  Integrator Rock of the Marne Premium join:2002-09-02 Keller, TX clubs:
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| Fault for the mess belongs to........
Whom?
I saw the 60 minutes article this past Sunday. I hope some of you caught it. It explained the the financial mess fairly well even going so far as to explain how these "securities" came into being ( you have to love mathemeticians and physicists creating shit out of nothing). The Expert financials(insiders) people they interviewed placed the entire blame on Wall Street. It was stated they created this mess solely of their own doing with no interference. Going so far as to state even if the mortgages failed it should have not brought the system down as it currently is (only 6% have actually failed). It is all due to the pricing of the "securities" and the infamous credit default swaps. They even interviewed the CEO of the international group that reps Credit Default Swaps. What a farce that guy was.
If you take that premise to fullfillment, how in the hell does the congress stream OUR cash into this bottomless pit. These same experts said that the bailout won't immediately do anything to the economy, and it may even make it worse due to the credit default swap issue.
Now I know we all are aware of the fiasco going on at the moment, but I encourage everyone to do some real research on this to find out the particulars on how this came to be. I have and it has absolutely blown me away, to say the least.
Is it Wall Street's fault or a combo of both? I know lack of regulation was a major contributor. Your thoughts? |
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  Bobcat 1.20.09 - The End of an Error Premium join:2001-02-04 Bedminster, NJ | Is this it? »www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/···54.shtml |
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 AtlGuy
join:2000-10-17 Marietta, GA | Yep that's it. |
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  Integrator Rock of the Marne Premium join:2002-09-02 Keller, TX clubs:
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| reply to Bobcat Yeah sure is, just doesn't contain some of the commentary and prefacing that was done. The gentleman who is the CEO of the international organization facial expressions says it all when they interview him. He was actually dumbfounded for answers. I actually was wondering WTF made him do that interview. |
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  KrK Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy Premium join:2000-01-17 Tulsa, OK
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| reply to Integrator It boils down really to greed, and deregulation and lack of oversight.
What I am curious about though is why has this thing exploded world-wide. If someone could explain it I would appreciate it, because I'm having a hard time connecting the dots as to why banks failing in France, Belgium, Germany, etc etc are a result of our mortgage situation here. -- "Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power." -- Benito Mussolini
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  yock Eschew the False Dichotomy Premium join:2000-11-21 Fairfield, OH
| Why is deregulation any more to blame than a firm's own unwillingness to check up on these credit swap insurers? If you purchase an insurance product, isn't the onus on you to make sure that the people to which you're paying premiums has the cash on hand to pay any claims? Why is it the government's job to make sure? |
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  Integrator Rock of the Marne Premium join:2002-09-02 Keller, TX clubs:
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| The article showed that one CDS product contract was like 300 pages or so (don't quote me on the number). Not only that but the term SWAP made the whole damn thing unregulated even though it was insurance, that term "insurance" was NEVER used in any contract. If it had been, it would have been regulated. This WAS a insurance contract just not by that name.
Many of the CDS operators where the biggest names in Banking/Lending. You would think they knew WTF they were doing if they were selling this stuff. Apparently, they thought wrong.
My point being, these things should have been regulated by virtue of what they were, and they are the one thing that no statistics are available for and as the article stated, there is no telling who is gonna come up next on the chopping block with these "insurance" policies. |
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  KrK Heavy Artillery For The Little Guy Premium join:2000-01-17 Tulsa, OK
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| reply to yock Because they can lie to you and get away with it, if they break the law and lie to the regulators they get prosecuted for it.
Sure, if you find out they lied you can sue--- oh but they're bankrupt now, oops, no money, too bad, eh?
You look at this mess and one thing is clear that self-regulation and lack of oversight are a recipe for abuse. -- "Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power." -- Benito Mussolini
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  yock Eschew the False Dichotomy Premium join:2000-11-21 Fairfield, OH
| How exactly can you lie in the days of Sarbanes-Oxley? There is some independent auditing firm signing off their reputation and legal freedom on their books under penalty of law, yes? I thought that bit of regulation was supposed to fix all that.
Tell me, if one set of regulations don't keep companies from lying, what does yet another set of regulations bring to the table? |
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  yock Eschew the False Dichotomy Premium join:2000-11-21 Fairfield, OH | reply to Integrator What would regulation have fixed here? You've told us twice now how they avoided regulation, now tell us what difference it would have made. |
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  yock Eschew the False Dichotomy Premium join:2000-11-21 Fairfield, OH
| reply to KrK And while we're at it, there is no such thing as "self regulation." It is every individual's responsibility, whether you represent your own interest as a consumer or even the largest of firms as an employee, to ensure that your business dealings are sound. In fact, it is in your best interest to investigate your business dealings thoroughly so you can be reasonably sure that the other party can fulfill their obligations.
