Hurricane Ike in Weather

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 20 Sep 2008 23:53:54 EDT

said by ghostpainter :

Okay, we all know that Ike was not Katrina...

I'm curious -- If we subtract the deaths and destruction caused by the failure of the levy system in New Orleans, I wonder how the two compare?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 22:04:47 EDT

KeysCapt : OK, that will be the end of the my hurricane was bigger than yours posts. The name of this topic is Hurricane Ike. Kindly confine your discussion to the topic.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 19:21:52 EDT

seqrets :

said by imtim83 Whatever :

. You build on a peninsula expect to have that happen with a storm surge where there is no seawall.

You're a trip Tim.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:57:47 EDT

Seandhi :

said by imtim83 :

Thank you.

Oh my god! Will you please stfu with your damned pissing contest about who had the bigger hurricane.
--
You're an enlightened cat, and I dig that.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:56:41 EDT

imtim83 :

said by digitalfutur :

This type of damage is very localized, specifically to areas bordered on 2 or more sides by water.

It doesn't make sense to change the hurricane scale because damage is more severe in some areas than others. It's like saying the tornado scale should go to F6 because in certain locales (rural) the damage will be total while in others (urban) it will not be. Overall, the scale of damage will be similar, based on the wind speeds and/or storm surge.

What should happen is for the hurricane forecast to incorporate adjustments for specific areas prone to more severe damaged based on local topography, but that's the job of the NWS, not the NHC.

Thank you.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:55:10 EDT

imtim83 :

said by seqrets :

said by imtim83 :

Was that only on the one small island ? Some of the houses are still there. Not the case with the other storm.

That's is Bolivar Peninsula not an island.

Whatever. You build on a peninsula expect to have that happen with a storm surge where there is no seawall. If there would of been the seawall built it would of not been nearly as bad.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 05:17:46 EDT

Hayward :

said by ghostpainter :

Okay, we all know that Ike was not Katrina, but officials have discovered that the storm surge in the areas like Bolivar Peninsula and Gilchrist were 14 feet on top of a 6 foot tide on top of 20 foot seas. Thats a 34 foot surge on top of a 6 foot tide for a total of 40 feet.

And once again this all gets down into geography WHERE they hit as much as how intense they are.

A Cat 5 sweeping an island pancake (Like Keys 35... but just so unexpected/lack of tech predicted took so many lives)... will do much less damage, vs something like Camille plowing into Miss and then back washing too... again something that never happens realy in the Keys.... Except Wilma passing north over the flats we really go residualy back wash back into deep water...not plowing in surge.

What shocked people here most... winds were vitually gone and sun THEN the sure backwash came in as Wilma aproached the mainland in ever shallowing flats.... trying to get back to deep water... Much as NOLA was not directly done in by Katrina, but the back wash with wind if anything blowing Lake P back out to deep water, that breached the levees and walls.

quote:
on top of 20 foot seas.

which of course is really only a 10 above sea level wave... as that is a 10 ft wave over a 10 ft trough (Thats the way sinusoidal waves work).... yeah that matters if you are on a boat mostly... might pile up over ten hitting shore but not likely an extra 20 unless hits in PERFECT phase, and no underwater obstructions.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 01:46:24 EDT

sailor :

said by robbin :

said by ghostpainter :

Okay, we all know that Ike was not Katrina...

I'm curious -- If we subtract the deaths and destruction caused by the failure of the levy system in New Orleans, I wonder how the two compare?

That is a excellent and interesting question.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 01:34:50 EDT

robbin :

said by ghostpainter :

Okay, we all know that Ike was not Katrina...

I'm curious -- If we subtract the deaths and destruction caused by the failure of the levy system in New Orleans, I wonder how the two compare?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 21:37:32 EDT

ghostpainter : Thats correct. I have been in and have movies of 50 to 60 foot waves in the South China Seas. The wave height is 50 feet and the trough is 50 feet.

But when these waves approach the coast as they did in the Southern Philippines those waves begin to rise up pushing the storm surge ahead of them. Thats when these same 50 foot waves piled up on top of the storm surge.

Same thing that the NWS said about the waves and storm surge hitting in both Katrina and Ike.
--
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Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 21:08:32 EDT

digitalfutur : This type of damage is very localized, specifically to areas bordered on 2 or more sides by water.

It doesn't make sense to change the hurricane scale because damage is more severe in some areas than others. It's like saying the tornado scale should go to F6 because in certain locales (rural) the damage will be total while in others (urban) it will not be. Overall, the scale of damage will be similar, based on the wind speeds and/or storm surge.

What should happen is for the hurricane forecast to incorporate adjustments for specific areas prone to more severe damaged based on local topography, but that's the job of the NWS, not the NHC.

--
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke. "Walk the Talk".

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:56:41 EDT

Budster : storm surge and wave heights are seperate entities and certainly wave heights can't equal 1 for 1 with a storm surge. Its just a wave, 10 feet high having a 10 foot trough.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 19:01:04 EDT

ghostpainter : Okay, we all know that Ike was not Katrina, but officials have discovered that the storm surge in the areas like Bolivar Peninsula and Gilchrist were 14 feet on top of a 6 foot tide on top of 20 foot seas. Thats a 34 foot surge on top of a 6 foot tide for a total of 40 feet.

This storm height was achieved when the Northern quadrant, the one we are always worried about moved from off of the Louisiana coast westward and piled up and into these areas. The winds were recorded as 110 sustained with gust to 145 perhaps higher.

Currently the number of missing is unknown, presumed to be in the hundreds.
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Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 18:31:58 EDT

seqrets : Pics added of the Bolivar Peninsula.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 18:17:11 EDT

seqrets :

said by imtim83 :

Was that only on the one small island ? Some of the houses are still there. Not the case with the other storm.

That's is Bolivar Peninsula not an island.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 12:36:30 EDT

ghostpainter : Global warming is why we are having Freeze and frost warnings in New England beginning to night....Also why temps in California MT's were down into the 20's and 30's last night.

Also we should have about 4 more more days of quite in the Atlantic, but we are already watching A wave associated with a low in the lesser Antilles which used to be Josephine.

Re: Hurricane Ike Pictures; The destruction of Gilchrest Texas

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 12:29:07 EDT

sailor : This fish was among those caught in a fence by flood waters brought by Hurricane Ike in West Orange, Texas. (AP / September 16, 2008)

Re: Hurricane Ike Pictures; The destruction of Gilchrest Texas

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 12:28:11 EDT

sailor : Bill Murphy, second from right, waits with three rescuers for a boat to pull them to safety after Murphy's wife Barbara and two others were rescued by a Coast Guard helicopter in High Island, Texas, as Hurricane Ike moves toward Texas. (Guy Reynolds/Dallas Morning )

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 09:54:34 EDT

ropeguru : Friend of mine sitting here next to me in Beaumont, TX saw where Ike has caused damage all the way up in Iceland with 75mph winds.

Crazy storms this year...

Now ducks head waiting for all the global warming fanatics... :o

Re: Hurricane Ike Pictures; The destruction of Gilchrest Texas

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 03:21:57 EDT

MrMoody : The authorities are now saying the death toll may rise significantly because people may have washed out to sea with their homes and the missing haven't been tallied well yet.
--
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Hurricane Ike Pictures; The destruction of Gilchrest Texas

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:14:22 EDT

ghostpainter : It's rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can't even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren't swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It's bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist's case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike's direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20' high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay's waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.
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Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:35:59 EDT

yock : Ike has been a once in a lifetime occurrence, colliding with a cold front in the central states and restrengthening. It delivered sustained tropical force winds to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and others with gusts upwards of 75 - 80MPH. It may not have had the utterly catastrophic storm surge that Katrina, and it may not have defeated the levies, but it raged across an area unprecedented to anyone living today.

Hurricane Ike Pictures

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:34:11 EDT

Budster : .

IKE_PICS.pps.zip 826,557 bytes

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 13:31:22 EDT

Budster :

said by ghostpainter :

This is why we need a new scale for Hurricanes and people quit talking about who was worse. From what I am receiving in from other Hingham members it appears that Ike was every bit as bad as Katrina.

Every Bit? Not in a million years
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Hurricane Ike Hits Southwest Iceland

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 11:32:39 EDT

ghostpainter : Fierce Storm Hits Southwest Iceland

Search and rescue teams were called out in many places in southwest Iceland last night because of a full-blown rainstorm. The Capital Region Fire Department helped people cope with leaks and bind loose objects that were blowing away in the storm.

At Reykjavík Domestic Airport a small airplane blew into a fence. The weather did not, however, delay international flights yesterday, Morgunbladid reports.

Ólafsvík on Snaefellsnes peninsula suffered from heavy downpour with the wind-speed reaching 30 meters per second. At the harbor, boat owners were busy fastening their vessels to shore.

In the neighboring town of Hellissandur, emergency services were called out because of roofing slates that were coming loose. That was also the case in the Sudurnes region on Reykjanes peninsula and in the capital region.

In Adalstraeti in downtown Reykjavík emergency services prevented a tent erected for an archeological excavation from blowing away.

Meteorologists at the Icelandic Meteorological Office say the storm was caused by an exceptionally deep depression which was accompanied by the remains of Hurricane Ike.

The storm is expected to travel across east Iceland today.
--
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Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 00:05:28 EDT

imtim83 :

Was that only on the one small island ? Some of the houses are still there. Not the case with the other storm.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 21:01:17 EDT

EGeezer : It got plenty of press here. Our power went out around 3:30PM Sun, back up around 11:15 Monday. Our little burg usually gets power restored sooner than most when storms come through. As of right now, there are still about 225,000-250000 AEP customers out of power according to the AEPohio web site. 203,000 are in Franklin County (Metro Columbus area).

We had winds of 50 MPH or so, with gusts near 70. Damage was from trees and limbs, siding blown off, cars damaged by falling limbs. there was one power line down in town. Our surrounding farmland is still without power.
--
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Ike Storm surge wipes out entire communities.

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:30:37 EDT

ghostpainter : This is why we need a new scale for Hurricanes and people quit talking about who was worse. From what I am receiving in from other Hingham members it appears that Ike was every bit as bad as Katrina.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 10:10:52 EDT

McSummation :

Although I don't live on the coast, we get some pretty fierce storms in the spring. (Think F3-F5 tornadoes.) We generally don't want the media around in the aftermath because they just get in the way. Same thing for the high level politicos (presidents, governors, etc.) because they and their "security" do nothing but get in the way and hinder the actual work that needs to be done. Yes, it's news when an entire subdivision disappears except for the concrete slabs and some of the bodies are never found (Jarrell, TX 1997), but it does no good for the news people to hang around and keep yammering about it. After one of these storms, what we hear is the sound of chain saws, not generators driving satellite trucks.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 08:29:44 EDT

yock :

said by sailor :

Is it just me or has IKE's multi-states destructive path gone basically under-reported because it didn't end up killing 100's of people or turn into some monster category 4 or 5?

Now having been a first-hand victim of a storm like this, I can honestly say that it isn't important. I don't mind, or even care, that Ike hasn't been reported on to an extensive degree. I trust that the electrical linesmen are working hard to restore my electricity. I trust that folks are getting the help they need removing debris, as I've even done some helping around my neighborhoods. My girlfriend works in healthcare, and I can confidently say that people in my neighborhoods are getting the emergency care they need because health care facilities have been on uninterrupted power thanks for multiple redundant generators on-site at those facilities.

We're all living as best we can, taking care of each other. I'm not broken up about the news not reporting it, because it's what we're supposed to be doing and we shouldn't be looking for recognition.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 01:05:57 EDT

tao : Not to be overly cynical, I hope, but it would have helped if Ike had simply waited until prime time to make landfall.

As it was, I saw the strangest site the only time I looked at news on tv during the storm. There was this youngish female reporter standing somewhere in or around Houston. She was wearing rather tight clothing that was vigorously flapping in the wind. Of course she was in a hurricane. However, she was also wearing a baseball cap over her pulled back hair. Most of the time she had a hand on her hat, but when she got excited about the story, her hand came off the hat which never came off. Whatever, it was obvious enough for me to wonder, and remember. There were simply not enough pins in the world to hold that hat on the way her clothes were flapping about. Shameful really.

Maybe the mods could move this interesting aspect of hurricanes into it's own thread and leave Ike to this Ike thread.
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 00:53:56 EDT

imtim83 :

said by sailor :

Maybe it is just me since I don't watch TV news at all and don't know how they are broadcasting now about Ike but it seems to me reading online news that the majority of the coverage on Ike went limp once he didn't turn out to be a higher level hurricane...

What I'm trying to say is in the bits and pieces I am reading online news and from members here posting in different forums it seems to me that IKE was a very devastating hurricane and then storm to many people in a very wide-spread area of the country but yet not that much is being said about that....Areas of Ohio for example where I have read right here on this website that more than a couple of members who live in Ohio have suffered roofs damaged, many trees down, flooding, loss of power etc and part of the coast of Texas really got smashed...

Is it just me or has IKE's multi-states destructive path gone basically under-reported because it didn't end up killing 100's of people or turn into some monster category 4 or 5?

I don't see that at all. When you live along the coast you have to expect to get wipped off the map from a huge storm surge every time. I know I would.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 00:35:59 EDT

sailor : Maybe it is just me since I don't watch TV news at all and don't know how they are broadcasting now about Ike but it seems to me reading online news that the majority of the coverage on Ike went limp once he didn't turn out to be a higher level hurricane...

What I'm trying to say is in the bits and pieces I am reading online news and from members here posting in different forums it seems to me that IKE was a very devastating hurricane and then storm to many people in a very wide-spread area of the country but yet not that much is being said about that....Areas of Ohio for example where I have read right here on this website that more than a couple of members who live in Ohio have suffered roofs damaged, many trees down, flooding, loss of power etc and part of the coast of Texas really got smashed...

Is it just me or has IKE's multi-states destructive path gone basically under-reported because it didn't end up killing 100's of people or turn into some monster category 4 or 5?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 18:06:49 EDT

Lyserjic :

said by edocar :

Could someone/ anyone please give me any info you may have on the Humble, Texas area. I have not been able to reach any family members that live there. I'm from the New Orleans area and would greatly appreciate any info you have.

The Humble area got hit pretty hard. Humble for the most part has a lot of tall pines and heavy tree canopy, which as you can imagine, is rough on the power lines. I would try texting your family members if they have cell phones. Voice (cell) service is very erratic.

If you want me to try to send your family members a message locally, PM me the message and I'll try to get it to them.

My $15/mo. basic AT&T POTS line with the 20 year old princess phone has been a lifesaver the past 3 days. I've been able to call everywhere locally with no problem.

-L

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:52:01 EDT

KeysCapt : See this post: »Re: Yikes it's Ike

You might try getting in touch with that member.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 13:46:43 EDT

wth :

»hcnonline.com/humble_observer/front/

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 12:59:14 EDT

anon : Could someone/ anyone please give me any info you may have on the Humble, Texas area. I have not been able to reach any family members that live there. I'm from the New Orleans area and would greatly appreciate any info you have.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 12:38:09 EDT

Lyserjic : Ike really tore things up here on the east/southeast side of Houston. The eye came right over us about 3:30AM on Saturday. Talk about surreal. One minute it sounds like hell on earth, the next, dead silence. Then the other side hits..

My neighborhood has power, water, gas. Houses on my block very minimal damage, mostly downed fences. No structural or roof damage. We got power back less than 24 hours after it went out. Comcast seems to have maintained their lines enough to keep us in Internet access. :) I take back everything bad I may have said about them.

I drove out awhile ago to try to see if Home Depot or Lowes was open, and whoa...it was a real eye opener. I'm very very lucky here. A good portion of the Pasadena & Deer Park, TX area looks like a war zone. From what I can see, I'm in a 10-block area that has power. Everything else for miles around is dead. Might have something to do with being in a newer subdivision with underground power.

I invested in steel storm shutters a few years ago, all my neighbors told me I was wasting my money. I'm pretty sure those shutters kept my big glass windows from blowing in when the winds along the northern eyewall were hitting us. There was about a 30 minute period before the eye crossed when the wind slamming like nothing I've ever seen.

FEMA has set up a "POD" location about a mile from my house. Judging by the traffic around the POD, they could use another location.

I had forgot my camera when I went out and saw something the folks at DSLR would appreciate. AT&T has deployed gas powered generators chained to their brand new U-Verse VRADS in areas where there is no power.

Never made it to the store, traffic is too screwed up. My measly little 4-foot section of fence that needs repair is nothing compared to what some of these people are going through. The fence can wait a few weeks.

-L

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 11:42:57 EDT

royhandy : I live in SW PA. We got some wind last night. My cat (who lives outdoors) was scared and wanted to come inside. It blew the downspout pipe off the side of my house so I'll have that to fix. Lots of branches down and some trees fell down in the woods behind our home.

I'm just glad we didn't get what we got from Ivan.
--
the wheels of your life are slowly falling off

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 08:06:27 EDT

tao : I would think if someone built a seven day loop of jet stream and water vapor it would show that Ike jumped from Texas to the eastern Midwest. There had to be some sort of energy translation, I believe we probably got more rain than OK or AR.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 07:38:37 EDT

yock : 50MPH winds with gusts up to 70 in southeast Ohio. Electricity service is spotty and you can't get gas anywhere, even where the station obviously has power. I saw power lines literally snapped at their midpoint between two poles, dangling onto the street below.

My employer has power, so I'm sitting here at work. I can't exactly say that I'm thrilled about that, I have work to do and family to care for, but I'm sure it makes them happy. Hot water is limited for us right now. We have a gas heater, but it uses electric to ignite the burner rather than a pilot light. So here I am in unironed clothes, unshowered, feeling generally disgusting, and utterly distracted.

How's everyone else?
--
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Lynch All Liars

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 06:58:19 EDT

DKS : And good riddance...

394
AWCN11 CWTO 151043
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA TORONTO AT 6:41 AM EDT MONDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2008.

..SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON SATURDAY PLUS MORE FROM IKE..

-------------------------------------------------------------
==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION==
THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND GAVE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY FROM A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM. RAINFALL WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND REGIONS NEIGHBOURING LAKE HURON EAST INTO THE GREATER TORONTO AREA. THE WARNING CRITERIA WAS EXCEEDED AT THE OBSERVATION SITES OF WINDSOR..CURUNNA..HARROW..GODERICH AND ELORA.

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE BROUGHT MORE RAIN TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FROM WINDSOR THROUGH COTTAGE COUNTRY TO RENFREW. WARNING THRESHOLDS WERE EXCEEDED AT SEVERAL SITES INCLUDING GODERICH..MOUNT FOREST..WIARTON..BANCROFT AND PARRY SOUND.

IN TOTAL..BOTH GODERICH AND CURUNNA RECEIVED CLOSE TO 120 MM OF RAIN FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO EVENTS.

THE FOLLOWING ARE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FIRST RAIN EPISODE FROM SATURDAY PLUS RAINFALL TOTALS FROM IKE ON SUNDAY.

-----------------------------------
LOCATION SATURDAY RAINFALL AMOUNT (PLUS IKE UP TO 6 AM)

WINDSOR 75.2 MM + 21 MM FROM IKE
CURUNNA (10 KM S SARNIA) ABOUT 100 MM + OVER 25 MM FROM IKE
HARROW 51.1 MM + 25 MM FROM IKE
RIDGETOWN 47.9 MM + 20 MM FROM IKE
ERIEAU 42.0 MM + 6 MM FROM IKE
SARNIA 38.5 MM + 46 MM FROM IKE
LONDON 25.6 MM + 10 MM FROM IKE
DELHI 34.5 MM + 14 MM FROM IKE
HAMILTON 20.8 MM + 8 MM FROM IKE
WELLAND 23.3 MM + 2 MM FROM IKE
GODERICH 61.0 MM + 54 MM FROM IKE
ELORA 51.2 MM + 12 MM FROM IKE
MOUNT FOREST 30.9 MM + 60 MM FROM IKE
WIARTON 63 MM FROM IKE
COLLINGWOOD 21 MM FROM IKE
KITCHENER 28.0 MM + 14 MM FROM IKE
EGBERT 34.5 MM + 43 MM FROM IKE
MARKHAM/BUTTONVILLE 30.0 MM + 13 MM FROM IKE
TORONTO CITY 21.0 MM + 5 MM FROM IKE
TORONTO PEARSON 17.6 MM + 8 MM FROM IKE
BARRIE 33 MM FROM IKE
ORILLIA 40 MM FROM IKE
PARRY SOUND 51 MM FROM IKE
MUSKOKA AIRPORT 41 MM FROM IKE
BANCROFT 50 MM FROM IKE
WHITNEY 42 MM FROM IKE
PETAWAWA 33 MM FROM IKE

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY CONTAINS THE OBSERVATIONS AT THE TIME OF BROADCAST AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL AND FINAL REPORT OF THE WEATHER EVENTS OR THE HIGH IMPACT EVENTS ATTRIBUTED TO THE WEATHER EVENTS.

END/ASHTON/RODGERS
--
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 06:56:47 EDT

DKS : Good bye, Ike...

WOCN31 CWHX 141800
Post-tropical storm ike information statement issued by the
Canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 2.00 PM EDT
Sunday 14 September 2008.

This is the final statment planned from the chc on this system.

...Remnants of ike now transformed into strong post-tropical
Low..Forecast to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to eastern
Canada...

1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion

At 2.00 PM EDT..Post-tropical storm ike was located near
Latitude 40.2 N and longitude 86.9 W..About 225 NM or 417 km
southwest of Windsor Ontario. Maximum sustained winds are estimated
At 40 knots..74 km/h..With some local gusts to 55 knots..100 km/h
Central pressure is 988 MB. Ike is moving northeast near 50 knots..
92 km/h.

2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength

Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
EDT MB kts kmh
Sep 14 2.00 PM 40.2N 86.9W 988 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 14 8.00 PM 43.9N 79.6W 990 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 15 2.00 AM 46.6N 73.4W 989 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 15 8.00 AM 49.4N 67.6W 985 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 15 2.00 PM 51.5N 62.1W 983 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 15 8.00 PM 53.6N 56.8W 982 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 16 2.00 AM 55.7N 52.3W 980 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 16 8.00 AM 57.7N 47.7W 978 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 16 2.00 PM 59.8N 43.6W 976 50 92 post-tropical
Sep 16 8.00 PM 62.1N 39.9W 975 55 102 post-tropical
Sep 17 2.00 AM 64.4N 36.2W 975 55 102 post-tropical

3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary

Synoptic description:
The centre of the low associated with the ramnants of hurricane ike
are forecast to merge/evolve into a deep and elongated low pressure
system over Québec and Ontario tonight. The large weather system will
then slide north of New Brunswick and into southeast Labrador on
Monday.

