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TKJunkMail
Enjoy the sun
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
 ·Sprint Mobile Broa..
 ·Comcast
| Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... said by Rick  :I'll sum it all up and say I think we're witnessing an industry changing event. It's hard to find in history such a dominant industry losing their market share like this..and so many negatives now going against them. The thing saving the telcos is wireless - the biggest growth area for decades to come. Both Verizon & AT&T are gobbling users up by the millions and much of their lost landline business is going there. None of the cable companies have yet shown they can roll out a viable wireless strategy, though they are all starting to make noises like they will get serious in that arena.
The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless?
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Rick
Premium,MVM
join:2001-02-06
Waterbury, CT
clubs: 
| Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... I just don't see wireless competing with fiber/coax though.
they're distinct and different enough to serve two markets with wireless more for the mobile market.
Yes..cell phones do replace landlines for some..but that's not tv and hsi. and the bundling effects will keep landlines as part of the cable bundle equation for a long time to come.
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ptrowski
Got Helix?
Premium
join:2005-03-14
Putnam, CT
clubs:
 ·VOIPo
·Metrocast Communic..
 ·AT&T DSL Service
·ViaTalk
| Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... said by Rick :I just don't see wireless competing with fiber/coax though. they're distinct and different enough to serve two markets with wireless more for the mobile market. Yes..cell phones do replace landlines for some..but that's not tv and hsi. and the bundling effects will keep landlines as part of the cable bundle equation for a long time to come. Really?
»LTE Shows Its 100Mbps Chops
Those speeds are becoming quite impressive. Femto cells being rolled out by T-Mobile and soon by Verizon really blur the line.
Now if those speeds can be offered soon by wireless companies, TV would not be far behind.
The problem with many cable phone line bundles is after the first year the prices go up dramatically. And let's be honest, the states are going to try to find a way to get their paws deeper into the potential tax dollars. We saw it with indie VoIP, I would imagine the cable companies are not far off.
Personally due to monopolies I can't get a major ISP except AT&T where I live. Verizon if a few miles away in RI, Charter is one town away, and others are over the border in Mass.
All I care about is who can give me the fastest speeds at the best price. Right now that is DSL with their Elite speeds as Metrocast is more expensive for just a smidge more download. Now they are retooling their network, so that may change.
I do not have an allegiance to my ISP, I don't care about the CEO or the quarterly earnings nor do I have their name tattooed on my arm. Give me the fastest speeds at the most reasonable price, whether it's cable, DSL, fiber, wireless, whatever.
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| | | | | | markofmayhem
join:2004-04-08
Pittsburgh, PA
| Rick, in your original post you made the statement that Telco's will have to play "catch-up" by converting to next generation delivery systems. The fact that Telco's have wireless revenue will subsidize the cost of the next generation systems to compete on the "level of four". It will not be a case of the dying paying for a cure. With FIOS's numbers looking very solid, other Telco's will eventually spend the capital to upgrade and be in competition with Cable. Within 10 years, telco and MSO will directly compete for telephone, HSI, and video in most markets (instead of the few markets today). If the MSO's decide to not compete in the wireless arena as well, then it will just be a few short years later that the foursome of telco will reign supreme yet again; for they can afford to subsidize their tele/internet/video packages just enough to out-price the MSO market by market. There will be many victims along the way (will Qwest survive? will U-Verse be the ultimate bridge to FTTH as predicted?), but the "triple play" is dead. Telco can no longer dismiss video; MSO's can no longer dismiss wireless.
