 RickPremium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT | CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... this story could have been one of my posts going back a year and more on this website warning about the telco industry and what was to come if they didn't change..and quickly.
Here we now are..landlines fleeing by the millions..dsl customers doing the same...and what they're essentially left with is their next generation strategies to save them.
And, even more so...we now have Comcast rolling out docsis 3.0 apparently like it's just a walk in the park in terms of how quickly they can do it..and the cost associated with it.
And so..what comes next? What comes next is the whole landscape changes even further. You're talking about 22Mb to 50Mb speeds basically becoming the norm...versus..DSL speeds? We just realistically have to ask ourselves..who will ever want dsl again when those tv ad's get running?
Can you see it now the ad's with 50,000MPH signs on a highway with turtles walking down it. (Btw comcast..if you like that idea pm me and we can work something out.  )
And here's the REAL problem for the telco's. You have the loss of landlines..the loss of dsl customers..and the BIG expense of their next generation rollouts. The loss in those other categories is going to severely cripple their ability to roll out next generation services..even when they want to. Just like Qwest and so on..who finds it hard to afford it. It's just a problem that now feeds on itself and grows ever larger. Verizon is the best poised to compete but one has to consider how this will also affect them. Their fios area is still relatively small..and they're years away from finishing it in many places. How will it look then versus Comcast and probably other cable co's already long having had those kinds of speeds?
The fios novelty will have really worn off.
I'll sum it all up and say I think we're witnessing an industry changing event. It's hard to find in history such a dominant industry losing their market share like this..and so many negatives now going against them.
The telco's biggest mistake was in not seeing this years ago as the cable co's rewired this country with hybrid fiber/coax. Now..it's there and in place. And docsis 3.0 will take it to totally new levels.
I really hope for competitions sake that the landscape of what is occurring changes..but it's hard to see what will at this point. Could AT&T ever start a FTTH rollout..today..and do it in time? It would take years now.
Verizon is doing it to their credit. But for how long and how fast given the pace it shows up in new areas and the loss now of their core businesses.
I do have to give kudos to Comcast and CEO Roberts for what they've done. It really is a stroke of business genius.
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The Coyote captured the RR! Roadrunner Rick is now Comcastic! |
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| said by Rick:I'll sum it all up and say I think we're witnessing an industry changing event. It's hard to find in history such a dominant industry losing their market share like this..and so many negatives now going against them. The thing saving the telcos is wireless - the biggest growth area for decades to come. Both Verizon & AT&T are gobbling users up by the millions and much of their lost landline business is going there. None of the cable companies have yet shown they can roll out a viable wireless strategy, though they are all starting to make noises like they will get serious in that arena.
The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless?
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 ptrowskiGot Helix?Premium
join:2005-03-14
Putnam, CT
kudos:4
 ·VOIPo
| said by fAcEtIOUs:said by Rick:I'll sum it all up and say I think we're witnessing an industry changing event. It's hard to find in history such a dominant industry losing their market share like this..and so many negatives now going against them. The thing saving the telcos is wireless - the biggest growth area for decades to come. Both Verizon & AT&T are gobbling users up by the millions and much of their lost landline business is going there. None of the cable companies have yet shown they can roll out a viable wireless strategy, though they are all starting to make noises like they will get serious in that arena. The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless? Shhhhh...don't try to make sense to the shill behind the curtain.
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RickPremium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT | said by ptrowski:Shhhhh...don't try to make sense to the shill behind the curtain. Make sense? That wireless is doing well for them? No one is disputing that.
But isn't that a bit like saying that hot apple pies are saving McDonalds..while their hamburger and fry business is being gobbled up by a player in a total different industry by the day?
Anyways..all this talk is making me HUNGRY. I'm off to comcast..err..Wendys for a burger.
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ptrowskiGot Helix?Premium
join:2005-03-14
Putnam, CT
kudos:4 Reviews:
·VOIPo
| said by Rick:said by ptrowski:Shhhhh...don't try to make sense to the shill behind the curtain. Make sense? That wireless is doing well for them? No one is disputing that. But isn't that a bit like saying that hot apple pies are saving McDonalds..while their hamburger and fry business is being gobbled up by a player in a total different industry by the day? Anyways..all this talk is making me HUNGRY. I'm off to comcast..err..Wendys for a burger. You missed the point about the cable companies not having a contender like the wireless piece.
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RickPremium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT | I just don't see wireless competing with fiber/coax though.
they're distinct and different enough to serve two markets with wireless more for the mobile market.
Yes..cell phones do replace landlines for some..but that's not tv and hsi. and the bundling effects will keep landlines as part of the cable bundle equation for a long time to come.
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The Coyote captured the RR! Roadrunner Rick is now Comcastic! |
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ptrowskiGot Helix?Premium
join:2005-03-14
Putnam, CT
kudos:4 Reviews:
·VOIPo
| said by Rick:I just don't see wireless competing with fiber/coax though. they're distinct and different enough to serve two markets with wireless more for the mobile market. Yes..cell phones do replace landlines for some..but that's not tv and hsi. and the bundling effects will keep landlines as part of the cable bundle equation for a long time to come. Really?
