aliasrlz
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the world
2 edits | reply to Koil
Re: Can we discuss stock picks and trading in here?
Hi Koil,
Now, don't get confused with my trading versus my longterm holdings. I do trade around my favorite stocks though 
It is important to me for my "core" holdings that the stock has 1) large institutional ownership, 2) excellent future growth potential, 3) little to ZERO debt (like AAPL, GOOG, RIMM), and 4) a big brand name (like all three). It helps that they are not directly (a little indirectly) affected by the suffering housing and financial sectors.
Stocks in a suffering sector, with boat loads of debt, scare me........ Note, I have played , and still play "spec" stocks as a TRADE ........I don't necessarily consider them good companies for the long term. SIRI, I'm on the fence with though , lol 
My exit on an earnings run, has been based on the past quarter's earnings performance. I'll research and find that a stock moved up , 5, or 10% before earnings prior, and set that as my get out (take my profits and run like hell). I have been stuck in not getting out if my exit price was not reached, and then I have to decide to 1) take the 50/50 risk and hold through earnings, 2) take what profit I have already, or 3) risk a loss & being a bagholder. I am currently at that stage with SIRI and NVDA, but I am UP (green) on SIRI right now.
As for stop loss (which is different than a sell limit where you are making money), it varies per person. Some have 10% loss (that is 10% below where they purchased at) and they get out, exit - For others, it may be 15%. It really depends on how much you stand to lose , or if you can handle losing it all? I get nervous with an over 10% loss (if its a trading stock, not a core holding), and will probably pull the trigger and suffer the loss at 15%.
I look at the Major Holders link, the Analysts Opinions, Analysts Estimates (present to 5 yrs out).....I also look at the Historical Prices over the years and recent quarter performance & guidance, and I do READ pretty much all the "Daily" news on my key stocks.....
Hope this helps a little 
EDITS: Typo(s) |
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drew
Reformation
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Port Orchard, WA
clubs:
 ·wavebroadband
| I was looking for just such a chart for NOVL.
I wasn't seeing any way to show earnings reports on the chart(s) at Yahoo to see waht the run up was...
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drew
Reformation
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Port Orchard, WA
clubs: | Found the information (indirectly) using google.com/finance and their chart. There wasn't much of a run... |
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aliasrlz
Premium
join:2000-09-01
the world
1 edit | reply to drew
said by drew  :I was looking for just such a chart for NOVL. I wasn't seeing any way to show earnings reports on the chart(s) at Yahoo to see waht the run up was... You can use this link as well, though they don't have the next earnings date correct. Seems NOVL had a good earnings surprise last report.
I am going to check out Google Finance ...never hurts to have additional links and information
EDIT: Forgot to give you the link: »www.zacks.com/research/report.ph···s&t=NOVL |
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aliasrlz
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the world
1 edit | reply to drew
said by drew :Found the information (indirectly) using google.com/finance and their chart. There wasn't much of a run... Well, some stocks don't move much. The big movers tend to be the "popular" heavily owned (& pricey) stocks, unfortunately. If they do move up, it is usually weeks BEFORE earnings, which is why I try to buy 2-3 weeks prior to the date....... A lot of people get in the "week of" or "day of" and can get burned or caught bagholding .......
EDIT: Did you check the price 2-3 weeks before their last report? It should tell you the how much it moved UP prior to the report..... |
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drew
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Port Orchard, WA
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·wavebroadband
1 edit | »www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&c···L&ntsp=0
That's the chart.
Edit: They reported what appears to be after the closing bell on 8/27.
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aliasrlz
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1 edit | Yeah, it was not a good earnings run, unless .25 cent move in 2 weeks (if you got out in time) is good enough.
»finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=NOVL&a=···2009&g=d
It is not one I would personally play...
EDIT: Seems Aug 17th was the best time to buy, about 10 days before earnings....but you didn't get much out of it unless you bought 1000's of shares..... |
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drew
Reformation
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join:2002-07-10
Port Orchard, WA
clubs:
·wavebroadband
| I think it wise to paper trade it and sit it out with the real money. See what happens.
Going through companies reporting earning before Jan. 1 (err 3rd week in Dec. actually because Yahoo doesn't have listings past then) there's no other tech company doing the same except HP as you mentioned...
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aliasrlz
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the world | .....and RIMM |
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drew
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Port Orchard, WA
clubs:
·wavebroadband
2 edits | There's no way I could touch RIMM (1k won't do anything w/40+ shares.) and the same with HPQ.
Say I bought not at a low point, per-say, but not at the peak of the run on HPQ, with $1k, I'd have made a whopping ~$53. While not nothing, is the risk worth the possible very mediocre reward.
