keasonPremium
join:2002-05-02
Ann Arbor, MI Reviews:
 ·Comcast Business..
 ·QuantumVoice
 ·Sprint Mobile Br..
 ·AT&T Midwest
·AT&T DSL Service
·Comcast
| Moffett is simply looking at long term trends Trends:
POTS revenue has been declining steadily since the days of dial-up. Almost no one under age 30 has a land line, and the remainder of the age groups are replacing theirs with wireless or VoIP
TV Content is available on the internet and low/no charge beyond internet access. The free vs paid debate was already settled years ago.
Internet access speeds continue to increase with little/no price increase.
Top end cell plan revenue is declining. The 'cap' for an unlimited plan is $99 on its way to $50. Regional carriers already offer unlimited service for less ($30-$40)
As for volume, How many more cell phones can we support? Nearly everyone has one already over the age of 15.
The current economic situation has made both consumers and businesses rethink their spending on non-essential services. Since most consumers and nearly all business purchase excess communication services, it's a fairly easy place to cut. I typically see a 30-50% reduction in business costs after some analysis.
Since these trends are tied to long term profits and the telecom infrastructure is mostly fixed cost, the analysis makes sense. The real question is what will make consumers pay for the next iphone? It seems to me that apple is garnishing most of the profits when carrier kickbacks and app store profits are included, plus the spillover to mac sales.
The real point is that carriers are losing control of their networks, and are moving back to common carrier status |