Information/entertainment delivery is now four services, no longer 2-3. Satellite TV will continue to survive as long as they pander to niche and ultra-cheap packages (such as sports and $30 "family" tiers). Comcast and other MSO's have a LOT of catch-up to reach the Telco's; not the other way around. Not only do they have to remain the leaders in video (an area they have been slowly falling behind on in the last two years), but they have to enter the wireless market (doesn't have to be directly, but Four-Play bundles are a must over the next decade). It was very smart to release Docsis 3.0 now to receive as much capital as possible off of the new speeds. It was also extremely smart to aggresively price and roll-out voice. POTS and DSL are on their death beds, but they still have an extremely strong market. $24.99 1.5 DSL is a great value to many, if not most internet subscribers. I fear cable dismissing the price point and/or not competing directly with it may be a mistake that will eventually correct itself with the death of DSL, but how much potential revenue will be lost? | |
| | | | Corydon
Cultivant son jardin
Premium
join:2008-02-18
Denver, CO
clubs:
·Comcast
| said by TKJunkMail :The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless? We already know that Comcast and other cable companies are hedging their bets with Clearwire. I don't think they intend to sit on their hands there either.
I think the future will be a combination of both; they each have their place. Fiber will always be faster than wireless, and will be used in the home and workplace. Wireless will be everywhere else, and there will be seamless integration between the two.
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| | | | | Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
| Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... said by badtrip :said by TKJunkMail :The big question will be - what technology will become dominant in future years - fiber/cable or wireless? Wireless without a doubt. Desktop computer's mainstream days are numbered. Desktops are expensive and wasteful (energy and space). Right now with the iPhone, G1 and ultra portable laptops, we are seeing the beginnings of a shift to portable computing and it will just snowball from here. Portable computing needs wireless. i disagree, phones will change but i think the PC still has a place in the home. the iphone and ultra portable laptops have a fatal flaw and that is screen size. and the plasma in your living room might be good for gaming but surfing the web and sending emails and multitasking anything with text is still best done on a PC at the desk.
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badtrip
East Bay
Premium
join:2004-03-20
Albany, CA | Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... Let's make a bet then. I say in less than a decade, Desktop PCs will be all but dead for mainstream applications. | |
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knightmb
Everybody Lies
join:2003-12-01
Franklin, TN
·AT&T DSL Service
| Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... said by badtrip :Let's make a bet then. I say in less than a decade, Desktop PCs will be all but dead for mainstream applications. Sure, I'll take the beat, I heard that in the 80's, 90's, and 2000's, it's almost 2010 and still we have plenty of desktop PC's.
The only thing that will happen is the term Desktop PC will evolve like it already has.
The desktop PC use to be this big 80 lb tower that had huge fans and boards to run the awesome 80286 16 Mhz processor and disk drives. Now, the desktop is either your laptop with a monitor and keyboard attached to it or a little tower system that is about 1/5 the size of the original desktop PC systems.
Phones are phones, no matter if they play music or video's, they are still just toys compared to a modern PC in both processing power and usability for the office/home.
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fruhead
join:2002-01-29
Montclair, NJ
| said by badtrip :Let's make a bet then. I say in less than a decade, Desktop PCs will be all but dead for mainstream applications. Where's my flying car? | |
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PGHammer
join:2003-06-09
Accokeek, MD
clubs:
·Comcast
| However, wireless is very cannibalistic, and especially so for Verizon (in addition to being the second-largest RBOC, VZW is the second-largest (in terms of subscribers) wireless carrier, and that is *before* digesting Alltel). Between VoIP services (from the cable companies, especially Comcast, and Vonage) and VZW (not to mention AT&T Mobility and T-Mobile), residential/SMB POTS is under assault like it has never been just in the past year. In AT&T Mobility's case, it is owned entirely by the parent, which isn't the case for VZW (which is a JV with Vodaphone plc, which has shown no inkling of selling any of their end to VZ); hence any customer that goes VZW-only is already halfway lost. (This explains VZ's reluctance in doing bundle discounts that include VZW.) | |
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Wills
join:2001-01-03
Port Charlotte, FL
| said by Rick :We just realistically have to ask ourselves..who will ever want dsl again when those tv ad's get running? Me.
DSL continioiusly gives me the things Comcast will not. Reliability, static IP and the ability to host my Web/FTP/Mail server without question.
I don't care if Comcast is willing to drop OC3 speeds to my front door, I'll stay with my DSL.
