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HD is still compressed a LOT »
This is a sub-selection from Keeping pace

psx_defector

join:2001-06-09
Allen, TX
kudos:1
reply to Boogeyman

Re: Keeping pace

said by Boogeyman:

I'm more concerned with his obsession with having glass fibers inserted rectally.
Well, you know those Asians and their freaky ways.

I guess the metaphor was lost on people.

While piracy was a factor in the jump from 56k to broadband, it was a very small one.
One word for you, Napster.

The only reason why I went to high speed back in '98 was for warez. That 256/64 pipe kicked ass.

Right now, BitTorrent and it's derivative uses is the killer app driving bigger and bigger pipes. The ease of use drives more and more idiots to sucking down bandwidth. Back in the day, warez was more of an art and required a bit of knowledge, like knowing how to combine news group parts, compression schemes, and multipart archives. Now, you go to Mininova, download a file, and everything comes in.

As more and more pirates get online, they start saturating the pipe. They leave it on while they are away, running full boar all the time. Video, even in it's most crazy uncompressed size, doesn't compare. At least video stops sometimes.

backness

join:2005-07-08
K2P OW2
So you have identified 2 issues:

1) More and more people are into online content
2) Existing DSL is not fast enough for peoples needs

The fact that there are limited sources for fairly priced online goods is a misnomer.

As far as I can see, people need a quality connection with no cap to be able to have free access to the content that will eventually come online. Without a state of the art network, what you are saying is true. With a state of the art network a new marketplace forms and content producers can interact directly with their customers. We can remove the whole hollywood value chain model and replace it with direct content delivery.

The linch pin of the whole concept relies on state of the art networks.

psx_defector

join:2001-06-09
Allen, TX
kudos:1
said by backness:

So you have identified 2 issues:

1) More and more people are into online content
Pirated online content. Don't believe for a second everyone is only streaming Hulu 24x7, both up and down.

2) Existing DSL is not fast enough for peoples needs
It's plenty fast for people's current needs with regards to legit online content. You don't need to download a song from iTunes in less than 1 second, you can't stream the video from Hulu any faster than what the video plays at. Where the "demand" is coming from is people "demanding" they download 100GB worth of Steam patches and games, download the song from iTunes in 1 second, and watch full screen HD on three TVs.

People always quote the "Oh, well my family will do all that together." People forget that the majority of the subscribers out there are us single people. Do we need 15 HD streams coming in?

As far as I can see, people need a quality connection with no cap to be able to have free access to the content that will eventually come online. Without a state of the art network, what you are saying is true. With a state of the art network a new marketplace forms and content producers can interact directly with their customers. We can remove the whole hollywood value chain model and replace it with direct content delivery.
Considering that the content makers are NOT leaning that way, why spend all that money on building something they don't want to use and the majority of users don't need? People act like online content will change every facet of our lives, online social networking is where we will find our next wife, and CuFme will be how we procreate. It just ain't gonna happen, not in our lifetimes.

Despite what you think, the consumer doesn't control the way content comes to you. Hence why piracy, pirates in it for the content and not the ones who are trying to turn a buck, is a big draw. The providers of content will never concede to giving away their product. Honest users will always be there, so their revenue stream will never dry up. They will never stop in stopping piracy. Just as they will never stop piracy.

backness

join:2005-07-08
K2P OW2
Because a computer will only ever need 64k of memory.

bsoft

join:2004-03-28
Boulder, CO

1 recommendation

reply to psx_defector
Pirated online content. Don't believe for a second everyone is only streaming Hulu 24x7, both up and down.
Go look at actual studies of bandwidth usage rather than what the MPAA/RIAA is spewing. P2P is not the #1 bandwidth category, Internet video (primarily YouTube) is.

Maybe you don't use MLB.tv, CNN's online video, CBS.com, Hulu, Netflix, iTunes, Blockbuster Online Access, or YouTube. But the stats say that there are a hell of a lot more people using legal services than pirating. For one thing, it's considerably easier.

It's plenty fast for people's current needs with regards to legit online content. You don't need to download a song from iTunes in less than 1 second, you can't stream the video from Hulu any faster than what the video plays at.
Hulu provides low-resolution, low-bitrate videos because people have shitty DSL connections. Go watch a Blu-ray disc and compare it to Hulu or even Netflix's online "HD". Now tell me why it's unreasonable to want the same level of quality from Internet video.

Where the "demand" is coming from is people "demanding" they download 100GB worth of Steam patches and games, download the song from iTunes in 1 second, and watch full screen HD on three TVs.
Oh, I see, we should buy all of our software in cardboard boxes, wait 20 minutes to download an album, and watch crappy low-resolution Internet video.

People demand better service than they did in 2002. My GPU is easily 50x faster than it was in 2002. My CPU is at least 10x faster (depending on how you consider multicore). I have 16x more memory, 20x more disk space, and a monitor that's twice as large and quadruple the resolution.

So, yeah, do I expect to be able to stream HD video? Yes. Do I expect to be able to download games and other software quickly? Yes. Do I expect to be able to download music without waiting for minutes? Yes.

People always quote the "Oh, well my family will do all that together." People forget that the majority of the subscribers out there are us single people. Do we need 15 HD streams coming in?
No one needs ANY HD streams. What we *want* is an Internet connection where we don't have to think, "Oh crap, I ran out of bandwidth!". Being able to pull Fedora and watch Netflix at the same time would be a start.

Despite what you think, the consumer doesn't control the way content comes to you.
History disagrees. Hollywood fought TV and the VCR. We won. The TV networks fought DVRs. We won. Record companies refused to sell DRM-free music. We won.

Every single time some new technology comes along, the content companies bitch and moan. And then they fold. And of course, the technologies that are supposed to kill them never actually do.

Every time a technological advance is made, someone tries to rain on the parade by claiming that the technology is unnecessary. What would anyone do with a 1GB hard drive? What would anyone do with a 1.5Mbps connection all to themself? What would anyone do with a dual-core CPU?

The thing is, we ALWAYS find a use. Maybe the future is 4x HD resolution, or 3D, or higher color depth. Maybe it's games with better graphics (and larger patches), software as a service, or PCs that boot over the Internet.

The great thing about the Internet is that the people who own the pipes don't get to decide how they are filled. YouTube couldn't have existed in a world of dial-up. Steam doesn't fly on 256k DSL. And Netflix won't be able to stop mailing discs around until we all have 10Mbps+.

We are talking about the end of content distribution as we know it. Now, I don't think that the future of entertainment is teenagers making videos on YouTube. But I do think that you have to be crazy to believe that the future of entertainment is watching one of the 140 channels you subscribe to. The future is anything, anytime. The Internet is the technology that enables that future. That's why 100Mbps matters.