Trading @ e*trade, I'd have made like 25 bucks after commission.
Edit to say the hypothetical above is HPQ leading up to it's Aug 17 filing.
Edit 2: mental math indicated RIMM's last run would've netted a hundred bucks. so 75 after fees...
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aliasrlz
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2 edits | said by drew :There's no way I could touch RIMM (1k won't do anything w/40+ shares.) and the same with HPQ. Say I bought not at a low point, per-say, but not at the peak of the run on HPQ, with $1k, I'd have made a whopping ~$53. While not nothing, is the risk worth the possible very mediocre reward. Trading @ e*trade, I'd have made like 25 bucks after commission. Edit to say the hypothetical above is HPQ leading up to it's Aug 17 filing. Edit 2: mental math indicated RIMM's last run would've netted a hundred bucks. so 75 after fees... Set your target on $5 and under stocks....... You will have play the speculative stocks, because the stocks that will move heavily are expensive (pricey) stocks.
I'm NOT suggesting anything.......but you can buy a ton of shares of penny stock, but be careful of which one you choose, and get out on any serious downtrend. SIRI at that .51-.55 cent/per share dip would have been a nice play for you. You can also look at some of the stocks others have suggested here that are $5 and under ..........but that is at your own risk, and have been suggested by others (DCTH FRE FNM EGHT FREE DAC). Some are truly risky , but you have to take that into account.
$75 is ok on a short trade if you are only playing with $1K (almost 10%). Obviously, the more shares you can buy, the more you can make....
EDIT: If any of us knew a $5 and under stock that was going to move up BIG ...we wouldn't be here We would all have invested, got rich, and be on some beach somewhere sipping Pina Coladas 
EDIT(s): Other - typos. |
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drew
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Port Orchard, WA
clubs:
·wavebroadband
| Interesting system if you think about it. To mitigate some of the risk in investing in the market, you need to pickup non speculative stocks which are usually higher cost per share. But if you don't have the cash, you have to go cheap. Cheap is risk.
Interesting....
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aliasrlz
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join:2000-09-01
the world
| said by drew :Interesting system if you think about it. To mitigate some of the risk in investing in the market, you need to pickup non speculative stocks which are usually higher cost per share. But if you don't have the cash, you have to go cheap. Cheap is risk. Interesting.... Very true.....that is the conundrum of it all....... |
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aliasrlz
Premium
join:2000-09-01
the world | reply to drew
FYI:
»www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks···id=yhoof |
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aliasrlz
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join:2000-09-01
the world
| reply to aliasrlz
Morning all
Watching SIRI in premarket. They beat on expectations - eps, revenue, an added subscribers. UP in PM (premarket), but may be just a short squeeze. Hope it holds |
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deft0nez
Exit 2pac, Enter Makaveli
join:2001-07-12
westside
clubs: | morning,
Does siri have to be above $1 before a certain date or else it'll get delisted from nasdaq?
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aliasrlz
Premium
join:2000-09-01
the world
| said by deft0nez :morning, Does siri have to be above $1 before a certain date or else it'll get delisted from nasdaq? Yes. I believe they were given until March 2010 (not sure of the exact date), but Mel K (CEO) stated on CNBC this morning that they are working with the SEC for an exception to the rule for their company due to their $2B market cap. Most penny stocks do not have the market cap anywhere near Sirius XM, the revenue, shares, or potential. |
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aliasrlz
Premium
join:2000-09-01
the world
| reply to aliasrlz
FYI, still in both stocks right now. SIRI never hit my exit price of .70 or above, and by the time I selected a 2nd exit, it had fallen below that......... I'm still making money (GREEN), but when I am "undecided" about what to do, I am learning to just sit still for a bit...... This could be good or bad thing, but making abrupt , sudden, or panic decisions always (IMHO) turn out bad....... I'll sit a bit, unless it hits my exit price in AH, lol |
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IcEr3K
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join:2001-01-19
Los Angeles, CA
clubs:
1 edit | NVIDIA 3Q Rev $903.2M >NVDA
Last update: 11/5/2009 4:23:20 PM
Nvidia Sees 4Q Rev Up 2% Vs 3Q >NVDA
Looks like NVDA is going up AH |
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aliasrlz
Premium
join:2000-09-01
the world
1 edit | said by IcEr3K :NVIDIA 3Q Rev $903.2M >NVDA Last update: 11/5/2009 4:23:20 PM Nvidia Sees 4Q Rev Up 2% Vs 3Q >NVDA Looks like NVDA is going up AH Yup, up 6% in AH .....not such a rotten trade after all, and may hold until late AH to see where it goes
EDIT: They beat on eps, revenue, and margins are good. |
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