 marigoldsGainfully employed, finallyPremium,MVM
join:2002-05-13
Saint Louis, MO
kudos:1 | 6.15% Penetration?According to the briefing, U-Verse passes 17 million living units now with 1.045M subscribers. That's only 6.15% penetration. Their goal had been mid-teens by the end of 2008.
Looking at their numbers from past presentations
In thousands
Subs Homes Penetration
1Q07 13 (1000) (1.30%)
2Q07 51 (3000) (1.70%)
3Q07 126 (5000) (2.52%)
4Q07 231 (7000) (3.30%)
1Q08 379 9000 4.21%
2Q08 549 11000 4.99%
3Q08 781 14000 5.58%
4Q08 1045 17000 6.15%
Homes passed is not reported before 1Q 2008, but no "ramp up" in deployment is reported before 3Q 2008, so the straight linear growth assumption might not be a bad one.
Market penetration is growing, but 6% would kill a cable company; this is definitely being backed by sheer investment and still has a ways to go to be a successful venture.
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| Do you have links or can you post the source of "their goal had been mid-teens by the end of 2008" ?? I'm interested.
My first thought is, how do you reconcile that they've been tracking to their numbers on installs, if the penetration percentage is 1/2 or less of what they predicted? I don't see how that adds up -- unless they are passing way more homes than they predicted. |
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marigoldsGainfully employed, finallyPremium,MVM
join:2002-05-13
Saint Louis, MO
kudos:1
1 edit | Look through their quarterly slide shows:
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
»www.att.com/Investor/Financial/E···de_c.pdf
Start with the last one (4Q08) and work backwards. Maybe they define penetration as how many existing weird AT&T customers with advanced services are taking on uverse services in uverse passed areas? Of course, that's a nearly non-sense way of presenting it when they have declining wired customer numbers.
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cwh
join:2006-05-14
San Antonio, TX | and they also said they are getting mid teens market penetration in markets open 18 months. |
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