aliasrlz
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join:2000-09-01
the world |  Can we discuss stock picks and trading in here?
Just asking....
I would like to discuss (with some traders) if they are playing any earnings runs, or other stuff. I do short term trading quite a bit with a select few stocks and would like to share ideas...... |
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Gomez
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| said by aliasrlz  :Just asking.... I would like to discuss (with some traders) if they are playing any earnings runs, or other stuff. I do short term trading quite a bit with a select few stocks and would like to share ideas...... If it's informed discussion, sure.. if it's "Strong support at 0, bury what you left", there might be a problem.  Pimping penny stocks probably won't fly either.
There are a lot of sectors doing just fine, and many independent traders doing fine as well.. it's just not as easy as it was.
That said, go for it.
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SmackWeasel
join:2008-01-02
| reply to aliasrlz
said by aliasrlz :Just asking.... I would like to discuss (with some traders) if they are playing any earnings runs, or other stuff. I do short term trading quite a bit with a select few stocks and would like to share ideas...... Count me in. I'm always up for good discussion on trading.
I've been trading commodities futures and options for almost 20 years. Though I personally don't trade equities, I am able to discuss fundamentals as well as overall market conditions in the equities markets,
If you are interested in discussing technical analysis (charting) of any particular stock or commodity, I could help you spot trends or interpret technical indicators.
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Archivis
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| reply to aliasrlz
What do you guys know about day trading? I'm curious to know what the rules are or what any hurdles would be in doing the day trading. I'm aware that it's a high risk deal, but I'm curious what kind of regulartory hurdles there would be in doing day trading from your computer at home.
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Nanoprobe
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1 edit | If you are going to day trade here are a few suggestions that I used when I did that.
1st. I would recommend you use a reputable company that has a track record. Do your homework. The cheapest is not necessarily the best.
2nd. Set stop limits. Don't hang on to a loser with the hope that it will come back. I personally used 8% as mine but anything below 10% is a good rule to follow. If a stock dropped 8% I sold it and moved on. That way you can cover multiple losers with only 1 or 2 that perfrom well.
3rd. In this market I would not daytrade unless I was prepared to sit in front of my computer and keep an eye on my trades. Things are very volitale these days and IMHO the days of making trades in the AM and checking your results in the PM are gone.
4th. Do your best to keep the emotional part to a minimum. Daytrading is not for the weak of heart and emotional decisions are usually bad ones.
5th. Practice trading before you actually risk your own money. Most people don't learn to fly an airplane without the proper training and practice first. Many of the discount online brokers have programs that will allow you to "paper trade" to learn the ropes. I can't recommend that enough if you've never day traded before.
6th. Read #2 again.
7th DO YOUR HOMEWORK FIRST
Hope this helps you.
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Archivis
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| Thanks for the advice. I used to play in the fantasy stock market all the time. It used the real time stats, but my "handicap" was that orders/sales went through 20 minutes afterwards, so any changes in stock price came through.
I'm fairly knowledgeable about what to expect in that regards. I did extremely well by simply observing the behavior of the markets in relation to press releases. I learned a lot that way. I very much intend to do my homework when I'm ready, I just thought I could speak to some folks who were experienced about it.
If I were to use something like e-trade, would they limit the amount of purchases/sales in a certain period of time?
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'A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have.' -Thomas Jefferson - |
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SmackWeasel
join:2008-01-02
| said by Archivis :Thanks for the advice. I used to play in the fantasy stock market all the time. It used the real time stats, but my "handicap" was that orders/sales went through 20 minutes afterwards, so any changes in stock price came through. I'm fairly knowledgeable about what to expect in that regards. I did extremely well by simply observing the behavior of the markets in relation to press releases. I learned a lot that way. I very much intend to do my homework when I'm ready, I just thought I could speak to some folks who were experienced about it. If I were to use something like e-trade, would they limit the amount of purchases/sales in a certain period of time? Also I might mention the software (high $$$) you'd have to purchase or rent as well as the real time quote services. plus not to mention broker commissions you'd be paying on a daily basis.
Brokers try and sell you the dream of getting in a trade in the morning and getting out before diner insuring a good nights sleep. But Nanoprobe is spot on about the time you will be investing, as there isn't a 6-7 hour trading day anymore, trading is on a 24 hour basis now.
