Which Telecom Giants Will Merge Next? > Comcast & Charter & then TWC later

Comcast & Charter & then TWC later

I'm thinking the same thing. I'll bet Cox stays independent though, as do a lot of smaller cable providers. Any rural areas that Comcast buys from Charter and doesn't want go to Suddenlink or Windjammer.

I see Comcast taking TWC first. Charter is in the process of a bail out and back in the black. TWC would be an easier integration for comcast and less new cable to pull to make everything gel

But if CC gets Charter for pennies on the dollar...

I think we're all in agreement that Comcast will eventually get TWC, Charter, et al.

I don't think Comcast can get Charter for pennies on the dollar though.

Charter is going through the bankruptcy process, and with it comes drama. This time is more acute because the plan submitted by Charter in the debt-for-equity swap seems ridiculously biased towards Paul Allen.

Despite this, Charter will likely emerge from Chapter 11 Reorganization successfully eventually. It's not likely that it will go into Chapter 7 Liquidation, where Comcast/TWC can swoop in.

The debt holders know that Charter is more valuable alive (to be sold later at a higher price) rather than picked apart in a liquidation auction. So no major debt holder is pushing for that.

Charter grew by buying out many smaller cable systems, and used debt to finance it. Charter would actually be profitable if its debt load weren't so high. Servicing that debt pushes them into the red (8% of industry customers, 20% of industry debt).

Not that carrying debt is a bad thing per se, indeed it's a necessity in this business. But it's a thin line.