fireflier
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join:2001-05-25
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| reply to GOLFnSUN
Re: Past statistics don't always show future trends
Are you copying this stuff right off of a list of telco talking points?
»Past may not be prelude
Based on present ISP measures, the evil growth of which you speak will never take place since they'll cap the hell out of anything that's not sourced from their own servers.
Assuming tremendous growth of high def video really isn't any more accurate than using past years' data to predict future growth. Who can say with certainty what HD video is actually going to do on the internet.
At least looking at the past--say--5 years is going to indicate whether some sort of non-linear increase is taking place which could be extrapolated. Assuming some kind of 'oh my freaking God the world is going to end because of HD' growth is practically pulling numbers out of one's ass.
If someone has concrete numbers to represent this paradigm shi(f)t you keep referencing, I'm sure many people here would like to see them.
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Tradition: Just because you've always done it that way doesn't mean it's not incredibly stupid. --despair.com |
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GOLFnSUN
Enjoy the sun
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join:2002-03-03
Avalon, NJ
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 ·Comcast
| said by fireflier  :Assuming tremendous growth of high def video really isn't any more accurate than using past years' data to predict future growth. Who can say with certainty what HD video is actually going to do on the internet. How about story after story about Apple TV; Roku; Sling; Xbox; PS3 and now the Blockbuster STB being discussed in the BBR story right after this one.
It is anecdotal evidence right now, but it does speak to a change coming and coming very soon. A massive change in user actions in TV watching is being predicted here and everywhere on the net. And the statistics doesn't show it yet, but predictions say it is coming.
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jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Reston, VA | Is this anything like the massive change in user actions with music listening? Are we going to have to suffer through a bunch of control freaks that will stifle innovation and hold firm to an outdated business model until the very end? |
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fireflier
Coffee. . .Need Coffee
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| reply to GOLFnSUN
While it does represent a potential traffic increase--the significance of which cannot be accurately determined at this point--I don't know that (and I don't think it can be proven) the traffic increase will result in a sudden discontinuity in the slope/curve of traffic over time that would necessitate such drastic actions, e.g. things the telcos are askig for like lower taxes, subsidies, and relaxed regulations.
They've survived other internet advancements (graphic heavy pages, flash, shockwave, MP3, etc) without these conditions. As an apparent advocate of free market capitalism, you should be suggesting the telcos deal with what's coming and let the strongest and smartest survive.
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Tradition: Just because you've always done it that way doesn't mean it's not incredibly stupid. --despair.com |
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jmn1207
Premium
join:2000-07-19
Reston, VA
 ·Verizon FIOS
| said by fireflier :They've survived other internet advancements (graphic heavy pages, flash, shockwave, MP3, etc) without these conditions. As an apparent advocate of free market capitalism, you should be suggesting the telcos deal with what's coming and let the strongest and smartest survive. Unfortunately the strongest and biggest have decided they want to place crippling caps on our service. And in Canada, the biggest and most irritating is allowed to make sure that all competition must follow their lead in throttling.
There is no legitimate free market capitalism here. Not in the sense where it is beneficial or advantageous to the consumers. |
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