The real failing here is that several absolutely gargantuan firms were dealing with each other and none of them ever thought about checking up on the other, nevermind that they were all screwing each other. The only absolute way to defend against this is through responsible consumerism. Consumers who educate themselves and take an active interest in the firms into which they invest have the best chance for success because they aren't relying on the truthiness of the firm's management, the regulators, the government, the marketing people, no one but themselves.
The only person you can ultimately trust is yourself. It's time all you big government regulation fans realized that. |
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  TK Junk Mail Go ahead, make my day Premium join:2002-03-03 Margate City, NJ clubs:
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edit: October 6th, @01:41PM
| reply to Bobcat And here is a link about how regulators plan on getting more regulation on "credit default swaps", the thing bringing down Wall St. & EU markets.
»news.morningstar.com/newsnet/Vie···22954951
And more info on Lehman hearing: »news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081006/bs_···l_lehman -- My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page Ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk? |
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  Integrator Rock of the Marne Premium join:2002-09-02 Keller, TX clubs:
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| reply to yock Let me explain what I think.
If these CDS had been regulated as insurance, which is what they were regardless of what is said, then the issuing firm would have had to have had the capital to back these contracts. Since they weren't stated as insurance, they avoided having to back these things with hard capital.
This isn't about additional regulation but it is about how all of these firms avoided regulation by declaring the insurance a credit default swaps. It means I could go write a CDS and fuck'em all just pay me the fee. I can't cover the contracts just pay me.
You also seem to think that money and greed was not a factor in this. Thes companies did what no level headed individual would do (which is exactly my point) in that they bought non-capital backed securities and paid for the pleasure. This was side betting.
I encourage you to at least read the article, which I don't think you have done. |
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  dogma Premium join:2002-08-15 Marina Del Rey, CA
| reply to Integrator Fault for the mess belongs to........ Us.
In short the Greater fool theory :
The government policies in many countries such as the US, UK, Australia and others have been pro-business and pro-wealthy for a very long time, especially in the past 50 years. But in the past three decades these policies have been pushed to the extremes, culminating in the latest tax cuts to the rich while continually reducing the services to the less wealthy and the poor. This concentration of the wealth, in itself, should have been a major concern for the economists and the governments since it increased the ability of the rich to accept and take bigger risks while, at the same time, reducing the ability of the less wealthy to cope with the consequences.
Economic bubbles always start with some rich people seeing an opportunity to make a quick profit. The speed by which the profit is made encourages the continuation of that activity. More importantly, other rich people join in. After a while, the rest of the population catch on and want a piece of the pie. But by this time, the bubble is fully blown and is about to burst. Just when the average Mr. Smith thinks that he has discovered the sure way of beating the system, the bubble bursts. By this time, the real wealthy have taken their money and left, leaving the majority of the population and the government to clean up the mess. Cleaning will take time, sweat and tears. Regardless if the bubble is based on Japanese Real Estate, Subprime mortgages, or even Tulip mania, it's part of the natural human condition. We all knew in our heart of hearts that the economy was being artificially propped up by the Home Real Estate industry. We knew property values made no sense. We were all aware of the "fog-a-mirror" loan qualifying. It just wasn't subprime. Almost 60% of ALL Americans entered into the game in some form: Selling their over valued house, getting a HELOC...on their over valued house, buying a 2nd home, ReFi'ing their over valued house and pulling cash out.
Lets not fool ourselves...again. We were greedy, and now it's time to pay the piper and we are looking for someone other than our collective selves to blame. |
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  CylonRed Premium,MVM join:2000-07-06 Bloom County
·Speakeasy
| I agree 100% - it is not just the CEO's and brokers - the citizens should be able to know via common sense if the loan is good or not. I have no problems with the loans being offered but anyone with a grain of common sense that has passed high school should have known better and stayed away if their circumstances warranted it.
These loans should have either died if no one got them or they should be around for the VERY few it would have made some amount of sense to have.
People wonder why the US is not liked in many countries and now we see one reason why. We had the ability to screw up a LOT of credit markets worldwide and the general world economy based on our CEO's/broker/loan officer unethical behaviour and millions of citizens who were to blind to know better. |
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  Integrator Rock of the Marne Premium join:2002-09-02 Keller, TX clubs:
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| reply to dogma I am not arguing that America got greedy. I agree with you. My focus is on the CDS factor and hte financial institutions. This IS without doubt the failing factor in what is going on at this moment. The mortgage back securities were being sold at a inflated price (as far as what the market could bear). Then the CDS's were bought to protect in case of short comings on the MBS.
