Are you copying this stuff right off of a list of telco talking points?
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Past may not be preludeBased on present ISP measures, the evil growth of which you speak will never take place since they'll cap the hell out of anything that's not sourced from their own servers.
Assuming tremendous growth of high def video really isn't any more accurate than using past years' data to predict future growth. Who can say with certainty what HD video is actually going to do on the internet.
At least looking at the past--say--5 years is going to indicate whether some sort of non-linear increase is taking place which could be extrapolated. Assuming some kind of 'oh my freaking God the world is going to end because of HD' growth is practically pulling numbers out of one's ass.
If someone has concrete numbers to represent this paradigm shi(f)t you keep referencing, I'm sure many people here would like to see them.