| reply to ghostpainter
Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf NHC is tracking more along my track, however they curve it under Florida into the Gulf. The intersection before my track is what will play this story. Cuba and through? Or curve before Cuba and South of Florida like NHC says...It's a close one but they are NOW on my track for a couple days. |
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 ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | Northerly shear continues to a take a toll on Ike. Satellite images
show that the eye has become less clear and that most of the
convection is in the southern semicircle. In addition...a recent
ssmis microwave image shows that the eyewall is open on the north
side. Using a blend of the objective and subjective Dvorak
classifications...the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt...and
this could be generous. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane
is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this afternoon to obtain
a better estimate of the current intensity and wind radii. Almost
all of the global models show decreasing shear over Ike in about a
day due to a weakening of strong northeasterly upper winds. Except
for a small patch of SSTs near and north of the southeastern
Bahamas...waters are very warm along the forecast path. The
official forecast shows a slow weakening of the hurricane due to
the shear for the first 24 hours...then shows intensification as
upper-winds slacken...in general agreement with the lgem model. In
a couple days...vertical wind shear will likely become light...and
conditions look rather favorable for intensification. The official
forecast could be conservative in the longer-range as the HWRF and
GFDL show a more intense hurricane. Regardless of exactly how
strong it is...all signs are that Ike will be a dangerous hurricane
for days to come.
Ike has been moving south of west during the past few hours...about
260/14. This general track with some decrease in forward speed is
forecast over the next 36 hours due to a strong ridge wedging into
between Ike and Hanna. The ridge should weaken somewhat in a couple
of days...steering the hurricane more to the west and eventually
west-northwest. However...models are not in good agreement on when
this west-northwest motion could materialize. Generally the models
that drive the system farther south...such as the ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL
models...suggest the ridge will remain intact enough to eventually
send Ike toward Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The
UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...on the other hand...suggest the hurricane will
move more the west and has a better chance of being affected by a
weakness in the ridge around 80w. Since the hurricane is moving
well south of the latter cluster of models already...the official
forecast leans more toward the southern guidance and shifted
southwest of the previous forecast.
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes |
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 shanerPremium
join:2000-10-04
Calgary, AB | If it curves like NHC thinks, that will take it right up Tampa Bay.
First New Orleans, then Tampa. New York would be third based on the list of most vulnerable cities.
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The opinions in this post are wholly my own and in no way reflect the opinions of, or are influenced by my employer. |
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 CheesePremium
join:2003-10-26
Naples, FL
kudos:1 | reply to ghostpainter
Video, on CNN, from the ISS.
»www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weathe···pace.cnn |
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| reply to Hayward
I am suppose to arrive in the Keys, next Thursday for a much needed vacation, Is it likely that Ike will have passed through at that point in time? My timing sucks, let's hope for the best and that any destruction is minimal and no injuries to anyone. |
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CheesePremium
join:2003-10-26
Naples, FL
kudos:1 | said by seanrafa :
I am suppose to arrive in the Keys, next Thursday for a much needed vacation, Is it likely that Ike will have passed through at that point in time? My timing sucks, let's hope for the best and that any destruction is minimal and no injuries to anyone.
I would say at this point, timing may be bad. |
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 sansri88digital is herePremium
join:2005-12-17
New York, NY
kudos:1 | I concur.
I would consider changing your travel plans. |
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ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | reply to seanrafa
We have Josephine to worry about and another wave coming off of Africa now. |
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vasta
join:2003-04-07
Orlando, FL
1 edit | reply to sansri88
so this thing is going to curve and head right through florida or is it going to ride the coast? |
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sansri88digital is herePremium
join:2005-12-17
New York, NY
kudos:1 | That latest map shows it going through the lower Keys..but it's still a while off till it does that so the path can change quite a bit. |
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 pcdebbRIP dadkinsPremium
join:2000-12-03
Brandon, FL
kudos:4 | reply to shaner
said by shaner:If it curves like NHC thinks, that will take it right up Tampa Bay. First New Orleans, then Tampa. New York would be third based on the list of most vulnerable cities. I've been watching that and I'm not liking what my eyes are seeing. times like this i WISH i had a vision problem 
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a time for change... | 1st & 10 | Ham is good |
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ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | Anyone in the Keys should start packing just in case...Latest tracking suggests the Ike will pass through the lower Keys or even skirt Havana with 150 mph winds driving a wave surge of 40 feet in front of it.