Weather summary:
An elongated zone of heavy rainfall will occur along the northern
portion of the track of this this weather system (see centre track
At »www.Ns.Ec.Gc.Ca/weather/hurrican···nt6.Html. South
Of the track warm and gusty south to southwest winds will occur. Also
some gusty west to northwest winds will occur just behind the passage
of the centre of the low. Rainfall amounts of 40 to 80 mm are
forecast along the axis of heaviest rainfall extending from Lake
Huron clear on through to southern Labrador. There is a potential for
local amounts to reach 100 mm in Ontario/Québec. General wind gusts
to 60 km/h are expected with some localities possibly experiencing
80 km/h gusts from Ontario to Newfoundland.

Warning summary:
Rainfall warnings are in effect or will soon be in effect for many
Areas north of the storm track..See local weather forecasts for
Details. Additionally..Some wind warnings may be required for certain
areas where southerly winds are enhanced by terrain or exposure.

4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Strong to gale force winds near and south of the strom track are
Expected from Lake Erie..Up the St Lawrence river and across to
northern Newfoundland waters including most of the Maritimes
Marine district. Some gale warnings have been posted..See local
forecasts for details. Seas are forecast to build to near 5 metres
In the northeast gulf of st. Lawrence.

5. Technical discussion

A. Analysis
Satellite and radar have shown a rapid case of extratropical
transition over the central U.S. with most of the heaviest rain now
Skewed to the northwest of the remnant low..Over southern Lake
Michigan and Lake Huron.

B. Prognostic
Primary point to make here is that we have a post-tropical storm
With some enhanced convection due to its tropical history. The models
Have been intializing the low too weak by 5 to 8 MB..But are coming
in line with reality. All numerical guidance predicts a prominant
frontal trough evolution over eastern Canada. All regional weather
centres are now handling the system as a strong extratropical low
And frontal trough.

C. Public weather
Described above.

D. Marine weather
Although there are varying takes on numerical solutions for this
System..The weather/warning summary above reflects the concensus of
model solutions and meteorological reasoning.

This is the final planned message on post-tropical storm ike from the
canadian hurricane centre.

End fogarty
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 22:05:42 EDT

Vchat20 : Yeah. Up in Northeast Ohio here we're getting hammered with major gusts from what remains of Ike that passed through. No rain thankfully on this side, but enough wind to cause some damage in this area over the past couple hours.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 16:33:47 EDT

tao : This storm is unusual for us. Here is a radar loop from yesterday showing the moisture from Ike pulled up to Michigan and the Midwest. »www.intellicast.com/National/Rad···day.aspx

And alas, Fall is here, note the Montana snow in that loop.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:52:47 EDT

KeysCapt : Wow. I confess that once Ike passed through the Houston area, I tended to stop concentrating on it and focused on the damage it left behind. I suspect others did too. Thanks for the reminder ... it certainly is a significant storm, even after all that distance!

[att=1]

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 15:40:38 EDT

tao : Ike continues to cause problems. Here in Michigan, basements are flooding and rivers are certain to reach flood stage yet today, or tonight. We have recieved around 6 inches of rain in Lansing, MI and it is still raining hard. 1532 EDT and wind is picking up, so Ike is just now approaching. After Michigan Ike heads ENE and out into the Atlantic. Heaviest 2 day rain totals are found between Kalamazoo and Ann Arbor, tracking a NNE line.

Don't mean to suggest this storm is still a hurricane or a tropical storm, but the rain totals here are significant and the rain is from that hurricane.

[ATT=1]
--
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:50:00 EDT

McSummation : There are 2 big issues when the wind blows hard:
1) The lines blow together, pop, snap, pow - out goes a fuse on the line. After the wind quits, it's usually just a matter of replacing blown fuses.
2) Tree limbs (and whole trees) blow into the lines pulling them down and, many times, snapping the poles off too. Trees have to be removed, poles replaced, wires restrung, transformers replaced, etc.

There are also reports that the main transmission lines have had problems. If they've lost towers, they'll have to be replaced, as well as the wires on them. However, since the power grid is largely cross connected, they can usually get power on one transmission line while the broken one is repaired.

Sometimes the wires are stretched so much they have to be retightened.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:30:24 EDT

Axilla : I know on the hurricane nets i was listening to all of the things the mentioned were happening. Lines/poles down and transformers blowing.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:17:24 EDT

sailor : Thanks for that link and when it says crews are restoring power what exactly are they doing to restore power?...What caused the power loss in the first place? Poles being blown down, lines being blown down, transformers shorting out on poles? In a nutshell, what is the major reason power is lost?

So for those of you in the affected area, what do you see why you have no power?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 13:04:04 EDT

Telly Boot : Houston under overnight curfew until power and water are restored:
»www.chron.com/
Another report has Ike as likely to be the third most expensive storm in US history:
"Early estimates of the cost of the storm to insurance companies put Ike's damage at between $8-18bn. Flood damage and uninsured losses would likely push that total much higher, placing Ike in the top three costliest storms in US history."
--
Dawn,n,The time when men of reason go to bed. (Ambrose Bierce.)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 12:51:16 EDT

DKS : It's 22C with a Humidex of 30C. Hot and steamy. We have received about .5" of rain and it's is now simply pouring.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 12:49:27 EDT

DKS : WOCN31 CWHX 141300 CCA
CORRECTED POST-TROPICAL STORM IKE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM EDT SUNDAY
14 SEPTEMBER 2008.

CORRECTION TO 8AM BULLETIN: STRONG WIND WARNINGS (NOT GALES AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED) FOR WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER REGION..MAY BE UPGRADED TO GALES
LATER..CONSULT REGIONAL OFFICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2.00 PM EDT

...REMNANTS OF IKE NOW RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL
STORM..HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
TODAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 8.00 AM EDT... POST-TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
37.3 N AND LONGITUDE 91.2 W... ABOUT 145 NAUTICAL MILES OR 270 KM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF MEMPHIS TENNESSEE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS... 56 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 987 MB.
IKE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 49 KNOTS... 91 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
EDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 14 8.00 AM 37.3N 91.2W 987 30 56 TRANSITIONING
SEP 14 2.00 PM 40.2N 86.1W 991 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 14 8.00 PM 44.0N 79.1W 993 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 2.00 AM 46.6N 73.4W 989 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 8.00 AM 49.4N 67.6W 985 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 2.00 PM 51.5N 62.1W 983 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 8.00 PM 53.6N 56.8W 982 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 2.00 AM 55.7N 52.3W 981 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 8.00 AM 57.7N 47.7W 980 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 2.00 PM 59.8N 43.6W 976 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 8.00 PM 62.1N 39.9W 972 55 102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTRIBUTE 50 TO 100 MM RAINFALL NORTH OF
THE LOW'S TRACK. AS A RESULT ONTARIO AND QUÉBEC HAVE POSTED RAINFALL
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION AREA ENTERS LABRADOR.. WARNINGS ARE
HELD OFF BUT FORECAST VALUES APPROACH WARNING CRITERIA. SNOW BECOMES
AN ISSUE FOR NORTHERN LABRADOR. THE STORM WILL BE COMPLETELY NON-
TROPICAL BY THEN.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
STRONG WIND WARNINGS (UP TO 30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
POST-TROPICAL LOW ARE POSTED FROM LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE THROUGH TO
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
NORTHERN HALVES OF THE MARTIMES AND NEWFOUNDLAND WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE/RADAR SIGNATURES THIS MORNING SHOWING IKE UNDERGOING RAPID
ET BUT MAINTAIN DECENTLY LOW SURFACE PRESSURES - INDEED A SIGN OF ET
SINCE PURELY TROPICAL SYSTEMS WOULD RARELY MAINTAIN 987 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE 24 HOURS AFTER CONTINENTAL LANDFALL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
ALL MODELS SHOWED A RADICAL BUT REASONABLE CHANGE IN THE HANDLING
OF IKE'S REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A MORE NORTHERLY AND
DEEPER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST. A LEADING LOW PRESSURE CENTRE..LOCATED
OVER THE SUDBURY REGION OF ONTARIO AT FORECAST TIME COMPLICATED THE
FORECAST SCENARIO A BIT..BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE INTRODUCTION
OF DEEP AND INHERENTLY UNSTABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE FULL OF LATENT HEAT
THAT IS ENTERING A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM IS THE REASON FOR
INCREASING EXTRATROPICAL-TYPE DEVELOPMENT..HENCE A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK AND DEEPER LOW PRESSURE FORECAST IS APPROPRIATE.

THEREFORE CMC..CHC..AND OTHER FORECAST CENTRES ACCEPT THE GEM
SOLUTION WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LOW COULD EVEN BE DEEPER
THAN THE MODEL EXPLICITLY SHOWS.

NO WIND RADII TABLE IS BEING PREPARED BECAUSE THE STORM WILL NOT BE
INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT RATHER A DEEPENING
EXTRA- (OR POST-) TROPICAL SYSTEM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
CANADIAN AND AMERICAN OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
AT LEAST A 50 MM RAINFALL FROM REMNANTS OF IKE. BASED ON EXPERIENCE
FROM THESE SORT OF EVOLVING POST-TROPICAL SYSTEMS..50 TO 100 MM IS AN
APPROPRIATE FORECAST FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

D. MARINE WEATHER
PRIMARY WIND TIMING/STRUCTURE GUIDANCE IS TO BE FROM THE GEM REG
MODEL WITH LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS THAN PREDICTED SOUTH OF THE
TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW.

END CAMPBELL/FOGARTY
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 08:47:08 EDT

KeysCapt :

said by DKS :

The NY Times has an excellent map with storm surge levels linked to pictures here.

What's a six-letter word beginning with S using the letters TUPI ending in D?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 07:39:50 EDT

DKS :

said by fl407 :

The news finally gets their story to sensationalize about...

The NY Times has an excellent map with storm surge levels linked to pictures here.
--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 06:01:44 EDT

KeysCapt : Watching the local Houston coverage during the preparations and eventual arrival of Ike, there was frequent warning that the storm was a "Cat 2 almost 3" hurricane with respect to winds, but that with respect to the surge it was Cat 4. That would seem to lend itself to the suggestion that the Saffir-Simpson needs revision or a new system devised.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 02:32:06 EDT

Budster :

said by imtim83 :

Looks like the NHC was wrong a bigger lower category storm does not mean even a huge storm surge. Hurricane Ike had nothing on Hurricane Katrina. Ike never gained strength of CAT 5 status a little while before landfall like Hurricane Katrina then hit with that CAT 5 storm surge. Such a huge difference.

Hurricane Katrina had the combination of a very powerful wind storm and a unbeatable storm surge! Yes Hurricane Katrina could of been worst by hitting land as a CAT. 5 but one day that will happen with the size of a storm as Katrina or larger hitting as a CAT. 5

This maybe a good topic to talk about outside of this thread and I see I'm not the only one with believe that the Saffir-Simpson Scale needs to be revamped. Hurricane Ike and Katrina set prime examples. That's not to exclude other powerful storms such as Frances, Rita, Gustav and Ivan.
All of these storms I mentioned exceeded the destruction of what their category expectations. These storms were not upcoming strengthening systems, these were very developed systems that held sustained wind speeds of 150mph or better at one time or another. Just because Katrina was downgraded to a cat 3 before landfall didn't knock down the storm surges or the 150ft waves it produced. Neither did it knock down Ike's Hurricane wind field that was over 120 miles from the center.
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 14 Sep 2008 02:00:36 EDT

fl407 : The news finally gets their story to sensationalize about...

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 23:29:53 EDT

imtim83 :

said by sailor :

It must have irked you when news media was calling Gustav "The Storm of The Century" and "The Mother of All Storms" while it was still out to sea.

No because I knew it wouldn't be as bad as Hurricane Katrina and it was nowhere near of size of it.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 22:02:07 EDT

ghostpainter :

TROPICAL STORM IKE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.00 PM EDT SATURDAY
13 SEPTEMBER 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2.00 AM EDT

... IKE'S RAIN TO HIT ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 8.00 PM EDT... TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
33.7 N AND LONGITUDE 94.5 W... ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES OR 135 KM
NORTH NORTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 980 MB.
IKE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS... 35 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
EDT MB KTS KMH
SEP 13 8.00 PM 33.7N 94.5W 980 40 74 TRANSITIONING
SEP 14 8.00 AM 37.6N 89.2W 988 30 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 14 8.00 PM 42.1N 80.2W 990 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 8.00 AM 46.5N 69.2W 990 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 15 8.00 PM 50.9N 57.3W 988 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 16 8.00 AM 56.1N 46.3W 983 45 83 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL STORM IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS
IT PASSES THROUGH OR NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY
... LIKELY BEGINNING LATER IN THE DAY. DESPITE IT BEING IN ITS
POST-TROPICAL STAGE IT WILL RETAIN SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
DUMP SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AS IT PASSES. IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY
TO GIVE SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS BUT
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS TYPE OF WEATHER SYSTEM TYPICALLY
DELIVERS 50 TO 100 MM OF RAIN.

THE ONTARIO STORM PREDICTION CENTRE HAS ALREADY SERVED NOTICE THAT
THE COMBINED RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND ... FROM A FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY
AND IKE ON SUNDAY ... COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 150 TO 200 MM
IN SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. ACCORDINGLY RAINFALL
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE REGIONAL
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THAT CENTRE.

BLUSTERY WINDS GUSTING TO 60 TO 70 KM/H MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERNMOST
PORTIONS OF ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE-FORCE GUSTS TO 70 OR 80 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. HOWEVER THE HIGHEST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ITS TRACK. ACCORDINGLY WARNINGS HAVE NOT
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE TRACK DRIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH
THEN THESE HIGHER GUSTS BECOME MORE LIKELY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A DENSE OBSERVATION NETWORK.

B. PROGNOSTIC
NHC PACKAGE ABOUT 6HRS SLOWER AND A DEGREE LAT FARTHER NORTH AS IT
PASSES LAKE ERIE ... NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCE TO WARRANT CHANGING
OUR PREVIOUS SINCE EXACT LOCATION WILL COME DOWN TO THE ONSET OF
RAPID ACCELERATION ONCE IT GETS PICKED UP IN THE SCREAMING
SOUTHWESTERLIES UPSTAIRS. ACCORDINGLY WE MAINTAIN OUR PREVIOUS
TRACK PACKAGE WHICH WAS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND THE TWO CDN
MODELS.

AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS MESSAGE.. THE FSU CPS DIAGRAMS INDICATE A
RAPID TRANSITION ... WITH COMPLETION BY 14/12Z AT THE LATEST ON THE
GFS. HWRF SUGGESTS INSTANT TRANSITION OCCURING AT THIS TIME AS
THE STORM CENTRE DEPARTS TEXAS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
WE EXPECT A 45 KT TRANSLATION SPEED AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF ONTARIO..
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN AMOUNTS REMAINING AROUND 50 TO 60. HOWEVER
TWO CAVEATS LEAD US TO KEEP MENTION OF 100 MM. THE FIRST IS THAT
IKE IS A LARGE STORM. THE SECOND IS OUR MEMORY OF HANNA LAST
WEEKEND WHEN THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE ABOUT TWICE WHAT THE SIMPLE
RULE OF THUMB WOULD INDICATE. THE QPFS WERE UNDERDONE AT THAT TIME
AND WE NEED TO LEAVE OPEN THE SAME POSSIBILITY WITH IKE. WHEN
ADDING TO THAT THE ANTECEDENT CONDITION THAT IS SURE TO EXIST BY
TOMORROW ... NAMELY THE HEAVY RAIN FROM TODAY ... THIS MAKES FOR A
BAD COMBINATION SHOULD SOME LOCATIONS GET HIT WITH BOTH RAIN EVENTS.
THE 12Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE 50 TO 100 MM IDEA.

D. MARINE WEATHER
WHILE WE HOLD THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH
WILL LOOK MOSTLY BAROCLINIC.. IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO BE PREPARED FOR
MARGINAL GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN-MOST GREAT LAKES ... ESPECIALLY
SINCE RAPID TRANSLATION OF NEARLY 45 KTS WILL BOOST THE
ISALLOBARICS. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ... ALTHOUGH
THE TRACK OPTIMISTICALLY SUGGESTS HIGHER GUSTS SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE MARTIMES THE BAROCLINIC
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SEE IT STRENGTHENING TO A GALE SYSTEM AGAIN...
BUT NOT UNTIL MONDAY.

END BOWYER/CAMPBELL

--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 22:00:18 EDT

sailor : It must have irked you when news media was calling Gustav "The Storm of The Century" and "The Mother of All Storms" while it was still out to sea.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:56:40 EDT

imtim83 : I know but you have to remember too Hurricane Katrina was a very powerful CAT 5 at 175 mph sustain winds with up to 200 mpg + gusts in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. So it had the power of a CAT 5 storm surge when it hit because that takes a little while to go down once built up. Hurricane Katrina was no bare minimum CAT 5 hurricane. It meant real business. On top of that it was huge.

Hurricane Katrina had everything going for it. I don't think I have seen a more perfect setup when it was going to make landfall soon. Katrina didn't race through the Gulf of Mexico either but didn't snail along either.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:52:12 EDT

imtim83 :

said by jabarnut :

said by imtim83 :

I don't see Hurricane Ike causing more damage than Hurricane Katrina. No way. More homes and businesses flooded during Hurricane Katrina. A lot more with water up to their rooftops as well....

Yes, that's true.
I must say though, I've been following this thread with interest and I find this "love affair" you have with "Katrina" to be quite amusing.

You're right...New Orleans was devastated with Katrina.

Of course, the fact that the place is below sea level (gee...that was a smart move to build a city below sea level), :hmm: they also had substandard levees (which, by the way, they had known about for many years, but dragged their feet as far as fixing that mess...until now that is).

As reports continue to come in concerning Ike, it may end up being among the top 5 Hurricanes as far as damage and cost.

Any Hurricane that can cause loss of life and property should never be taken lightly.
This isn't a competition like: "Ha! My Hurricane beat your hurricane", but rather the fact that many peoples lives are turned upside down now.

I assure you that the many people who have lost their homes (and perhaps some of their loved ones), couldn't care less which of the two Hurricanes caused more damage.

The fact is, a lot of damage was caused, and that's always sad.

I am glad you think that. Yes this hurricane will be in the top 5 list of causing the most damage but it won't beat Hurricane Katrina. What I am saying it could of been far worst but it wasn't. The storm surge of 20 to 25 feet never happen.

I could same the same for people along the Texas coast you shouldn't build that close to the coast if you don't want your lives destroyed when a huge hurricane comes along. Any building along the coast of water will always get damaged or destoryed very badly by a storm surge it is just how it works.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:28:01 EDT

sailor :

said by jabarnut :

they also had substandard levees (which, by the way, they had known about for many years, but dragged their feet as far as fixing that mess...until now that is).

Good to see you mention the substandard levees because while Katrina would have caused flooding in New Orleans, it was the poorly constructed levees which led to such massive flooding which in turn resulted in a large amount of deaths. :(

NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 20 -- Louisiana's top hurricane experts have rejected the official explanations for the floodwall collapses that inundated much of New Orleans, concluding that Hurricane Katrina's storm surges were much smaller than authorities have suggested and that the city's flood- protection system should have kept most of the city dry.

The Army Corps of Engineers has said that Katrina was just too massive for a system that was not intended to protect the city from a storm greater than a Category 3 hurricane, and that the floodwall failures near Lake Pontchartrain were caused by extraordinary surges that overtopped the walls.

But with the help of complex computer models and stark visual evidence, scientists and engineers at Louisiana State University's Hurricane Center have concluded that Katrina's surges did not come close to overtopping those barriers. That would make faulty design, inadequate construction or some combination of the two the likely cause of the breaching of the floodwalls along the 17th Street and London Avenue canals -- and the flooding of most of New Orleans.

»www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co···_pf.html

"The task force study concluded that improper materials were used to build some levees, many levees and walls were built too low, sinking ground beneath the levees added to their improper heights, and that some floodwalls were designed incorrectly for the weak soils in which they were built."

»www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf···zin.html

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:10:44 EDT

jabarnut :

Yes, that's true.
I must say though, I've been following this thread with interest and I find this "love affair" you seem to have with "Katrina" to be quite amusing.

You're right...New Orleans was devastated with Katrina.

Of course, beside the fact that the place is below sea level (gee...that was a smart move to build a city below sea level), :hmm: they also had substandard levees (which, by the way, they had known about for many years, but dragged their feet as far as fixing that mess...until now that is).

As reports continue to come in concerning Ike, it may end up being among the top 5 Hurricanes as far as damage and cost.

Any Hurricane that can cause loss of life and property should never be taken lightly.
This isn't a competition like: "Ha! My Hurricane beat your hurricane", but rather the fact that many peoples lives are turned upside down now.

I assure you that the many people who have lost their homes and businesses (and perhaps some of their loved ones), couldn't care less which of the two Hurricanes caused more damage.

The fact is, a lot of damage was caused, and that's always sad.
--
I had a life once.....now I have a Computer and a Modem.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:48:55 EDT

imtim83 : I don't see Hurricane Ike causing more damage than Hurricane Katrina. No way. More homes and businesses flooded during Hurricane Katrina. A lot more with water up to their rooftops as well.

You have to remember water damage will always be worst here too because it took well over 2 to 3 weeks for all the water to go down sense New Orleans is a huge bowl.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:44:22 EDT

imtim83 :

said by ghostpainter :

Very true...We dont see the roof top devastation that we saw in Katrina. What I am writing though that Ike was twice as big as Katrina and its impact from flooding and overall destruction could be greater than Katrina's simply because of its size where it is going, especially Chicago.

Even as a TS or TD as it moves over those areas, the winds will impact the high rises and increase in speed as the wind moves down the streets. Same thing that has happened in Houston.

Yeah a lot of the windows in Houston were blown out just like in New Orleans but I believe New Orleans had faster wind speeds than Houston during Hurricane Katrina.

