dslreports logo
site
 
    All Forums Hot Topics Gallery
spc

spacer




how-to block ads


Search Topic:
uniqs
3901
share rss forum feed


FFH
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ
kudos:5

Past statistics don't always show future trends

compiled the latest set of data concerning the growth of Internet traffic
A lot of these predictions that the internet WON'T face much higher bandwidth demand is based on past statistics. But a paradigm break is in process. The past statistics can't recognize the tremendous growth of online high def video that is coming. Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
--
My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
Ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?


Matt3
All noise, no signal.
Premium
join:2003-07-20
Jamestown, NC
kudos:12

said by FFH:

compiled the latest set of data concerning the growth of Internet traffic
Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
So the answer is obviously to institute caps? I meant, if bandwidth use is growing as Comcast, Time Warner, and AT&T insist, then clearly capping monthly bandwidth and charging for people who go over that amount is the answer.

ggultra2764

join:2007-09-13
Cambridge, NY
Reviews:
·Millenicom

Yeah, but the trust of the three above is questionable with AT&T bugging the government for teleco immunity from lawsuits, Comcast butting heads with the FCC and angry consumers over P2P throttling and invisible caps, and some of Time Warner Cable's decisions regarding channel packages.



fireflier
Coffee. . .Need Coffee
Premium
join:2001-05-25
Limbo
reply to FFH

Are you copying this stuff right off of a list of telco talking points?

»Past may not be prelude

Based on present ISP measures, the evil growth of which you speak will never take place since they'll cap the hell out of anything that's not sourced from their own servers.

Assuming tremendous growth of high def video really isn't any more accurate than using past years' data to predict future growth. Who can say with certainty what HD video is actually going to do on the internet.

At least looking at the past--say--5 years is going to indicate whether some sort of non-linear increase is taking place which could be extrapolated. Assuming some kind of 'oh my freaking God the world is going to end because of HD' growth is practically pulling numbers out of one's ass.

If someone has concrete numbers to represent this paradigm shi(f)t you keep referencing, I'm sure many people here would like to see them.
--
Tradition: Just because you've always done it that way doesn't mean it's not incredibly stupid. --despair.com



jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Ashburn, VA
kudos:1

1 recommendation

reply to Matt3

Caps and ridiculously priced overage charges speak volumes toward most ISP's future business model.

They found a way to increase the transfer speeds in a relatively inexpensive manner, but rather than spend the money on the infrastructure to support these increases, they would rather place a moratorium on the bandwidth consumption limits. They want to impose a freeze on the amount of data that can be transferred. It costs too much money in their eyes. And if they all join forces, this will be the accepted standard and it will not come back to haunt them.

They are trying to make it impossible for innovation to take root. They are crippling one type of service to keep another type alive. This is par for the course with these giant entities that have way too much control and influence in any industry. I wish it were easier to identify and eliminate these nefarious business practices that the RIAA and their ilk seem to employ after they gain too much control.



Nightshade
Premium
join:2002-05-26
Salem, OR
reply to FFH

said by FFH:

Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
I have a very serious problem with that statement and here's why.

I took statistics and probability. If there's anything I learned out of that class is that statisticians look at past data to make predictions about future trends. Without past data, there is no baseline for them to show future trends.

You can't have one without the other. You got to have past data to create any statistical trends at all regardless if the trend is accurate or not, period.
--
Be careful who you vote for, you just might get it.


FFH
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ
kudos:5

said by Nightshade:

I took statistics and probability. If there's anything I learned out of that class is that statisticians look at past data to make predictions about future trends. Without past data, there is no baseline for them to show future trends.

You can't have one without the other. You got to have past data to create any statistical trends at all regardless if the trend is accurate or not, period.
So did I. And there is no statistical models that project when the knee in a curve may happen. And that is what you can't predict based purely on past trends.
--
My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
Ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?


Nightshade
Premium
join:2002-05-26
Salem, OR

1 edit

1 recommendation

Oh I know. If anything creating statistics is really a combination of mathematical theory and good old fashioned educated guessing. All statistical models will eventually fail, it's just a matter of when and how the data that already exists is modeled. But you still need strong past data to make the predictions. Without that all you really are doing is doing baseless guessing.
--
Be careful who you vote for, you just might get it.



FFH
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ
kudos:5
reply to fireflier

said by fireflier:

Assuming tremendous growth of high def video really isn't any more accurate than using past years' data to predict future growth. Who can say with certainty what HD video is actually going to do on the internet.
How about story after story about Apple TV; Roku; Sling; Xbox; PS3 and now the Blockbuster STB being discussed in the BBR story right after this one.

It is anecdotal evidence right now, but it does speak to a change coming and coming very soon. A massive change in user actions in TV watching is being predicted here and everywhere on the net. And the statistics doesn't show it yet, but predictions say it is coming.
--
My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
Ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?


jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Ashburn, VA
kudos:1

2 recommendations

Is this anything like the massive change in user actions with music listening? Are we going to have to suffer through a bunch of control freaks that will stifle innovation and hold firm to an outdated business model until the very end?



funchords
Hello
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-11
Yarmouth Port, MA
kudos:6

1 recommendation

reply to FFH

said by FFH:

compiled the latest set of data concerning the growth of Internet traffic
A lot of these predictions that the internet WON'T face much higher bandwidth demand is based on past statistics. But a paradigm break is in process. The past statistics can't recognize the tremendous growth of online high def video that is coming. Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
I think we're in the middle of that, now.

Again, folks, know your history or it will come to know you (in a Biblical way).

When the web took off, everything strained under the addition of images,

and then animated images,

and of course demand of the web increased and another cycle was born --

flash and light video and larger images --

multiple computers per household -- more consumers -- more worldwide adoption.

