markofmayhem
join:2004-04-08
Pittsburgh, PA
| reply to Rick
Re: CEO Roberts isn't the only one with vision...
Rick, in your original post you made the statement that Telco's will have to play "catch-up" by converting to next generation delivery systems. The fact that Telco's have wireless revenue will subsidize the cost of the next generation systems to compete on the "level of four". It will not be a case of the dying paying for a cure. With FIOS's numbers looking very solid, other Telco's will eventually spend the capital to upgrade and be in competition with Cable. Within 10 years, telco and MSO will directly compete for telephone, HSI, and video in most markets (instead of the few markets today). If the MSO's decide to not compete in the wireless arena as well, then it will just be a few short years later that the foursome of telco will reign supreme yet again; for they can afford to subsidize their tele/internet/video packages just enough to out-price the MSO market by market. There will be many victims along the way (will Qwest survive? will U-Verse be the ultimate bridge to FTTH as predicted?), but the "triple play" is dead. Telco can no longer dismiss video; MSO's can no longer dismiss wireless.
Information/entertainment delivery is now four services, no longer 2-3. Satellite TV will continue to survive as long as they pander to niche and ultra-cheap packages (such as sports and $30 "family" tiers). Comcast and other MSO's have a LOT of catch-up to reach the Telco's; not the other way around. Not only do they have to remain the leaders in video (an area they have been slowly falling behind on in the last two years), but they have to enter the wireless market (doesn't have to be directly, but Four-Play bundles are a must over the next decade). It was very smart to release Docsis 3.0 now to receive as much capital as possible off of the new speeds. It was also extremely smart to aggresively price and roll-out voice. POTS and DSL are on their death beds, but they still have an extremely strong market. $24.99 1.5 DSL is a great value to many, if not most internet subscribers. I fear cable dismissing the price point and/or not competing directly with it may be a mistake that will eventually correct itself with the death of DSL, but how much potential revenue will be lost? |