I position trade. That is, I look for a trend. follow it and add to my trades untill I'm ready to take a profit. (usually 2-3 weeks) I don't need to be too precise in my timing or my quotes. Also think about it; if you got in a trade today, got out tonight, if the trade still looked good, wouldn't you be getting in the same trade again the next day? If yes you'd be generating another broker commission and they do mount up.
Don't want to discourage you from trading because it can be very rewarding but just to let you know there's more then one way to trade.
To answer your E-trade question...the limit for buying depends on the amount of money in your account. Unless your shorting or writing options. Because then your risk would be much higher then the amount of your initial trade.
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Archivis
Your Daddy
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Earth | No, thanks for the info. I do appreciate it. Things have changed since I last fooled around. |
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Archivis
Your Daddy
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| Also, if you wrote a mammoth sized post, I'd probably read it. I'm not in a hurry to just dump and do this for the sake of doing it, but I am interested in getting information on other people's experiences.
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Archivis
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| Also, much of my success was in camping news reports all day, every day, waiting for the one that I felt was going to pump up a stock price. I found that FDA approval on certain drugs was easy money. I'd be watching my news release feeder (which updated by the second), scan the article as fast as I could and have stocks purchased within a minute of the news release.
I'd ride the hype wave for 30-45 minutes and sell it. I'm curious if I can do the same thing again.
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'A government big enough to give you everything you want, is strong enough to take everything you have.' -Thomas Jefferson - |
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SmackWeasel
join:2008-01-02
2 edits | reply to Archivis
Have you ever considered trading options? The leverage is tremendous. Also you can utilize options as a sort of insurance policy on a position you hold.
Options trading can be complicated at first so I'd advice you use your browser and check out the basics yourself. if you have any questions after you've read up on them, I'd be glad to answer them. I've been trading the options markets exclusively for a number of years now.
Here's something I recently found and am thinking of playing around with:
»www.ehow.com/how_2076309_underst···ons.html
These guys offer binary options:
»www.nadex.com/trade/binary-options.html
...but don't confuse these puppies with the normal vanilla type options, they are very different in principal. Just these binary options are a lot like day trading without the high cost.
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SmackWeasel
join:2008-01-02
| reply to Archivis
said by Archivis :Also, much of my success was in camping news reports all day, every day, waiting for the one that I felt was going to pump up a stock price. I found that FDA approval on certain drugs was easy money. I'd be watching my news release feeder (which updated by the second), scan the article as fast as I could and have stocks purchased within a minute of the news release. I'd ride the hype wave for 30-45 minutes and sell it. I'm curious if I can do the same thing again. Sure you could do that, that's what's called; Fundamental Trading, or I should say trading off fundamental information.
I follow fundamentals for a trigger. I actually make my trades based on chart action.
I should also point out that I only trade commodities, not stocks (equities) But just like you, I scan the news and I can't help but learn about recent stock trends as well as the commodity and currencies.
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Nanoprobe
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| reply to Archivis
said by Archivis :If I were to use something like e-trade, would they limit the amount of purchases/sales in a certain period of time? I'm only guessing but I think that would depend on the amount of money you used to open an account. I wouldn't think they would put on limits when they make their money on the trades. I'm sure everything is listed in the TOS of whoever you choose to trade with.
SmackWeasel also mention options and they are a great investing tool once you get the hang of it. They offer a higher degree of protection no matter which way the stock moves.
Whatever you decide, good luck and most of all have fun. You seem like you have the temperment to do this after reading your posts.
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aliasrlz
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join:2000-09-01
the world
1 edit | reply to aliasrlz
Ok,
I'll tell you what I'm doing....... I am playing the earnings run for a few companies....
I missed Google's (GOOG) earnings run because I checked up on the report date too late. I still own CORE GOOG shares that I am keeping....
I played the Apple's (AAPL) earning run and made some chump change (happy with it, then walked away). I also have CORE AAPL shares that I will keep for many years to come...
I am currently playing Sirius XM's (SIRI) earnings run. Bought 55,000 shares at .3969...... Earnings to be reported on 8/6. Not sure if I will hold or let go just before earnings are reported.
Now, I am not recommending, pumping, or anything, just telling you what I have done, and am doing. I will also play the Research In Motion (Blackberry, RIMM) earnings run in September about 2 weeks prior to the report date.
I get in, then get out on earnings day. If I feel risky, I'll HOLD through the report. Google went DOWN after the report , but Apple went UP and kept going UP (heh). I have no idea what Sirius XM will do...(LOL). It is a 50/50 risk on how the market will react.