Those tall buildings had about CAT. 3 to upwards of CAT. 4 winds maybe on the very top floors.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:40:51 EDT

ghostpainter : Very true...We dont see the roof top devastation that we saw in Katrina. What I am writing though that Ike was twice as big as Katrina and its impact from flooding and overall destruction could be greater than Katrina's simply because of its size where it is going, especially Chicago.

Even as a TS or TD as it moves over those areas, the winds will impact the high rises and increase in speed as the wind moves down the streets. Same thing that has happened in Houston.
--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:38:29 EDT

imtim83 : Hurricane Katrina as well took out whole huge interstate bridges. I have never seen this ever happen during any hurricane. Ok during Hurricane Opal it took out a section of a interstate bridge but that was only 1 section.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:32:23 EDT

imtim83 :

said by ghostpainter :

I dont know how many people watched FOX yesterday but they had Gerardo and several others on the seawall on Galveston Island and they were showing places like Hooters and that long pier with several restaurants on it.

That is all gone, even most of the pylons are gone. And downtown Houston is closed because of several buildings having their windows blown out, if fact several hundred windows, furniture and computers are littering the streets of Houston.

I think we will find as the days go on the Ike was every bit as bad as Katrina. The coast Guard has rescued over 300 residents and will do so till it gets dark.

I didn't watch fox news much because I hate fox but I did see that on other stations. Yeah the Hooters is totally gone. Many other businesses as well but I expected this. Anything along the coast with such a huge storm surge going on for so many miles will not stay standed. Maybe a few but they won't be able to be saved.

I disagree that it will be as bit as bad as Katrina as the days go on because you didn't have water come up to the roof or over the roof of houses and businesses. I know you didn't have this everywhere in Hurricane Katrina either but a lot of places you did. The flooding up the roof types was very widespread in Hurricane Katrina. You just don't see that type of flooding very much.

Hurricane Ike never had the type of power Hurricane Katrina had. Hurricane Katrina's storm surge alone beat Hurricane Camilles storm surge easily. Hurricane Ike never gained CAT. 5 strength in the middle of the gulf like Hurricane Katrina did. Hurricane Katrina was a very powerful CAT. 5 hurricane in the middle of the gulf of mexico at 175 mph sustain winds and well over 200 mph gusts. That kind of wind carries a whole lot of water plus with Hurricane Katrina being so big helped as well. The kind of storm Hurricane Katrina became and the size of it is as close to the perfect storm you will get in the Gulf of Mexico. Everything lined up just about perfectly.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:20:45 EDT

ghostpainter : I dont know how many people watched FOX yesterday but they had Gerardo and several others on the seawall on Galveston Island and they were showing places like Hooters and that long pier with several restaurants on it.

That is all gone, even most of the pylons are gone. And downtown Houston is closed because of several buildings having their windows blown out, if fact several hundred windows, furniture and computers are littering the streets of Houston.

I think we will find as the days go on the Ike was every bit as bad as Katrina. The coast Guard has rescued over 300 residents and will do so till it gets dark.
--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 19:17:45 EDT

imtim83 : Looks like the NHC was wrong a bigger lower category storm does not mean even a huge storm surge. Hurricane Ike had nothing on Hurricane Katrina. Ike never gained strength of CAT 5 status a little while before landfall like Hurricane Katrina then hit with that CAT 5 storm surge. Such a huge difference.

Hurricane Katrina had the combination of a very powerful wind storm and a unbeatable storm surge! Yes Hurricane Katrina could of been worst by hitting land as a CAT. 5 but one day that will happen with the size of a storm as Katrina or larger hitting as a CAT. 5

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 18:13:27 EDT

imtim83 :

said by digitalfutur :

Preliminary reports indicate that the storm surge of 14 feet was less than half the doomsday predictions.

Yep it wasn't as bad as it could of been. If it would of went a little bit more south of where it hit it may have been a lot worst.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 16:20:15 EDT

ghostpainter : FOX and CNN are showing areas of Louisiana and areas around Galveston Bay that are under water. What I was reporting was a estimated 20 foot storm surge on top of a abnormal high tide and 10 to 12 foot seas.

There are an estimated 125,000 flooded homes and businesses in the two states.

Flood warnings have been issued for much of Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma long before Ike became an issue from a tropical system in the Southwestern US.

Being watched is the merger between Ike and the frontal boundary expected to take place tonight. When this does moisture associated with Ike will be squeezed out rapidly creating large areas of unusually heavy rainfall that may create flash flooding issues from rapidly rising waters. Flooding kills more people than the winds, severe weather and tornadoes expected.

There are serious probabilities that conditions may be right for the development of large tornadoes when the front and the remains of Ike begin to merge. At present the risk assessment is around 15% but this is an unusual situation for the various systems involved.

Residents should continue to monitor their forecasts anywhere in the Southern Plains for the severe weather potential and flooding.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 15:06:27 EDT

lilhurricane : Better to be prepared than unprepared.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 15:05:16 EDT

digitalfutur : Preliminary reports indicate that the storm surge of 14 feet was less than half the doomsday predictions.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 11:14:36 EDT

VegasMan : Related to the weather statement from Toronto. Here in the Chicago area we are in the same path as what they are calling for and we are expecting up to 8 inches of rain by the time Ike passes by us tomorrow night. I would bet that we have seen at least half of that since 3:30am. Our pond out back is at the highest level it has ever been in the last 7 years that I've lived here.
--
In need of a Vegas vacation.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 10:05:34 EDT

wxboss :

said by imtim83 :

Hearing reports of 911 getting calls of people asking for help in their 2 story beach home because the water is waist deep on the second floor as the eye wall was passing by.

I believe this was from Clear Lake, TX

This is why people need to take evacuation orders seriously. If officials tell you to go...GO!
--
"A study in the Washington Post says that women have better verbal skills
than men. I just want to say to the authors of that study: Duh."
--Conan O'Brien

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 08:36:15 EDT

DKS : And Ike will pick up speed...

quote:
926
WOCN11 CWTO 131226
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ONTARIO REGION. 8:26 AM EDT SATURDAY
13 SEPTEMBER 2008.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR..
CITY OF TORONTO
WINDSOR - ESSEX - CHATHAM-KENT
SARNIA - LAMBTON
ELGIN
LONDON - MIDDLESEX
SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK
DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND
OXFORD - BRANT
NIAGARA
CITY OF HAMILTON
HALTON - PEEL
YORK - DURHAM
HURON - PERTH
WATERLOO - WELLINGTON
DUFFERIN - INNISFIL
GREY - BRUCE
BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND
BELLEVILLE - QUINTE - NORTHUMBERLAND
KINGSTON - PRINCE EDWARD
PETERBOROUGH - KAWARTHA LAKES
STIRLING - TWEED - SOUTH FRONTENAC
BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK
BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE
CITY OF OTTAWA
GATINEAU
PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
CORNWALL - MORRISBURG
SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE
PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
HALIBURTON
RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
ALGONQUIN
BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

..DENSE FOG IN SOME LOCALES LIFTING LATER THIS MORNING..

..REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE THREATEN SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON SUNDAY PRECEDED BY HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY..

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARKED BY TWO MAIN RAINFALL EPISODES. THE FIRST WILL BE DUE TO A STALLED FRONT WHICH WILL GIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS MANY REGIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IT WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND LATER IN THE DAY FOR THE GREATER TORONTO AREA NORTH INTO COTTAGE COUNTRY. A RAINFALL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST WHERE UPWARDS OF 40 TO 70 MILLIMETRES IS LIKELY BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY..IT IS LIKELY THAT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS OUT OF MISSOURI AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRE OF IKE'S TRACK MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT..HEAVY RAIN IS QUITE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO THE NORTH OF IKE'S CENTRE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TYPICALLY REACH 50 TO LOCALLY 100 MILLIMETRES IN THESE SITUATIONS WHERE HURRICANE REMNANTS AFFECT THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND TOWARDS EVENING FARTHER EAST. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO TODAY'S RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL WARNING MAY VERY WELL BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MANY OTHER REGIONS AS THE TRACK OF IKE BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

THE RAIN SHOULD END LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS AS THE REMNANTS OF IKE MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION MAY ALSO BE FOUND BY CONSULTING THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECAST. THE NEXT PUBLIC FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM.

END/ASHTON/GR

--
Need-based health care not greed-based health care.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 07:15:52 EDT

SmokChsr : Now the back side of the storm has made it in, Ike is just NE of Huston. The winds across the bay are now out of the SW which will be pushing the high water away from the West side of the bay towards the NE side of the Bay. I would guess those that thought they made it through on that side are now finding out Ike wasn't done just yet.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 04:11:30 EDT

imtim83 : Hearing reports of 911 getting calls of people asking for help in their 2 story beach home because the water is waist deep on the second floor as the eye wall was passing by.

I believe this was from Clear Lake, TX

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 03:59:38 EDT

imtim83 :

said by ghostpainter :

[att=1,l]This system also has the potential to become a tropical system.

6 ft of water in Galveston country courthouse. Not sure how high that building is but that seems like a good amount of water in that building. Does anyone know how high the courthouse is there? Is it on the higher ground in Galveston or lower ground?

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
204 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM HURRICANE GALVESTON 29.23N 94.89W
09/13/2008 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

6 FT OF WATER IN THE DOWNTOWN GALVESTON COUNTY
COURTHOUSE

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 03:31:19 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by paul myers :

Electricity just went out, we are now on generator power.

I imagine since you are posting you still have weather access, and you probably know the area just East of Lake Charles is getting the outer band which (going by the warnings) is producing many tornadoes.
The Eye has entered Galveston Bay and continues to shrink a bit. The area just to the East of the bay over into La appears to be catching the brunt of the wind storm.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 02:15:19 EDT

paul myers : Electricity just went out, we are now on generator power.
--
Proud member of the Cajun Crunch Team

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:28:38 EDT

Telly Boot : IR Loop re- the link posted by Justin:
»radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php···loop=yes
--
Dawn,n,The time when men of reason go to bed. (Ambrose Bierce.)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 01:07:19 EDT

ghostpainter : Ike has wobbled to the right or north by about 10 miles in the last ten minutes, 10:58PM PST. Ike will begin to come ashore in the next 1/2 hour.

Stay safe all of you who chose to ride this monster out.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 00:30:41 EDT

justin : Makes houston look so small..

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 00:19:42 EDT

justin : Interesting:

»hcoem.houstontranstar.org/txdot/

you can plot the wind in houston ..

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 23:48:56 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by ghostpainter :

The eye wall is now 70 miles away from Galveston. Eye wall is now clear as Ike gains strength.

Not to mention the eye is getting smaller, which will increase the winds around it!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 23:16:45 EDT

ghostpainter : The eye wall is now 70 miles away from Galveston. Eye wall is now clear as Ike gains strength.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 23:06:36 EDT

wilbilt :

said by A predictor :

Well guys im sure my electricity will be going off soon because my wind meters are clocking 60 mph sustain winds and im curently in my residence in Crystal Beach So this should be one of my last post for maybe weeks. You can say theres about 3 ft of water already under my home because of this extraordinary storm surge.... but it still 17 ft left until it reaches my house. Lets hope for the worse not to happen.

Well, I guess you aren't going to get out now. Best of luck.

There is always the attic.
--
We were taking a vote when the ground came up and hit us.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 23:06:07 EDT

nirvansk815 : It just me or does it seem like Ike has stalled a little? Look at the radar loop.
--
There's so much to be thankful for...How can anyone be sad?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 22:59:53 EDT

anon : Well guys im sure my electricity will be going off soon because my wind meters are clocking 60 mph sustain winds and im curently in my residence in Crystal Beach So this should be one of my last post for maybe weeks. You can say theres about 3 ft of water already under my home because of this extraordinary storm surge.... but it still 17 ft left until it reaches my house. Lets hope for the worse not to happen.

Re: Hurricane Ike Tornado Warnings for Lake Charles

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 19:29:03 EDT

ghostpainter : BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES CARENCRO...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...
NORTHEASTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 617 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUNSET TO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CARENCRO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
NORTH OF CHURCH POINT TO BREAUX BRIDGE...MOVING NORTH AT 18 MPH.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SUNSET BY 635 PM CDT...
GRAND COTEAU BY 640 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE...SEEK
SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND
ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 19:27:59 EDT

Cheese :

said by Budster :

said by imtim83 :

Hurricane Ike will not be even a Cat. 3 when making landfall! I knew it could not beat Hurricane Katrina! Nothing can. Sure Ike can cause a lot of storm surge flooding but nothing like Hurricane Katrina did with destroying whole bridges and levees. I doubt the seawall in Texas will break because Hurricane Ike will only be a Cat. 2 at landfall now if it was a Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 sure maybe.

Take that Hurricane Ike you can't live up to Hurricane Katrina!

WTH? :/

Guess he was wrong eh! :o

Doh, thought 110 was Cat 3, it's 111, but close enough!

Be safe people who stayed!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 19:24:42 EDT

ghostpainter : Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 6:00 PM CDT on September 12, 2008

...Ike strengthens some as it bears down on Galveston Island and the
Upper Texas coast...
...Rising water levels and battering waves affecting the area...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
north of Port Aransas Texas. Hurricane conditions are expected to
reach the coast in the warning area later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Port Aransas to
Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect
from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border...
including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 600 PM CDT...2300z...the center of very large Hurricane Ike was
located near latitude 28.2 north...longitude 93.8 west or about 100
miles...160 km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 105 miles
...170 km...south of Beaumont Texas.

Ike has been moving between the west-northwest and northwest near 13
mph...20 km/hr. A northwest motion is expected to continue tonight
with a turn toward the north expected on Saturday. On the forecast
track...the center of Ike will be very near the Upper Texas coast
by later this evening or early Saturday morning.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and reconnaissance aircraft
indicate Ike has become better organized...and maximum sustained
winds have now increased to near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a strong category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale and could reach the Texas coast as a category
three...major hurricane. Stronger winds...especially in stronger
gusts...are likely on high rise buildings.

Ike remains a very large hurricane and hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 120 miles...195 km...from the center...and tropical
storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...445 km.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 954 mb...28.17 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet...with near 25 feet
in some areas...above normal tides along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center of Ike makes landfall. The surge extends a greater than
usual distance from the center due to the large size of the
cyclone. Water levels have already risen by 7 to 9 feet above
normal along much of the northwestern Gulf Coast.

Do not venture outside in the eye. The strongest winds and highest
surge will likely occur near or just after the eye makes landfall.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over
eastern Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana...with isolated
amounts of 15 inches possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of southern
Louisiana and southeastern Texas.

Repeating the 600 PM CDT position...28.2 N...93.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...110 mph.
Minimum central pressure...954 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 800 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 19:18:31 EDT

grreyeyezz : GRLevel 3

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:59:43 EDT

imtim83 :

said by Budster :

WTH? :/

Hurricane Katrina was made for me. No other hurricane can give the same thing that Katrina did. It was the perfect Hurricane and setup or as close as it could get.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:32:37 EDT

paul myers :

said by lilhurricane :

said by paul myers :

..Our elevation is 24ft so we will be fine...

Good to hear. My thoughts are with you & yours.

We will all be fine. We raised all of her furniture and anything else that could be raised about 4ft off the floor. She had gotten 6~9" of water for RITA. This looks like she could have 2~3ft in her house. If that happens, my brother will have 1/2 to 1ft of water in his house which is next door to my mother. I talked to him about an hour ago and he said that they are just having a glass of wine and watching the water rise...
--
Proud member of the Cajun Crunch Team

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:25:28 EDT

lilhurricane :

said by paul myers :

..Our elevation is 24ft so we will be fine...

Good to hear. My thoughts are with you & yours.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:22:32 EDT

paul myers : She is staying at my niece's house. Jenn lives 2~3 miles farther into town and about 4ft higher. The NWS is calling for a record flood at 13ft. If that happens, 1/2 to 2/3 of Lake Charles will have water in it. We live in Moss Bluff which is on the other side of the river. Our elevation is 24ft so we will be fine...
--
Proud member of the Cajun Crunch Team

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:08:35 EDT

Budster :

WTH? :/
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:06:47 EDT

Budster : I have contact with my brother.. He's going to ride the storm out from his residence. Crosshairs mark his location
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 18:06:45 EDT

lilhurricane : Geez Paul.. is she staying there?

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:13:40 EDT

royhandy :

said by ghostpainter :

Thanks for wth for posting those surge impact maps. If the right front quadrant should hit the Houston shipping channel dead on the 35 foot storm surge would be felt in downtown Houston with downtown flooding. And they are worried about 120mph winds hitting the high rises in Houston.

And the Houston Chronicle mentioned that the police were unable to get some folks in the Storm's path to leave. They even had a comment from a woman who was leaving but her husband was staying. I hope he's smartened up since the story was written.

edit: I just read that 40% of the city of Galveston's population has decided not to evacuate.
--
the wheels of your life are slowly falling off

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:12:30 EDT

imtim83 : Hurricane Ike will not be even a Cat. 3 when making landfall! I knew it could not beat Hurricane Katrina! Nothing can. Sure Ike can cause a lot of storm surge flooding but nothing like Hurricane Katrina did with destroying whole bridges and levees. I doubt the seawall in Texas will break because Hurricane Ike will only be a Cat. 2 at landfall now if it was a Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 sure maybe.

Take that Hurricane Ike you can't live up to Hurricane Katrina!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:03:29 EDT

paul myers : As of 1300h local time the water was already up 5.5ft at my mom's house in south Lake Charles. She lives just off of the Calcasieu Ship Chanel about 30 Nautical Miles off the Gulf Coast
--
Proud member of the Cajun Crunch Team

1300h mom's house

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:44:34 EDT

ghostpainter : Thanks for wth for posting those surge impact maps. If the right front quadrant should hit the Houston shipping channel dead on the 35 foot storm surge would be felt in downtown Houston with downtown flooding. And they are worried about 120mph winds hitting the high rises in Houston.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:29:48 EDT

wth : Predicted Storm Surge/High Water Map

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:16:46 EDT

yock : Is the storm surge looking to affect the inland communities northwest of Galveston or is it only the island itself that is in serious peril?

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:14:08 EDT

ghostpainter : Dont be mislead by the radar...The right front quadrant is what is driving the surge and the rain. The surge into areas like Port Kennedy and the Houston shipping channel is now expected to be as high as 35 feet. The surge is already flooding hundreds of miles of New Orleans lower parishes west ward into Port Charles and Galveston.

If you have not left you have about 4 more hours to get out. This storm is twice as big as Katrina in size of storm. Its front is going to affect 800 miles of coastline. By Saturday night, Galveston might well be gone.
--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:01:13 EDT

markwp2001 : As someone whose community was greatly affected by Katrina, I'm praying and hoping for the best for the people in Texas who will experience this storm.
--
LHF's Football Master 2006

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 15:21:29 EDT

yock : I was considering a follow up post to this effect. What might cause something like that?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:55:21 EDT

Axilla :

said by SmokChsr :

said by A Predictor :

do cellphones work during a hurricane? Or atleast the text messaging part.?

They might, or might not, no way to know for sure until it happens. Keep in mind that Cell towers depend on wired communication circuits to work. They normally have backup power on site via battery & generator. But the batteries only last so long and the generator only has so much fuel. If they lose the wired phone circuits to the cell site all bets are off. In the Houston area I'd imagine voice service has been spotty at best most of the day. Text messages have a better chance of getting through if the sites stay up. Bottom line with a storm like Ike coming to visit expect to have No communications for a while. That's why I have HF, VHF, & UHF radios at the ready when a storm approaches.

Yeah it may or may not work depending on the extent of damage. Im sure the cell companies will have their COWs, cell tower on wheels with a satellite backbone, up after the storm. But usually in a large disaster there is more cell traffic than can be sustained.

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:54:49 EDT

SmokChsr : It's closer now.. It seems it has a very dry front side.

1:42 PM CDT

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:30:52 EDT

antwanp : An update from Stephen F. Austin University in Nacogdoches, Texas (Zip: 75962).

Friday September 12, 2008 13:30 CST (Update)

Forecasts call for the potential of heavy rain and high winds for a 30-hour period beginning at approximately 10 tonight. During this time period, there is a potential for power outages on campus. Campus emergency management personnel have been making preparations for this for the past several days, and other campus departments are urged to plan accordingly.

Students who plan to stay on campus this weekend are required to sign in at the front desk of their residence hall between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. today. Upon registration, students will receive information regarding storm preparedness for their hall.

-Antwan L.
--
The Perils of Living in 3-D: »www.antwanpayne.com

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:27:02 EDT

Doctor Four : At lunchtime today, there was live footage on the Weather
Channel of the owners of an AT&T store removing as much
merchadise as they could and putting into a van in order
to save it from the storm surge. Right across the street
from them was the Galveston seawall.
--
"The trouble with computers, of course, is that they are very sophisticated idiots." - Doctor Who (from Robot)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 14:13:40 EDT

jay_rm :

said by sailor :

but then a little while later another major news story from the same source is titled:

"Forecaster warns of 'certain death' as Ike looms"

Up here it was "Those who choose not to evacuate MAY face CERTAIN death". Well...which is it ??

Major media....sigh
--
3500/512 5.7 GHz Motorola Canopy Wireless; FoxValley.net
"Peace through superior firepower"

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 13:35:44 EDT

yock : Yeah, they only have base on the long range products, which makes sense. I guess we'll have to wait for it to creep closer to the Galveston radar.

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 13:17:34 EDT

tstolze : I noticed this earlier this morning.The Moisture on the NW side of the storm is seemingly tight to the center. Off course, this is comparing that area to the rest of this large system. :D
--
Ofallon, Mo Weather

Water Vapor Image

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 13:06:30 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by yock :

Care to post a pic?

Since they are Java animated I'm not sure the posting will really do justice, they are slow loading but links are below.

»www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php···loop=yes
»www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php···loop=yes
»www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php···loop=yes

Re: Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 12:51:51 EDT

yock :

said by SmokChsr :

I'm looking at long range Radar from NO, Lake Charles, and Huston, from all 3 it looks like the front of Ike is very dry for a hurricane. Currently he's not close enough to see the back side, but the center of circulation is visible. Unless all the rain is really low and below the radar at distance, he just looks really dry on the front and left sides. There is a bit more rain on the NE side but still not the amount I'd expect.

Depending on the angle you're seeing and the radar you're using, you might be exceptionally low or high in the storm. Care to post a pic?

