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joetaxpayer
I'M Here Till Thursday

join:2001-09-07
Sudbury, MA
reply to EG

Re: Bandwidth Limits/Congestion Management - All discussion here

said by EG:

I don't think that the capacity of one's HD is really a factor here.. ?
It may not, in reality, but perception is a lot.

I sit (a few years back) with my 120GB drive, and if I hear of a 100GB cap don't I think, "wow, I can download enough to fill the drive nearly every month. Anyone who demands more is either a pirate or streaming porn 24/7."

Now, with a couple TB drives, and legal streaming (I think we decided 5GB/2hr movie, no?) the 250GB seems not so large.
I happened to not be a NetFlix subscriber, but with TiVo in a few rooms, I could be one day.

I offer this just to illustrate how the drive can impact one's thinking, right or wrong.


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA

1 recommendation

said by joetaxpayer:

legal streaming (I think we decided 5GB/2hr movie, no?)
No.
HD stream is 1.5GB/hour (which is still a shade high, I believe, but could be possible for 1080p h.264 mpeg... 720p would run 1gb/hour. SD is .33 GB/hour)

So if all you do is stream legal video all day, you get
5.5 hours/day HD/1080p (1.5GB/hour)
8.33 hours/day HD/720p (1GB/hour)
25.25 hours/day (LOL!) SD (.33GB/hour)
Before you hit your 250GB cap.

Of course, you'll also be imaging your 3TB of hard drives to free cloud backup, and your 7 housemates will be streaming video, spending $600/mo on itunes, seeding every linux distro on bittorrent, and whatever else you can think of, so your actual use will be about 10-20X the cap


joetaxpayer
I'M Here Till Thursday

join:2001-09-07
Sudbury, MA
said by JohnInSJ:

HD stream is 1.5GB/hour
I'll take your word on that. Seems low to me as TiVo recordings seem to run 5GB/hr and I thought that was already subject to some kind of compression.
Given your numbers, 133 hrs = 200GB. Is it so beyond believing that a family who just signs up for NetFlix (during the summer when nothing else is on) starts averaging 4hrs a day, between the parents and their 2.5 kids? Kids do crazy things (remember "Go Ape" the Planet of the Apes marathon, all 5 movies in one day?) My example is contrived a bit, but still in the range of a normal possibility.


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA

1 recommendation

Tivo records mpg2, or likely at a higher quality then you can stream from Netflix. Normal "HD" streamed is h.264 mpeg (mpeg4) which (as we posted elsewhere above) runs anywhere from 1 to 1.5GB/hour for 720p or 1080p. This is the "HD" video you stream from Netflix (after all, they pay for bandwidth too), or get from iTunes.

OTA Broadcast HD (as a counter-point) is anywhere from 5-8GB/hour (if you record the ts yourself.)

We've beaten this horse so many ways its not even funny. Sure, you can come up with ways a family of 4 does nothing but watch streaming netflix all day, each on their own PC (wow, sign me up for that family, sounds GREAT!)

They could do it, but they'd run out of HD content in 2.5 months, if they watched every last DOG on netflix.

Just do it.


IPPlanMan
Holy Cable Modem Batman

join:2000-09-20
Washington, DC
kudos:1
reply to joetaxpayer
I think you've made a great point....

Funny how all of these arguments come down to assuming that no one does anything else with their connection but stream HD...

I guess regular downloading is not considered part of residential use....
I guess online backups are not considered residential use....
--
"We're going to start at one end of (Fallujah), and we're not going to stop until we get to the other. If there's anybody left when that happens, we're going to turn around and we're going to go back and finish it."
Lt. Col. Pete Newell: 1st Inf. US Army


IPPlanMan
Holy Cable Modem Batman

join:2000-09-20
Washington, DC
kudos:1

1 recommendation

reply to JohnInSJ
I'll say it again and again.... because I still don't think it's getting through.

Every day that goes by, 250 GB gets you less and less of the internet.... File sizes are constantly increasing as quality goes up for the content itself.

In fact, given the expansion of the internet's content, the dollar-value proposition of 250GB capped usage becomes worse and worse every day....

That, my friend, is an inarguable fact.
--
"We're going to start at one end of (Fallujah), and we're not going to stop until we get to the other. If there's anybody left when that happens, we're going to turn around and we're going to go back and finish it."
Lt. Col. Pete Newell: 1st Inf. US Army


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA

1 recommendation

quote:
I'll say it again and again
No argument there!