Plus, don't forget that video itself has undergone a revolution. There aren't many 19-inch 4x3 format TV's selling these days.

That's not the future -- that's now. Those that are throttling are throttling the inevitable --

-- they're throttling progress --

-- and more insightful countries are passing us.

How can we invent the technology of tomorrow when throttling ISPs keep us all using the technology of yesterday?

Holy crap!
--
Robb Topolski -= funchords.com =- Hillsboro, Oregon
More features, more fun, Join BroadbandReports.com, it's free...


jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Ashburn, VA
kudos:1

2 recommendations

It's simple. Some CEO can make $18 million now instead of $4 million. If the company crashes and burns while crippling an entire industry, certainly the people will bail them out with our taxes. Although the tax payer will still be left with an inadequate, overpriced infrastructure with no other options available.



not me 2

@comcast.net
reply to Matt3

Whether most people would choose to watch TV online is hard to say. It hasn't happened so far and even if everything was available in HD I don't know that would make many more people switch to watching online instead of on their TV. Online viewing is nice for short clips like Youtube carries, but most people will want to watch on their larger TV screen than their laptop or desktop computer has. (Yes, you can connect a PC to the TV but most people don't do that and aren't likely to do it in the near future.) People are creatures of habit and watching shows/movies on the TV is what they are used to and most aren't going to change that viewing habit, especially not if they have more than one viewing at a time.

In either case it probably doesn't matter because monthly usage caps are here and they aren't likely to go away. The caps will keep people from switching to watching large amounts of HD video online even if the cap would allow someone to do so. That's just because most people don't want to risk going over the cap so they will turn to other sources (watch live or recorded TV) instead of watching online.


Lazlow

join:2006-08-07
Saint Louis, MO

not me 2

I think you are VASTLY underestimating the general public. PVRs are very popular, mythtv(among others) is a fairly common thing to see in people under 30 households. Since the computer is already hooked to the TV it usually does not take very long for these people to figure out that they can get media online. It may start out as just finding episodes that were missed for one reason or another, but it soon spreads. If you like one show from a pay channel (say Dexter). If you like a series from overseas (say Kingdom). After a while people soon start to ask themselves why they are paying $60+ for cable when they can get the same media online. While this has been climbing slowly over the last decade(I had my first pvr in 93) it has hit a huge growth spurt since DVRs have become popular (people do not like paying that monthly fee, just like when they got rid of cable boxes the first time).



fatness
subtle
Premium,ex-mod 01-13
join:2000-11-17
fishing
kudos:14

1 edit
reply to FFH

said by FFH:

A lot of these predictions that the internet WON'T face much higher bandwidth demand is based on past statistics. But a paradigm break is in process. The past statistics can't recognize the tremendous growth of online high def video that is coming. Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
I realize you've said that before, but it reads more like a provider's press release than empirical information.
--
goodbye dad


FFH
Premium
join:2002-03-03
Tavistock NJ
kudos:5

1 edit

1 recommendation

said by fatness:

I realize you've said that before, but it reads more like a provider's press release than empirical information.
If Karl can keep posting the same story over and over, I figure I can post the same reply as well.
--
My BLOG .. .. Internet News .. .. My Web Page
Ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?


NetAdmin1
CCNA

join:2008-05-22
reply to FFH

said by FFH:

A lot of these predictions that the internet WON'T face much higher bandwidth demand is based on past statistics.
Using proper forecast models, you can use past data to make fairly accurate forecasts. That's how planning is done on bandwidth planning. It is also how the weather is forecast.

It is true that past performance is not indicative of future performance, but without having a handle on past performance, you can't make an educated estimate of future performance.
--
---
Drilling for more oil is akin to giving a methhead the keys to the meth lab.


fireflier
Coffee. . .Need Coffee
Premium
join:2001-05-25
Limbo
reply to FFH

While it does represent a potential traffic increase--the significance of which cannot be accurately determined at this point--I don't know that (and I don't think it can be proven) the traffic increase will result in a sudden discontinuity in the slope/curve of traffic over time that would necessitate such drastic actions, e.g. things the telcos are askig for like lower taxes, subsidies, and relaxed regulations.

They've survived other internet advancements (graphic heavy pages, flash, shockwave, MP3, etc) without these conditions. As an apparent advocate of free market capitalism, you should be suggesting the telcos deal with what's coming and let the strongest and smartest survive.
--
Tradition: Just because you've always done it that way doesn't mean it's not incredibly stupid. --despair.com



jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Ashburn, VA
kudos:1

said by fireflier:

They've survived other internet advancements (graphic heavy pages, flash, shockwave, MP3, etc) without these conditions. As an apparent advocate of free market capitalism, you should be suggesting the telcos deal with what's coming and let the strongest and smartest survive.
Unfortunately the strongest and biggest have decided they want to place crippling caps on our service. And in Canada, the biggest and most irritating is allowed to make sure that all competition must follow their lead in throttling.

There is no legitimate free market capitalism here. Not in the sense where it is beneficial or advantageous to the consumers.


Brett Schulte

@sbcglobal.net
reply to FFH

said by FFH:

compiled the latest set of data concerning the growth of Internet traffic
A lot of these predictions that the internet WON'T face much higher bandwidth demand is based on past statistics. But a paradigm break is in process. The past statistics can't recognize the tremendous growth of online high def video that is coming. Those predicting drastic growth may be more prescient than the statisticians looking backward.
I'm with you - everyone seems to be adding broadband "On Demand" to their Direct TV, Netflix to their Xbox, etc. I see a crunch coming as soon as this holiday... it's not hard to imagine bandwidth would at least triple using these new services... people who go from minimal email and web use are now downloading multi-gig movies!