Odd Radar Presentation

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 12:48:22 EDT

SmokChsr : I'm looking at long range Radar from NO, Lake Charles, and Huston, from all 3 it looks like the front of Ike is very dry for a hurricane. Currently he's not close enough to see the back side, but the center of circulation is visible. Unless all the rain is really low and below the radar at distance, he just looks really dry on the front and left sides. There is a bit more rain on the NE side but still not the amount I'd expect.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 12:42:08 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]Fairley Bayou in D'Iberville.

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 12, 2008

...100 mph plus winds expected along the Upper-Texas coast by
midnight...weather should deteriorate earlier...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
Baffin Bay Texas. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the
coast in the warning area later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Baffin Bay to
Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect
from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border...
including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1000 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located
near latitude 27.2 north...longitude 92.6 west or about 295 miles...
480 km...east of Corpus Christi Texas and about 195 miles...320 km
...Southeast of Galveston Texas.

Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected later today...with a turn
toward the north expected on Saturday. On the forecast track...the
center of Ike will be very near the Upper Texas coast by late today
or early Saturday. However...because Ike is a very large tropical
cyclone...weather will begin to deteriorate along the coastline
soon.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale but could reach the coast as a category
three...major hurricane. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely on high rise buildings.

Ike remains a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km...from the center...and
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...445 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance aircraft is
954 mb...28.17 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet...with a few spots to
near 25 feet...above normal tide along with large and dangerous
battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the
center of Ike makes landfall. The surge extends a greater than
usual distance from the center due to the large size of the
cyclone. Water levels have already risen by more than 5 feet along
much of the northwestern Gulf Coast.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over
eastern Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana...with isolated
amounts of 15 inches possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southern
Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi. Isolated tornadoes are
possible tonight over portions of southwestern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas.

Repeating the 1000 am CDT position...27.2 N...92.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure...954 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 100 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400
PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 12:12:57 EDT

Seandhi : If you want to be irked by sensationalism, go to Accuweather.com

Most of Houston will be fine, but something that is remarkable is the size of the waves that are already crashing over the Galveston sea wall. The only reason that I am even a little concerned is the fact that I have three very tall pine trees in my back yard. This area has not seen heavy winds since the forest was cleared for this neighborhood. I hope they can hold up to the wind.
--
You're an enlightened cat, and I dig that.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 12:07:47 EDT

sailor : For someone who rarely watches television and who is sick and tired of the major media I am grateful this forum was created and for those of you here who keep us updated on major events such as Hurricane Ike.

Just gets to me how the media gives off so much misleading information..even the online media which is where I get my daily dose of news, at least the major news stories..

This morning on Yahoo's main page one of the major news stories was titled:

"Texas to STARE down Hurricane Ike"

but then a little while later another major news story from the same source is titled:

"Forecaster warns of 'certain death' as Ike looms"

So which is it for those in his path..stay and 'stare him down' and kick his ass or stay to stare him down but then face certain death? :huh: :mad:

Anyway, that is my news rant for the day...Thanks to all of you here for providing sound advice and information!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 11:50:03 EDT

dazdnconfusd : Just wanted to say good luck. I have never left for a hurricane except for Katrina and that was at the last minute. I am sure glad I did, lost everything I owned but the clothes I took with me. :(
Be careful and stay safe anyone that is in its way.

LJP
formally of
St. Bernard, La.
--
Say What, You Want Me To Do What?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 11:22:05 EDT

Doctor Four : A co-worker of mine told me about an interactive site you
can track hurricanes on: »www.stormpulse.com/

If you look at the wind field of Ike there, the hurricane
force winds extend out over 100 miles, while those of
trpoical storm force would cover the entire state of
Texas.

Or to put it another way, the entire storm would cover the
distance from NYC to Washington, DC.

If anyone here lives in Texas, I'd strongly consider
filling up your gas tank today. A significant number of
refineries are in Ike's path, and a lot of the infrastructure
is located in the Houston area. Expect gas prices to start
climbing back toward $4.00/gallon.
--
"The trouble with computers, of course, is that they are very sophisticated idiots." - Doctor Who (from Robot)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 11:12:25 EDT

KeysCapt : Yeah, at 1100 Eastern, much of the coast is already underwater, and the hurricane is 200 miles +/- away.

Hard to imagine 15-20 surge in this area.

[att=1]

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 08:31:52 EDT

wilbilt : From the NHC local statement for Houston/Galveston...

Maximum water levels forecast:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent...4 to 6 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda bay...2 to 5 feet

Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to
San Luis pass...12 to 15 feet

Gulf-facing coastline San Luis pass to high island
including Galveston island......15 to 20 feet

Shoreline of Galveston bay...15 to 25 feet

Life threatening inundation likely!

All neighborhoods...and possibly entire coastal communities...
will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide. Persons
Not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story
homes may face certain death. Many residences of average
construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread
and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere.
Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads
will be swamped...some may be washed away by the water. Entire
flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may
exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in
multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be
worsened by battering waves closer to the coast. Such waves will
exacerbate property damage...with massive destruction of
homes...including those of block construction. Damage from beach
erosion could take years to repair.
--
We were taking a vote when the ground came up and hit us.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:29:17 EDT

Budster :

said by royhandy :

Dumb hurricane question....I'm looking at Ike's predicted track at NOAA and I see that the storm begins moving across the land at a mucher higher rate after landfall. Why is this?

Clipped from the 4AM Discussion

quote:
Ike is moving around the periphery of a large mid/upper-level ridge over the southeastern United States toward a break caused by a trough over the southwestern United States. Ike should turn northward during the next 36 hr...then accelerate northeastward into the westerlies thereafter.

--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:25:26 EDT

royhandy : Dumb hurricane question....I'm looking at Ike's predicted track at NOAA and I see that the storm begins moving across the land at a much higher rate after landfall. Why is this?

edit: I said "mucher higher"!
--
the wheels of your life are slowly falling off

Statement as of 4:00 am CDT on September 12, 2008

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:17:47 EDT

Budster : ...Ike gets a little stronger...forecast to become a major
hurricane...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
Baffin Bay Texas. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the
coast in the warning area later today. Preparations to protect life
an property in the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Baffin Bay to
Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect
from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border...
including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 26.7 north...longitude 91.6 west or about 365 miles...585
km...east of Corpus Christi Texas and about 265 miles...425 km...
southeast of Galveston Texas.

Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr. A
turn toward the northwest is expected later today...with a turn
toward the north expected on Saturday. On the forecast track...the
center of Ike will be very near the Upper Texas coast by late today
or early Saturday. However...because Ike is a very large tropical
cyclone...weather will deteriorate along the coastline today...long
before the center reaches the coast.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph...
165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours...and Ike is forecast to become a
major hurricane before the center reaches the coast.

Ike remains a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds
extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km...from the center...and
tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...445 km.
An oil platform in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico recently
reported sustained winds of 89 mph...144 km/hr...at an elevation of
400 feet.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane
hunters is 953 mb...28.14 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes
landfall...extending a greater than usual distance from the center
due to the large size of the cyclone. Surge flooding of up
to 25 feet...and possibly higher...could occur at the heads of bays.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous waves...can be expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf
Coast. Above normal tides in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
gradually subside over the next day or so.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches over
eastern Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana...with isolated
amounts of 15 inches possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southern
Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi. Isolated tornadoes are
possible tonight over portions of southwestern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas.

Repeating the 400 am CDT position...26.7 N...91.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure...953 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:13:22 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by Budster :

Tropical Storm force winds are here. My power at home already is out, Seen and heard a few more trees down in my drive in to work.

Yes, Southern La is already getting some of the storm, and will likely get more. The last discussion indicated that the strongest winds were about 50 NM north of the center.

Ike has also been unable to reform an eye, he formed one for a while once he was off Cuba but it collapsed and hasn't returned. That indicates something aloft is still agitating Ike.

For those in Tx, and southern LA Ike's a commin, so I hope you are already ready. For me (when I'm in the strike area) is the most irritating part of the storm, being ready and having to wait and wait for it to come in.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 07:02:42 EDT

Budster : Wow, I'm impressed at the size of this storm. Tropical Storm force winds are here. My power at home already is out, Seen and heard a few more trees down in my drive in to work.
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 03:57:18 EDT

Hayward :

said by wilbilt :

Ike is a mutant storm. Does anyone think we will be seeing more of these?

Not really much like Katrina or Rita once they got out on to the open warm water unobstucted. Gulf
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:28:17 EDT

imtim83 :

said by paul myers :

If the cell towers arn't destroyed and they have standby generators, yes they should work. Text working much better then voice. At least that is what we found during Hurricane RITA

After Hurricane Katrina you could barely ever get a voice call out but text messaging worked just fine the whole way through after.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 02:16:52 EDT

JayMan : I put the live cams up again for ike.

»www.weatherserver.net/hurricanefeeds.html

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 01:27:16 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by A Predictor :

do cellphones work during a hurricane? Or atleast the text messaging part.?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:48:56 EDT

paul myers : If the cell towers arn't destroyed and they have standby generators, yes they should work. Text working much better then voice. At least that is what we found during Hurricane RITA
--
Proud member of the Cajun Crunch Team

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:35:48 EDT

anon : Quick question before i get hammered by ike.....ddo cellphones work during a hurricane? Or atleast the text messaging part.?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:30:53 EDT

SmokChsr : In other news Since it looks like it's going to affect the Houston area, Gas prices jumped 0.16 today, and expected to jump even more tomorrow. (that's in Florida)

Other than that Ike seems to be keeping on a path towards Galveston Bay Satellites are into the 3 hours eclipse, more when the images come back.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Fri, 12 Sep 2008 00:27:11 EDT

paul myers :

said by BUGZILLA 57 :

The way Ike is curving, I'd be afraid to be in Lake Charles.

We'll be here waiting for him. :o
--
Proud member of the Cajun Crunch Team

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 23:44:37 EDT

ghostpainter : Ike will affect a very large area
regardless of exactly where the center GOES. Damaging winds and
dangerous storm surges could extend well away from the center of
circulation...and conditions along the coast will deteriorate
tomorrow well in advance of landfall of the center. The dynamical
models have not trended significantly one way or the other since
the last cycle...and are tightly clustered right around the
previous official forecast track...which is changed negligibly on
this advisory. The new track is just a little left of the previous
one during the inland re curvature...If you live anywhere along the Texas Coast expect conditions to deteriorate and storm waters to rise well in advance of Hurricane force winds especially along the North West Quadrant. A storm surge of 25 feet along this landfall will be devastating as far east as Lake Charles and especially in the Houston channel.

Some food for thought.... People sheltering at ground level at Galveston Bay when Hurricane Ike hits face "certain death," from at least a 22 feet storm surge on top of a above normal tide, the weather service warns. When they say Get Out, GET OUT!!!!

--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 23:05:31 EDT

digitalfutur : As of the 11 PM update, Ike still has not strengthened. CAT 2 status is likely at landfall...Not to be dismissed, but not devastating.

»www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI···00.shtml
--
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing - Edmund Burke. "Walk the Talk".

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 22:37:19 EDT

antwanp : Stephen F. Austin University (my school) has canceled classes beginning at noon tomorrow. The University Health and Safety board is meeting right now, deciding if they should take further action. The RA's are starting to pass out evacuation plans to all of us, just in case. Texas State troopers are limiting southbound access on HWY 59 (Highway to Houston) and Northbound traffic is quickly filling up. Already drama at a few gas stations (price gouging and fighting). It took me about 45 minutes to wait in line for gas this afternoon (around 17:30). According to a few models, looks like we're (Nacogdoches, TX) on a target for a direct hit. Just like Rita a few years back...

-Antwan L.
--
The Perils of Living in 3-D: »www.antwanpayne.com

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:52:43 EDT

ilikeme :

said by ghostpainter :

This system also has the potential to become a tropical system.

We are still going to get the effects from it here in Houston.
--

Fiber Optics is the future of high-speed internet access. Stop by the BBR Fiber Optic Forum

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:49:49 EDT

Seandhi : This hurricane is heading to East Texas and western Louisiana. The models keep moving farther east every time they do an update. Rita did the same thing.
--
You're an enlightened cat, and I dig that.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:41:23 EDT

imtim83 : Ike does not have the same luxury!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:40:50 EDT

imtim83 :

said by tiger9 :

Wasn't Katrina a Cat-3 @ 125mph at landfall?

Yes but Ike is forested to only be a Cat-3 as well. Also Hurricane Katrina turned into a Cat. 5 with 175 mph in the middle of the gulf of mexico a day or so before landfall. So Hurricane Katrina was a huge Cat. 3 125 mph hurricane packing the punch of a huge Cat. 5 wall of water storm surge! :D

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:26:23 EDT

Cheese :

said by tiger9 :

Wasn't Katrina a Cat-3 @ 125mph at landfall?

Wiki says so! :)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 21:20:38 EDT

tiger9 : Wasn't Katrina a Cat-3 @ 125mph at landfall?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:59:54 EDT

royhandy :

said by BUGZILLA 57 :

By the way, what kind of bass was that you saw walk up on the shore? I always have to bait a hook to get their attention. :D

ROFL! The guys were using canned peas...they just put a couple on the shore and grabbed the fish when he came out to take a pea...

Actually, it was two guys and they basically herded the fish into shallows and grabbed him. He was a decent sized largemouth. That really made an impression on me as did the gar that an old-timer had caught.
--
the wheels of your life are slowly falling off

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:32:19 EDT

BUGZILLA 57 : The way Ike is curving, I'd be afraid to be in Lake Charles.
--
Las cucarachas entran, pero no pueden salir.

Re: Hurricane Ike; PC Scanner channels open in Texas

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:16:44 EDT

ghostpainter : If you would like to listen in to the evacuation notices, road conditions and other Ike related issues you can do so at Scannerbuff.

Scannerbuff (SBN) is feeding Galveston and San Antonio Evac Ops at
teamspeak://radio.scannerbuff.net:8767

Additional feeds are available at:

»65.44.220.102:8010/dallas.m3u
»65.44.220.102:8010/galveston.m3u
»65.44.220.102:8010/sanantonio.m3u
--
»www.insidetheie.com/
»earthlogii.blogspot.com/
»vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
»earthlogwxlinks-theghostpainter.···pot.com/
Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:15:19 EDT

BUGZILLA 57 : Yeah. Just like 30 years ago, the old lake has his moods. Right now, it's low and dry. About 10 ft. low. But that's what the 'highland lake' reservoirs were designed for.
I had so hoped Ike might lend us a foot or two of rain. I hate to see anyone flooded, but it takes a good tropical breeze to fill us properly, save a Navajo 'female' rain out in West Texas.
Anyhow, given Ike's N.E. curve, and the wringer effect of the gulf stream, I'm afraid Ghostpainter is right as usual. We'll be lucky to get a drop.
By the way, what kind of bass was that you saw walk up on the shore? I always have to bait a hook to get their attention. :D
--
Las cucarachas entran, pero no pueden salir.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:43:59 EDT

royhandy : Those waterspout pics are great! I used to go to Black Rock Park on Lake Buchanan back when I was a kid. I haven't been there in probably 30 years. We found the best dog we ever had one day at that lake. Her name was Smokie and she was a stray with pups. I also saw some guys walk a big old bass into shore there one day. It's also where I learned how to swim. Note to youngsters...if your father wants to take you out in a boat, and you can't swim...think twice!
--
the wheels of your life are slowly falling off

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:37:49 EDT

imtim83 :

said by A Predictor :

Hey i know yall remember me from like 2 weeks ago when i posted and said ike was headed for houston tx. Well its going to happen and i Live in Houston Texas close to freeport were the eye is expected to pass. Im going to be catching some videos and pics during the eye and i will post them on you tube and if i can here so stay tune. And wish me luck that my roof dosent blow off.

Can't wait! I don't think it will live up to Hurricane Katrina though. I hope I am wrong though.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:36:41 EDT

imtim83 : Few storms will ever beat Hurricane Katrina because it will take a lot to happen and almost perfect conditions. There could not have been a more perfect storm to hit me! I couldn't be more thankful to get the perfect ingredients or as close as it could be at the time. If another Hurricane can beat Hurricane Katrina here that would be great but it may take a while. Having a storm that big and that powerful does not happen everyday.

Though I have hope there will be one someday but Hurricane Katrina was for me and I am proud to have witnessed her.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:33:43 EDT

imtim83 :

said by Budster :

I Disagree. I do see that when Ike was a Cat 4, the pressure was only 950mb, it was a small storm at the time and had small enough of field of inflow to support its rapid pressure drop transitions. Currently at 945mb with a much larger wind field estimated around 275 miles, yeah I can see why.

Katrina's wind field was also over 200 miles, but the center pressure was an unbelievable 902(at 175mph) (918 at 127mph landfall)... Ike's not even in the ballpark... yet :/

Hurricane Katrina is my baby I will never forget her. Always will be thankful to her for giving me exactly what I wanted.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:26:11 EDT

wilbilt :

said by A Predictor :

Im going to be catching some videos and pics during the eye and i will post them on you tube and if i can here so stay tune.

I'd be thinking about catching some Zzzs in a hotel as far away from Houston as I could get.
--
We were taking a vote when the ground came up and hit us.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:13:57 EDT

MrMoody :

said by A Predictor :

i Live in Houston Texas close to freeport were the eye is expected to pass. Im going to be catching some videos and pics during the eye and i will post them on you tube and if i can here so stay tune. And wish me luck that my roof dosent blow off.

I sincerely hope nothing falls on you, and you can stay out of the flood water. This storm is looking like it will cause major destruction. You won't be posting anything on Youtube from there until the internet comes back on, however many days that takes.
--
Electile Dysfunction: the inability to become aroused over the choice for President put forth by either party.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:10:26 EDT

royhandy : On NBC news, I heard the anchor saying something to the effect that if you are planning on attempting to ride out the storm in a single family dwelling you should, and I'm paraphrasing here, be fully prepared to kiss your ass goodbye. (My attention was divided but I think he was saying this about the areas closest to landfall.)

Good luck to you, Predictor.
--
the wheels of your life are slowly falling off

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 18:53:06 EDT

anon : Hey i know yall remember me from like 2 weeks ago when i posted and said ike was headed for houston tx. Well its going to happen and i Live in Houston Texas close to freeport were the eye is expected to pass. Im going to be catching some videos and pics during the eye and i will post them on you tube and if i can here so stay tune. And wish me luck that my roof dosent blow off.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 18:25:44 EDT

wilbilt :

said by Hayward :

Here in Key west we expected something but no one was really expecting over 24 hours of tropical winds and for 6+ hours frequent near hurricane gusts, it being nearly 200 miles away and only 80mph at the time..

Wherever this thing lands... you don't want to be there... or even the fringes if flood prone.

Wowsers. :o

Ike is a mutant storm. Does anyone think we will be seeing more of these?
--
We were taking a vote when the ground came up and hit us.

Re: Hurricane Ike; Tropical Force Wind shield

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 17:56:46 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]The storm is so large now that when it comes ashore the TS winds will be affecting almost an 800 mile area.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 17:36:17 EDT

Budster : its getting windy here

Re: Hurricane Ike; Storm Surge & current Warnings & Alerts

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:54:30 EDT

ghostpainter :

said by Budster :

is that storm surge or wave heights?

That is storm surge....

Re: Hurricane Ike; Storm Surge & current Warnings & Alerts

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:49:58 EDT

Budster : is that storm surge or wave heights?

Hurricane Ike; Storm Surge & current Warnings & Alerts

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:48:10 EDT

ghostpainter : Ike will be driving a minimum 20 foot storm surge ahead of it into several areas in its path. Unfortunately, New Orleans is expected to receive a 10 to 16 foot storm surge as is the coastal areas of western Mississippi.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 12:43:01 EDT

Budster : I Disagree. I do see that when Ike was a Cat 4, the pressure was only 950mb, it was a small storm at the time and had small enough of field of inflow to support its rapid pressure drop transitions. Currently at 945mb with a much larger wind field estimated around 275 miles, yeah I can see why.

Katrina's wind field was also over 200 miles, but the center pressure was an unbelievable 902(at 175mph) (918 at 127mph landfall)... Ike's not even in the ballpark... yet :/
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 12:32:47 EDT

seqrets :

quote:
Cat 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katerina

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.

Very interesting read. More at> »www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa···how.html

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 07:07:31 EDT

Hayward : And it has become Mamoth since leavimg Cuba... filling now almost the entire eastern Gulf, but for very near FL... still days from TX but edges already getting out that way already and especialy N-S expanded.

Here in Key west we expected something but no one was really expecting over 24 hours of tropical winds and for 6+ hours frequent near hurricane gusts, it being nearly 200 miles away and only 80mph at the time..

Wherever this thing lands... you don't want to be there... or even the fringes if flood prone.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 06:56:07 EDT

Cozworth : The way the winds aren't developing but the pressure is dropping makes me wonder if this could be all about the flood risk rather than the wind damage.

The latest HH flights seem to suggest that Ike is still barely a cat 2 but with a pressure of 944mb which is pretty darn low for a cat2. (happy to be corrected on that)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 02:42:50 EDT

Hayward : More of hook now...and getting HUGE... most of Gulf. and as I have said if I lived in the soup bowl of NOLA with many ways out VS KW with just one 2 lane way out for over 120 miles often traveling into the storm to do it... I'd be out every time

And this thing has gotten a whole lot HUGER since it passed us, if not yet particularly stronger, and was in the process on the way by and why we got over 24 hours of it. Now coverinring a good part of the entre Gulf.

Its sort of odd how FLOODING SUB TS's are in many areas more damaging if still lotsa water, when they stall and CRAWL.

Key West was sort of surprised that IKE, we knew were going to be signifigantly glaneced by... BUT took OVER 24 hours to pass by... so long over CUBA had slowed to a CRAWL.

Now picking up forward motion over open water again. Though still surprised to see only 8mph.... may put off the inevitable... but like us we didn't expect 24 hours of more and when it does finally get there, likely much stronger.

Keeps that up could really scour the TX coast.

Again unlike KW where you have MULTIPLE ways out (vs one easily cripled often into the storm like IKE) and lots of places to go.... DO IT!!!!

AND BY THE WAY don't take that tropical storm warning for LA lightly either... there will be LOTS of water... actually we sort of as usual escaped.... but not when that thing piles up against land vs A just above sea level just flows over/around SPEC in the OCEAN Key West is. And then the GRAVETY back wash too back into the gulf... we NEVER get... always a one way event.... and what did in NOLA.... not the hurricaneit was really the hours later back wash of high water trying to get back to the GULF with just gravity and REVERSE wind more pushing it that did in the levees and flood walls.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 21:11:28 EDT

ilikeme : updated map.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 20:37:48 EDT

ghostpainter : TD Lowell will be pushing Moisture into western Texas tonight and tomorrow and flood warnings are already posted for eastern New Mexico and several areas of western Texas.

