ghostpainter
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2 edits | Hurricane Andres Moves North along Mexican Coast TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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ghostpainter
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| Re: TS Andres in the Eastern Pacific. Mexico TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...ANDRES MOVING SLOWLY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...295 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 325 MILES...
525 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR...
AND A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ANDRES COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.2N 102.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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SmokChsr
Who let the magic smoke out?
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Saint Augustine, FL
| TROPICAL STORM ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009
...ANDRES GETTING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTO SAN
TELMO.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. | |
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ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| Re: TS Andres in the Eastern Pacific. Mexico Tropical Storm ANDRES is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mexico
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 75% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tomatlan (19.9 N, 105.2 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
Manzanillo (19.2 N, 104.3 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours
probability for TS is 75% within 9 hours
San Lucas (22.9 N, 109.9 W)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
For graphical forecast information and further details please visit »www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
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ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDRES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
...CENTER OF ANDRES PASSING WEST OF MANZANILLO...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES...110 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ANDRES WILL CONTINUE
PASSING VERY CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 MPH...
120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ANDRES IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
70 MILES...110 KM. MANZANILLO MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 46 MPH...76 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVEL...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.0N 105.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
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ghostpainter
I Write for the Apocalypse
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| TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009
...ANDRES WEAKENING...
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ANDRES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AND ABOUT 315
MILES...505 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ANDRES IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.5N 106.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Why is it that people who never pay attention to the weather are always the first to complain.
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