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aliasrlz
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1 edit | reply to aliasrlz
Also, I use E*Trade.....and I'm not so much a "daytrader" since I will hold stocks longer than a day (if a catalyst for movement of the stock is forthcoming).......so I'm more of a "trend" trader then.
I don't use any special software, but I do monitor the stocks daily that I am trend trading........
EDIT:
Also not shy to tell about big moves I blew in the last 3 months:
Should have sold SIRI back on April 20th (I had 30K shares back then at .38, could have sold in Premarket at .63, making $7500.00, but HELD too long and the stock dropped).
Also did the same thing on May 7th, identical scenario to April 20th, and HELD too long. Same thing happened in June, but the stock didn't go into the .60, but up tp .48. I had 40K shares around .38, and did not take my profits at .48 (around $4K), and held too long again.
So yes, I have had some "learning" (growing pains). I did take some profits in late June/July, then got back in at the .3969 I am currently at. |
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aliasrlz
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1 edit | reply to aliasrlz
Also, for those doing the math:
55K shares is $550.00 for every 1 penny move
40K shares, obviously $400.00 for every 1 penny move
30K shares, obviously $300 for every 1 penny move.....and so on & so on.... you get the idea.
This works in the OPPOSITE direction as well (could lose that much with every penny down), so as the others have said, it is NOT for the weak at heart or those not willing to take the RISK (of possibly losing it all) -- BIG FYI!
EDIT: The earnings calendar for those playing earnings run for some companies:
»biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html |
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SmackWeasel
join:2008-01-02
| reply to aliasrlz
If you bought SIRI at .39, your up a decent profit from today's .45 close.
Yea I don't have a lot of expensive software either and actually don't even trade on-line. I get my information on-line and call my broker direct to place trades. knowing what I know about the wild world of the Internet, I'd feel stupid placing financial information on my machine. Besides that, I use my machine for playing first person shooters to keep from over trading when I'm nervous or over anxious and wanting to over trade.
Following the earnings reports is strictly fundamental trading and fairly straight forward I would think. Personally I'd get totally lost if I couldn't view my trades on a chart. According to this chart SIRI is sitting just up from a multi-year low and volume is increasing. I would think it could break out: »www.investorguide.com/stock-char···0&maval=
Although I have read recently that the company intends to increase monthly service fees. Sounds a bit needy to me.
I know the feeling about worrying about staying in the trade till after the earnings report. In the commodities market it's the Fed watch on interest rates that we worry over and the so called bond vigilantes that kinda dominate the scene.
Your holding stocks for a while would be considered momentum or position trading, that's basically what I do, although since I trade options (mostly the precious metals) I'm always anxious to exit a trade with a profit since options lose time value. Although by writing options, (originating them as if you were the "house") time is on your side as the buyers of those options lose time value. Since the markets have quieted down for the summer, I've been writing a few options. But I'm anxious to get in a trade especially today when things seem to be heating up in advance of the fall trading "season".
Oh man talk about big moves blown! I put on a huge (for me) trade on Gold last fall betting on the upside. Thinking the stock market was gonna tank and as gold generally moves opposite the stock market. The stock market did indeed tank as you know, but took just about every other market with it except the dollar index (traders were closing all positions to scramble for cash to meet margin calls).
I'm playing my cards tight to the chest this year. Actually mirroring my personal nemesis Goldman Sachs. The commercial traders (big banks) usually win over the small traders.
Yea it takes a certain personality to trade the markets. here are some statistics I remember from my earlier trading days:
- 70% of all new option traders lose the entire amount of money they originally placed in their brokerage account by the first 4 months.
- 90% of all new options traders end their trading careers by the first year.
- Of the remaining 10% only 1% survive for more than 5 years
- Of those that remain, the learning curve (conquering the fear and greed factor) is about 7-8 years and about $50,000 in losses (that includes monies won as well as out of pocket)
- After 10 years option traders actually start earning an average of about $50,000 a year
- After 20 years of trading options, a trader can expect to earn a good deal for his/her efforts and perseverance.
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aliasrlz
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| Heya, nice to share with you (& all other traders) here...