What will happen is that the stream from the Pacific will not join with Ike but rather push the moisture back to the east over Louisiana, Mississippi and dissipate bringing more heavy rain. It is hoped that this time the moisture will spread over parts of Texas still suffering from drought.

Also, Ike is still being steered by the trough to the north and the High settling down over Florida, so there is still a chance that Ike could still hit the southern Parishes of New Orleans if the low trough moves to the north very quickly.

gdh-hinghamwx.
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 20:03:56 EDT

75307788 : Updated: Chosen a land fall point..

Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 10, 2008– 5:00pm PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Tracking map: »www.owsweather.com/91008tsd1.jpg

Ike is a Category Two Hurricane. Ike is still strengthening and should reach Category Three status within the next thirty hours. I do not think the dry air West of Ike will be a problem and will maintain our Major Hurricane Forecast. Ike is showing signs of drifting North of the track, however it is just a wobble. I do believe Ike will continue West-Northwest throughout the entire lifetime. I don't believe the trough is strong enough to turn Ike North and East before making the Texas landfall. Right now we see Ike bombing out into a Category 5 Hurricane still, just before the Texas landfall. We are pegging Matagorda County, Southwest of Galveston, TX as the land falling point. This is still right there with last nights write-up so no need to change that. This is the county I am pinpointing right now.
As stated before, this storm system will hit near the Galveston and Houston area on Saturday Morning. I expect tornado watches to go up during the event and tornadoes will be widespread as Ike hits Texas. Tornadoes are generally not that violent in Hurricanes though but any tornado is a dangerous one.
Am taking Ike North-Northwestward through Saturday and putting Dallas-Forth-Worth East of the circulation in the Category 1 to Tropical Storm Force wind gusts. Also this section would provide the most flooding and tornado potential. Ike will flood a major area in Texas, however Texas needs it for the drought.

K. MARTIN

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 19:22:24 EDT

seqrets : Talk about a coincidence? Look at the projected paths and the time scale.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 18:44:06 EDT

BUGZILLA 57 : I've been watching the (edit)SATELLITE mosaic on NOAA...

»www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?ima···hours=24

I'm not sure how well the link will work, but if it doesn't loop, 24 hr. loop it, and notice what's happening out in Baja California. This (and the decending pacific front) has been pumping moisture into Texas for a couple of days.
The waterspout photo was taken yesterday by friends of friends near our place at 'Lake Buck'.
Will this be the perfect storm? Or is the baja/frontal connection all in my head?
--
Las cucarachas entran, pero no pueden salir.

Lake Buchanan 1
Lake Buchanan 2

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:48:11 EDT

Cheese :

said by lilhurricane :

Go get a Moe's burrito & a cerveza - settle in for the night.
Ain't gonna be nada here.

My thoughts are with those now in it's path.

That sounds good :D

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:32:46 EDT

seqrets :

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:23:04 EDT

lilhurricane : Go get a Moe's burrito & a cerveza - settle in for the night.
Ain't gonna be nada here.

My thoughts are with those now in it's path.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:17:41 EDT

Cheese : Great, tornado warnings for SWFLA :huh:

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 17:12:31 EDT

ghostpainter : URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
608 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE GULF WATERS CANCELED AT THIS TIME...
...RAINBAND AFFECTING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...

.AT 500 AM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES, FLORIDA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

GMZ656-657-676-101115-
/O.CAN.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
608 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELED...

...NEW INFORMATION...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELED.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.
MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO
BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM. COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO
CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT THE REST OF TODAY
WHILE THE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...TORNADOES...

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF IKE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
OF OCCURRENCE OF WATERSPOUTS WILL BE BEFORE NOON TODAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 45
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY OFFSHORE, BECOMING
20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GUSTS ARE LIKELY MAINLY IN RAIN
BANDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT IS THE LAST ISSUED RELATED TO HURRICANE IKE. REFER
TO THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ANY HAZARD FOR
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-101115-
/O.CAN.KMFL.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-
METRO PALM BEACH-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
608 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED ALL AREAS.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM
BEACH, GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES, ALL
THE ATLANTIC WATERS, BISCAYNE BAY, AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT THE REST OF TODAY WHILE THE
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THE TIDE GAGE AT BOTH VIRGINIA KEY ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
NAPLES ON THE GULF COAST SHOW TIDES RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. TIDES ARE FORECAST TO RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL,
HIGHEST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND NEAR FLORIDA BAY INCLUDING
THE FLAMINGO AREA. ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST, THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND RESULTING WAVE ACTION
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AND POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT AROUND 20 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A PERSISTENT RAINBAND ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE
AND COLLIER COUNTIES, INTO THE GREATER NAPLES AREA. THIS RAINBAND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR.
THIS COULD PRODUCE MINOR URBAN FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

...TORNADOES...

THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS FROM IKE. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE BEFORE NOON TODAY ACROSS COLLIER
AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES IN THE PERSISTENT RAINBAND NOW
AFFECTING THESE AREAS.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY, SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST. SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY WILL REACH
6 TO 8 FEET, HIGHEST OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT.

OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS
AFTERNOON.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT IS THE LAST ISSUED RELATED TO HURRICANE IKE. REFER
TO THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR ANY HAZARD FOR
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

$$
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 16:18:17 EDT

Hayward :

said by SmokChsr :

said by Hayward :

Well Key West has had over 24 hours of tropical winds, though it is finally starting to wind down.

Don't let your guard down just yet, It looks like Ike may throw at least one more feeder band you way in about 1.5 hrs.

Yeah there was one more, and it caused another power outage, I suspect on the tie line some where as it wasn't that bad here and it took 2+ hours to fix this time, though probably few noticed as it happen about 3am, except maybe they woke up because the house got warm.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:42:09 EDT

Telly Boot : I had thought there might be Jet Stream influence, but looks like they are also predicting Ike to continue Westward into Texas:
»squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetst···cst.html
--
Dawn,n,The time when men of reason go to bed. (Ambrose Bierce.)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:16:53 EDT

ropeguru :

said by SmokChsr :

said by ropeguru :

Is it me, or did the 1815 UTC visible make it look like it either stalled a little or changed direction?

It's doing another weeble. It has been doing that since it came off of Cuba. Quite deceptive trying to see what it's doing. Have to wait for a few more images before it shows its hand.

Glad to know my eyes aren't going bad. :D

I have been staring at this computer too long anyway. And throw in an hour plus dry conference call, I could have been seeing it go over iceland.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:13:15 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by ropeguru :

Is it me, or did the 1815 UTC visible make it look like it either stalled a little or changed direction?

It's doing another weeble. It has been doing that since it came off of Cuba. Quite deceptive trying to see what it's doing. Have to wait for a few more images before it shows its hand.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 15:09:38 EDT

ropeguru : Is it me, or did the 1815 UTC visible make it look like it either stalled a little or changed direction?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:30:33 EDT

vasta : feels like we are being hit by a hurricane, tree bending winds and tons of rain for the past half hour

good stuff...more

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:14:01 EDT

ghostpainter : Hypercane? Gesssh!!! :huh: :uhh: :hmm:

Evacuations notices have been ordered for the Mississippi River Delta and all of the south Parishes of New Orleans, west to Lake Charles. Texas has declared a state of emergency. Warnings and advisories are not yet posted for Texas.

the NOAA aircraft recently reported a peak SFMR wind of 81 kt...and
a minimum pressure of 957 mb. Peak flight-level winds were 84
kt...and the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt on this basis.
The SFMR and flight-level data also indicate that that the
hurricane wind radii have expanded.

The small eye of Ike has been looping within a broader cyclonic
envelope over the past few hours...but the overall motion of Ike is
estimated to be 300/7. There has been essentially no change to the
official track forecast...which calls for a slight Bend to the left
over the next 24-48 hours as the subtropical ridge builds westward
over the southeastern United States. Model guidance remains in
good agreement through 48 hours...although the spread has increase
again late in the forecast period. Once again...the GFS indicates
a more westward track while the UKMET and ECMWF show a recurvature
beginning around the time of landfall. The official forecast is in
best agreement with the GFDL and is very close to the dynamical
model consensus. Users are reminded that the average three day
forecast error is nearly 200 miles...and that the best estimate of
the threat is given by the NHC wind speed probability graphical and
text products.

The aircraft reports indicate that the small inner eye is eroding as
outer bands surrounding this feature are becoming better defined.
This could limit rapid development in the very near term.
However...the upper air pattern is going to be very favorable for
development over the next 24-48 hours...and not much less favorable
thereafter. In addition...the forecast track takes Ike over some
warm Gulf eddies. While there is some dry air in the western
Gulf...and indeed some of that is near the core right now...the
large size of the circulation and outer banding suggests that Ike
should be fairly effective in fighting off these negative effects.
The official forecast is closer to the GFDL and HWRF solutions than
the SHIPS/lgem guidance.

--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 13:45:06 EDT

seqrets : I think that it is just a wobble.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 13:19:12 EDT

KeysCapt : [att=1]

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 12:44:17 EDT

Telly Boot : Hmmm, looks to me like Ike has turned North, heading towards New Orleans as of now:
»www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellit···=1&clf=1
[play at 95 frames / speed + ]
--
Dawn,n,The time when men of reason go to bed. (Ambrose Bierce.)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 08:05:56 EDT

Cozworth : The 8am interim mentions that Ike has wobbled to moving NW but they expect it to resume WNW, and the pressure is at 959mb.
Saw that the size of the outer bands has increased seemingly but with little strengthening, but maybe it has grown prior to doing so.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 05:10:29 EDT

Cozworth : Latest Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 10, 2008
...Ike still pounding western Cuba with tropical storm force winds
and heavy rains...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Matanzas...la Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del Rio...and
the Isle of Youth.
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning from Key West
eastward has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 23.5 north...longitude 84.9 west or about 125 miles...200
km...north of the western tip of Cuba and about 465 miles...750 km
...Southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue across the central Gulf of
Mexico for the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Some strengthening is forecast and Ike could become a major
hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km. Ike is still producing strong gusty winds over
western Cuba. These are some recent observations provided the Cuban
meteorological institute: Casablanca Havana a wind gust to 80
mph...129 km/hr...Pinar del Rio...63 mph...101 km/hr and La Palma
62 mph...100 km/hr.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter
aircraft was 963 mb...28.44 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding and waves along the coasts of Cuba
should gradually subside today. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3
feet...along with large and dangerous waves...are possible in the
lower Florida Keys.

Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect the east and
west coasts of Florida for the next day or so. These swells could
generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over western Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Florida Keys
and rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible over portions of
southwest Florida this morning.

Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida
Keys and extreme South Florida this morning.

Repeating the 500 am EDT position...23.5 N...84.9 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...85
mph. Minimum central pressure...963 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 04:46:49 EDT

SmokChsr : So much for the well defined eye, it's gone, at least for now. Also Ike is wobbling so much it's hard to tell which way he's wanting to go. As Ghost had said earlier it'll probably be another 12-18 hrs before we know for sure. The troublesome part is that if for some reason he decides to turn back to the East (not likely but can happen) he'd be in Florida in no time. Actually if you ask those on the SW coast & the Keys he's already making his presence known. At different times through the night while watching the radar I've seen him wobble to the North, West, and even slightly back towards the East. As for the eye closing so quickly after reforming nicely, I would take that as a sign that something is agitating Ike. If he gets agitated enough he may do the unexpected.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 02:30:12 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by Hayward :

Well Key West has had over 24 hours of tropical winds, though it is finally starting to wind down.

Don't let your guard down just yet, It looks like Ike may throw at least one more feeder band you way in about 1.5 hrs.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 02:25:43 EDT

Hayward : Well Key West has had over 24 hours of tropical winds, though it is finally starting to wind down. In the afternoon we had several hours with gust into the 60's
Rain was pretty medium, with ony periodic torrents. Wind was quite considteent thoough.

Three brief power failures of about 30 min, first two in the late afternoon, early evening. Only one after dar around 10pm.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 01:58:59 EDT

75307788 : Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 9, 2008– 10:30pm PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Tracking Map 9/10/08 - »www.owsweather.com/9908tsd1.jpg

Ike is a Category one. Our projections are for it to rapidly intensify in the Gulf Of Mexico. I still believe that Ike will be what is known as a Hyper Cane. My own word for a completely strong Category 5 Hurricane with amazing structure. Textbook structure in the Gulf Of Mexico and be large in size, almost covering the entire Gulf. Winds in Ike may reach gusts over 200+ at It's peak.
I think Ike will go West-Northwest and then turn Northwest right into the SE TX coastal zones. Houston is most certainly not out of the track to say the least and the track may turn straight for it if it deviates in anyway from this forecast.
The forecast track from us is in the medium range. As you know, our medium range forecast is very accurate and can be trusted just a Ike was trusted in our medium range to hit Cuba and not the Florida Keys.
Ike should hit Texas as a Category 4 or 5 storm.

K. MARTIN

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 23:25:14 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l][att=2,r]Hurricane Ike Advisory Number 36
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092008
1100 Pm Edt Tue Sep 09 2008

...Ike Beginning To Strengthen...

At 11 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Government Of Cuba Has Changed The
Hurricane Warning To A Tropical Storm Warning For The Cuban
Provinces Of Matanzas...La Habana...Ciudad De Habana...Pinar Del
Rio...And The Isle Of Youth.

At 11 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Tropical Storm Warning For Florida Bay
And For The Florida Keys From Ocean Reef To The West End Of The
Seven Mile Bridge Is Discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning
Remains In Effect From West Of The Seven Mile Bridge Westward To
The Dry Tortugas.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1100 Pm Edt...0300Z...The Center Of Hurricane Ike Was Located
Near Latitude 23.2 North...Longitude 84.3 West Or About 120 Miles...
195 Km...West Of Havana Cuba.

Ike Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 9 Mph...15 Km/Hr...And
This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next Day Or Two.

Data From A Noaa Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That The
Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 80 Mph...130 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Ike Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Strengthening Is Expected...And Ike Could Become A Major Hurricane
In The Central Gulf Of Mexico.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175
Miles...280 Km. Key West Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 45
Mph...72 Km/Hr...With A Gust To 60 Mph...96 Km/Hr.

The Noaa Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Reported A Minimum Central
Pressure Of 967 Mb...28.56 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding And Waves Along The Coasts Of Cuba
Should Gradually Subside Overnight. Storm Surge Flooding Of 1 To 3
Feet...Along With Large And Dangerous Waves...Are Possible In The
Lower Florida Keys.

Large Swells Generated By Ike Will Continue To Affect The East Coast
Of Florida For The Next Day Or So. These Swells Could Generate
Dangerous And Life-Threatening Rip Currents.

Ike Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 6 To 12 Inches
Over Western Cuba...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of Up To 20 Inches
Possible. These Rains Are Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Flash
Floods And Mud Slides Over Mountainous Terrain. Rainfall
Accumulations Of 1 To 3 Inches Are Possible Over The Florida Keys.

Isolated Tornadoes And Waterspouts Are Possible Over The Florida
Keys And Extreme South Florida Overnight.

Repeating The 1100 Pm Edt Position...23.2 N...84.3 W. Movement
Toward...West-Northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...80
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...967 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 200 Am Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 500
Am Edt.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
__._,_.___
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 23:07:57 EDT

MrMoody : Looks like it's pretty certain to hit Texas somewhere.

11PM NHC predicted track

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 21:20:58 EDT

SmokChsr : Satellite & Radar are showing that the center of Ike has made it off the coast of Cuba, and that the eye has quickly reformed to be very well defined. Looking at the radar it appears to me that Ike is slowing down. Due to the limited amount of time in the radar loop it's hard to be certain of that. A couple more satellite images will tell the story.
Currently the Key West area is getting the heaviest of the outer rain bands which should slowly move off to the West.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 21:20:51 EDT

seqrets : Interesting view here, it even looks like iot might be going on a more NE direction. It could just be a woble?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 21:09:11 EDT

seqrets : Latest projected track.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:49:03 EDT

chandom : Slight issue, the date was August 31.

Added:
»www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p···on=42003

Station 42003 stopped transmitting during the passage of Hurricane Gustav. This buoy will be restored to service when when it can be worked into the schedule. When the service date is known, it will be posted in the weekly maintenance report.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 15:56:14 EDT

seqrets : Wunderground is reporting 34.48 ft Wave Height.

»www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/42003.html

Re: Satellite vs Radar

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 15:26:04 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by ghostpainter :

We have to wait and see how the low and high move in the next 24 hrs before the track finally settles down and we have a good idea where Ike is going.

You're not going to get any argument from me on that. As of now the center of Ike should get to the NW coast of Cuba in the hour. I'm sure Cuba will be happy to bid Ike a (not so) fond farewell and send him on his way. After he gets all of his toes back in the Gulf we'll be able to get an idea of which way he wants to go now, which may or may not be along any model path.

Re: Satellite vs Radar

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 11:16:23 EDT

ghostpainter : If the Low to the north pulls Ike to the north Florida and the Panhandel are once again a concern as is New Orleans. But if the low moves out fast and Ike moves quicker, then a High drops down over the Gulf and forces Ike to the west, perhaps even into northern Mexico or Brownsville.

We have to wait and see how the low and high move in the next 24 hrs before the track finally settles down and we have a good idea where Ike is going.

Oil was down to 104.64 so that shows that even the Oil companies are hedging on a clean miss of the oil rigs.

Ike where ever he hits should be a cat 3 or a 4 storm shortly before land fall.
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Satellite vs Radar

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 11:03:50 EDT

SmokChsr : Just looking at Satellite & radar loops, it looks like Ike is heading in 2 different directions. Looking at Floater 4 it looks like Ike is heading about 295, yet on radar it looks like his track is closer to 270.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 09:17:23 EDT

ropeguru : Agreed on that. Was impressive...

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 09:13:39 EDT

KeysCapt : Fifty foot waves may have been an exaggeration, but the height of the waves that cleared the seawall and were washing up against some of the storefronts was pretty impressive.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 08:06:57 EDT

ropeguru : Cannot see it because I am at work. But the news had it that 50 foot waves were battering Cuba. All I could see from their video was a 50 spray from where the wave hit the seawall.

Gotta love the media hype and worse, people beleve it, even when they see the footage to prove them incorrect.

Still moving

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 06:00:29 EDT

SmokChsr : With the 5AM update, Ike is still traveling along the South side of Cuba. Still tracking about 275 or so. The current 5 day projections have Ike Arriving in Corpus Cristy Tx around 2AM Saturday. Obviously that can all change and most likely will. Ike has been visible on the Key West long range radar all night, with a very small but definite eye. Usually about 1 pixel on the LR radar. »www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php···loop=yes

Cuba has been hit hard with these storms this year. Beside all the immediate damage down there, their economy it going to be seriously damaged. I think it's mostly based on tourism and agriculture. (yes they have tourism, just not from us U.S.) And I would guess that crops over 60% or more of the country have been beaten down to nothing in the fields.

Edit Add
Note this statement at the end of the Discussion forecast:
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Wobbling along

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 01:01:25 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by ilikeme :

said by seqrets :
So taking this latest forecast into account, is Matagorda Bay a likely land fall?

To me it is looking like it will hit somewhere between there and Galveston island.

Currently Ike is wobbling right along on sat images. He will probably continue to wobble until he gets back out into open water and regains some strength. Until that happens Any place on the gulf coast could be a target. In all likely hood at the moment it appears that South Texas is the target, but for me I'd be ready to take action from Florida to the Yucatan.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 00:01:00 EDT

MrMoody :

11PM model runs

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 23:49:45 EDT

ilikeme :

said by seqrets :

So taking this latest forecast into account, is Matagorda Bay a likely land fall?

To me it is looking like it will hit somewhere between there and Galveston island.
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 23:48:06 EDT

ilikeme :

said by wilbilt :

It looks like Ike is headed toward Cancun to me.

Please educate me if I am incorrect.

Right now most models are predicting that it is going to hit somewhere on the Texas coast somewhere between the Louisiana border and Corpus Christi, Texas.
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 23:48:01 EDT

seqrets : So taking this latest forecast into account, is Matagorda Bay a likely land fall?

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 23:36:21 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]No it should cross over Cuba again.

After wobbling a bit to the northwest and almost moving ashore on
the South Coast of Cuba...the motion has shifted back to the
west-northwest or 290/11 and Ike is moving roughly parallel to...and
just offshore of...the coast. The track models are in very close
agreement on the motion of Ike over the next couple of days. In
3-5 days...the guidance spreads out somewhat. The global models
depict a pronounced mid-tropospheric ridge over the northern Gulf
Coast in the latter part of the forecast period. The GFS and its
ensemble mean...along with the NOGAPS...show that this ridge will be
strong enough to cause Ike to turn toward the west in 96-120 hours.
Some of the guidance such as the HWRF and GFDL indicate that a short
wave trough moving from The Rockies will erode the ridge enough to
induce a more northward turn near the end of the period. I am
favoring the more westward option at this time since it would seem
that the GFDL and HWRF...which are regional models...would not
handle the evolution of mid-latitude short wave troughs as well as
a global model. The official track forecast is shifted southward
from the previous one at days 4 and 5 but is still generally north
of the dynamical track model consensus.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 23:21:42 EDT

wilbilt : It looks like Ike is headed toward Cancun to me.

Please educate me if I am incorrect.
--
We were taking a vote when the ground came up and hit us.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 21:23:12 EDT

shaner : Yikes!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:20:27 EDT

seqrets : Holy cat! Look at the wave breaking on the seawall!

»www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 19:13:14 EDT

ghostpainter : ..Correction to remove Hurricane Watch for the Florida Keys...

...Ike hugging the southern coast of central Cuba...

at 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the Hurricane Watch for the Florida Keys
from Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas has been discontinued.

At 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of the Bahamas has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Andros and Ragged
Islands.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba... Holguin...Las Tunas and
Granma...Camaguey...Ciego de Avila....Villa Clara...Sancti
Spiritus...Cienfuegos...Matanzas...la Habana...Ciudad de
Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas...including Florida Bay. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman.

Interests in South Florida should continue to monitor the progress
of Ike.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.4 north...longitude 79.7 west or about 45 miles...70
km...southeast of Cienfuegos Cuba and about 215 miles...340
km...southeast of Havana Cuba.

