kapil
The Kapil
join:2000-04-26
Chicago, IL
| Oh Sprint.
Sprint has a very bad habit of fucking things up. They are always first to make the leap to new technology...but always find a way to screw up the business end of things.
So, now, what is Sprint's business plan? Sell Xohm to Clearwire and essentially become a MVNO of a company it partially owns when customers want to upgrade to 4G?
Or is Sprint hoping to let others build the network and then buy back all of clear when Sprint's current cash crunch is behind them?
Or is Sprint offloading Xohm because the vision for clear is to become a third alternative to the cable/ilec duopoly. Essentially a replacement for "wireline" products. This way Sprint still profits from Clear while it will go off and build it's own, probably LTE based, 4G network for voice and data?
I see why they dumped Xohm...it was going to cost money they didn't have....but I don't see the long term strategy....unless the real end game is to dump capital intensive projects like Xohm and bulk up on subscriber numbers by paying MVNOs a premium for adding subs and dropping prices below the competition so that Sprint is an attractive acquisition target.
Problem is, who is going to acquire Sprint? AT&T and T-Mo have incompatible technology. Verizon Wireless just swallowed Alltel and has neither the cash nor the regulatory blessing for another competition-reducing merger.
So, it would have to be a foreign company. SK Telecom was rumored to be interested, but walked away after the helio debacle.
My guess? Either an Indian or Chinese mobile provider....or Sprint goes it alone.
...or Sprint goes under.
The most likely scenario? Dan Hesse pulls a miracle out of his ass. He turns Sprint around by stopping consumer defections, improving customer service and offering a compelling product for a cheaper price than Sprint.
By all accounts, Sprint is already firing on all those cylinders.
So in 1-3 years, Sprint comes out on top...less debt than T or VZ, yet a smaller more nimble company that has plenty of room for growth. Hopefully, by then the credit crunch has eased and Sprint can borrow the money it needs to either buy a controlling stake in Clear. This way, it owns the best 4G network, has a head start on competition and has a captive MVNO customer base via partners like TWC and Comcast and Google.
None of the current participants in the Clear syndicate know anything about building or running a wireless network...so they will only be too happy to let Sprint take over while still providing them what they need....the cable companies get a way to compete with the ILECs and Google gets competition to fight the monopoly of the ILECs.
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»www.Digium.com |
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SHABAZZ
join:2008-07-13
Seattle, WA
| Sprint already owns 51 percent of Clear. Intel, the cable companies, Google and the original Clearwire investors all own a minority stake. Management wise the 4G network is going to be ran like Verizon Wireless is being run. Verizon owns 51 percent of Verizon wireless and Vodafone owns the rest. And the people at Clear know a lot about building and running wireless networks. McCaw became a billionaire by selling then wire line operator ATT its wireless network. And most of the other executives and employees came from other carriers. |
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wayne8888
join:2005-10-16
Baltimore, MD
 ·XOHM WiMAX
 ·Cavalier Telephone
| reply to kapil
Great and thoughtful post! Haven't there been people buying and activating XOHM hardware outside of Baltimore (like DC, Philly, and I believe even Chicago area)? I imagine as long as they don't get shut down they can lock in with the more favorable XOHM vs Clear plan (provided they are in coverage). I know that DSL and even cable providers here in Baltimore must be shaking in their boots at competition from the home connection plans and speeds (especially upload speeds).
Wayne |
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bshelly
Premium
join:2002-02-17
Schaumburg, IL
clubs:
 ·VOIPo
·AT&T CallVantage
| Well, as a Xohm customer in the Chicago area, I can say that Clear has a long way to go to fill in the MANY gaps of coverage they have here. I realize it's not officially launched, but they were supposed to go live with Xohm here before the end of 2008.
If they choose the Xohm pricing model here, it will probably take off like a rocket ship. If they choose Clear's pricing model, well...they might fail miserably.
I'm just happy to be locked in at $50/mo. for both my home and USB modem. The towers here in Chicago still need more bandwidth as I believe they are still being fed by T1 or microwave depending on the site as my speeds are pretty miserable out in the Aurora and Schaumburg areas. If I go downtown Chicago, they are fantastic.
I hope Clear is successful, but caps and high pricing is not going to help them in the 4G race as LTE might just sneak up on them and have the marketing power of the AT&T and Verizon names backing them even if they are capped and restricted as many are predicting. The good thing about WiMax is that there are no contracts and it is available in some markets already today. |
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rawgerz
In Debt we trust
Premium
join:2004-10-03
Grove City, PA | reply to kapil
They already own half of clearwire's stock. |
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karpodiem
join:2008-05-20 | reply to kapil
Nice post, good foresight. |
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