regulatory capitalism is when companies invest in lawyers, lobbyists, and politicians, instead of plant, people, and customer service." - former FCC Chairman William Kennard (A real FCC Chairman, unlike the current Corporate Spokesperson in the job!)

EPS4

join:2008-02-13
Hingham, MA
reply to dynodb
When Vista SP1 was released, then the person who had installed it first could fly ahead having experience already with the system, while the person who waited to upgrade would still have the difficulties of being used to the XP environment and have to undergo those shifts as well?

The big cost of FTTH is deployment. After the system exists changing technologies on the system is much easier than having to rebuild the system from scratch- when CMCSA/TWC/Cox decide to migrate to an all-FTTH system, they'll have to deploy, while Verizon will have a deployed system already.

The big problem is that this results in massive shortterm costs and a landline division that is falling apart and is propped up only by the runaway success that is Verizon Wireless. The real benefits won't be seen in the future... as bandwidth needs grow, more people will want the kinds of speeds that VZ is ready to provide, but right now it's very shaky, and patches on the cable system like DOCSIS 3 will extend the shaky period.


tschmidt
Premium,MVM
join:2000-11-12
Milford, NH
kudos:9
Reviews:
·G4 Communications
reply to dynodb
said by dynodb:

letting someone else be the guinea pig and work out the bugs isn't necessarily a bad thing. The longer you wait, the lower the deployment costs become (as Verizon has witnessed). Waiting until there's a high demand also decreases the time it takes to get a return on your investment.
There are risks being too early as well as being too late.

Too early there is not enough market demand and implementation cost is high.

Moving too late and your competitor is established in the market place. How are you going to justify massive investment to be the number two or number player in a competitive market?

I think Verizon has opted to roll out fiber at about the right time. Installation costs are reasonable, fiber allows triple play services that DSL does not, and operating costs for fiber are much lower then copper. Once Verizon has fiber in place they will be in a virtually unsaleable position.

Ten years from now they will likely be reaping the benefits of today's investment. Today's naysayers will be congratulating Verizon on their foresight.

/tom

jmallory

join:2005-11-02
Essexville, MI
said by tschmidt:

I think Verizon has opted to roll out fiber at about the right time. Installation costs are reasonable, fiber allows triple play services that DSL does not, and operating costs for fiber are much lower then copper. Once Verizon has fiber in place they will be in a virtually unsaleable position.

Ten years from now they will likely be reaping the benefits of today's investment. Today's naysayers will be congratulating Verizon on their foresight.

/tom
Does this reduced operating costs for fiber take into account maintaining those ONTs? You know, 10 years is a long time, and who is to say that 10 years from now that Verizon may need to replace those ONTs en masse with all the costs and customer complaints that entails?


Mchart
First There.

join:2004-01-21
Kaneohe, HI
reply to KrK
said by KrK:

... and the winner is.....

Craig Moffett!

»/r0/download/1···fett.jpg
Yeah, he looks pretty douche-i-fied. The hair, the fake smile, and the expensive suit that doesn't seem to fit. Douche'.


Nightshade
Premium
join:2002-05-26
Salem, OR
The perfect picture to throw darts at.
--
True Happiness Must Come From Within


Doctor Four
My other vehicle is a TARDIS
Premium
join:2000-09-05
Dallas, TX

1 edit
reply to KrK
This fool should join Senator Ted "Tubes" Stevens.

They'd make an excellent comedy team (albeit an unwitting one).

majortom1029

join:2006-10-19
Lindenhurst, NY
kudos:1
reply to danclan
I think your very misinformed about the capacity of hfc. The docsis specs state about 270mbps can be done via docsis 3 . So that gives cable companies a lot of headroom for now. YEs eventuallly they will have to switch but by the time they have to they will have even more fiber run and will just have to replace the last mile.

Heck cisco has equipment now that can do both ftth and docsis 3. Cable companies are in a better position then you think.


RARPSL

join:1999-12-08
Suffern, NY
said by majortom1029:

I think your very misinformed about the capacity of hfc. The docsis specs state about 270mbps can be done via docsis 3 . So that gives cable companies a lot of headroom for now.
So long as each DOCSIS 3.0 customer has their own node. Once you place more than one customer on the node, you must share that 270mps and the average speed goes down. With FIOS, you have a DEDICATED connection to the CO and thus you get full "Last Mile" speeds and the choke point is in the CO which has a much larger pipe to share with the customers/users (ie: You do not get slowed down by someone who is sharing your node's bandwidth.

majortom1029

join:2006-10-19
Lindenhurst, NY
kudos:1
Also this is what i am getting with optimum online boost.



