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Prediction: The 250G Cap Will Increase
said by JohnInSJ:You know, what you've said is exactly right.
Honestly, with widespread moves to 12.5, 25, 50Mbps service the usage will continue to climb, and caps will move up.
So sure, in a few years (years >=2) comcast won't be able to justify 250gb as a cap, and it will go up. But its not likely to happen this week
I've been kind of sitting on the sidelines this whole time, watching, because I think that the majority of what there is to be said has already been said. I hate this issue the whole way around, and honestly, talking about it just makes me want to find the nearest wall and bash myself against it until I forget about what I was thinking about. I was wrong at the very beginning about the original throttling (I didn't believe it), and I was wrong about them implementing this cap (didn't think it would ever happen).
That said, I'm completely sure I can predict that a few years down the road, they're going to be stuck with a number of interesting problems which they've created for themselves:
• The 250GB number in and of itself, is arbitrary. What makes 250GB so special? I have yet to see any sort of statistical, logical, reasonable backing behind the number other than "it's a reasonable number, and if you're downloading more than it, you're obviously just a warez/P2P/streaming radio ripper/streaming video junkie/pr0n addict." Until Comcast demonstrates something, anything reasonable about this number which makes it intrinsically special, I'm still calling it out.
• There is still no provision for increasing the cap over time as the network capacity scales. Everyone keeps talking about how DOCSIS 3.0 is coming with faster speeds, well, capacity is going to increase if Comcast (and other ISPs) don't immediately increase their caps so that they're in the same concurrency-saturation problem again. There's some sort of Moore's law equivalent here where the cap should be linked to a statistically correlated value, which gives us the cap. Anything else is purely arbitrary.
• User base usage as a whole is increasing. Netflix, Hulu, and other streaming, web-dependent, bandwidth intense applications are coming, and the networks are already straining. Comcast has certainly done a better job than other ISPs at managing the slow but steady increase of traffic, but still, at some point very soon 250GB is going to feel a whole lot tighter than it does now. Unless that cap is growing with some sort of correlation to what the majority of userbase is doing monthly, everyone is going to run into that brick wall.
"Some people never see the light till it shines thru bullet holes." -Bruce Cockburn
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