»LTE Shows Its 100Mbps Chops
Those speeds are becoming quite impressive. Femto cells being rolled out by T-Mobile and soon by Verizon really blur the line.
Now if those speeds can be offered soon by wireless companies, TV would not be far behind.
The problem with many cable phone line bundles is after the first year the prices go up dramatically. And let's be honest, the states are going to try to find a way to get their paws deeper into the potential tax dollars. We saw it with indie VoIP, I would imagine the cable companies are not far off.
Personally due to monopolies I can't get a major ISP except AT&T where I live. Verizon if a few miles away in RI, Charter is one town away, and others are over the border in Mass.
All I care about is who can give me the fastest speeds at the best price. Right now that is DSL with their Elite speeds as Metrocast is more expensive for just a smidge more download. Now they are retooling their network, so that may change.
I do not have an allegiance to my ISP, I don't care about the CEO or the quarterly earnings nor do I have their name tattooed on my arm. Give me the fastest speeds at the most reasonable price, whether it's cable, DSL, fiber, wireless, whatever.
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markofmayhemI can haz competition?Premium
join:2004-04-08
Pittsburgh, PA
kudos:4 | reply to Rick
Rick, in your original post you made the statement that Telco's will have to play "catch-up" by converting to next generation delivery systems. The fact that Telco's have wireless revenue will subsidize the cost of the next generation systems to compete on the "level of four". It will not be a case of the dying paying for a cure. With FIOS's numbers looking very solid, other Telco's will eventually spend the capital to upgrade and be in competition with Cable. Within 10 years, telco and MSO will directly compete for telephone, HSI, and video in most markets (instead of the few markets today). If the MSO's decide to not compete in the wireless arena as well, then it will just be a few short years later that the foursome of telco will reign supreme yet again; for they can afford to subsidize their tele/internet/video packages just enough to out-price the MSO market by market. There will be many victims along the way (will Qwest survive? will U-Verse be the ultimate bridge to FTTH as predicted?), but the "triple play" is dead. Telco can no longer dismiss video; MSO's can no longer dismiss wireless.
Information/entertainment delivery is now four services, no longer 2-3. Satellite TV will continue to survive as long as they pander to niche and ultra-cheap packages (such as sports and $30 "family" tiers). Comcast and other MSO's have a LOT of catch-up to reach the Telco's; not the other way around. Not only do they have to remain the leaders in video (an area they have been slowly falling behind on in the last two years), but they have to enter the wireless market (doesn't have to be directly, but Four-Play bundles are a must over the next decade). It was very smart to release Docsis 3.0 now to receive as much capital as possible off of the new speeds. It was also extremely smart to aggresively price and roll-out voice. POTS and DSL are on their death beds, but they still have an extremely strong market. $24.99 1.5 DSL is a great value to many, if not most internet subscribers. I fear cable dismissing the price point and/or not competing directly with it may be a mistake that will eventually correct itself with the death of DSL, but how much potential revenue will be lost? |
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 DavidNow accepting new patientsPremium,VIP
join:2002-05-30
Granite City, IL
kudos:70
 ·AT&T Southwest
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said by fAcEtIOUs:The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless? To be honest with you... I think it's going to be wireless. Just based on laptops getting even cheaper, EEpc's and Iphone and the devices in that direction.
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 Wills
join:2001-01-03
Port Charlotte, FL | reply to Rick
said by Rick:We just realistically have to ask ourselves..who will ever want dsl again when those tv ad's get running? Me.
DSL continioiusly gives me the things Comcast will not. Reliability, static IP and the ability to host my Web/FTP/Mail server without question.
I don't care if Comcast is willing to drop OC3 speeds to my front door, I'll stay with my DSL.
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CorydonCultivant son jardinPremium
join:2008-02-18
Denver, CO | reply to fAcEtIOUs
said by fAcEtIOUs:The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless? We already know that Comcast and other cable companies are hedging their bets with Clearwire. I don't think they intend to sit on their hands there either.
I think the future will be a combination of both; they each have their place. Fiber will always be faster than wireless, and will be used in the home and workplace. Wireless will be everywhere else, and there will be seamless integration between the two.
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 en102Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA | reply to Rick
said by Rick:I do have to give kudos to Comcast and CEO Roberts for what they've done. It really is a stroke of business genius. I don't think Comcast or their CEO have done anything unique outside of what is technically a typical business requirement... profit and obtaining more customers.
It's not like Comcast 'invented' Docsis 3.0.
I think its more of a telco sleeping at the wheel (Verizon being the exception and taking what is a necessary risk).
