Synopsis...
high pressure will build the next few days to the northwest of
Arizona...while low pressure dives down into the central Great
Plains. This will leave the Desert Southwest in a very dry northerly flow between the two systems for much of this week. Temperatures will go from well above normal today to near or slightly below normal by midweek. Breezy conditions are also likely Tuesday and Wednesday...mainly during the morning hours. There will be a gradual warm up by the end of the week as high pressure aloft strengthens.

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Discussion...
as of early Monday morning...skies were clear across the County Warning Area under the influence of a dry northwesterly flow aloft. Surface dewpoints were mostly in the 40s over the lower deserts. Infrared/vapor imagery showed a large upper ridge developing along the West Coast...while an upper
low took shape across the northcentral states. Forecast looks to be on the dry side for our area over the next 7 days...with the main weather challenges to affect the aviation/fire weather programs.

Over the next 2-3 days...forecasts forecast the upper ridge to become SW-NE oriented...while the upper low over the northcentral states retrogrades under the upper high center. As the low approaches from the East...Heights fall and surface/low level gradients increase quite a bit. Low/middle level northerly/northeasterly flow between the high and low will usher in very dry airmass to the County Warning Area...with 850mb dewpoints lowering to below minus 12c over most of the County Warning Area by Tuesday afternoon.
Surface dewpoints are forecast to drop into the teens and 20s over the lower deserts as well. Of course...with the increase in low level gradients...breezy to windy conditions will set up mainly over the eastern County Warning Area Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong low level winds may set up some low level wind shear issues over the central deserts Tuesday...and the very dry air combined with the increased wind will increase fire danger. Under generally sunny skies...and as heights fall aloft...cooler air will advect into the County Warning Area leading to a marked cooling trend Tuesday into Wednesday. Today will see maximum temperatures well above seasonal normals...with a high of 105 forecast for Phoenix as compared to a normal of just 98. By Wednesday highs over the lower deserts will be mostly in the 90s...with the high at Phoenix to fall to 96.

Thursday into Friday the upper low starts to shift back towards the east...as high pressure again develops aloft near the Pacific northwest coast. As this occurs...heights rebound...and a gradual warming trend begins which will continue into the weekend. Airmass will stay dry through the 7 day period...with mostly clear skies on tap each day.

said by tubbynet :

l would love some totally overcast days to cheer me up. i am depressed when i wake up and see the sun.

q.

said by tubbynet :

apparently we only get hot, or damn hot.

said by RenHoek :

Sure it's a dry heat, but so is my oven, and you don't see me voluntarily sticking my head in there...

said by No_Strings :

Not to mention the glare of the sun of that pasty, white skin can blind a person.

said by No_Strings :

I never leave home without my Oakleys.

said by wenter99 :

Sunglasses AND a Chapstick... never leave home without either of 'em in this part of the country.

said by needforspeed59 :

gettin' some rain here this morning in the northwest valley! What the what?

said by Jet :

Grab your laptop, go out side and surf DSLR.

said by jaykaykay :

We love it here. Been here since '70 and haven't found any place we like better. Living here is simply a mindset.