| reply to dogma
Re: Dollar to be dropped as the oil currency by 2018 I think our difference in perception comes from my inclusion of peak oil. I think that peak oil will kill globalization either by making fuel expensive or scarce or by the resulting economic carnage reducing demand. By buying up resources around the world China seems to recognize what is on the horizon while the U.S. continues partying blissfully unaware into the night. The U.S. is heading for a prolonged depression which will decimate our service based economy and thereby reduce demand. Due to an insubstantial economy and utter failure at economic reform, China sees the U.S. consumer receding toward irrelevance. China's economic future lies in the rise of its domestic consumers and diversifying its exports to the world.
U.S. Imports from China through July 2009 shows that instead of increasing at an annual rate of 5.1% between 2007 and 2008, imports are down 7.8% since July 2008 compared to 2008. This is not what China wants. |