Ike is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...but a turn
toward the west-northwest should begin tonight. On this
track...the center of Hurricane Ike is expected to move along or
just south of the southern coast of central Cuba tonight...move over
western Cuba Tuesday...and emerge into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by Tuesday night.

Data from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
A slight increase in intensity is possible if the center remains
over water. Strengthening is forecast once Ike moves into the Gulf
of Mexico.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.

The minimum central pressure reported by the reconnaissance aircraft
was 965 mb...28.50 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern
coast of Cuba. Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet...along with
large and dangerous waves...are possible in the Florida Keys.

Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of
the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days.
These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
currents.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over Jamaica...with 2
to 4 inches possible over the Cayman Islands. Rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Florida Keys.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...21.4 N...79.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph.
Minimum central pressure...965 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Avila
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:56:16 EDT

SmokChsr : All Models seem to now be projecting a Texas hit.

Nice graphics site

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:56:04 EDT

EGeezer : Nice graphics and links - another handy feature are the attribution links to those graphics;

»web.tampabay.rr.com/wolfy/

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:55:14 EDT

MrMoody : Dear Ike,

Mexico is nice this time of year. Or better yet, just take a spin around the Gulf a few times.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:16:30 EDT

jhh : And what a surprise, it keeps heading west and the models have to change its course even further south. »icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i···odel.gif

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 16:05:19 EDT

Cozworth :

said by 75307788 :

NHC is way off. Ike is not going WNW and the track reflects that. It is going along my path across Cuba. Annoys me when they do not change the track to which way the system is really going. The cone should be West and then WNW-NW

And seemingly the oil traders are watching the NHC as the price of oil goes up in anticipation of a TX hit.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 15:16:29 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]Cuban radar and visible satellite imagery indicates that Ike
continues moving westward or 270/12. Track guidance remains in
good agreement that Ike will soon turn west-northwest and track
along or just south of Cuba for the next 12 to 24 hours. This
requires a slight southward shift to the official track through 36
hours. Dynamical models are still forecasting a shortwave trough
to move over the eastern United States in a couple of days
resulting in some weakening of the ridge to the north of Ike.
This is expected to cause Ike to turn temporarily to the northwest
with a reduction in forward speed. All models forecast the
shortwave to bypass Ike to the north...and are now in much better
agreement that Ike will turn slightly westward in about 3 days.
This turn is reflected in the official forecast. However...much
uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the mid-level ridge
which builds in the wake of the exiting shortwave. Accordingly...it
is still much too soon to know what portions of the Gulf Coast
could be impacted by Ike.
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 13:23:20 EDT

anon : I think Ike is heading for Galveston/Bay-town...but anyone from Corpus Christie-Port Arthur should watch this one (even lake Charles and Brownsville, but those two look less likely. Looks like Houston-Galveston should watch this one, esp if it strengthens to a cat 4 or 5 over the gulf.

If it turns - re-curves it'll be New Orleans-Panama City that will have to watch with Mobile-Gulf-port in the Eye Zone.

Those are my predictions at the moment I think it'll hit as a strong 3 or a 4

I don't think Donna scenario is now possible since it went south of Cuba. or a SW Florida-Keys strike
Keys might get tropical storm winds or minimal hurricane but that's about it

Miami has been spared another one.

-Jeff
Boston, MA

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:38:16 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,r]Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 08, 2008

...Ike battering Camaguey Cuba...heading westward for central and
western Cuba...

at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the western provinces of of la
Habana...Ciudad de Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba... Holguin...Las Tunas and
Granma...Camaguey...Ciego de Avila....Villa Clara...Sancti
Spiritus...Cienfuegos...Matanzas...la Habana...Ciudad de
Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of Youth.

At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas...including Florida Bay. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean
Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Andros Island and Ragged
Island.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica and Grand
Cayman.

Interests in South Florida should continue to monitor the progress
of Ike.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ike was located
near latitude 21.1 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 45 miles...
70 km...west-southwest of Camaguey Cuba and about 290 miles...465
km...east-southeast of Havana Cuba.

Ike is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...but a turn
toward the west-northwest should begin later today. On this
track...the center of Hurricane Ike should move back over water
near Punta macurijes in the Cuban province of Camaguey soon. Ike
should then move along or just south of the southern coast of
central Cuba today...move over western Cuba Tuesday...and emerge
into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ike is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Slight weakening is possible today until Ike moves back over water.
However...any deviation to the south of the track could keep Ike
over water longer resulting in some restrengthening during next day
or so. A reconnaissance aircraft will provide a better estimate of
Ike's intensity this afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles...325 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 9-12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern
coast of Cuba. Storm surge flooding of 1-3 feet...along with large
and dangerous waves...are possible in the Florida Keys.

Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of
the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days.
These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
currents.

Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches
over Cuba...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible over Jamaica...with 2
to 4 inches possible over the Cayman Islands and the southern
Bahamas. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over
the Florida Keys.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over the extreme southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys through tomorrow.

Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...21.1 N...78.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...960 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Avila
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Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:14:14 EDT

Cheese :

said by ropeguru :

Yeah... Shame that don't throw out all of the NHC and just let you forecast these things. Seems that you are always letting us know how right you are...

Me too! I am glad the real experts are wrong and kevin is right! ;)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:12:56 EDT

horsemouth : CNN has some great shots from Cuba it looks bad.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 11:04:24 EDT

ropeguru :

Yeah... Shame that don't throw out all of the NHC and just let you forecast these things. Seems that you are always letting us know how right you are...

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 10:49:43 EDT

jhh : Almost since this storm formed the models have been showing it going towards the nw. However it is about to reach the south west side of cuba and has yet to turn in this direction. Every time the models have been updated, they just extend the point of it turning another 6 hours ahead.

Until it actually turns, and not some brief wobble, these models may as well be thrown out. My prediction, it either heads straight west and runs over the Yucatan, shifts slightly and hits the tex/mex border. Or takes a dramatic turn and heads for the FL panhandle. Or the models after the 78th course change finally gets it right and it head for TX/LA. But in a couple hours the models will have to be changed because Ike is about to blow past their prediction path yet again.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 10:17:04 EDT

75307788 : NHC is way off. Ike is not going WNW and the track reflects that. It is going along my path across Cuba. Annoys me when they do not change the track to which way the system is really going. The cone should be West and then WNW-NW

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 07:21:08 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by brandon :

They've STILL got this thing pointed at NOLA as of this morning when everyone else says Texas.

Well it's far to early to tell, any small shift in it's path now, could cause major influences as to where it makes US land fall.

As for the news aspect a Huston would be a far greater impact than NOLA. Perhaps it's because they already have all the graphics made up for NOLA. If the storm goes into Huston, Gasoline prices in the SE (if not the whole country) will jump up $0.50-1.00 overnight.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 07:01:26 EDT

brandon : I seriously think weather.com/TWC does this for the ratings. They've STILL got this thing pointed at NOLA as of this morning when everyone else says Texas.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 05:58:43 EDT

SmokChsr : With the morning pics Ike do move inland in Cuba as forecast, So everything all predictions remain about the same. The 5 day prediction has it heading towards Huston.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 03:19:02 EDT

SmokChsr : As of the time we went into satellite eclipse (2345 Eastern) Ike was running the coast of Cuba, and had not actually crossed on shore. If he continues to do this, (following my right turn on land theory)It's going to push him to the right side of his projected track. That's not good news for the Keys. As usual it's a wait and see when the birds start taking pictures again.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 23:14:00 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,r]Looks more like Lake Charles area again....The Lows to the north will not pull Ike to the North like it was thought before.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 22:06:40 EDT

La Luna : The eye just made landfall on Cuba at approx 9:45PM EST.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 20:33:19 EDT

digitalfutur : Looking quite impressive on high res satellite....

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 19:40:12 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,r]Ike has been wobbling westward during the last several hours with an
initial motion estimate of 270/12. A turn toward the west-
northwest is expected tonight or Monday as the subtropical ridge to
its north weakens. In 2-3 days...a shortwave trough is forecast to
move through the eastern United States causing additional weakening
of the ridge and a reduction in Ike's forward speed. Most of the
dynamical models now show the trough bypassing Ike to the
north with a shortwave ridge building in its wake. This pattern
would result in a slight left turn toward the west-northwest at days
4 and 5 and make the Texas Coastline its target rather than Florida or New Orleans. Track models continue to trend southward and the official
forecast is nudged a little to the left. As Ike Passes over Cuba it will still be a very large threat to the Florida Keys with the southern Keys likely to experience large swells and surge and heavy rain beginning on Monday or Perhaps even tomorrow morning. However...one should not
focus too much on small changes in the track...and it is much too
early to anticipate which areas along the Gulf Coast could be
impacted by this system.

gdh-hinghamwx
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 17:47:21 EDT

anon : All my bets are on Houston TX.

Re: Hurricane Ike New Advisories: drops to cat 3

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 16:54:07 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,r]Ike is moving about 100 miles north of track.

Re: Hurricane Ike New Advisories

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 14:38:56 EDT

ghostpainter : Hurricane Ike Intermediate Advisory Number 26A...Corrected
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092008
200 Pm Edt Sun Sep 07 2008

...Corrected For Time...

...Eye Of Ike Just West Of Great Inagua Island...

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Turks And Caicos
Islands And The Southeastern Bahamas Including The Acklins...
Crooked Island...The Inaguas...Mayaguana...And The Ragged
Islands...And For The Central Bahamas Including Cat Island...The
Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...And San Salvador.

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of Villa
Clara...Sancti Spiritus...And Cienfuegos. A Hurricane Warning Is
Now In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of Guantanamo...Santiago De
Cuba... Holguin...Las Tunas And Granma...Camaguey...Ciego De
Avila....Villa Clara...Sancti Spiritus...And Cienfuegos. A
Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To
Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Cuban Provinces Of
Matanzas...La Habana...And Ciudad De Habana. A Hurricane Watch
Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch
Area...Generally Within 36 Hours.

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For The Florida Keys From Ocean Reef
Southward...Including The Dry Tortugas.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For Andros Island In The
Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Northern
Peninsula Of Haiti From The Northern Boarder With The Dominican
Republic To Gonaives.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Cayman Islands.

All Interests In The Remainder Of The Bahamas...Cuba...And South
Florida Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of This Potentially
Dangerous Hurricane.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 200 Pm Edt...1800Z...The Center Of Hurricane Ike Was Located
Near Latitude 20.9 North...Longitude 74.0 West Or Just West Of Great
Inagua Island And About 90 Miles...155 Km...East-Northeast Of
Guantanamo Cuba.

Ike Is Moving Toward The West Near 13 Mph...21 Km/Hr. A West To
West-Southwest Motion Is Expected To Continue This Afternoon With A
Turn Toward The West-Northwest Expected On Monday. On This
Track...The Core Of The Hurricane Will Move Away From The
Southeastern Bahamas This Afternoon And Move Near Or Over Eastern
Cuba Tonight...And Near Or Over Central Cuba Late Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 135 Mph...215 Km/Hr...With Higher
Gusts. Ike Is An Extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane On The
Saffir-Simpson Scale. Fluctuations In Strength Are Possible This
Afternoon And Tonight But Ike Is Expected To Remain A Major
Hurricane As It Approaches Eastern Cuba. Ike Is Expected To Weaken
As It Moves Over Eastern And Central Cuba On Monday.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 60 Miles...95 Km...From
The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 145
Miles...230 Km.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 949 Mb...28.02 Inches.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 13 To 18 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...Can Be
Expected Within The Warning Area In Areas Of Onshore Flow.

Large Swells Generated By Ike Will Affect Portions Of The Southeast
United States Coast During The Next Couple Of Days. These Waves
Could Generate Dangerous And Life-Threatening Rip Currents.

Rainfall Amounts Of 4 To 8 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of
12 Inches Are Expected Over The Turks And Caicos Islands And The
Southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola...And Eastern And Central Cuba
Could See 6 To 12 Inches Of Rain With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of
Up To 20 Inches Possible. These Rains Will Likely Cause
Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mudslides Over Mountainous
Terrain.

Repeating The 200 Pm Edt Position...20.9 N...74.0 W. Movement
Toward...West Near 13 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...135 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...949 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 500 Pm Edt.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/Beven
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 12:50:32 EDT

ghostpainter : You are welcome...

satellite imagery indicates that Ike has changed little during the
last 6 hours. The last pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 949 mb at 1100 UTC which was very
similar to previous fixes. The initial intensity is held at 115
kt. A recent SSMI overpass indicates that an outer rainband could
be forming an outer eyewall. However... eyewall replacement
cycles...including their impacts on intensity...are very difficult
to anticipate. Some fluctuations...either up or down...in
intensity is possible today before the center reaches eastern Cuba
tonight. Once inland...weakening is expected but the degree of
weakening depends on how long the center remains inland. The
latest official forecast keeps Ike inland for approximately 36
hours so significant weakening is shown. However...only a small
deviation from the forecast track could result in the center of Ike
moving back over water sooner. Ike is forecast to reach the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 2 days. Since the waters over
the Gulf are warm and the shear is not forecast to be high...
restrengthening is forecast.

Ike is being steered by a mid-level ridge extending from the western
Atlantic southwestward over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico with an
initial motion estimate of 265/13. Ike should move generally
westward for the next 12 hours or so...followed by a turn towards
the west-northwest. In 2-3 days...a shortwave trough will move
through the eastern United States causing some weakening of the
ridge and a reduction Ike's forward speed. Most of the dynamical
models forecast the trough to bypass the cyclone resulting in a
continued west-northwestward motion. Only the HWRF model shows
enough of a weakness materializing to turn Ike north-northwestward.
While this solution is possible...the official forecast leans more
toward the remaining dynamical models and is near or just north of
the model consensus. It is much too early to anticipate which
areas along the Gulf Coast could be impacted by this system.

Synoptic surveillance missions are currently being flown by the NOAA
G-IV...and this data...along with special soundings from National
Weather Service offices...are providing enhanced data into the
dynamical models.

Re: Hurricane Ike wind Radus Model

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 12:36:36 EDT

lilhurricane : Thank ya G :)

Re: Hurricane Ike wind Radus Model

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 12:31:23 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]Just for you Lisa...

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 11:33:45 EDT

lilhurricane : Whats the radius for wind probability (did I miss that somewhere? If so sorry)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 11:32:15 EDT

brandon : Called it. Looks like latest projection is putting this into LA/TX border.

Further evidence that keeping projections pointed at NOLA as long as possible gets ratings. :\

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 09:57:54 EDT

seqrets :

said by Budster :

If I can ever make it through this hurricane season.. I swear... I'm moving away from this place...

I know the feeling!

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 08:21:38 EDT

Hayward : No s aouthern storn is not going to be much surge... even at high tide...

The reef does well,

Wind and fresh water fooding maybe, but much easier tyo deal with vs SALT.

Again we are 7 ft on average above sea level and only one way out... Lived in NOLA soup bowl with MANY ways out.... I'd be out of there EVERY time.

Burt we are ABOVE not 16 ft below
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 07:58:23 EDT

tkdslr :

said by Hayward :

Well maybe you ought to think about Key West... oh yeah we are always in the forefront but TOTALLY for gotten after even when 70% flooded after Wilma, but just so maint TOOTHPICK power poles fell over up there... we were with full power in 48 hours despite the SALT flood.

That was a decision by the city leaders NOT to advertise Key West's plight(Storm surge Flood). They were afraid that knowledge would scare away the tourists.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 07:01:10 EDT

Hayward :

said by Budster :

If I can ever make it through this hurricane season.. I swear... I'm moving away from this place... Don't get me wrong.. I love tracking them, but I don't want them coming here.

Well maybe you ought to think about Key West... oh yeah we are always in the forefront but TOTALLY for gotten after even when 70% flooded after Wilma, but just so maint TOOTHPICK power poles fell over up there... we were with full power in 48 hours despite the SALT flood.

And by the way back to our last conversation... That Bermuda pretty much stays high... we like.

And though we are politically told to HATE CUBA.... so glad it is there.

Key West is a 2x4 mile SPEC of an island in a very blessed place... again gov BS hate CUBA rhetoric BS Geographically I LOVE IT
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 06:09:19 EDT

wxboss :

said by Budster :

If I can ever make it through this hurricane season.. I swear... I'm moving away from this place... Don't get me wrong.. I love tracking them, but I don't want them coming here.

I don't blame you one bit. I'm seriously looking to move myself. Not only because I hate hurricane season, but to be closer to my family which is scattered through Ohio and Virginia.

I've been in Florida for the last 19 years, and I'm ready to go.
--
"A study in the Washington Post says that women have better verbal skills
than men. I just want to say to the authors of that study: Duh."
--Conan O'Brien

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 05:27:26 EDT

75307788 : Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 7, 2008– 12:00am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Tracking map 9/7/08 - »www.owsweather.com/9708tsd.jpg

Ike is moving WSW and should begin to move West soon. Ike is a powerful Category four Hurricane and it could reach Category five status near the Turks into Cuba if projections continue. Current projections have not changed at all in the medium range which is good for when we plot the MOST PROBABLE landfall point when Ike is near Western Cuba.
At this time will not plot an exact landfall point due to many factors however Ike is going to be a Historical Hurricane in the Gulf Of Mexico and anyone along it should keep tuned to any forecasts they can from anywhere just to make sure you are taken care of.
OWS projections are taking Ike Across Cuba and into the Yucatan / Cuba Channel. This is near where Gustav went. What is in the medium range I am very confident in happening. I am confident Ike will stall somewhat in the Gulf Of Mexico. Why? Because two ridges of high pressure will be interacting with it. We stopped the track South of New Orleans on the last run.
We did not officially take the tracking map to any land spots until now. If Ike wants to follow this path, the two ridges will stall it on a loop current in which Ike will and can have power for a Category five type storm.
Like I said before, if we had a Category six Ike is the candidate for that type of storm. Ike then will be forced Westward towards the Texas Coastal zones.
This is a very large uncertainty but it is our preliminary and first mention of an official landfall point. Houston, TX.

More updates are sure to come from this.
Confidence in Ike hitting Cuba - High.
Confidence in Ike crossing the Yucatan / Cuba Channel - Medium - High.
Confidence in Ike stalling in the Gulf Of Mexico and rapidly gaining strength - Medium High.
Confidence exists on a medium level from FL Panhandle to TX Coastline. Right now am leaning West towards Houston, TX but in now way is this a final call and do not use it as such. It could very well happen and we are targeting this area right now as such.

K. MARTIN

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 03:10:03 EDT

Hayward :

said by Cozworth :

The Keys now look like instead of a direct hit that they will be a little (ED actually BIG) way off (still bad enough though) and the strength all the way through is a fair bit less until it hits the Gulf.

Oh please Its likely TS or maybe minimal hurricane impact at this point... is a normal summer BREEZE here... unless something MAJOR changes it will be miles past and maybe stop OBSESSING on EVERYONE IS DOOMED WX CH and CNN and MAYBE look at reality?

And even if it ends up worse than now appears we will be brushed not hit most likely.

I feel sorry for NOLAA though if track stays.... they did it (Evac) once after katrina.... will they do it again an month later???

The officials are even debating chnaging it from a mandatory to voluntary resid evacuation.

Mwaning town could be up an running for tourists on Thurs
even..
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 01:44:54 EDT

Budster : If I can ever make it through this hurricane season.. I swear... I'm moving away from this place... Don't get me wrong.. I love tracking them, but I don't want them coming here.
--
Laissez le bon temps rouler, encore!

Hurricane Ike

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 01:01:05 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l] Good Lord all mighty.... :huh:

Re: Hurricane Ike once again CAT 4

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 00:53:34 EDT

lilhurricane : 000
WTNT34 KNHC 070247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
--
~Safe Hex~ Team Discovery ~ Project Hope ~ Like A Hurricane~

Hurricane Ike once again CAT 4

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 22:42:30 EDT

ghostpainter : Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on September 06, 2008

...Core of dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Turk and Caicos
Islands...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas...including the Acklins...
Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for the central Bahamas...including Cat
Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...and Holguin.

Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to the
northern border with Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Northern
Peninsula of Haiti from the northern boarder with the Dominican
Republic to gonaives.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Camaguey.

All interests in the remainder of the Bahamas...Cuba...South
Florida...and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the progress
of this potentially dangerous hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST...0000z...the eye of Hurricane Ike was located near
latitude 21.3 north...longitude 70.2 west or about 60 miles...105 km
...East of Grand Turk island.

Ike has been moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph...18 km/hr
during the past few hours but Ike should resume a track between the
west and west-southwest at 15 mph...24 km/hr tonight. On this
track...the core of the hurricane is expected to pass near or over
the Turks and Caicos Islands shortly...and begin to affect the
southeastern Bahamas later tonight or early Sunday. Ike should
then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of
eastern Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in strength
are possible during the next 48 hours...but Ike is expected to
remain a major hurricane during this period.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km.

The minimum central pressure just reported by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 947 mb...27.96 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected in the warning area near and to the north to the of
the center of Ike.

Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast
United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves
could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and
southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches
possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides over mountainous terrain.

Repeating the 800 PM AST position...21.3 N...70.2 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135
mph. Minimum central pressure...947 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 15:31:36 EDT

anon : Like i had said 3-4 days ago that ike was going to enter the gulf of mexico without having a direct impact on southern florida. Well i was right!!! And now my bets are on This storm Impacting Texas.. a example is The great Galveston Storm of 1900. Im pretty sure that Ike will do the same impacting Galveston. Anyone agree?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 15:24:00 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]»msnbc.com: BREAKING NEWS: Hurricane Ike regains Category 3 strength

The Bermudan High is forcing Ike down on a lower track that will either have it skirting the coast of Cuba or going over Cuba which in the short term would weaken the storm.

What we are watching is the Bermuda High drifting east again and the High over the Western Gulf moving west. This should begin occurring lat Sunday Night. If this should happen then Ike would have the opportunity to shift track to the NW as it moves into the Gulf.

One model suggest that Ike could continue west into Mexico, but the rest of models all point to a Northern Impact Hit.

A note. The NHC center is directing us to inform people not to follow the black line as it is most confusing. Follow the entire cone and as it narrows that is the most reliable forecast tool to use.

gdh-hinghamwx.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:51:20 EDT

imtim83 :

said by nirvansk815 :

said by 75307788 :

It can be noted the Galveston Cane of 1900 spent must of the time over Cuba.