Thats about as close as we can can accurately get right now.
If you have a bomb shelter, stock up now and stay safe if you decide to stay and have a Hurricane Party.
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes |
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 Hayward K A R - 1 2 0 CPremium
join:2000-07-13
Key West, FL
kudos:1
4 edits | reply to seanrafa
said by seanrafa :
I am suppose to arrive in the Keys, next Thursday for a much needed vacation, Is it likely that Ike will have passed through at that point in time? My timing sucks, let's hope for the best and that any destruction is minimal and no injuries to anyone.
As It is supposed to get here Weds sometime at this point, likely Island would be closed on Thurs, even if not much happens.
5pm update just came out and the 5 day track is continuing to slip west, so with a little luck it may pass south of us and into the Gullf with only minimal hurricane wind impact.
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»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)
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quatrixPremium
join:2005-02-11
Davie, FL
kudos:2 | reply to ghostpainter
At what point do they start providing updated forecasts every 3 hours instead of every 6 hours? Once it's within 3 days of the U.S. or something like that? |
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quatrixPremium
join:2005-02-11
Davie, FL
kudos:2 | reply to vasta
said by vasta:so this thing is going to curve and head right through florida or is it going to ride the coast? If anyone could answer that with high certainty this far out, they'd win the Nobel. |
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ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | reply to quatrix
Once Ike settles down and we can see where the highs, lows and dry air is then we can start getting a bead as to where it is going. I would think Tuesday Morning we should start to see where Ike is going, perhaps Monday night if it speeds up. |
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1 edit | reply to quatrix
said by quatrix:At what point do they start providing updated forecasts every 3 hours instead of every 6 hours? Once it's within 3 days of the U.S. or something like that? When hurricane warnings are posted for the continental US, not watches or TS warnings or watches.
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Proud Member of Team Discovery |
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ghostpainterI Write for the ApocalypsePremium,MVM
join:2002-05-25
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
kudos:3 | Ike Heads for Possible New Orleans Strike Ike continues to move briskly west-southwestward at about 14 kt.
Ike is being steered in that direction due to a mid-level ridge that
extends from near Bermuda southwestward between Ike and Hanna.
This ridge is forecast to gradually shift northward during the next
couple of days. As this happens...Ike is expected to gradually turn
more westward. The track guidance has come into better agreement
on this solution...and has once again shifted south and westward.
In fact...most of the reliable guidance now takes Hanna either over
or along the north coast of Cuba. The new track has been shifted
south and westward of the previous advisory...and it is also a
little faster. It should be noted...that the dynamical model
consensus and several of the individual models are southwest
of the 4 and 5 day NHC positions and if this trend continues
some additional westward shift could be required.
The northeasterly shear currently disrupting the hurricane is
forecast to abate during the next 12 to 24 hours. Since
Ike...still appears to be a very healthy hurricane...little if any
additional weakening is expected before it reaches the southeastern
Bahamas. Beyond 36 hours...the shear is forecast to be very light
and the only negative factor for strengthening will be possible land
interaction. With the official track prediction along the northern
coast of Cuba...it shows only slight weakening due to land.
However...Ike could be weaker than shown below if the center
moves over Cuba...and conversely could be a little stronger if it
remains over water.
The high over the Gulf of Mexico will be shifting to the west. This will allow Ike to head for the Florida Panhandle and points west including a possible strike in New Orleans.
Weatherunderground, gdh-hinghamwx
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes |
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shanerPremium
join:2000-10-04
Calgary, AB
1 edit | reply to ghostpainter
Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf
I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane track fit so neatly in the Florida Straits. |
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| Hmmmm does anyone see another Katrina?? Or is it gona be a Rita? What do yall think? My point of view i think a Rita because of the HIgh place nortwest of it. |
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