A full and balanced life might include more then the internet

250GB is the cap today. No doubt the cap will go up. Heck, no doubt you can use more then 250GB today, and still might be just fine.

No one is suggesting that 250GB is going to be a reasonable cap in 5 years. I'm not, anyway. Higher speeds, more competition, upgrades to the network, and yes, broad demand from more then 1% of the user base will indeed drive the caps higher.

But it's not today. Today, the great massive bulk of users won't come near it, so its a non-issue for them and comcast.

That, my friend, is an inarguable fact.

And we do another lap around the dead horse.


joetaxpayer
I'M Here Till Thursday

join:2001-09-07
Sudbury, MA
reply to IPPlanMan
said by IPPlanMan:

I think you've made a great point....

Funny how all of these arguments come down to assuming that no one does anything else with their connection but stream HD...

I guess regular downloading is not considered part of residential use....
I guess online backups are not considered residential use....
Thanks, glad you got it.
John didn't care too much for my one example, I understand that. At some point IPTV will be real, and maybe the 4 hours a day for 4 people (total, not each) won't seem like I'm constructing some pathetic family. The MRS and I average 15 hrs a week, and half of those are while on a treadmill. I'm not glued to the set. either way, I am sure Comcast will have detailed statistics about how the median numbers are creeping up, and they'll have to make some tough decisions.


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA
quote:
make some tough decisions.
Not tough at all to move the cap up. It's just a number representing some point where 99% of the users comfortably are under it.

Like you said, it just goes up as overall demand does.

They have traffic shaping (whatever they call it, de-prioritized scheduling?) already in place to address the local neighborhood congestion. The goal likely is always to skim off the 1% who use way more then the 99%, no matter what "way more" means.


IPPlanMan
Holy Cable Modem Batman

join:2000-09-20
Washington, DC
kudos:1

1 edit
said by JohnInSJ:

Not tough at all to move the cap up. It's just a number representing some point where 99% of the users comfortably are under it.

Like you said, it just goes up as overall demand does.

I disagree...

The cap has officially been at 250GB since October 1st of last year...

And before it was official, I'm sure that it was somewhere around that as well... for how many years going on?

I've seen the US Government move faster than this...
--
"We're going to start at one end of (Fallujah), and we're not going to stop until we get to the other. If there's anybody left when that happens, we're going to turn around and we're going to go back and finish it."
Lt. Col. Pete Newell: 1st Inf. US Army


espaeth
Digital Plumber
Premium,MVM
join:2001-04-21
Minneapolis, MN
kudos:2

1 recommendation

said by IPPlanMan:

The cap has officially been at 250GB since October 1st of last year...

And before it was official, I'm sure that it was somewhere around that as well... for how many years going on?
You might have missed it, but a couple pages back sortofageek See Profile posted a FAQ link that includes post links to 2003 where people reported getting "the letter" (the precursor to "the call") for traffic volumes as low as 80GB/mo.

»Comcast High Speed Internet FAQ »Does Comcast have bandwidth use limits?

Clearly the situation has changed over the years.


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA
reply to IPPlanMan
quote:
The cap has officially been at 250GB since October 1st of last year...
Wow... nearly 6 months... it will NEVER change!

Check back in a year. It will be higher. Perhaps, really really, you are on the high end of usage among all Comcast customers? Naw, it can't be you.


sturmvogel6
Obama '08

join:2008-02-07
Houston, TX
said by JohnInSJ:

quote:
The cap has officially been at 250GB since October 1st of last year...
Wow... nearly 6 months... it will NEVER change!

Check back in a year. It will be higher. Perhaps, really really, you are on the high end of usage among all Comcast customers? Naw, it can't be you.
Probably will change for the worse. Should we also hope when we check back in one year that the famed meter would be available shortly ?
--
Obama '08. Will help resolve the terrible broadband issues we have that put us so far behind other countries.


sturmvogel6
Obama '08

join:2008-02-07
Houston, TX
reply to espaeth
said by espaeth:

said by IPPlanMan:

The cap has officially been at 250GB since October 1st of last year...

And before it was official, I'm sure that it was somewhere around that as well... for how many years going on?
You might have missed it, but a couple pages back sortofageek See Profile posted a FAQ link that includes post links to 2003 where people reported getting "the letter" (the precursor to "the call") for traffic volumes as low as 80GB/mo.

»Comcast High Speed Internet FAQ »Does Comcast have bandwidth use limits?

Clearly the situation has changed over the years.
It would be interesting to plot the growth/year of the CC cap, advertised internet access speeds (yeah, we know the up to disclaimer) and disk storage.