Thanks for the info. Here's a pic in case anyone else is curious.

Wow I never realized that but look at how many loop currents it went over! :o No wonder why it became such a strong hurricane.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:29:20 EDT

nirvansk815 :

said by 75307788 :

It can be noted the Galveston Cane of 1900 spent must of the time over Cuba.

Thanks for the info. Here's a pic in case anyone else is curious.
--
There's so much to be thankful for...How can anyone be sad?

track

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:22:32 EDT

75307788 : It can be noted the Galveston Cane of 1900 spent must of the time over Cuba.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:21:13 EDT

nirvansk815 : I hope I'm wrong. If Ike hits Cuba it would most definitely bring down his strength.
--
There's so much to be thankful for...How can anyone be sad?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:14:14 EDT

75307788 : I still see WSW. Might be the angle you are looking at. I'm running my server 100 loop frame and haven't see a true West movement as of yet.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:06:55 EDT

nirvansk815 :

said by 75307788 :

My forecast might be the most accurate one in the long range for Ike. Got a few media outlets watching my forecasts over the next few days. I called straight through Cuba days back and Ike is going to do just that. It never was a Key's threat to me.

IMO,the latest satellites seem to indicate Ike has started to move west.
--
There's so much to be thankful for...How can anyone be sad?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 14:04:45 EDT

75307788 : My forecast might be the most accurate one in the long range for Ike. Got a few media outlets watching my forecasts over the next few days. I called straight through Cuba days back and Ike is going to do just that. It never was a Key's threat to me.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:06:22 EDT

lilhurricane : Thank you.. I was looking for a new graph :)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:04:44 EDT

Cozworth : I am posting this because I am quite interested about how much further south the track is now compared to the Friday version that Ghostpainter posted yesterday.

The Keys now look like instead of a direct hit that they will be a little way off (still bad enough though) and the strength all the way through is a fair bit less until it hits the Gulf.

11am Saturday 5 Day Track Forecast

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:43:07 EDT

ghostpainter : Ike continues to experience some northeasterly shear and latest
Dvorak intensity estimates now suggest about 95 kt. Global models
indicate that the northeasterly shear will begin to relax later
today...and Ike is now forecast to track south of the cooler waters
upwelled by Hanna. Some restrengthening is anticipated in the
short-term and Ike could regain major hurricane status by tomorrow.
Ike is then expected to move over or very Cuba during the 36-72 hr
time frame which should result in some weakening. The degree of
weakening will depend largely on how close Ike tracks to land. By
day 4...Ike is forecast to emerge back over open waters in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Global models suggest the environment
will be favorable for strengthening and the ocean should be plenty
warm. The official forecast thus calls for Ike to restrengthen at
96 and 120 hr. Given the evolving atmospheric environment and land
interactions...the intensity forecast has lower than normal
confidence.

Ike is currently being steered by a large middle to upper-level
ridge over the western Atlantic near Bermuda and the cyclone
continues on a general west-southwestward heading with an initial
motion estimate of 255/15. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward
during the next couple of days allowing Ike to make a turn
westward. In 3 to 4 days...a shortwave trough moving over the
eastern United States is expected to create a weakness to the north
of Ike resulting a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest.
This shortwave trough will be a critical player in Ike's eventual
track at the extended ranges. Dynamical models are split into two
camps at this time...with some models showing the shortwave passing
sufficiently far to the north to keep Ike moving
west-northwestward...while other models show Ike turning northward
into the weakness. It is way too early to commit to either one of
these extended range solutions...and thus the new official forecast
is very close to the previous advisory.
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Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 10:30:57 EDT

wxboss : There's still quite a bit of uncertainty, and the NHC always emphasizes the possible innacurracies with the forecasts in the 4-5 day range.

A couple of atmospheric players (especially the High which currently extends into the Gulf) are not completely nailed down yet as to its influence or lack of later on next week.

This is the frustration that all of us feel who live in hurricane prone areas. Oftentimes, it's not until the storm gets too close that its path is better realized. The Floyd debacle here in Florida is a testament to that.
--
"A study in the Washington Post says that women have better verbal skills
than men. I just want to say to the authors of that study: Duh."
--Conan O'Brien

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 09:22:22 EDT

quatrix : Why does the forecasted track keep shifting in the same direction? Obviously there's high uncertainty and there are a lot of things we still don't know, but I would expect it to waver back and forth somewhat, similar to flipping a coin. The path has shifted to the south/southwest in each of the last few forecasts though. Does that suggest a major variable that the models don't take into account?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 09:22:07 EDT

brandon : My money's on Texas for this one. Every single day the northerly turn moves further and further west.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 09:12:14 EDT

vasta : great, another week of Katrina stories...

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:07:45 EDT

Splitpair :

said by seanrafa :

My timing sucks, let's hope for the best and that any destruction is minimal and no injuries to anyone.

BTW don't forget to bring a pair of scissors with you in case Geraldo needs his mustache trimmed. ;-)

Wayne
--
If you cannot fix it with a buttset and some beanies you ain't a technician.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 06:04:53 EDT

75307788 : Models are only as good as the data fed into them. Plotting these on charts is the best way to forecast for accuracy in the long range. Very old school stuff but it works.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:59:26 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by Otto :

Well it is possible, course the computers improve each year.

True, but more important than the improvement in computers is the quantity and quality of the data being provided for the models to chew on. In 64, the NWS didn't really know where Dora was, much less have any real time data on what she was doing. Only one Weather forecaster (George Winterling of WJXT in Jacksonville) correctly called that the storm would hit Florida. Behind the scenes few people know that George set up a network of people up and down the coast to watch the barometer readings and call them in hourly. (the barometers were makeshift something about using the water level in the toilet) With that he was able to determine the storm was coming in and not heading up the coast as predicted.

Now days with satellites, internet, personal weather stations, doppler radar, and all the other toys in use we have so much more data, it makes you wonder how they were able to do as good as was done in years past.

PS: George is Still on the Air at WJXT in Jax. »www.news4jax.com/newsteam/103648···ail.html

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:37:21 EDT

Otto : Well it is possible, course the computers improve each year. Funny thing is that Hanna didn't really fit the NHC's cone of uncertainty at all, it was more or less on the mark, but it was 4-500 miles off at times.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:33:34 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by Otto :

I've never seen all the models in such close agreement before.

I've seen them agree that closely on several storms, apparently the storm didn't know it had a predetermined path to follow and went merrily on its way along its own path.

I remember one about 10-15 years ago, that took a true 180 to the models. It was over an island so it was on radar, very clearly moving east at about 4-5 MPH, Yet all the models had it moving west, the NWS put out I think 2 advisories saying the storm was heading west at X MPH before they finally gave up and had to say the models were wrong and then storm is going the wrong way. The forecast discussion when they finally gave into the fact that the storm was not doing what they thought it would do was quite funny as they tried to explain.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:27:11 EDT

75307788 : Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 6, 2008– 2:00am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL
Tracking Map: »www.owsweather.com/9608tsd.jpg

Ike is moving West-Southwest still and is continuing on this path. No signs of a West movement at this time. This is going by my last forecast of Cuba being the land falling point. However, I think the Turks will take a major beating when Ike hits as a Category four or even a five. This isn't looking too good for those Islands as shear will not be a problem and Ike will enjoy the warmer waters there.
The question is whether Ike will curve across Northern Cuba and through the Florida Keys area or will it keep going West-Southwest through Cuba, actually making it to the Southern side and offshore? This has been our projection for the past 24 hours and it hasn't changed much at all. What did change was the tilt from a WSW to a more WWSW through Cuba. We are sticking with the Southern track scenario. We stopped it at the Cuban Channel between that and the Yucatan on our last update. We knew it was going in the Gulf Of Mexico but to what degree? If it follows this path right it will be a Category 2 South of Cuba, eventually exploding into a Major Hurricane again just West of where Gustav went to Category four. This could very will end up as a Category five Hurricane in the Gulf Of Mexico sometime around September 10-11-12th time-frame. We stopped it just short of the Gulf coast and the circles mean possible areas from there. New Orleans may very will be close to another hit.
This is still very far away and I'm sure tracks will change somewhat in the long run but if you live on the Gulf Coast, Ike is coming so prepare now. Don't wait.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 05:12:06 EDT

Otto : I've never seen all the models in such close agreement before. I would never let my guard down at this point (that turn to the north could occur too early), the general consensus from these models seems to place the core of the storm over Cuba and then into the Gulf. I do think the Keys being evac'd is the right idea, because more and more this thing could be a Cat 3 or 4 version of the famous Labor Day storm.

These models are hell-bent on that High to the East building strong over Florida and pushing Ike right into the Gulf... and to see this beast touch any low-lying land along the Gulf would be worse than a brush with storm-resistant S. Florida (granted all areas fair poorly against a Cat 3, but Miami's got an advantage to Louisiana, being we're not below sea level).

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:58:43 EDT

SmokChsr :

said by 75307788 :

Donna 1960

I sure hope it's not another Donna, She made a real mess out of Florida. That was back when the population was quite small, and those that were here knew how to handle a storm. If Donna struck today it would be a major disaster.

Besides I don't like Donna! she dropped a tornado on my house.

For those of us on the NE coast of Fl, a backside hit (like Donna) can be, and often is more damaging than a straight on hit like Dora in 1964. The reasoning behind this is with a back side hit the weather starts deteriorating 24-48 hours ahead of the storm. Heavy rain bands and wind in the feeders get everything soaked and loosened up long before the storm makes an appearance. That's not to mention as the feeder bands come on shore they tend to drag dozens of water spouts in with them, which of course figure out that they are now tornadoes and need to look for some houses (or trailer parks) to beat up on. When the storm finally arrives with its wind the trees fall over like dominoes, due to the ground saturation.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:40:16 EDT

Hayward :

said by MJimLay :

I see another Ivan or Dennis.

HOW???? BOTH DENNIS and IVAN came out of the Carribean... up through the W. Cuba-Yucatan slot.

And why they effected NOLA to W FL... IKE shoots through the straights statisically speaking it will be TX-MX strike... absolute eastern would be NOLA but rather unlikely unless it stalls and stews (like Katrina did) Even then it was B-Line N not eastern Gulf.

»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:38:16 EDT

Hayward :

said by outoftowner :

I am in Key West now with a flight out on Sunday. Should I be ok with the mandatory evac starting on Saturday morning? There are no flights out of Key West on Saturday. Also, I shouldn't have to worry about the weather right?

There will be no real influence at current forward motion until at least late Mon.

And actually with the recent not bulls eye changes they are even allowing the Women's week people to stay until Sunday when events are over... and when most of them had scheduled flights out anyways.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:35:18 EDT

Hayward :

said by A predictor :

Hmmmm does anyone see another Katrina?? Or is it gona be a Rita? What do yall think? My point of view i think a Rita because of the HIgh place nortwest of it.

No way Katrina, came aross the FL peninsula then dipped to Key West.

Much RITA like yes.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:34:17 EDT

Hayward :

said by shaner :

I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane track fit so neatly in the Florida Straits.

2005 RITA is that far out of memory is it???

Which was much more centered actually... that possibility of last min richochette off Cuba (like Georges did in 98) still bothers me especially if IKE is strong again, worries me more than the current center track constantly moving west of KW still several days out.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 02:09:30 EDT

MJimLay :

said by A predictor :

Hmmmm does anyone see another Katrina?? Or is it gona be a Rita? What do yall think? My point of view i think a Rita because of the HIgh place nortwest of it.

I see another Ivan or Dennis.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 01:52:39 EDT

75307788 : Donna 1960

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 01:46:31 EDT

anon : I am in Key West now with a flight out on Sunday. Should I be ok with the mandatory evac starting on Saturday morning? There are no flights out of Key West on Saturday. Also, I shouldn't have to worry about the weather right?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 01:31:03 EDT

anon : Hmmmm does anyone see another Katrina?? Or is it gona be a Rita? What do yall think? My point of view i think a Rita because of the HIgh place nortwest of it.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 00:17:29 EDT

shaner :

Snapped 2008-09-06 00:17:35

»www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane track fit so neatly in the Florida Straits.

Ike Heads for Possible New Orleans Strike

Sat, 06 Sep 2008 00:12:22 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]Ike continues to move briskly west-southwestward at about 14 kt.
Ike is being steered in that direction due to a mid-level ridge that
extends from near Bermuda southwestward between Ike and Hanna.
This ridge is forecast to gradually shift northward during the next
couple of days. As this happens...Ike is expected to gradually turn
more westward. The track guidance has come into better agreement
on this solution...and has once again shifted south and westward.
In fact...most of the reliable guidance now takes Hanna either over
or along the north coast of Cuba. The new track has been shifted
south and westward of the previous advisory...and it is also a
little faster. It should be noted...that the dynamical model
consensus and several of the individual models are southwest
of the 4 and 5 day NHC positions and if this trend continues
some additional westward shift could be required.

The northeasterly shear currently disrupting the hurricane is
forecast to abate during the next 12 to 24 hours. Since
Ike...still appears to be a very healthy hurricane...little if any
additional weakening is expected before it reaches the southeastern
Bahamas. Beyond 36 hours...the shear is forecast to be very light
and the only negative factor for strengthening will be possible land
interaction. With the official track prediction along the northern
coast of Cuba...it shows only slight weakening due to land.
However...Ike could be weaker than shown below if the center
moves over Cuba...and conversely could be a little stronger if it
remains over water.

The high over the Gulf of Mexico will be shifting to the west. This will allow Ike to head for the Florida Panhandle and points west including a possible strike in New Orleans.

Weatherunderground, gdh-hinghamwx
--
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»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:35:28 EDT

Dogwood :

said by quatrix :

At what point do they start providing updated forecasts every 3 hours instead of every 6 hours? Once it's within 3 days of the U.S. or something like that?

When hurricane warnings are posted for the continental US, not watches or TS warnings or watches.
--
Proud Member of Team Discovery

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 19:41:37 EDT

ghostpainter : Once Ike settles down and we can see where the highs, lows and dry air is then we can start getting a bead as to where it is going. I would think Tuesday Morning we should start to see where Ike is going, perhaps Monday night if it speeds up.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 19:35:26 EDT

quatrix :

said by vasta :

so this thing is going to curve and head right through florida or is it going to ride the coast?

If anyone could answer that with high certainty this far out, they'd win the Nobel.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 19:33:29 EDT

quatrix : At what point do they start providing updated forecasts every 3 hours instead of every 6 hours? Once it's within 3 days of the U.S. or something like that?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:53:01 EDT

Hayward :

said by seanrafa :

I am suppose to arrive in the Keys, next Thursday for a much needed vacation, Is it likely that Ike will have passed through at that point in time? My timing sucks, let's hope for the best and that any destruction is minimal and no injuries to anyone.

As It is supposed to get here Weds sometime at this point, likely Island would be closed on Thurs, even if not much happens.

5pm update just came out and the 5 day track is continuing to slip west, so with a little luck it may pass south of us and into the Gullf with only minimal hurricane wind impact.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:33:33 EDT

ghostpainter : Anyone in the Keys should start packing just in case...Latest tracking suggests the Ike will pass through the lower Keys or even skirt Havana with 150 mph winds driving a wave surge of 40 feet in front of it.

Thats about as close as we can can accurately get right now.

If you have a bomb shelter, stock up now and stay safe if you decide to stay and have a Hurricane Party.
--
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»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:26:51 EDT

pcdebb :

said by shaner :

If it curves like NHC thinks, that will take it right up Tampa Bay.

First New Orleans, then Tampa. New York would be third based on the list of most vulnerable cities.

I've been watching that and I'm not liking what my eyes are seeing. times like this i WISH i had a vision problem :(
--
a time for change... | 1st & 10 | Ham is good

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:22:04 EDT

sansri88 : That latest map shows it going through the lower Keys..but it's still a while off till it does that so the path can change quite a bit.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:19:29 EDT

vasta : so this thing is going to curve and head right through florida or is it going to ride the coast?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:19:00 EDT

ghostpainter : We have Josephine to worry about and another wave coming off of Africa now.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:01:02 EDT

sansri88 : I concur.

I would consider changing your travel plans.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 16:00:16 EDT

Cheese :

I would say at this point, timing may be bad.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:58:58 EDT

anon : I am suppose to arrive in the Keys, next Thursday for a much needed vacation, Is it likely that Ike will have passed through at that point in time? My timing sucks, let's hope for the best and that any destruction is minimal and no injuries to anyone.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 14:56:51 EDT

Cheese : Video, on CNN, from the ISS.

»www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weathe···pace.cnn

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 14:54:06 EDT

shaner : If it curves like NHC thinks, that will take it right up Tampa Bay.

First New Orleans, then Tampa. New York would be third based on the list of most vulnerable cities.
--
The opinions in this post are wholly my own and in no way reflect the opinions of, or are influenced by my employer.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:40:40 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]Northerly shear continues to a take a toll on Ike. Satellite images
show that the eye has become less clear and that most of the
convection is in the southern semicircle. In addition...a recent
ssmis microwave image shows that the eyewall is open on the north
side. Using a blend of the objective and subjective Dvorak
classifications...the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt...and
this could be generous. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane
is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this afternoon to obtain
a better estimate of the current intensity and wind radii. Almost
all of the global models show decreasing shear over Ike in about a
day due to a weakening of strong northeasterly upper winds. Except
for a small patch of SSTs near and north of the southeastern
Bahamas...waters are very warm along the forecast path. The
official forecast shows a slow weakening of the hurricane due to
the shear for the first 24 hours...then shows intensification as
upper-winds slacken...in general agreement with the lgem model. In
a couple days...vertical wind shear will likely become light...and
conditions look rather favorable for intensification. The official
forecast could be conservative in the longer-range as the HWRF and
GFDL show a more intense hurricane. Regardless of exactly how
strong it is...all signs are that Ike will be a dangerous hurricane
for days to come.

Ike has been moving south of west during the past few hours...about
260/14. This general track with some decrease in forward speed is
forecast over the next 36 hours due to a strong ridge wedging into
between Ike and Hanna. The ridge should weaken somewhat in a couple
of days...steering the hurricane more to the west and eventually
west-northwest. However...models are not in good agreement on when
this west-northwest motion could materialize. Generally the models
that drive the system farther south...such as the ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL
models...suggest the ridge will remain intact enough to eventually
send Ike toward Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The
UKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...on the other hand...suggest the hurricane will
move more the west and has a better chance of being affected by a
weakness in the ridge around 80w. Since the hurricane is moving
well south of the latter cluster of models already...the official
forecast leans more toward the southern guidance and shifted
southwest of the previous forecast.
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:23:28 EDT

75307788 : NHC is tracking more along my track, however they curve it under Florida into the Gulf. The intersection before my track is what will play this story. Cuba and through? Or curve before Cuba and South of Florida like NHC says...It's a close one but they are NOW on my track for a couple days.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:24:49 EDT

KeysCapt :

said by ropeguru :

Keeps moving further south and west on the track. Keep going, keep going...

Wow, yeah, that's a good sign.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 10:52:37 EDT

ropeguru : Keeps moving further south and west on the track. Keep going, keep going...

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 10:47:55 EDT

pcdebb :

said by KeysCapt :

I think this one might have our number.

yea, sure looks like it. Not looking good for south florida, but even up here I'll feel the effects. Have to see exactly what it does, alot of the models seem to suggest it's heading towards the gulf after hitting the peninsula
--
a time for change... | 1st & 10 | Ham is good

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 10:24:20 EDT

quatrix :

said by dslwanter :

If the ridge stays strong and in place, I expect a dive towards Cuba, if it at least stays moderate expect a turn towards the keys and if it weakens expect a turn towards the northwest and a big impact on South Florida.

Who says it can't dive toward Cuba AND turn northwest toward South Florida (exactly what the forecasts have been predicting)?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:24:01 EDT

KeysCapt : The lines are already forming at the gas pumps, some pumps have the "sorry" bags on them, and the grocery stores are starting to get nuts. Went to Home Depot this morning and the order of the day was carts with gas cans and propane tanks, and the usual line of trucks loading up with plywood.

I think this one might have our number.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:18:19 EDT

dslwanter : I'll agree with boss here and anyone from South Florida clear down to Cuba needs to start making preparations. Don't be fooled by the fact that Ike is currently getting hammered with shear, this will likely cause the storm to weaken a bit today and tomorrow, but he'll become healthy again once he gets a dose of light shear and warm waters as he heads west. Depending on what the ridge does that is moving into south Florida after Hanna will depend on where Ike goes. If the ridge stays strong and in place, I expect a dive towards Cuba, if it at least stays moderate expect a turn towards the keys and if it weakens expect a turn towards the northwest and a big impact on South Florida.

The point is, you're dealing with a major hurricane, DO NOT wait until there's a definite land impact forecast to prepare.
--
Need a DJ within 60 miles of Youngstown, OH? Check out my service: »www.thebomb102djservice.com

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 08:57:47 EDT

wxboss :

said by Hayward :

That is the hard thing about an east approching storm, as only one way out of the Keys east means moving into it, to escape.
Much compacting the timeline.

The Southerly (Carribean...Like Gustave) and west passing storms are much easier to deal with, as you can run perpendicular or in front of them.

You've made some good points about folks in the Keys and an encroaching Atlantic storm. Decisions and evacuations have to be made sooner than other locations as your evac routes are extremely limited with an approach like this.

I hope you're making preparations - this storm shouldn't be messed with.
--
"A study in the Washington Post says that women have better verbal skills
than men. I just want to say to the authors of that study: Duh."
--Conan O'Brien

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 04:59:57 EDT

75307788 : Tropical Weather Service
Tropical-Scale-Discussion
Ontario, California
September 5, 2008– 1:30am PDT
CURRENT - OFFICIAL

Going to keep Tropical Storm Hanna as a Tropical Storm at landfall and a final landfall near or at North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. This storm is expected to cause heavy rainfall and gusty winds. A strong storm surge is not anticipated.
Ike is the main story now. Did some plotting against the models and came out with interesting results. Ike is still far away from any major land areas, however it is a Category 4 right now. I expect this to weaken down to a Category 3 over the next 24-36 hours. After this it should stop the West movement and go West-Southwest. Am thinking that it will intensify to a Category 4 sometime on Sunday as it maintains a West-Southwest motion straight for Cuba. The intensity may very well intensify so much on Sunday - Monday that it could reach Category 5 Status then. It would still be heading West-Southwest toward Cuba. It will plow through the Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 5 hurricane sometime Early Monday, and Cuba Late Monday into Tuesday as a Category 4 or 5.
This is where it gets interesting. Most global models want to take Ike into Florida as a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane. Mine wants to develop a ridge over Florida, and guide Ike through Cuba, actually making it on the other side, missing Jamaica to the Northwest and continuing West again toward the Yucatan. It then curves back to the Northwest near the Yucatan / Cuba Channel on the latest part of my plot. This is interesting and it should be watched over the days for a possible scenario such as that. It would save Florida from that direct hit.
If it does not follow this, and a ridge fails to move over Florida at the crucial time, Ike will be taken into Miami and Cape Canaveral, FL as a Category 4 or 5 Hurricane. The split point is indeed Northeast Cuba. This is when Ike will decide which way to go. It's where NHC, the global models, and others disagree with my plot. They go into Florida. I want to take Ike straight through Cuba, not a glancing blow...Time will tell...
If you live in Florida, listen to your local media and prepare if needed. Ike is still days out and conditions can rapidly change the track at anytime.