The failure of these companies is DIRECTLY proportional to how many CDS' were provided by a firm. So when you add the MBS shortcomings AND the CDS contracts coming to fruition, I mean you are exchanging a whole lot of liquid capital that these guys don't have and had NO WAY of having. They issued bad paper on bad paper from the MBS.
So why again is it a consumers fault that thes swaps are coming to fruition? I pay my house note, I didn't tell Lehman to issue a CDS ( and the shitty thing is nobody knows how many of them are out there other than a educated guess of 56 Trillion dollars). They backed a risky mortgage with capital they did not have. This is NOT a consumer fault, this is Wall Street and pure greed. These institutions, in my view, could have withstood the failure of these mortgages, but the CDS' are the icing on the cake to bankruptcy. |
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  Integrator Rock of the Marne Premium join:2002-09-02 Keller, TX clubs:
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edit: October 6th, @01:50PM
| reply to CylonRed said by CylonRed :I agree 100% - it is not just the CEO's and brokers - the citizens should be able to know via common sense if the loan is good or not. I have no problems with the loans being offered but anyone with a grain of common sense that has passed high school should have known better and stayed away if their circumstances warranted it. These loans should have either died if no one got them or they should be around for the VERY few it would have made some amount of sense to have. People wonder why the US is not liked in many countries and now we see one reason why. We had the ability to screw up a LOT of credit markets worldwide and the general world economy based on our CEO's/broker/loan officer unethical behaviour and millions of citizens who were to blind to know better. Agreed, but with a total default rate of only 6% do you honestly think that brought the whole system down upon itself, much less the world economies?
This means the vast majority (94%) of home owners are paying their mortgage.
(I am pulling those numbers out of the article due to my laziness to find a better place)
*edited for spelling |
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  CylonRed Premium,MVM join:2000-07-06 Bloom County | reply to Integrator It is the consumers fault for getting these crappy loans that they should have known better to get... |
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  CylonRed Premium,MVM join:2000-07-06 Bloom County
·Speakeasy
| reply to Integrator How many are upside down and barely making it and will default soon? How many are not reported? I doubt 6% is an accurate number since the write downs have been in the multiple billions for more than one company and many more defaults are still expected. Some banks have been good about restructuring to avoid foreclosure but not all of them have been good about it.
Not sure what the current total write down is so far but i would hazard to guess $20 billion or so? I could easily see it be closer to $50-$90 billion or more
The securities based on these mortgages is causing the crisis but if people used common sense the total amount of damage should only have been a ripple. It does not help that the economy is not doing well anyway and has not for the last 1-1.5 years - I would say closer to 2 years. I think this has caused a larger knee jerk reaction - if the economy was stronger than we would not be seeing the fallout we currently are. |
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  dogma Premium join:2002-08-15 Marina Del Rey, CA
| reply to Integrator said by Integrator :So why again is it a consumers fault that thes swaps are coming to fruition? I pay my house note, I didn't tell Lehman to issue a CDS ( and the shitty thing is nobody knows how many of them are out there other than a educated guess of 56 Trillion dollars). They backed a risky mortgage with capital they did not have. This is NOT a consumer fault, this is Wall Street and pure greed. These institutions, in my view, could have withstood the failure of these mortgages, but the CDS' are the icing on the cake to bankruptcy. You know what, I think you are correct as well. Wall Street not only hustled their bags of steaming shit labeled "investment grade securities" to U.S. investors, but they also sold them to greedy, something-for-nothing foreign investors (both individual and institutional) as well. Additionally, foreign "Wall Streets" picked up on the same scam and screwed their local investors as well.
But lets drill it down; All of this pretend money was being circulated throughout the global economies (imagine $4 or $5 Trillion of undetectable counterfeit currency being poured into the global marketplace). Which means that for a while, it tricked down to J6P and everybody was spending like crazy. This spending on everything from Plasma Screens to new cars to 200ft Mega-Yachts. All of these companies that produced and retailed said plasmas/cars/Yachts were making profits, and thus looked good to institutional equities investors [read: the folks who controlled our 401(K)'s and pensions]. And the market grew, much of which fueled itself.
My contention is we, the lowly little working-class citizen should have NOT been so lazy as to allow ourselves to be lulled into this. We could have seen this coming a mile away. But we wanted to party with the big boys. None of us bitched when our retirement accounts were growing at 16%/yr. So it doesn't matter how the bubble was architected, the fact is, it was a bubble. We all soaked in it, we all enjoyed it to the extent we thought we were part of it. We encouraged the perpetuation of the bubble. We demanded unreasonably high returns from our fund managers on our little retirement accounts.
This isn't the first time, and damn sure won't be the last time for a bubble. The great thing is we have a long and detailed history of what happens post-bubble. |
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