Cable Industry Still Fighting Kevin Martin's Ghost > 70-70 test is for systems with at least 36 channels

reply to Bill Dollar

Re: 70-70 test is for systems with at least 36 channels

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In order to base our decision on the facts, Commissioners need access to all the facts. Unfortunately, the most important data we have – the FCC’s own numbers – were suppressed from the Commissioners until the last minute. I did not learn until after 7:00 pm last night that the FCC’s own 2006 survey found that only 54 percent of homes passed subscribe to cable. Similarly, the FCC’s cable price survey came in at 55.2 percent penetration.

Based on these newly unearthed facts and the conflicting evidence on the record, I am unable to support a finding that 70 percent of homes passed subscribe to cable at this time. The data is inconclusive. If we were truly searching for the truth, it is inconceivable that our own data would be cast aside without mention. It was just last year that I called for more rigorous data collection by the FCC. To find that this years’ FCC data was suppressed casts a long shadow over this endeavor. They tried to hide the ball from their own team.

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Moreover, the Commission’s attempt to rely solely on data from Warren Communications, while disregarding a multitude of other sources, is troubling. A thorough and transparent analysis of the available data – both from the FCC and independent sources – on cable penetration rates was sorely missing from the initial draft of this item. The Commission has in its possession at least four sources of cable penetration rates that were cited in previous reports: Warren, Nielsen, Kagan and FCC Form 325.

In blatant contrast to previous reports, no source but Warren was cited in the initial draft, and it took a majority vote to fix that deficiency. While not determinative, it is noteworthy that all of these sources, except Warren, concluded that current cable penetration rates are less than 70 percent. We also must give careful consideration to new data, added at the last minute to the report, supplied by leading consumer advocates finding that penetration rates exceed 70 percent. I appreciate the efforts of these advocates to advance our understanding of the marketplace.

Our job of ascertaining the facts was made more difficult because the draft cherry-picked only the data that justified the outcome desired, while suppressing other data. I believe that it is our obligation to ensure that our decisions are objective and based on the facts, not outcome-driven for political expediency. Much like our media ownership studies, which are outcome-driven to support the media consolidation agenda, there was an attempt to cook the books on this report.

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Well, first, you should know that the FCC's data is based on a survey that is not scientific, because it only is required of the largest systems. Thus the need for the current proceeding to fix the survey. Warren's data is nearly a census of all providers.

Second, the back story on the politics here -- Adelstein hated Martin with a passion. Adelstein is also very close to the cable industry, and at the time was very concerned with his prospects for renomination to the Commission. He made the political calculation that he needed at least one industry group to support him in the Senate Commerce Committee, and particularly to get Sen. Rockefeller to agree to move on his nomination. Adelstein had no friends in broadcast or telecom, so cable became his only option. His traditional allies -- consumer groups -- had no leverage for his renomination, and he thus felt free to ignore their calls for a yes vote on 70-70.

It is telling the difference between Copps' statement that day, and Adelsteins.

Oh well. His renomination is now going nowhere, and he is due to be an ambassador to some far away land. Nice job!

I think the Warren data is only one source and hence still suspect. This is why there is a need for additional investigation. What about the Nielsen or Kagan data?

I also think there is a large consensus that Martin had telco on the brain and history shows us that he would do anything in his power to kill cable. "Cooking the books" is par for his course.

[my thoughts, not facts]

Interesting you mention Nielsen. Consumers Union did their own analysis of 70-70 with Nielsen data as the primary source, and demonstrated 70-70 had likely been met. Media Access Project used ABI data, and also concluded 70-70 had been met.

And yes, Martin had it out for cable, no doubt about that. It just so happened that on this issue he at least had more than just telco on his side.

CU: »tinyurl.com/d7za6m
MAP: »tinyurl.com/czmrgd

Whether it has been met or not probably really doesn't matter because with the new administration and Democrat controlled Congress the cable industry will probably face regulation worse than anything Martin would have thrown at them.

Well, actually, the conventional wisdom is just the opposite. The coziness of the Congressional Black Caucus with cable and their strong opposition to a la carte means it isDoubtful there will be much if any cable regulation.

reply to Bill Dollar