I have a feeling that the less steep curve would be ...
--
Obama '08. Will help resolve the terrible broadband issues we have that put us so far behind other countries.


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA
reply to sturmvogel6
quote:
Probably will change for the worse.
Change we can believe in, eh?

Seriously, why would you expect it to get worse? I get that you cannot grasp how 250GB is "just a number" picked such that 99 out of 100 comcast customers would never notice a cap. But if you could just, for a moment, assume that might be true, then as the average usage goes up (which you tell me MUST happen since everyone will be using more and more high-bandwidth services) then the cap will have to go up, since say 10 or 20 out of 100 will start bumping into it.


sturmvogel6
Obama '08

join:2008-02-07
Houston, TX

1 edit
Yeah, I would. If they are rooting out the heavy users, then their average/median usage could come out as lower numbers. Then they could invoke "market conditions", usage trendings, the weather at the South Pole and lower the caps. Just my opinion.

After all, we have seen this lower service for the same price trend. First it was (implied) unlimited, now it is heavily limited.

--
Obama '08. Will help resolve the terrible broadband issues we have that put us so far behind other countries.


JohnInSJ
Premium
join:2003-09-22
Aptos, CA
quote:
now it is heavily limited
1/4 of a TB is not "heavily limited".

They will always root out the heavy users, as those are customers they don't make money on. They're in this for the money, or did you not know that? If you want to get a public utility for broadband, Comcast isn't it. Likely that would be very slow (so slow you'd never pull down 1/4 of a TB/mo) if it did happen.

What other options are available for you? Seriously.


sturmvogel6
Obama '08

join:2008-02-07
Houston, TX
said by JohnInSJ:

quote:
now it is heavily limited
1/4 of a TB is not "heavily limited".

For which I am paying 1/25000 of a million dollars. Using divisions of larger units works both ways.
--
Obama '08. Will help resolve the terrible broadband issues we have that put us so far behind other countries.


IPPlanMan
Holy Cable Modem Batman

join:2000-09-20
Washington, DC
kudos:1
reply to JohnInSJ
said by JohnInSJ:

quote:
now it is heavily limited
1/4 of a TB is not "heavily limited".

They will always root out the heavy users, as those are customers they don't make money on. They're in this for the money, or did you not know that? ......

What other options are available for you? Seriously.
1/4 of a TB is becoming more and more limited...

They'd make money if they switched to metered billing.... and that would show that they're in it for the money. Because what the cap does is it keeps other sources of media like iTunes/Apple TV, Sling Box, NetFlix Streaming, etc. from grabbing any kind of real foothold since Comcast doesn't make money on them. I mean jeez... it's not hard to use up 1GB of bandwidth on an iChat conference while you're downloading something from the iTunes store. So all of your hypothetical bandwidth calculations don't take things like that into account. It's a glaring omission in my opinion.

What other options?... Fios.... hopefully soon.
--
"We're going to start at one end of (Fallujah), and we're not going to stop until we get to the other. If there's anybody left when that happens, we're going to turn around and we're going to go back and finish it."
Lt. Col. Pete Newell: 1st Inf. US Army


IPPlanMan
Holy Cable Modem Batman

join:2000-09-20
Washington, DC
kudos:1
reply to JohnInSJ
said by JohnInSJ:

Seriously, why would you expect it to get worse?
It's getting worse everyday.... the cap is the same and files are getting larger. New technology like the SlingBox/Apple TV/NetFlix Streaming/Vonage comes out and oh look at that... the cap is still 250GB.
--
"We're going to start at one end of (Fallujah), and we're not going to stop until we get to the other. If there's anybody left when that happens, we're going to turn around and we're going to go back and finish it."
Lt. Col. Pete Newell: 1st Inf. US Army


funchords
Hello
Premium,MVM
join:2001-03-11
Yarmouth Port, MA
kudos:6
reply to JohnInSJ
said by JohnInSJ:

quote:
The cap has officially been at 250GB since October 1st of last year...
Wow... nearly 6 months... it will NEVER change!

Check back in a year. It will be higher.
Care to put some money on that prediction, John? (I have no inside knowledge.)
--
Robb Topolski -= funchords.com =- World Traveller -- KJ7RL
... Do something! ...


DarkLogix
Texan and Proud
Premium
join:2008-10-23
Baytown, TX
kudos:3
It'll change someday
but with the others putting is rock bottom caps they might lower it not raise it

lets hope verizon stays uncapped so that its a bad idea to lower the cap for Comcast