Yes, I guess you can call me a position or trend trader then 
I'm up about $3K right now (.45-.3969) x 55,000 shares = $2920.50, minus my commission fees, of course 
I will definitely HOLD through the morning of August 6th, then decide if I want to keep through the earnings call, report, and after. I think in the long run, the company will be fine, but I'm not ready to go LONG (hold years) on SIRI .... need to make some money now
I'm too scurred (lol) to play options.....not only do you have to guess (estimate the strike price), but you have to time the market as well (the month). I have a difficult enough time with estimating the direction, heh One day, I will give options a try.
GOOG retired a lot of people one quarter last year when everyone thought they were going to blow earnings (another of Cramer's BAD calls), and they had outstanding earnings and the stock shot up $100 per share that day. Shorts were MURDERED, and the options made a lot of people rich because they were being sold for mere "pennies" before earnings. I know one guy that had $10K worth of options, and they were worth near $300K by the end of the day. We all told him to SELL (now), SELL, get out, pay off your house, and enjoy
GS is one of my favorites, but I'm not happy with all the stuff I'm hearing about the company lately. I know I can't take it personally, but when some of their dirty tricks hurts shareholders, it pisses me off.
Yeah, the numbers don't look good for noobs , but you are right, there is a "learning" curve.
Here's another I blew for you (you will laugh)..... I bought CTIC (small pharma) in May (I believe), 10K shares at .35/ea..so $3500 worth (no biggie). Needed a little cash one week, so sold it when it hit .40 , making $500.00 (minus the buy/sell commissions of $26 total). 2 days after I sold it, the stock blew UP ...over $1.00+ I wanted to cry.......even hit over $2.00 a week or so later.. I kept thinking, $15K plus, blown by 2 days, LOL!
Oh well, could have went the other way as well..... As they say, Bears make money, Bulls make money, Pigs get slaughtered... Live & learn...happens all the time in this market
Let's keep exchanging ideas.....I'm scared of the commodities as well, heh. Thought about them as a "hedge" against the dropping dollar, but could never pull the trigger. |
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aliasrlz
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1 edit | reply to Archivis
said by Archivis :If I were to use something like e-trade, would they limit the amount of purchases/sales in a certain period of time? I use E*Trade.....If you have a "cash" account, you can only trade with the amount of cash available in the account. If you have a "margin" account, you will be allowed to trade against securities (stocks) in your account, typically a little more (can't give the % offhand) with their money (like a loan, at 6.99% interest). This is very HIGH RISK......keep this in mind. Margin accounts can be dangerous, especially in a volatile market, or a market in a recession or downturn. FYI.
EDIT: Also, there is no limit on the amount of trades. There are some new rules regarding maintenance fees and how much you need to have in single or joined accounts, but you can trade as much as you want, and there is NO minimum on the amount of shares you have to buy. Yes, you can buy (1) single share of a stock if you wish Not all brokers will allow that, but you can with E*Trade. |
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SmackWeasel
join:2008-01-02
| reply to aliasrlz
Yea it's good to be able to share with a fellow trader. The last economic forum I sat in on had a house full of perma-Goldbugs. These guys were relentless..always; buy gold...buy gold...buy gold. Hey, I'm a trader, I can go from bullish to bearish in a New York minute if I spot the right change.
I almost always trade options, can't be bothered trading futures. Mainly because the leverage isn't as good as the options and the return is exactly the same. Plus now that futures trade 24 hours round the clock, and I hate margin calls in the middle of the night when a position starts tanking.
No I ain't laughing at your boo-boo, I pulled one myself last year. I bought 20 call options (bullish bet) on the day gold bottomed at 680/oz. I knew that Gold was gonna to take off technically, but the thing is; I bought those really cheap (about $500 per contract) a few days before their expiration date. So I was quite nervous about holding them. Yep they took off all right, and I sold at 740/0z making what I thought was a quick and handsome profit. Best trade I made the whole year. In fact it made up for all my loses that year. Hell the next week gold shot up 200 bucks!...I could have scored 20 grand per options contract. ($200 X 100oz per contract = $20,000) and I had 20 contracts. But you can't cry over a profit you couldda or shoudda made. And please don't ever cry over money you lost....lol
Funny, commodities scare you. Equities scare me. Seems like individual low volume stocks can easily be manipulated. I lived through and survived the recent bearish commodity trend and hope to make up for some of the blood sweat and tears I shed back then with this new bullish wave. Heh...if the equities start to tank, you're more than welcome to join my side of the trade.
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