K. MARTIN

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 01:45:01 EDT

Hayward : Even though the bulls eye is still so far MAI/FTL...cone has moved much to the west. Monroe county emergency management is meeting in (FRI) the morning.

My Guess is all tourist will be tossed out as of Sat Morning.

That is the hard thing about an east approching storm, as only one way out of the Keys east means moving into it, to escape.
Much compacting the timeline.

The Southerly (Carribean...Like Gustave) and west passing storms are much easier to deal with, as you can run perpendicular or in front of them.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Fri, 05 Sep 2008 00:02:28 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]Ike the one eyed monster, is the nickname given by some meteorologist...It reminds me of Andrew. :huh:

These are some of the risk assements assigned to Ike. He is 117 hrs out from Florida.

Intense Hurricane IKE is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Turks & Caicos Islands
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
the Bahamas
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Cuba
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
the United States
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours
Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 93 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 93 hours
West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 117 hours
Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 93 hours
Key West (24.7 N, 81.8 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours
Santa Clara (22.4 N, 80.0 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 93 hours
Fort Myers (26.6 N, 81.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 117 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 117 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Dominican Republic
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Haiti
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)
probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit »www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:30:28 EDT

lilhurricane : wowza

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:23:07 EDT

ghostpainter : I have to be Honest...I think Ike will enter the Gulf, whether it be through the Keys or over southern Florida. But there is a high over the western Gulf that is being held in place by a low trough in the Middle of the country.

And the dry air over the keys might steer Ike right up the spine of Florida again, just like Fay, except much stronger.

If the low lifts out by Monday as expected then Ike has a better chance of moving over the Gulf. But it is simply to far away with to many variables in place to say where he is headed.

Gustav was actually an easier storm to predict.
--
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»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 19:03:08 EDT

anon : Ghost Painter i know its to soon to actually call this but in your point of view and based on what you think and conclude from latest models what are the chances of this Cyclone entering the Gulf and maybe impacting texas?

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:49:31 EDT

ghostpainter : Hanna is actually shoving the dry air and the high to the west which will allow Ike to move into the Gulf or even worse hit just south of Miami just like Andrew did.

To see what I mean click on this link. You must have Java installed to watch.

»www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:38:28 EDT

anon : Yes very true and i dont go against that. I clearly pointed out south florida. The question is weather it enters the gulf of mexico. Because its impossible for a hurricane to go straight into a high pressure. So wel will see

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:31:24 EDT

vasta : Predictor, looks like most point it right at Florida...

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:25:16 EDT

KeysCapt :

quote:
According to Meteorologist Matt Makens, Ike developed into a dangerous hurricane Thursday and its forecasted path takes it on a course for Florida. Makens says Ike is one of the fastest developing tropical systems in history. Ike developed from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in a matter of hours and will likely be one of the top five fastest developing hurricanes ever recorded.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:13:05 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]If you look at my models I have been posting about the dry air and the highs moving to block a northward turn after Hanna you will see that's what I have written before.

This tracking map reflects a deepening high and the movement to the west.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12...slower than before and a
little to the left. Ridging from the central Atlantic is forecast
to build to the north and northwest of the tropical cyclone...
causing a west...and then west-southwest motion of Ike by late
tomorrow. The strength of the ridging between Ike and Hanna will
be critical to when an eventual turn toward the west-northwest will
occur in the long-range. There has been a noticeable westward
shift in almost all of the global model guidance today...with the
GFDL/ECMWF even taking the system as far southwest as Cuba. The
other models are pretty clustered on a track near or through the
central and northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast is shifted
westward and is pretty close to the HWRF model.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 17:53:07 EDT

anon : Omg all of u guys are so trying to be scientific!! Look we live in 21st century u cant trust all the models cuz models take a accurate guess!! so obvious.... but i can tell you that it will impact south florida because of the high building up northwest of it.. then enter the gulf of mexico by that time the high should be moving east towards the atlantic so IKE would turn WNW or NW u know impacting texas by houston somewhat...

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 17:03:18 EDT

tkdslr :

said by ropeguru :

000

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POSITIONS BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT

I sure hope those uncertainties arrive to save my day.
Because that's 128HR 26.0N 80.0W ... Cat 4 arriving ~midnight @ my front door!! Yikes!!!

Flashback from 16 years ago.. Hurricane Andrew Cat-4 was lined up in the WPB/Broward county line headed due west. 24 hours later it had drifted south by 40 miles and went into Southern Dade County.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:43:17 EDT

ropeguru : 000
WTNT44 KNHC 042032
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY. IT IS
INTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE
CLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE
SHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH
THE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM
WATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN
RESTRENGTHENING. THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
IT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE
LOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT. RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST
TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
CAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE
TOMORROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL
BE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD
SHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE
GFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA. THE
OTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS
BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 23.6N 58.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W 105 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W 95 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W 95 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W 110 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:29:28 EDT

ropeguru : Oh, most definitely... Since I am working at Everglades NP and on the Hurricane incident management team, I certainly make sure that everyone understand that a lot of things can change between now and then. I won't get too hyped up until about two to three days out. Still preparing though.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:24:59 EDT

anon : Does anyone know of an accurate and up to date source for weather maps with high and low areas delineated? I feel that these are particular important in tracking hurricanes and any help would be greatly appreciated.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:12:56 EDT

wxboss : It doesn't look good now, but it still is a ways away. Preparation and watchfulness is what's needed at this point.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:06:31 EDT

ropeguru : Looking at the 2PM model initializations on weather underground, things don't look good for S. FL. Only two of the models keep it off us.

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:03:20 EDT

quatrix :

said by Hayward :

said by quatrix :

The last time I checked, Key West was very close to the Caribbean. And the latest 5-day forecast, though highly uncertain, has it headed straight for South Florida as a Category-4. The earlier forecast had it "diving" at the end of the 5-day span but didn't show anything after that.

No Actually KW is SUB Tropic, and 90+ miles north of our geographic protectorate for storms from the South Cuba.
The Carribean begins south of Cuba, to CA, SA, and east the Leeward Ilses.

Yeah and now look like they think Ike's gotten a sniff of Hannah and is going to play chase the leader....

Point is you really don't know until 36 hours out at all certainly and for Ghost to label this thread as he did MANY THOUSANDS of MILES out in the Atlantic and a WEEK+ out was just plain rediculous.

I guess you missed the "VERY CLOSE" part of my post. But you're right about the high uncertainty.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 12:37:43 EDT

Catman : The speed at which it strengthened. Wilma blossomed overnight, so did Ike.

Hurricane Ike

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 11:38:37 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1][att=2]

Ike continues to display a well-defined eye with very cold cloud
temperatures in the eyewall. However the cloud pattern is now
asymmetric due to some northerly shear affecting the cyclone.
Objective and subjective Dvorak classifications have come down a
little bit so the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. Global
models unanimously increase the shear over Ike and keep strong
northeasterly winds near the cyclone for the next few days. This
pattern should induce a steady weakening. In addition...inner-
core eyewall cycles could occur...which could weaken Ike as well.
In the longer-term...the shear is forecast to relax and some
strengthening could occur. However...depending on the exact track
of Ike...the hurricane could be impacted by cooler waters near the
southeastern Bahamas that have been stirred up by Hanna. The
official forecast is lower than the previous one but still shows
Ike as a powerful hurricane throughout the period.

Ike continues to move west-northwestward...at about 290/14...a
little slower than before. A Bend toward the west and west-
southwest seems probable as a high builds in to the northwest of
Ike. The strength of the high is the big question mark for first
part of this forecast with the models becoming increasingly
divergent. The models have split into two general camps this
morning. The UKMET/GFS/HWRF allow the cyclone to gain a little more
latitude initially...then show less of a west-southwestward motion
over the next several days. However another group of models...
comprised of the NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...show a faster turn toward
the west and west-southwest and suggest more of a threat to the
Bahamas. With credible models in each group...it is probably best
to stay fairly close to the overall model consensus. The official
NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is near a
bias-corrected global model consensus.

Because of the uncertainties in 4- and 5-day track forecasts...it is
still too early to say what land areas are likely to be impacted by
this hurricane. However interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands
and the southeastern Bahamas should be monitoring the progress of
Ike.
--
My Bloggs,
»www.insidetheie.com/ »earthlogii.blogspot.com/ »vietaffairsvets.blogspot.com/
A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 10:48:17 EDT

wxboss : The latest NHC track.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 08:38:39 EDT

wxboss : Ike does look like he's on the heels of Hanna who I think was hanging around and waiting on him, only to get impatient and move on ;).

Ike is forecast at this point to move around the High as Hanna is, but there is forecast to be a weakness on the western periphery of the High around the time Ike is forecast to be on that side of the High. The big question is how much of a weakness in the High will develop, and how will Ike react to it.

Stay tuned.
--
"A study in the Washington Post says that women have better verbal skills
than men. I just want to say to the authors of that study: Duh."
--Conan O'Brien

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 08:28:00 EDT

ropeguru : I agree and so dies NHC. Looks like it is trying to track parallel to Hannah once it get is closer but a little more to the west and over the Bahamas. Although, we are a long ways out.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 07:48:16 EDT

SmokChsr : I think we'll see some weakening of Ike as he gets to the area that Hanna has been hanging out for the past several days. She's had to of cooled the waters in that area quite a bit, and as a result will cause Ike some troubles.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:59:54 EDT

Hayward : OK especially as compact and strong as it is staying I can see the Andrew comparison...though more wandering, and Andrew didn't really bloom til the last min., not near a week out. But how Wllma???

Nothing in common with that one track or anything else. It went through the Carribean, hit MX and sat there as stongest storm ever recorded for over 24 hrs, and then bounced back at the Keys and FL from the West.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 05:00:44 EDT

Catman : This one reminds me of a mini Wilma. I have an eerie feeling that it may be an Andrew repeat. Cat 5 into southern FL, but early next week.

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:12:50 EDT

Hayward :

said by quatrix :

The last time I checked, Key West was very close to the Caribbean. And the latest 5-day forecast, though highly uncertain, has it headed straight for South Florida as a Category-4. The earlier forecast had it "diving" at the end of the 5-day span but didn't show anything after that.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 02:15:43 EDT

Otto : Not looking wonderful for the Bahamas and Florida at this point in time, but it's a tad too early to get an accurate picture. Just the same, I'm going to fill my car's tank tomorrow before people realize there's a Cat-4 monster out there.

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:49:39 EDT

sansri88 : Rapid intensification...haven't seen a storm get this strong that fast lately...

Re: Hurricane Ike heads for Key West and Gulf

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:44:16 EDT

pcdebb : wow, it was just a cat1 at 5pm :huh:

Re: Hurricane Ike--Upgraded to Cat 4

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:26:43 EDT

75307788 : Either curving out to sea or weakening as it approaches where Hanna dropped a lot of rain to cool somewhat the water surface etc.

Hurricane Ike--Upgraded to Cat 4

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:15:59 EDT

sansri88 :
453
WTNT34 KNHC 040253
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST OR ABOUT 610 MILES...
980 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.1 N...54.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
25 HD channels compared to the average 32 or so.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 23:15:33 EDT

quatrix :

said by Budster :

115mph

Nope, Category 4 and 135 as of 11 PM.

Re: Hurricane Ike

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 22:48:53 EDT

anon : Well to my census it seems that ike will follow the models trail since the high pressure ridge building up just northwest of it. therefore its gona pound south florida as major hurricane then enter Gulf of Mexico, become another katrina and keep the west track.. passing by new orleans sayin nah forget them i dont wanna make the army core of enginers look like idiots... and then once the high pressure starts moving east ike will turn a bit NW or WNW impacting texas.. where? maybe Houston. ANyone got a better Bet???

Hurricane Ike

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 20:41:28 EDT

Budster : 115mph

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 20:24:16 EDT

quatrix :

said by Hayward :

At the 11pm, still seems to be most models diving for the Carribean... not that we aren't paying attention in KW. And actually the longer Hannah takes to make up her mind to move North the better.

The last time I checked, Key West was very close to the Caribbean. And the latest 5-day forecast, though highly uncertain, has it headed straight for South Florida as a Category-4. The earlier forecast had it "diving" at the end of the 5-day span but didn't show anything after that.

Hurricane Ike Special Advisory

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 19:51:29 EDT

sansri88 : 148
WTNT34 KNHC 032345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
25 HD channels compared to the average 32 or so.

Hurricane Ike Discussion Number 10

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 17:08:15 EDT

ghostpainter : Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2008

As anticipated...Ike has continued to strengthen and all
satellite-based estimates say it has become a hurricane. Since the
1800 UTC Dvorak estimates of 65 kt...an eye has become apparent in
late-day visible imagery...so the intensity is set to 70 kt. The
cyclone is intensifying within a cocoon of nearly zero vertical
wind shear...in between the deep-layer low over the northwestern
Atlantic and an upper-level trough dominating the eastern portion
of the basin. Water vapor imagery reveals that the upper-level
northerlies along the western flank of the eastern trough are
starting to just slightly restrict Ike's outflow. Global models
forecast the shear to increase from the east...but probably not
quickly enough to halt Ike's intensification trend in the short
term. The new official forecast shows an intermediate intensity
peak at 24 hours prior to the onset of the shear...followed by
slight weakening until the shear abates after Ike gets farther
west. By that time...in about 72 hours...ocean and atmospheric
factors become quite conducive for intensification...and the
dynamical models GFDL and HWRF...forecast a major hurricane by days
4 and 5...which is also shown in the official forecast. Long-range
intensity forecasts are rather uncertain...however...and the
intensity probability table included in this advisory package
indicates that there is roughly a 50 percent chance that Ike will
be a major hurricane four and five days from now. If Ike is weaker
than the official forecast at days 3-5...then the
statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and lgem will turn out to be
more accurate.

The hurricane continues heading west-northwestward or 290/16. As
the large and deep-layer low currently just off the northeast
U.S. Coast departs to the northeast...mid-level ridging will build
over the western Atlantic...which will push Ike generally westward
during the next several days. Undulations in the track are
likely though. Ike should continue west-northwestward until the
western Atlantic ridge forms...after which the tropical cyclone
will gradually round that ridge. The big question at longer ranges
is if and when Ike will rotate around the western periphery of that
ridge...which will determine whether Ike directly affects any land
areas. The models do not provide an unanimous answer...which is
not surprising this far in advance. All of the models do show the
beginnings of a motion north of due west by day 5...but it is too
early to determine if this is the start of recurvature...or if
enough ridging will remain beyond day 5 to keep Ike moving
generally westward.
--
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Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Hurricane Ike

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 16:53:32 EDT

sansri88 : 222
WTNT34 KNHC 032046
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE
AFFECTED BY IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
25 HD channels compared to the average 32 or so.

Ike almost a Hurricane and moving west

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:21:22 EDT

ghostpainter : Tropical Storm Ike Advisory Number 9
Nws Tpc/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092008
1100 Am Ast Wed Sep 03 2008

...Ike Almost A Hurricane...

At 1100 Am Ast...1500Z...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ike Was
Located Near Latitude 20.8 North...Longitude 51.2 West Or About 740
Miles...1190 Km...East-Northeast Of The Leeward Islands.

Ike Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 18 Mph...30 Km/Hr...And
This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Thursday...
Followed By A Turn To The West On Friday...Taking Ike
Over The Open Waters Of The West-Central Atlantic During The Next
Couple Of Days. It Is Too Early To Determine What If Any Land Areas
Might Be Directly Affected By Ike.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 70 Mph...110
Km/Hr...With Higher Gusts. Strengthening Is Forecast During The
Next Day Or Two...And Ike Is Forecast To Become A Hurricane Later
Today.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km
From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 991 Mb...29.26 Inches.

Repeating The 1100 Am Ast Position...20.8 N...51.2 W. Movement
Toward...West-Northwest Near 18 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...70
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...991 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Pm Ast.

$$
Forecaster Knabb
--
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Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 09:16:55 EDT

lilhurricane : 000
WTNT34 KNHC 030834
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED
RECENTLY...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 835 MILES...
1340 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN
NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...20.6 N...49.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
--
~Safe Hex~ Team Discovery ~ Project Hope ~ Like A Hurricane~

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 23:08:12 EDT

pcdebb :

said by Hayward :

And actually the longer Hannah takes to make up her mind to move North the better.

Though long enough they might merge... then who knows.

i was thinking about that. Hanna is just kinda hanging out but Ike is making a serious move across the map. he's gonna catch up if she doesnt do something
--
a time for change... | 1st & 10 | Ham is good

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 22:55:20 EDT

Hayward : At the 11pm, still seems to be most models diving for the Carribean... not that we aren't paying attention in KW. And actually the longer Hannah takes to make up her mind to move North the better.

Though long enough they might merge... then who knows.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 16:49:04 EDT

sansri88 : 734
WTNT34 KNHC 022041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES
...1655 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.2 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB
--
Sriram Satish
Comcast of NJ II sucks. Period.
25 HD channels compared to the average 32 or so.

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 12:01:35 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]I am basing my tracking on the fact that the Bermuda High will move in behind Hanna and set up a blocking pattern that will steer Ike right into the Florida Straights or even along the spine of the Caribbean Islands.

Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 03:28:14 EDT

Hayward : Re: TS (IKE) heads for Key West and Gulf

OK come on its so far out who can say.... and NOT one Model line in your OP shows it doing so, more like playing follow the leader with Hannah, up the east coast if not just mid Atlantic.

Can't we ever for something to actually pattern develope before wildly speculating.

Even the second one not a bulls eye... might strangely enough by those models shoot the DR/Haiti-Cuba Slot, and go into the Caribbean.

That far out Hannah looked just about the same way... first maybe diving into Cuba... or heading north talk about covering all bets.
--
»haywardm.com (Hayward's Key West)

Ike to be Hurricane in 36 hrs heads for Gulf of Mexico

Mon, 01 Sep 2008 22:36:28 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]satellite images that the cloud pattern associated with the
depression has continued to become better organized. The convection
has increased...curved bands are becoming more distinct
and the outflow is fair in all quadrants. Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this
basis...the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ike with an
initial intensity of 45 knots. Given the warm ocean along its path
and the low shear...Ike is forecast to reach hurricane status in
about 36 hours. The rate of strengthening is consistent with the
SHIPS model guidance but much lower than the GFDL and significantly
lower than the HWRF. The latter makes Ike an intense hurricane
north of Hispaniola.

Ike is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 14 knots. The storm
is already located south of a strong subtropical ridge which is
building and expanding westward according to most of the global
models. This pattern calls for a general west to west-northwest
track for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter...as the high builds
farther westward...the cyclone could turn more to the west or even
west-southwest . The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one and follows the model consensus. Since the track
guidance continues to be rather tight...the forecast confidence
remains relatively high.
--
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A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Re: TS (IKE)

Mon, 01 Sep 2008 17:51:40 EDT

75307788 : Dvorak Scale means nothing. It's like an IR satellite image. Doesn't say what Cat it is. I've see Dvorak of 4.0 on a Depression. It's such a poor indicator of strength It's not even funny.

Re: TS (IKE)

Mon, 01 Sep 2008 17:25:42 EDT

ghostpainter : satellite images that the cloud pattern associated with the
depression has continued to become better organized. The convection
has increased...curved bands are becoming more distinct
and the outflow is fair in all quadrants. Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have increased to 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this
basis...the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ike with an
initial intensity of 45 knots. Given the warm ocean along its path
and the low shear...Ike is forecast to reach hurricane status in
about 36 hours. The rate of strengthening is consistent with the
SHIPS model guidance but much lower than the GFDL and significantly
lower than the HWRF. The latter makes Ike an intense hurricane
north of Hispaniola.

Ike is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 14 knots. The storm
is already located south of a strong subtropical ridge which is
building and expanding westward according to most of the global
models. This pattern calls for a general west to west-northwest
track for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter...as the high builds
farther westward...the cyclone could turn more to the west or even
west-southwest . The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one and follows the model consensus. Since the track
guidance continues to be rather tight...the forecast confidence
remains relatively high.
--
My Bloggs,
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A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

TS (IKE)

Mon, 01 Sep 2008 12:18:57 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 01, 2008

satellite images and surface data indicate that the low pressure
area associated with a tropical wave that has been tracked over the
eastern tropical Atlantic for the past few days has become better
organized. The system has developed plently of convection..numerous
cyclonically curved bands and a well established outflow. Dvorak
T-numbers support tropical storm intensity at this time but I would
rather wait to see if the deep convection holds for while to call it
a tropical storm...probably in the next advisory. Initial intensity
is set at 30 knots but given the warm ocean along its path and the
low shear...the depression is forecast to reach hurricane status
over the next several days. The official forecast follows the SHIPS
intensity model.

Since the depression has just formed...the initial intensity is a
little bit uncertain. The best estimate is 275 degrees at 14 knots.
The
depression is located south of a strong subtropical ridge which is
building and expanding westward according to most of the global
models. This pattern calls for a general west to west-northwest
track for the next 2 to 3 days. Therefater...as the high builds
farther westward...the cyclone could turn more to the west. The
official forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and
very close to the model consensus. Since the track guidance is
rather tight...the forecast confidence is relatively high.
--
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A Forecaster for HinghamWX on EarthLogIIWX.
Why is it that people who don't care about the weather are the first to bitch about it when it changes

Hurricane Ike

Sun, 31 Aug 2008 19:21:14 EDT

ghostpainter : [att=1,l]This system also has the potential to become a tropical system.