So when cablevision goes docsis 3 i think up 270 (wont reach that for a while) cablevision atleast would compete pretty well with fios and they have been up till this point.

Verizons network needed an upgrade more then cables network does. The cable companies will be able to compete with fios. Offer similiar speeds at a cheaper price.Yes they will eventually go all fiber but it will be easier for the cable companies to do that.


KrK
Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy
Premium
join:2000-01-17
Tulsa, OK
reply to KrK
Wait... we have a challenger!



This is getting tough!


alchav

join:2002-05-17
Saint George, UT
Reviews:
·ooma
reply to danclan
said by danclan:

its these typical short sighted assessments that led the cable co's to the hybrid fiber coax plants in the first place. Comcast had the chance to convert to all fiber but didn't.

The biggest richest men think long term 5+ years. Fios and Verizon are primed for that time frame. As are ANY full FTTH providers.

Its only a matter of time before Comcast and others will have to deploy FTTH. They may come up with some magic bullet in the mean time but they are just biding time.
You are absolutely right, but there is no "Magic Bullet." FTTH is the future, and I said this a long time ago, Verizon is the clear winner. It might cost them money now, but in the long run Verizon will be way ahead of who ever is in second place. Even AT&T's U-Verse is having trouble right now. If these Companies don't wake up soon most will fail and never catch up.

rifleman69

join:2006-04-12
Beaverton, OR
reply to Mchart
said by Mchart:

said by KrK:

... and the winner is.....

Craig Moffett!

»/r0/download/1···fett.jpg
Yeah, he looks pretty douche-i-fied. The hair, the fake smile, and the expensive suit that doesn't seem to fit. Douche'.
What a douche!


PGHammer

join:2003-06-09
Accokeek, MD

1 recommendation

reply to EPS4
said by EPS4:

When Vista SP1 was released, then the person who had installed it first could fly ahead having experience already with the system, while the person who waited to upgrade would still have the difficulties of being used to the XP environment and have to undergo those shifts as well?

The big cost of FTTH is deployment. After the system exists changing technologies on the system is much easier than having to rebuild the system from scratch- when CMCSA/TWC/Cox decide to migrate to an all-FTTH system, they'll have to deploy, while Verizon will have a deployed system already.

The big problem is that this results in massive shortterm costs and a landline division that is falling apart and is propped up only by the runaway success that is Verizon Wireless. The real benefits won't be seen in the future... as bandwidth needs grow, more people will want the kinds of speeds that VZ is ready to provide, but right now it's very shaky, and patches on the cable system like DOCSIS 3 will extend the shaky period.
And most businesses (regardless of what business they are in) hate capex runups (which is what any major longterm infrastructure improvement generates) because they impact dividends (which are the only growth measure important to institutional investors, such as bondholders and pension plans like CalPERS). FTTH/FTTP is a capex monster (to a large extent, Vista SP1 deployment is a capex monster also, because it requires wholesale replacement of all those systems that date back to 2000 and 2001, most because they don't meet the processor-power requirements of even a system from 2004 would have, let alone a modern system; despite how much cheaper PCs or Macs are today, when you buy several hundred at a time, that's a rather large item on the liability side of the ledger). Maximizing dividends and keeping costs down looks good for the debtholders and short-term investors (and most bears are very much short-term investors). But as cable's required annual capex catches up to VZ's FTTP/FTTH-related per-customer capex hits (and as the economies of scale that VZ is starting to reap kick in, that will happen, and not in any way favorable to cable), the FTTP strategy will prove out. 2010 was a major number in the NYT articles regarding VZ's FIOS strategy; it's also a major point in the VZ FIOS deployment timeline here in Maryland. VZ will actually have FIOS deployed and available to over two-thirds of their Maryland customer base (by population) by that magic 2010, and three-fourths of the customer base (by area) by 2020. (Pretty much the only areas that won't have seen massive FTTP/FTTH deployments will be Washington County/Hagerstown and points west, and the Eastern Shore; basically the far east and far west of the state.)

jca2050
Premium
join:2002-02-04
Dallas, TX
reply to dynodb
said by dynodb:

said by danclan:

Remember- about 75% of people who could get FiOS... don't.

Is that a fact? I highly doubt that.