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 dogtechLet Us Build It
join:2002-06-08
Toledo, OH | reply to Rick
The Telco's game now is wireless....not landline anything. Wireless is their cash cow. Comcast is light years behind them in this reguard. |
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KearnstdElf WizardPremium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ | reply to Rick
FiOS is the only telco deployment that even can challenge Comcast and its still very limited in area. Uverse is already Obsolete.
another major advantage for Comcast and cable in general is they can TOTALLY trash a Service like Uverse with minimal capitol, DOCSIS 3.0 has got to be less costly then new networks.
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 badtripI heart the East BayPremium
join:2004-03-20
Albany, CA | reply to fAcEtIOUs
said by fAcEtIOUs:The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless? Wireless without a doubt.
Desktop computer's mainstream days are numbered. Desktops are expensive and wasteful (energy and space). Right now with the iPhone, G1 and ultra portable laptops, we are seeing the beginnings of a shift to portable computing and it will just snowball from here.
Portable computing needs wireless. |
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 djrobx
join:2000-05-31
Valencia, CA
kudos:1
 ·Verizon Wireless..
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 ·AT&T U-Verse
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| reply to en102
said by en102:said by Rick:I do have to give kudos to Comcast and CEO Roberts for what they've done. It really is a stroke of business genius. I don't think Comcast or their CEO have done anything unique outside of what is technically a typical business requirement... profit and obtaining more customers. It's not like Comcast 'invented' Docsis 3.0. I think its more of a telco sleeping at the wheel (Verizon being the exception and taking what is a necessary risk). Comcast is probably the most aggressive cable company out there. For the most part, they don't wait around for their competition to one-up them. We've been through many cable companies in Valencia, and Comcast was by far the most impressive in terms of quickly modernizing the system and offering new services consistently across the LA footprint. Comcast got HD service and decent quality dual tuner HD DVR, and VOD out to us at lightning speed. That's precisely how they won us back from DirecTV, which I was very happy with at the time.
Time Warner seems to be much more of a reactive company rather than an active innovator. It's been over two years since Time Warner took over, but for the most part the TV service is still Comcast's, rebadged with a Time Warner logo on it. Two years later - you can't even sign into Time Warner's support page without picking "Former Comcast" on a drop-down menu!  And we're back to waiting months and months for things like a handful of HD channels. Comcast wouldn't have let this system fall behind like this.
This is not to say Comcast is perfect, but compared to other cable companies, they seem to work pretty hard at staying competitve, which I suppose falls on Roberts' choices.
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KearnstdElf WizardPremium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ | reply to badtrip
said by badtrip:said by fAcEtIOUs:The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless? Wireless without a doubt. Desktop computer's mainstream days are numbered. Desktops are expensive and wasteful (energy and space). Right now with the iPhone, G1 and ultra portable laptops, we are seeing the beginnings of a shift to portable computing and it will just snowball from here. Portable computing needs wireless. i disagree, phones will change but i think the PC still has a place in the home. the iphone and ultra portable laptops have a fatal flaw and that is screen size. and the plasma in your living room might be good for gaming but surfing the web and sending emails and multitasking anything with text is still best done on a PC at the desk.
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badtripI heart the East BayPremium
join:2004-03-20
Albany, CA | Let's make a bet then. I say in less than a decade, Desktop PCs will be all but dead for mainstream applications. |
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en102Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA | reply to djrobx
While I do admit that Comcast has been more agressive in pushing the envelope (Comcast HSI wasn't all that great for some). I'd agree that Comcast (and Cablevision) from a Cable Co and Verizon (for FiOS) are agressive compared to AT&T and TimeWarner.
Comcast NEVER offered VoIP service here, and were relatively expensive. I attempted to sign up for Comcast broadcast basic, but was told that it wasn't offered in my Zipcode (BS), and offered some channels only in premium tiers (Newsworld International required an 'International' package) while being standard on DTV and TWC.
At the same time, standard pricing has been much more reasonable on TWC.
Eg. 30/30/30 on TWC was less than Digital TV + HSI on Comcast ($60.40/month + $45/month)... and going back to the other point... Comcast didn't offer VoIP in Valencia or even its digital phone service.
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Canada = Hollywood North |
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 knightmbEverybody Lies
join:2003-12-01
Franklin, TN | reply to badtrip
said by badtrip:Let's make a bet then. I say in less than a decade, Desktop PCs will be all but dead for mainstream applications. Sure, I'll take the beat, I heard that in the 80's, 90's, and 2000's, it's almost 2010 and still we have plenty of desktop PC's.
The only thing that will happen is the term Desktop PC will evolve like it already has.
The desktop PC use to be this big 80 lb tower that had huge fans and boards to run the awesome 80286 16 Mhz processor and disk drives. Now, the desktop is either your laptop with a monitor and keyboard attached to it or a little tower system that is about 1/5 the size of the original desktop PC systems.
Phones are phones, no matter if they play music or video's, they are still just toys compared to a modern PC in both processing power and usability for the office/home.
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