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djrobx
join:2000-05-31
Valencia, CA
·PHONE POWER
 ·AT&T U-Verse
·AT&T CallVantage
·Time Warner VOIP
·RoadRunner Cable
| Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... said by en102 :said by Rick :I do have to give kudos to Comcast and CEO Roberts for what they've done. It really is a stroke of business genius. I don't think Comcast or their CEO have done anything unique outside of what is technically a typical business requirement... profit and obtaining more customers. It's not like Comcast 'invented' Docsis 3.0. I think its more of a telco sleeping at the wheel (Verizon being the exception and taking what is a necessary risk). Comcast is probably the most aggressive cable company out there. For the most part, they don't wait around for their competition to one-up them. We've been through many cable companies in Valencia, and Comcast was by far the most impressive in terms of quickly modernizing the system and offering new services consistently across the LA footprint. Comcast got HD service and decent quality dual tuner HD DVR, and VOD out to us at lightning speed. That's precisely how they won us back from DirecTV, which I was very happy with at the time.
Time Warner seems to be much more of a reactive company rather than an active innovator. It's been over two years since Time Warner took over, but for the most part the TV service is still Comcast's, rebadged with a Time Warner logo on it. Two years later - you can't even sign into Time Warner's support page without picking "Former Comcast" on a drop-down menu!  And we're back to waiting months and months for things like a handful of HD channels. Comcast wouldn't have let this system fall behind like this.
This is not to say Comcast is perfect, but compared to other cable companies, they seem to work pretty hard at staying competitve, which I suppose falls on Roberts' choices.
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en102
Canadian, eh?
join:2001-01-26
Valencia, CA
·RoadRunner Cable
·DSL EXTREME
| Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision... While I do admit that Comcast has been more agressive in pushing the envelope (Comcast HSI wasn't all that great for some). I'd agree that Comcast (and Cablevision) from a Cable Co and Verizon (for FiOS) are agressive compared to AT&T and TimeWarner.
Comcast NEVER offered VoIP service here, and were relatively expensive. I attempted to sign up for Comcast broadcast basic, but was told that it wasn't offered in my Zipcode (BS), and offered some channels only in premium tiers (Newsworld International required an 'International' package) while being standard on DTV and TWC.
At the same time, standard pricing has been much more reasonable on TWC.
Eg. 30/30/30 on TWC was less than Digital TV + HSI on Comcast ($60.40/month + $45/month)... and going back to the other point... Comcast didn't offer VoIP in Valencia or even its digital phone service.
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| | | Sammer
join:2005-12-22
Canonsburg, PA
| said by djrobx :said by en102 :said by Rick :I do have to give kudos to Comcast and CEO Roberts for what they've done. It really is a stroke of business genius. I don't think Comcast or their CEO have done anything unique outside of what is technically a typical business requirement... profit and obtaining more customers. It's not like Comcast 'invented' Docsis 3.0. I think its more of a telco sleeping at the wheel (Verizon being the exception and taking what is a necessary risk). Comcast is probably the most aggressive cable company out there. While more aggressive than Time Warner Cable, they don't really seem more aggressive than Cox or Cablevision. While I wouldn't have expected them to completely upgrade the 750 MHz former Adelphia systems they took over in the Pittsburgh area yet there are still some local systems they took over from AT&T Broadband a number of years ago that are still in bad shape. | |
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dogtech
Let Us Build It
join:2002-06-08
Toledo, OH | The Telco's game now is wireless....not landline anything. Wireless is their cash cow. Comcast is light years behind them in this reguard. | |
| Kearnstd
Elf Wizard
Premium
join:2002-01-22
Mullica Hill, NJ
| FiOS is the only telco deployment that even can challenge Comcast and its still very limited in area. Uverse is already Obsolete.
another major advantage for Comcast and cable in general is they can TOTALLY trash a Service like Uverse with minimal capitol, DOCSIS 3.0 has got to be less costly then new networks.
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[65 Arcanist]Filan(High Elf) Zone: Broadband Reports | |
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